11 ms·

Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? Or is this just usual Russian incompetence? This maybe news cycle bias, but since the Ukraine war, and

Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? Or is this just usual Russian incompetence? This maybe news cycle bias, but since the Ukraine war, and threat of Russian pulling out of ISS program, these malfunctions have been more visible. Is anyone tracking these and similar incidents publicly?

dgacmu 4y ago
It seems more likely that we're seeing the effects of sanctions or internal choices about how to allocate resources in the face of a huge demand for war production.
nordsieck 4y ago
> Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? What possible reason would the Russians have to sabotage their own side of their won space craft? The only real outcomes would be either having to launch an additional spacecraft to get their people back or suffering the indignity of the US bringing their people back on a US vehicle. If they don't want to be there, it'd be pretty easy to cite something about US/NATO involvement in Ukraine and just abandon ship. They don't need some sort of elaborate gimmick which also happens to paint them in a pretty incompetent light, in order to do that.
- hutzlibu 4y ago
  Well, sabotage could also have been done by the other side, to point out the russian incompetence and drive them out even earlier, but the risk/reward does not make this likely.
  - nordsieck 4y ago
    > Well, sabotage could also have been done by the other side, to point out the russian incompetence and drive them out even earlier, but the risk/reward does not make this likely. 1. NASA wants Russia to maintain a presence on the ISS. Many of the necessary functions for operating the ISS are spread across both the US (international) and Russian sides. If the Russians left, that would dramatically complicate operations. 2. How would the US even get to the spacecraft in question? It's not like someone could casually take a stroll around the station and pop in a hole with a drift and hammer. 3. Even if the US could access the spacecraft in question, it's not obvious to me that US Astronauts would actually do the deed instead of blowing a whistle. It's not like they're CIA operatives. There's a great deal of camaraderie between the personnel of each side.
    - khuey 4y ago
      4. The Soyuz that had the first coolant leak had an American astronaut on board. Why would the US risk its own people?
      - dmurray 4y ago
        That seems like the weakest argument against it. If we're talking about the kind of shadowy secret agents who will sabotage a $150 billion project (most of which was paid by their own side) as a manoeuvre in a complicated geopolitical game, surely they're not above sacrificing a few innocent lives for it.
    - upsidesinclude 4y ago
      >NASA wants Russia to maintain a presence NASA is not the DOD >drift and hammer Adding incompatible ionic compounds causes material failure >It's not like they're CIA operatives Hmm that's a pretty strange assumption to make.
    - wongarsu 4y ago
      NASA isn't in the business of sabotaging, that would be the CIA. That means that 1. NASA cares about keeping the ISS alive, the CIA might have other priorities and care more about how this humiliates Russia much more than NASA 2. I would be more surprised if there were no CIA agents in the manufacturing pipeline of Soyuz spacecraft, never mind the launch site. Just strategically weaken some parts so they fail in orbit. 3. So let's use CIA operatives I'm not saying it was the CIA. The CIA has motive and capability to do it. But it could as well be Russian corruption somewhere in the supply chain, or just bad luck
      - juve1996 4y ago
        Seems unlikely, There's little to gain from this. There are far larger propaganda victories already that actually matter to the populace.
      - ufmace 4y ago
        Seems like a pretty wacky thing to do IMO. Maybe the CIA does have some operatives in the Russian aerospace industry. But why would any such operatives risk exposing themselves by sabotaging hardware going to the ISS? Just for a rather contrived plan to make the Russians look incompetent while putting American astronauts at risk too? Surely the CIA can come up with better ways to make the Russians look incompetent without putting carefully established agents at risk. Or they can just do nothing, since the Russians seem to have little trouble displaying ineptitude without any assistance.
  - LarryMullins 4y ago
    Sabotage might also be performed by a disgruntled / disturbed worker, not working for either 'side'.
- latchkey 4y ago
  > What possible reason would the Russians have to sabotage their own side of their won space craft? Some people believe the Nord pipeline blowup was self-sabotage. Update: I did not say I believe this myself. I'm just using this as a counter argument to say that the reasons might not be obvious at first glance and people tend to believe all sorts of things.
  - karpierz 4y ago
    ... because it gets them out of contractual obligations to deliver gas.
    - bigdict 4y ago
      But… they want to sell gas.
      - bandyaboot 4y ago
        Right up until they prefer to deliver retribution by withholding gas.
        bigdict 4y ago
        Right, but the weapon is not the cutting of the supply, it's the threat. The fear that comes with uncertainty. There is no uncertainty when the pipeline is damaged irreparably.
        bandyaboot 4y ago
        Russia had already been increasingly cutting gas supplies to Europe before the Nordstream pipeline was sabatoged. They weren’t just threatening.
        bigdict 4y ago
        If that's true, why blow up your own infrastructure when you can just cut the supply?
- bombolo 4y ago
  > What possible reason would the Russians have to sabotage their own side of their won space craft? Same reason why they blew up their own pipeline (they didn't but our propaganda must paint them as complete morons).
- philwelch 4y ago
  “The Russians”? No. “Some guy in Russia?” Lots of reasons why some guy in Russia might be mad and try and sabotage a Russian spacecraft. OTOH, Russia also has a sordid history of unsubstantiated accusations of sabotage to cover up for their own incompetence.
rjsw 4y ago
Wasn't the previous leak down to a micrometeorite strike?
- kibwen 4y ago
  Wondering whether Kessler Syndrome is kicking in earlier than we anticipated.
- sschueller 4y ago
  Usually the cause of most leaks on ISS.
hunter-gatherer 4y ago
Roscosmos sabotaging its own cosmonauts? I'd also be more deliberate with throwing around sound bites like "usual Russian incompetence". While I agree with there is a lot of cultural and political incompetence in Russia (and elsewhere) some incredibly advanced science and engineering has come fro Russia.
- fastball 4y ago
  Didn't most of the advanced science and engineering come from the USSR?
  - seanstev 4y ago
    USSR =! Russia. Majority of main advances came from the satellites, such as Ukrainians (Glushko, Korolev, chelomei, etc.).
    - m4rtink 4y ago
      Not to mention some of the early tech having German origin (same in the West).
      - hunter-gatherer 4y ago
        I wasn't referring to the USSR. Had I wanted to refer to the USSR, I would have typed "USSR". My point is that the West doesn't have a monopoly on great ideas and innovation. The existing Russian (and others) state is not a conglomerate of incompetence, and has plenty of advanced engineering feats under her belt. I am suggesting it is not just disingenuous, but unwise to be so dismissive of Russian capabilities, especially when the geopolitical atmospher is the way it is right now.
    - bilqis 4y ago
      Majority of main advances came from cooperation and how education, science and engineering was organised and funded. So all achievements are Soviet achievements, not Russian/Ukrainian/Georgian/etc, saying otherwise has been a common political tool of nationalist in all post-ussr countries.
samwillis 4y ago
> is this just usual Russian incompetence? I don't think there is an impression of that or really ever has been. Russia has successfully launched humans into space more regularly and at a lower cost than the US for the last 60 years. (Well until the last few years) I think it's more likely that this is just an occurrence of something akin to the birthday paradox and sometimes things just happen. It's the narrative due to the current (horrendous) political direction of Russian foreign policy that then colours the interpretation of these events. -- Edit: Your comment has been downvoted significantly and was briefly "dead" I think unfairly, and while I disagree with part of it and don't believe the sabotage hypothesis, you are asking the questions that most people will be asking. The reply's are a worthwhile discussion in my view, and so I vouched for it.
- abracadaniel 4y ago
  It wasn’t that long ago they drilled a hole in a Soyuz, then patched it with epoxy and sent it up anyway, only for the epoxy to come out and cause a leak.
  - fsh 4y ago
    Also not that long ago, they tried launching a Proton M which had the angular velocity sensors installed upside down: https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culprit https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culpri... Looks like decades of rampant corruption and political violence are not exactly good for high-tech industry. Who would have thought?
    - LarryMullins 4y ago
      Once in KSP Iinstalled MechJeb (a modded autopilot component) upsidedown and my rocket failed in precisely this way, trying to make a u-turn right off the launch pad. Pretty funny to see it happen IRL, since nobody got hurt.
    - wcoenen 4y ago
      I don't think you can attribute this failure to a political system. Space is hard. NASA's Genesis sample return capsule also failed due to an upside-down sensor[1]. Fun fact about the Proton M failure: the sensor was designed so that it could only be mounted correctly, but apparently it had been forced in the wrong way somehow. Possibly with a hammer. From [2]: By July 13, investigators simulated the improper installation of the DUS angular velocity sensors on the actual hardware. As it turned out, it would be very difficult to do but not impossible. To achieve that personnel would need to use procedures and instruments not certified either by the design documentation or the installation instructions. As a result, the plate holding the sensors sustained damage. Yet, when the hardware recovered from the accident was delivered to GKNPTs Khrunichev, it was discovered that the nature of the damage to the plate had almost exactly matched the simulated version. [1] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9331-crashed-spacecraft-was-faster-cheaper-but-not-better/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9331-crashed-spacecra... [2] https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culprit https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culpri...
ezconnect 4y ago
That's like saying the Russian blown up the Nordstream pipeline to sabotage their own revenue stream.
- abracadaniel 4y ago
  A revenue stream that could only flow again if Putin were kicked out. Hard to imagine who might want a giant price on Putin’s head taken out.
- simion314 4y ago
  Many do this mistake to consider "Russia" instead of just Putin, those two entities interests do not align, so shit that might not make sense for Russia to do might make perfect sense for Putin to do. We had the cases where instead of admitting that their warship was hit Putin regime pushed the narrative that it was just Russian incompetence. So for sure it makes no sense for Russia to want their popes sabotage, but I am not sure about Putin, I can't understand his thinking, wither I am missing some information or his mind got corrupted by his own propaganda.
  - bilqis 4y ago
    It’s also a mistake to think that Putin is some kind of Czar with absolute ultimate power.
    - simion314 4y ago
      Please tell me who can stop Putin? - the chances that the parliament can do it are zero - the chances that the army can do it are small sicne he put in charge his incompetent but loyal people and has created his own military branch for his personal protection - the chance that public protestsc could do it are also small China has more influence on what Putin ca n\t do then Russians.
      - bilqis 4y ago
        Putin doesn’t exist on his own and doesn’t act on his own. He has support from FSB, from capital, from right people there and there, he has influence. He can be removed and influenced by many many people. But you’re right with your assessments that nor parliament nor public protests can do shit with Putin and his goons.
duxup 4y ago
I have trouble imagining Russians wanting their own spacecraft to look bad. It just doesn’t make sense.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
HybridCurve 4y ago
It's a government space agency in a kleptocratic state, what other result would you expect? Roscosmos has been under scrutiny for corruption and fraud for some time. I don't even think you could even attribute it to incompetence (on behalf of the professionals) because if you keep reducing funds and resources problems are going to manifest regardless.
justinator 4y ago
I think resources in general are getting a little hard to find in Russia, especially for things like space ships. Most likely those resources are being diverted into making missiles, either officially, or through black market channels. Russia will fight until Moscow falls, it not a matter of if a Soyuz or two doesn't come home.
Kukumber 4y ago
why would russia sabotage their own space station? it would be a job for the US , just like with nordstream2, they were never able to make one and china recently made their own (smaller), so they are maybe jealous, or it does give the impression that Russia is a scientifically advanced country, that would go against the current dogma? let's take a step back and appreciate how the west was never able to put something habitable into orbit for this long impressive
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
sigil 4y ago
As the resolver for a Manifold prediction market, I've been following this story closely for the last couple months. [0] Back in December, HN user JanSolo wondered if the three astronauts assigned to the leaking Soyuz MS-22 might be evacuated via the Dragon Capsule. [1] Since the default evacuation plan was to send the next Soyuz MS-23 up early and unmanned, Dragon seemed unlikely...unless, of course, the coolant leak was due to a design or manufacturing defect affecting other Roscocosmos craft. This latest Progress MS-21 news makes the defect hypothesis much more likely, in my view. A joint NASA-Roscocosmos investigation found that the original MS-22 coolant leak was caused by a micrometeroid about 1mm in diameter. I don't expect them to walk that back, so perhaps the defect makes these coolant lines more susceptible to puncture than before? [0] https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astronauts-assig https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astrona... [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33995082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33995082

dgacmu 4y ago

It seems more likely that we're seeing the effects of sanctions or internal choices about how to allocate resources in the face of a huge demand for war production.

nordsieck 4y ago

> Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? What possible reason would the Russians have to sabotage their own side of their won space craft? The only real outcomes would be either having to launch an additional spacecraft to get their people back or suffering the indignity of the US bringing their people back on a US vehicle. If they don't want to be there, it'd be pretty easy to cite something about US/NATO involvement in Ukraine and just abandon ship. They don't need some sort of elaborate gimmick which also happens to paint them in a pretty incompetent light, in order to do that.

hutzlibu 4y ago
Well, sabotage could also have been done by the other side, to point out the russian incompetence and drive them out even earlier, but the risk/reward does not make this likely.
- nordsieck 4y ago
  > Well, sabotage could also have been done by the other side, to point out the russian incompetence and drive them out even earlier, but the risk/reward does not make this likely. 1. NASA wants Russia to maintain a presence on the ISS. Many of the necessary functions for operating the ISS are spread across both the US (international) and Russian sides. If the Russians left, that would dramatically complicate operations. 2. How would the US even get to the spacecraft in question? It's not like someone could casually take a stroll around the station and pop in a hole with a drift and hammer. 3. Even if the US could access the spacecraft in question, it's not obvious to me that US Astronauts would actually do the deed instead of blowing a whistle. It's not like they're CIA operatives. There's a great deal of camaraderie between the personnel of each side.
  - khuey 4y ago
    4. The Soyuz that had the first coolant leak had an American astronaut on board. Why would the US risk its own people?
    - dmurray 4y ago
      That seems like the weakest argument against it. If we're talking about the kind of shadowy secret agents who will sabotage a $150 billion project (most of which was paid by their own side) as a manoeuvre in a complicated geopolitical game, surely they're not above sacrificing a few innocent lives for it.
  - upsidesinclude 4y ago
    >NASA wants Russia to maintain a presence NASA is not the DOD >drift and hammer Adding incompatible ionic compounds causes material failure >It's not like they're CIA operatives Hmm that's a pretty strange assumption to make.
  - wongarsu 4y ago
    NASA isn't in the business of sabotaging, that would be the CIA. That means that 1. NASA cares about keeping the ISS alive, the CIA might have other priorities and care more about how this humiliates Russia much more than NASA 2. I would be more surprised if there were no CIA agents in the manufacturing pipeline of Soyuz spacecraft, never mind the launch site. Just strategically weaken some parts so they fail in orbit. 3. So let's use CIA operatives I'm not saying it was the CIA. The CIA has motive and capability to do it. But it could as well be Russian corruption somewhere in the supply chain, or just bad luck
    - juve1996 4y ago
      Seems unlikely, There's little to gain from this. There are far larger propaganda victories already that actually matter to the populace.
    - ufmace 4y ago
      Seems like a pretty wacky thing to do IMO. Maybe the CIA does have some operatives in the Russian aerospace industry. But why would any such operatives risk exposing themselves by sabotaging hardware going to the ISS? Just for a rather contrived plan to make the Russians look incompetent while putting American astronauts at risk too? Surely the CIA can come up with better ways to make the Russians look incompetent without putting carefully established agents at risk. Or they can just do nothing, since the Russians seem to have little trouble displaying ineptitude without any assistance.
- LarryMullins 4y ago
  Sabotage might also be performed by a disgruntled / disturbed worker, not working for either 'side'.
latchkey 4y ago
> What possible reason would the Russians have to sabotage their own side of their won space craft? Some people believe the Nord pipeline blowup was self-sabotage. Update: I did not say I believe this myself. I'm just using this as a counter argument to say that the reasons might not be obvious at first glance and people tend to believe all sorts of things.
- karpierz 4y ago
  ... because it gets them out of contractual obligations to deliver gas.
  - bigdict 4y ago
    But… they want to sell gas.
    - bandyaboot 4y ago
      Right up until they prefer to deliver retribution by withholding gas.
      - bigdict 4y ago
        Right, but the weapon is not the cutting of the supply, it's the threat. The fear that comes with uncertainty. There is no uncertainty when the pipeline is damaged irreparably.
        bandyaboot 4y ago
        Russia had already been increasingly cutting gas supplies to Europe before the Nordstream pipeline was sabatoged. They weren’t just threatening.
        bigdict 4y ago
        If that's true, why blow up your own infrastructure when you can just cut the supply?
bombolo 4y ago
> What possible reason would the Russians have to sabotage their own side of their won space craft? Same reason why they blew up their own pipeline (they didn't but our propaganda must paint them as complete morons).
philwelch 4y ago
“The Russians”? No. “Some guy in Russia?” Lots of reasons why some guy in Russia might be mad and try and sabotage a Russian spacecraft. OTOH, Russia also has a sordid history of unsubstantiated accusations of sabotage to cover up for their own incompetence.

rjsw 4y ago

Wasn't the previous leak down to a micrometeorite strike?

kibwen 4y ago
Wondering whether Kessler Syndrome is kicking in earlier than we anticipated.
sschueller 4y ago
Usually the cause of most leaks on ISS.

hunter-gatherer 4y ago

Roscosmos sabotaging its own cosmonauts? I'd also be more deliberate with throwing around sound bites like "usual Russian incompetence". While I agree with there is a lot of cultural and political incompetence in Russia (and elsewhere) some incredibly advanced science and engineering has come fro Russia.

fastball 4y ago
Didn't most of the advanced science and engineering come from the USSR?
- seanstev 4y ago
  USSR =! Russia. Majority of main advances came from the satellites, such as Ukrainians (Glushko, Korolev, chelomei, etc.).
  - m4rtink 4y ago
    Not to mention some of the early tech having German origin (same in the West).
    - hunter-gatherer 4y ago
      I wasn't referring to the USSR. Had I wanted to refer to the USSR, I would have typed "USSR". My point is that the West doesn't have a monopoly on great ideas and innovation. The existing Russian (and others) state is not a conglomerate of incompetence, and has plenty of advanced engineering feats under her belt. I am suggesting it is not just disingenuous, but unwise to be so dismissive of Russian capabilities, especially when the geopolitical atmospher is the way it is right now.
  - bilqis 4y ago
    Majority of main advances came from cooperation and how education, science and engineering was organised and funded. So all achievements are Soviet achievements, not Russian/Ukrainian/Georgian/etc, saying otherwise has been a common political tool of nationalist in all post-ussr countries.

samwillis 4y ago

> is this just usual Russian incompetence? I don't think there is an impression of that or really ever has been. Russia has successfully launched humans into space more regularly and at a lower cost than the US for the last 60 years. (Well until the last few years) I think it's more likely that this is just an occurrence of something akin to the birthday paradox and sometimes things just happen. It's the narrative due to the current (horrendous) political direction of Russian foreign policy that then colours the interpretation of these events. -- Edit: Your comment has been downvoted significantly and was briefly "dead" I think unfairly, and while I disagree with part of it and don't believe the sabotage hypothesis, you are asking the questions that most people will be asking. The reply's are a worthwhile discussion in my view, and so I vouched for it.

abracadaniel 4y ago
It wasn’t that long ago they drilled a hole in a Soyuz, then patched it with epoxy and sent it up anyway, only for the epoxy to come out and cause a leak.
- fsh 4y ago
  Also not that long ago, they tried launching a Proton M which had the angular velocity sensors installed upside down: https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culprit https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culpri... Looks like decades of rampant corruption and political violence are not exactly good for high-tech industry. Who would have thought?
  - LarryMullins 4y ago
    Once in KSP Iinstalled MechJeb (a modded autopilot component) upsidedown and my rocket failed in precisely this way, trying to make a u-turn right off the launch pad. Pretty funny to see it happen IRL, since nobody got hurt.
  - wcoenen 4y ago
    I don't think you can attribute this failure to a political system. Space is hard. NASA's Genesis sample return capsule also failed due to an upside-down sensor[1]. Fun fact about the Proton M failure: the sensor was designed so that it could only be mounted correctly, but apparently it had been forced in the wrong way somehow. Possibly with a hammer. From [2]: By July 13, investigators simulated the improper installation of the DUS angular velocity sensors on the actual hardware. As it turned out, it would be very difficult to do but not impossible. To achieve that personnel would need to use procedures and instruments not certified either by the design documentation or the installation instructions. As a result, the plate holding the sensors sustained damage. Yet, when the hardware recovered from the accident was delivered to GKNPTs Khrunichev, it was discovered that the nature of the damage to the plate had almost exactly matched the simulated version. [1] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9331-crashed-spacecraft-was-faster-cheaper-but-not-better/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9331-crashed-spacecra... [2] https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culprit https://www.russianspaceweb.com/proton_glonass49.html#culpri...

ezconnect 4y ago

That's like saying the Russian blown up the Nordstream pipeline to sabotage their own revenue stream.

abracadaniel 4y ago
A revenue stream that could only flow again if Putin were kicked out. Hard to imagine who might want a giant price on Putin’s head taken out.
simion314 4y ago
Many do this mistake to consider "Russia" instead of just Putin, those two entities interests do not align, so shit that might not make sense for Russia to do might make perfect sense for Putin to do. We had the cases where instead of admitting that their warship was hit Putin regime pushed the narrative that it was just Russian incompetence. So for sure it makes no sense for Russia to want their popes sabotage, but I am not sure about Putin, I can't understand his thinking, wither I am missing some information or his mind got corrupted by his own propaganda.
- bilqis 4y ago
  It’s also a mistake to think that Putin is some kind of Czar with absolute ultimate power.
  - simion314 4y ago
    Please tell me who can stop Putin? - the chances that the parliament can do it are zero - the chances that the army can do it are small sicne he put in charge his incompetent but loyal people and has created his own military branch for his personal protection - the chance that public protestsc could do it are also small China has more influence on what Putin ca n\t do then Russians.
    - bilqis 4y ago
      Putin doesn’t exist on his own and doesn’t act on his own. He has support from FSB, from capital, from right people there and there, he has influence. He can be removed and influenced by many many people. But you’re right with your assessments that nor parliament nor public protests can do shit with Putin and his goons.

duxup 4y ago

I have trouble imagining Russians wanting their own spacecraft to look bad. It just doesn’t make sense.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

HybridCurve 4y ago

It's a government space agency in a kleptocratic state, what other result would you expect? Roscosmos has been under scrutiny for corruption and fraud for some time. I don't even think you could even attribute it to incompetence (on behalf of the professionals) because if you keep reducing funds and resources problems are going to manifest regardless.

justinator 4y ago

I think resources in general are getting a little hard to find in Russia, especially for things like space ships. Most likely those resources are being diverted into making missiles, either officially, or through black market channels. Russia will fight until Moscow falls, it not a matter of if a Soyuz or two doesn't come home.

Kukumber 4y ago

why would russia sabotage their own space station? it would be a job for the US , just like with nordstream2, they were never able to make one and china recently made their own (smaller), so they are maybe jealous, or it does give the impression that Russia is a scientifically advanced country, that would go against the current dogma? let's take a step back and appreciate how the west was never able to put something habitable into orbit for this long impressive

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

sigil 4y ago

As the resolver for a Manifold prediction market, I've been following this story closely for the last couple months. [0] Back in December, HN user JanSolo wondered if the three astronauts assigned to the leaking Soyuz MS-22 might be evacuated via the Dragon Capsule. [1] Since the default evacuation plan was to send the next Soyuz MS-23 up early and unmanned, Dragon seemed unlikely...unless, of course, the coolant leak was due to a design or manufacturing defect affecting other Roscocosmos craft. This latest Progress MS-21 news makes the defect hypothesis much more likely, in my view. A joint NASA-Roscocosmos investigation found that the original MS-22 coolant leak was caused by a micrometeroid about 1mm in diameter. I don't expect them to walk that back, so perhaps the defect makes these coolant lines more susceptible to puncture than before? [0] https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astronauts-assig https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astrona... [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33995082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33995082