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> while betting roughly $35,000 that they would beat the Los Angeles Rams and go on to win the Super Bowl. They lost. These are definitely not investors, and t
by dvt 4y ago
> while betting roughly $35,000 that they would beat the Los Angeles Rams and go on to win the Super Bowl. They lost.
These are definitely not investors, and they aren't even traders. They're /r/wallstreetbets gambling addicts. Most of them don't have trading "systems" (no, joining a Discord doesn't count), most follow technical analysis as if it were the Delphic Oracle, most mainly gained in the ridiculously bullish markets of 2020-2021 (I don't know anyone that lost money during that bull run), and most buy and sell options (which are meant to be used as hedging, not investment, instruments). I almost doubled my (non-index) portfolio by making the most obvious plays ever (durr, airlines will probably go back up, casinos will probably go back up, cruise lines will probably go back up).
Now, it's much harder to make free money, so yeah, they're "retreating" if you can call it that. But really, sideways/bearish markets are the true test of an investor, not the frenzy of bullish rallies. There's a handful of brilliant people on WSB (like DFV, among others, which are actually good, albeit high risk, traders), but after their coverage in NYT a few years ago, it's just become a cesspool
- elil17 4y ago>I almost doubled my (non-index) portfolio by making the most obvious plays ever (durr, airlines will probably go back up, casinos will probably go back up, cruise lines will probably go back up). I would argue that these were not the "most obvious plays ever." Airlines were making most of their money from business travel. It wasn't necessarily foreseeable that business travel would rebound somewhat and that increased leisure travel would make up the rest of the difference. Additionally, you should really compare your performance to how a baseline investment would have performed over the same time period. VT almost doubled from the the start of the pandemic to the market's peak, so it is not really fair to say that you traded your way into doubling your portfolio.
- DontchaKnowit 4y agoThere were plenty of opportunities to lose money during that period. Doubling your money is fucjing fantastic no matter how you slice it. Let the guy have his win lmao
- elil17 4y agoThere was no opportunity to lose money if you diversified with an index fund or frankly even an actively managed fund. For every one of these guys their is another who lost money compared to the market. People should not push the narrative that you can make money from stock picking when it's just not true in any practical way.
- DontchaKnowit 4y agoyou're wrong about that
- madaxe_again 4y agoIn the market that we’ve had these past few years, it’s reasonable performance. Me, I just buy and hold on undervalued companies that make sausage machines rather than sausages, have been for a decade, and I’ve seen an overall gain of 38,000%. No leverage, as my strategy occasionally entails watching everything slowly decline 20% during from time to time — but I bought equities in businesses that I believed had legs at the time, and continue to do so for the same reason.
- duxup 4y agoAirlines are also weird in that at times they're more than willing to compete like crazy and eat brutal losses. And then suddenly not ...
- ghaff 4y agoI'm actually surprised by the degree to which business travel has bounced back--especially given that in the tech sector anyway, a lot of companies are scrutinizing travel expenses very carefully.
- rcme 4y ago> As his gains swelled, so did his spending on everything from sports betting and bars to luxury cars. The sports betting wasn't part of his investing strategy. This feels like a "No True Scotsman" fallacy to say these people aren't really investors.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- maximinus_thrax 4y agoI don't understand this comment. Do you have a problem with the terminology? Or with those investors in particular or with how they actually made their money or... ? To me it reads sort of like gatekeeping on who should have access to the market based on the lack of trading 'system' or whatever that means. Reminds me of the hedgies touting about the 'fundamentals' during the GME saga.
- tptacek 4y agoPeople are right to be cynical and critical of the GME fundamentals. It's a meme, not an investment.
- maximinus_thrax 4y agoit can be both a meme and an investment. If someone buys GME, while they hold the stock, they're by definition an investor.
- tptacek 4y agoThat's like saying you're an investor at the table as long as the roulette ball is still moving.
- maximinus_thrax 4y agoSo you're saying that the market is like a casino? Fair enough, then. But no, you're an investor as long as you have money on the table.
- tptacek 4y agoNo, I'm saying that GME is like a casino. That was an extremely lame attempt at an assumptive close.
- maximinus_thrax 4y ago
- sakopov 4y agoHe was making sport bets with the money he made from trading. The article doesn't use this to illustrate his trading strategy, but rather explain how he lost the money he made.
- WalterBright 4y agoI finally realized what the difference between gambling and investing was. Gambling - mathematically, you're going to lose over time. This is why blackjack, the lottery, and sports betting are gambling. Every system that has payouts based on what people put in, minus a cut for the bookie, is in this category. Investing - the mathematical odds are in your favor. Stocks, real estate, etc., as the payouts are based on the ongoing creation of value.
- chii 4y agoSo what do you classify poker as? Gambling? There's no house in poker (cept for the fees for the dealer, which i would assume is fixed).
- WalterBright 4y agoGood question! For most people (myself included) it's a zero-sum game of luck, and a loser if the house takes a cut. For some people who dedicate their lives to it, it's a game of skill, and an investment when played against lesser mortals. If you're betting on the players in the game, then it's clearly gambling.
- cafard 4y agohttps://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/3189/pg3189-images.html#science https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/3189/pg3189-images.html...
- reducesuffering 4y agoBlackjack as an example doesn’t work for the card counters that have +EV which can be had in a half day of reading / memorizing and $5k bankroll. Technically, their investment EV is far higher than stocks and bonds. Could be on the order of 2% per day, if it wasn’t for those meddling back offs and limits.
- WalterBright 4y agoThe casinos know about card counters and throw them out. They also employ countermeasures: 1. limit the amount of bets 2. using multiple decks 3. reshuffling the decks long before the deck runs out making the return so miniscule as to be a waste of time.
- dragontamer 4y ago> (durr, airlines will probably go back up, casinos will probably go back up, cruise lines will probably go back up). Don't forget the mother of all obvious plays. "Maybe crude oil's true price is higher than -$40 per barrel" (yes, negative dollars). EDIT: To be fair, oil traders got burned in the short term by calling the bottom at $10, $5, $0, -$5, -$10, or -$20. Showing the complications around "calling the bottom". Yes, it turns out, that the price of oil can collapse to spectacularly low values. Still, the price of oil did in fact recover above these levels, so buying oil at any of these entry points would have netted easy wins over the next couple of years.
- blippage 4y ago> not the frenzy of bullish rallies. One maxim I heard: in a bull market, the less you know, the more you make.