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What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the R

by cm2187 4y ago

What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?

pphysch 4y ago
The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.
- cm2187 4y ago
  Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need ICBM.
  - amelius 4y ago
    They are more difficult to intercept, though.
    - cm2187 4y ago
      The thing with nukes is that unless you think you can intercept 100% of the missile with certainty, the deterrence is there. Particularly with China’s megacities.
  - pphysch 4y ago
    China is big
    - cm2187 4y ago
      All the cities and population are on the coast. You don't threaten to nuke a desert
- monkeydreams 4y ago
  > The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. That would be too late, by definition, for China to invade. The US would likely be very wary of letting their missiles fall into enemy hands. The PRC don't have a huge amount of time to take Taiwan. Their median age at 2020 was 37.5, their projected median age in 2030 is 42.7. For every two years that passes, their current demographic trajectory suggests their median age will grow by 1 year. Unless they wish to fight an "old man" war, with all the societal tensions that arise from essentially sending the only grandchild of four grandparents to their death+, then the PRC need to hurry up and take Taiwan to allow them the force projection into the deep pacific. Otherwise the Chinese century will be delayed another 100 years (or probably longer). +Or the only great-grandchild of eight great-grandparents
missedthecue 4y ago
A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.
- cm2187 4y ago
  Historically, public opinions tend to unite against adversity. If the aim is to gain the public opinions it would be counterproductive. I think the support for Russia in the Ukrainian public opinion is pretty much gone now.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Historically sieges also tend work if conditions become existential, which it will if TW is denied energy and food imports which doesn't even touch on effects of taking out electricity or water infra. UKR can be resupplied via ample land routes and be comfortably defiant. TW's reduced to below subsistence defiance which tend to come with biological timer.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  Quick search: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/ https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-... Which political parties?
- postingawayonhn 4y ago
  China also imports a lot of food and fuel. If China tries to blockade Taiwan I'm sure the west will look to blockade China.
- lumost 4y ago
  A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.
throw1234651234 4y ago
Systems firing missiles are also vulnerable to missiles. That's not a sarcastic response, with maybe the exception of very short-range stuff - Javelin, Konkurs, etc. Those would be vulnerable to thermal smoke counter-measures too.
anonkogudhyfhhf 4y ago
Honestly Taiwan should go nuclear. It might be there only solution
- asah 4y ago
  Assuming they haven't secretly done this somehow, I assume the only reason is that Western powers have forbade it (i.e. made non-proliferation a requirement of their support).
- ipnon 4y ago
  PRC would suddenly become vehemently interested in NPT if this occurred. It would instantly trigger war.
- NonEUCitizen 4y ago
  The "friend" of Taiwan, USA, put a stop to it. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502
richardw 4y ago
> China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes We're watching warfare change right now. There are many paths to success for China, given enough attention and focus. Just one: 100 million drones to deal with all the fixed defences, and then you arrive to negotiate once you've repeatedly overwhelmed the enemy for 6 months. We've spent the last few decades helping China build the biggest manufacturing engine in history, and Ukraine has shown us what "cheap and accurate" can do. No doubt in my mind that China will be able to innovate further once it has a very good reason to do so. If the West tries to copy this, surely it's mostly relying on chips produced in Taiwan? Give that 6 months, because I'm pretty sure China can restrict chip flow faster than the West can build backup capability. And once China owns that chip production it could easily result in 20 years (or indefinite) tech dominance. Sure, experts will be fleeing in droves but factories and supply chains don't just spring up overnight.
- cm2187 4y ago
  On drones, fair points but a missile is easy to hide. I suspect those chip factories would have been destroyed before China takes control of them. China’s leverage is more about denying access to those chips to the west.
  - richardw 4y ago
    Outcomes aren't binary. You can burn a few factories and many will escape but the vast majority of humans will want to get on with life and rebuild the jobs they had. "It's been two years of no work and little food. China offers you a great salary to do what you did before the war. Do you A) Say no! B) Feed your kid and rebuild the factory."
- runsWphotons 4y ago
  I mean TSMC would likely burn everything to the ground. It seems more like no one would have the chips, until the US onshores the capability, which seems much less than 20 years away.
- infamia 4y ago
  China simply does not have the amphibious capabilities for an invasion let alone sustainment of an invading force. All the estimates I've looked at says they won't have that capability for around another ten years or so. A blockade favors the west and neighborhing friendly powers like Japan, since that would give it time to bring its mass to bear. All that talk about drones ignores that there are easy hard counters to drones (I.e. electronic warfare). They're not some unstoppable force. They're like any other weapon, they have their uses, but there are no silver bullets.

by cm2187 4y ago

pphysch 4y ago

The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.

cm2187 4y ago
Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need ICBM.
- amelius 4y ago
  They are more difficult to intercept, though.
  - cm2187 4y ago
    The thing with nukes is that unless you think you can intercept 100% of the missile with certainty, the deterrence is there. Particularly with China’s megacities.
- pphysch 4y ago
  China is big
  - cm2187 4y ago
    All the cities and population are on the coast. You don't threaten to nuke a desert
monkeydreams 4y ago
> The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. That would be too late, by definition, for China to invade. The US would likely be very wary of letting their missiles fall into enemy hands. The PRC don't have a huge amount of time to take Taiwan. Their median age at 2020 was 37.5, their projected median age in 2030 is 42.7. For every two years that passes, their current demographic trajectory suggests their median age will grow by 1 year. Unless they wish to fight an "old man" war, with all the societal tensions that arise from essentially sending the only grandchild of four grandparents to their death+, then the PRC need to hurry up and take Taiwan to allow them the force projection into the deep pacific. Otherwise the Chinese century will be delayed another 100 years (or probably longer). +Or the only great-grandchild of eight great-grandparents

missedthecue 4y ago

A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.

cm2187 4y ago
Historically, public opinions tend to unite against adversity. If the aim is to gain the public opinions it would be counterproductive. I think the support for Russia in the Ukrainian public opinion is pretty much gone now.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Historically sieges also tend work if conditions become existential, which it will if TW is denied energy and food imports which doesn't even touch on effects of taking out electricity or water infra. UKR can be resupplied via ample land routes and be comfortably defiant. TW's reduced to below subsistence defiance which tend to come with biological timer.
NicoJuicy 4y ago
Quick search: https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/ https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-... Which political parties?
postingawayonhn 4y ago
China also imports a lot of food and fuel. If China tries to blockade Taiwan I'm sure the west will look to blockade China.
lumost 4y ago
A blockade is illegal. One targeting food could easily invite Japan or the US to run the blockade. It would be difficult for the PRC to blockade the wayward side of Taiwan from both air and sea provided direct US/Japanese intervention to maintain sea lanes.

throw1234651234 4y ago

Systems firing missiles are also vulnerable to missiles. That's not a sarcastic response, with maybe the exception of very short-range stuff - Javelin, Konkurs, etc. Those would be vulnerable to thermal smoke counter-measures too.

anonkogudhyfhhf 4y ago

Honestly Taiwan should go nuclear. It might be there only solution

asah 4y ago
Assuming they haven't secretly done this somehow, I assume the only reason is that Western powers have forbade it (i.e. made non-proliferation a requirement of their support).
ipnon 4y ago
PRC would suddenly become vehemently interested in NPT if this occurred. It would instantly trigger war.
NonEUCitizen 4y ago
The "friend" of Taiwan, USA, put a stop to it. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39252502

richardw 4y ago

> China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes We're watching warfare change right now. There are many paths to success for China, given enough attention and focus. Just one: 100 million drones to deal with all the fixed defences, and then you arrive to negotiate once you've repeatedly overwhelmed the enemy for 6 months. We've spent the last few decades helping China build the biggest manufacturing engine in history, and Ukraine has shown us what "cheap and accurate" can do. No doubt in my mind that China will be able to innovate further once it has a very good reason to do so. If the West tries to copy this, surely it's mostly relying on chips produced in Taiwan? Give that 6 months, because I'm pretty sure China can restrict chip flow faster than the West can build backup capability. And once China owns that chip production it could easily result in 20 years (or indefinite) tech dominance. Sure, experts will be fleeing in droves but factories and supply chains don't just spring up overnight.

cm2187 4y ago
On drones, fair points but a missile is easy to hide. I suspect those chip factories would have been destroyed before China takes control of them. China’s leverage is more about denying access to those chips to the west.
- richardw 4y ago
  Outcomes aren't binary. You can burn a few factories and many will escape but the vast majority of humans will want to get on with life and rebuild the jobs they had. "It's been two years of no work and little food. China offers you a great salary to do what you did before the war. Do you A) Say no! B) Feed your kid and rebuild the factory."
runsWphotons 4y ago
I mean TSMC would likely burn everything to the ground. It seems more like no one would have the chips, until the US onshores the capability, which seems much less than 20 years away.
infamia 4y ago
China simply does not have the amphibious capabilities for an invasion let alone sustainment of an invading force. All the estimates I've looked at says they won't have that capability for around another ten years or so. A blockade favors the west and neighborhing friendly powers like Japan, since that would give it time to bring its mass to bear. All that talk about drones ignores that there are easy hard counters to drones (I.e. electronic warfare). They're not some unstoppable force. They're like any other weapon, they have their uses, but there are no silver bullets.