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Tesla used car price bubble pops, weighs on new car demand
- davidw 4y agoMusk getting very political is going to have an impact on people who drive EV's for reasons that may be somewhat political, and politically opposed to where he's going. Will his politics draw in people on the other side who were previously skeptical of EV's? I have no idea, really, about the numbers involved in either case.
- QuantumGood 4y agoWell, far on the "other side" are people who do coal running (black exhaust) and ICEing (blocking EV charging spots). So peer pressure (a very big thing at the extremes) has moved closer to the center, so that's one limiting factor.
- adolph 4y agoIs "coal running" a non-US term? Rolling coal is the practice of modifying a diesel engine to emit large amounts of black or grey sooty exhaust fumes—diesel fuel that has not undergone complete combustion. It is a predominantly North American phenomenon (more specifically in the United States and Canada), despite being illegal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_coal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_coal
- burnished 4y agoI guess calling the tow company is very effective at curbing the second behavior. I suspect peer pressure will reduce how commonplace it is over the coming years - I’m stretching the meaning of peer pressure here, but the risk reward is all out of whack in that your reward is an irritating but minor stunt and your risk is discovering your car is no longer where you left it.
- smt88 4y agoI doubt the effect of his politics is huge. Most people are totally unplugged from politics, and a lot of his buyers were Republicans anyway. Even the progressive people who hate him may still buy the cars because people don't often act on their beliefs. I suspect the following have had bigger effects on their sales: - Tesla being at the bottom of quality rankings (and lots of evidence of major quality issues) - increasing numbers of fantastic EVs sold by other companies at all price points - bad PR related to "FSD" and "Autopilot" - higher interest rates preventing financially irresponsible people from buying cars for status
- bcrosby95 4y agoMaybe before the Twitter fiasco. But after? I know about a dozen soccer moms with kids in elementary school and they're all tuned into Elon's antics.
- binarycrusader 4y agoI question the assertion that a typical Tesla customer is “totally unplugged from politics”. Why should I believe that the relatively small percentage of people that can afford a Tesla are also not at least politically influenced in their purchasing decisions?
- peterangular 4y agoYeah - agree on this. In my anecdotal experience, Tesla owners typically are educated professionals who are well established in their career and/or finances. They're also 90% homeowners because of the charging logistics (charger in garage). Unsurprisingly, these people are also typically invested into politics.
- CydeWeys 4y agoExactly. Your typical luxury EV buyer is not unplugged from politics.
- foobarian 4y agoOur Ford Escape is nearing the end of its useful life, and we are looking into an EV to replace it. Tesla Y is not going to be it, because it's small and expensive, not because of politics. I think a lot of people are in a similar boat, and if a cheaper EV of a similar form factor showed up it would see a ton of demand.
- VirusNewbie 4y agoWell Tesla’s next big product is allegedly a giant pickup truck.
- esotericimpl 4y ago[dead]
- Whinner 4y agoI wonder which will come out first, the Roadster or the Cyber truck
- hef19898 4y agoI bet their robot beats both, the roadster and cyber truck. Spandex costumes are cheaper and already available everywhere.
- bdcravens 4y agoI'm in Houston, where pickups reign supreme. I don't know a single pickup truck driver considering the Cybertruck, and even among those who aren't pro-EV, they are warming to the idea of the F-150 Lightning. Pickup truck drivers tend to be very loyal to their chose brand.
- redox99 4y agoI think this is vastly overblown. Your average Joe barely knows who Elon Musk is. Unlike most of us here, most people aren't up to date on whatever X individual tweeted or said. Edit: Downvoted for giving my opinion, stay classy HN.
- fathyb 4y agoI'd argue the majority of Tesla owners are aware of who he is.
- redox99 4y agoIf Tesla were to only keep the hardcore customer base it would massively fail. Their goal is to be the most popular brand. In that case, the hardcore user base becomes only a small percentage.
- binarycrusader 4y agoCan the average Joe afford a Tesla? If they can, are they really average? Can you clarify or should I just assume that I shall be downvoted into oblivion for asking?
- ricardobeat 4y agoThe parent comment said this is vastly overblown, because 'average people' don't know who Musk is. If 'average people' won't buy a Tesla, then this line of reasoning is moot?
- binarycrusader 4y agoIf we’re going to make “average Joe” arguments then I’d like to see why someone believes that someone that can afford a Tesla is average given median income distribution in almost any country.
- ivalm 4y agoThat parent implied average people affect Tesla revenue, so asking if they can afford the car is very relevant. Only opinions of potential buyers actually matters.
- kweinber 4y agoWe were about to be a two Tesla house this year and now there is 0% chance we’ll be that after the latest shenanigans. Although my car is well made, I’m a little embarrassed to drive it around now.
- globalreset 4y ago[flagged]
- brink 4y ago> the latest shenanigans Which shenanigans are you referring to?
- CydeWeys 4y agoEverything Elon has done on Twitter over the past couple months. My mom is in the same situation; she was considering a Tesla but now won't be caught dead in one.
- LarryMullins 4y ago[flagged]
- jfk13 4y agoI don't think that follows at all. Twitter is quite unimportant to me: I don't tweet, and very rarely look at anyone else's tweets either. Yet I'm fairly aware of Musk's behavior during and since the takeover, and while I admit I already had a somewhat negative view of him thanks to some earlier episodes, the Twitter saga has well and truly poisoned his personal brand (in my view).
- LarryMullins 4y agoWell I responded to somebody who was evidently fine with Musk until the twitter shit.
- nobodyandproud 4y agoI don’t care about Elon’s erratic politics, but I have no desire to be a perpetual beta tester. I like my cars boring and reliable.
- LarryMullins 4y ago> Will his politics draw in people on the other side who were previously skeptical of EV's? Not a snowball's chance in hell. The hangup most people have with EVs is the price and the uncertainty that the car would sustain their lifestyle (which is particularly a concern for people living outside of cities.) It was never "EV car execs are insufficiently conservative."
- kodah 4y agoI agree. I had a hybrid, ended up buying a Tacoma with plans to buy an EV in the future when there's more value per dollar in them. I'll probably continue to own both as I have use for a truck. There's a lot of unanswered questions about what to do with aging batteries, towing capacity is awful, and road trips in EVs are hairy. I've always viewed them as a rich city person's luxury toy.
- ilrwbwrkhv 4y agoNobody likes dicks. pg wrote about it here http://www.paulgraham.com/good.html http://www.paulgraham.com/good.html Elon became a dick. Maybe he was always one, maybe he became one. Punching down makes you a dick and he has been doing it again and again. Claiming autism will not save him.
- mlindner 4y agoThe only punching down happening is the media campaign against the man. He's still solidly for saving the planet and that hasn't changed. He just sees that there's now additional existential risks that are looking to prevent him from doing that coming from the political side because they're gaining control of the means of communication. This is his attempt to fight back against such forces that are much larger than himself.
- abenga 4y agoI wonder how aligning with the conservative wing of global politics who are so aggressively against the climate change mitigation agenda shows he is "solidly for saving the planet".
- mlindner 4y agoThat viewpoint is dying out in the conservative wings of global politics, it's still there, but it's not nearly as front and center, and the few times such views have been expressed to Elon from said conservatives, he's countered them. You don't have to agree with everything someone says to still agree with many things.
- newZWhoDis 4y agoElon’s Twitter posts have zero impact on anything related to the car. The people allowing that to shape their purchasing decisions are underdeveloped emotional children. Adults buy a vehicle based on specs, price, build quality, and style.
- LarryMullins 4y ago> and style. Therein lies the rub, style is not such a rational quantitative and empirical metric; it's "emotional". The brand has become less stylish because the man who owns it is becoming very unpopular.
- vgt 4y agoTesla's ICP are highly educated affluent liberals who believe in climate change, vaccines, women's rights, lgbt rights, and so on. They buy expensive EVs to make a statement and contribute to green economy. Musk is very quickly alienating these people. Imagine if Trump sold cars. And you continue your toxic language in virtually every musk related thread.
- travisporter 4y agoI think this is true for the majority of working class people, but my feeling, just from talking to others is that when you're in the market for a Tesla you have the money to be a bit more choosy and start to care about stuff. Musk is inexorably linked to Tesla. I know two people who have backed out of a Model Y purchase last month.
- iudqnolq 4y agoI care deeply about people in categorizes Musk cruelly mocks. I don't care what my neighbors think of my sense of style. Even if you pursue style that's no guarantee you'll succeed. there's a reason there's a stereotype of balding middle aged men buying fancy cars to compensate for perceived inadequacy.
- l33tman 4y agoThat does not follow. I was in the market for an EV and considered a Tesla and now I just get a bad feeling when I see one. I have many friends who think the same and it's 100% to do with Musk, as I associated him with the brand as do a lot of other customers. It's of course illogical, but humans are very illogical..
- daveguy 4y agoHard to tell whether the FSD debacle is more or less of an influence than the politics. At first there was all kinds of video showing Tesla avoiding accidents. Now all the videos seem to be about how careful you have to be to avoid plowing into a pedestrian or a concrete planter. Or how poor the auto-parking is compared to electronic vehicles from other manufacturers. Tesla's software features have gotten objectively bad.
- elif 4y agoFrom what I can tell as a Tesla owner that responds to a lot of Tesla Internet comments, teslas appeal historically has actually been broad politically. The biggest limiting factor of appeal is price, with a lot of people either perceiving the vehicles as expensive for their value or just being hopelessly priced out of luxury car prices generally. From that perspective, people dig into anecdotes about repair costs, motor/battery replacement, electricity costs, cold weather, etc to self-justify. I don't see a lot of ideology-based resistance or support for that matter.
- klroberts 4y agoHe really didn't change that much. The "left" did not have a problem with his tweets or Tesla autopilot failures before he took over Twitter. Only when he threatened their censorship and their incomes, which are largely based on creating narratives and inventing new social justice causes, the "left" started to lash out. I do think the TSLA related issues have little to do with the backlash and more with various economic fundamentals.
- rvz 4y agoOnly the techies here and the Tesla stock bag-holders who bought at the top of the bubble care about Musk's political leanings. Tesla has been doing just fine despite the competitors catching up which I already expected to happen as the stock was priced in years ago due to the hype. [0] This comment sounds like a overreaction due to Musk taking over Twitter. Generally, people couldn't care less and are still buying and driving Teslas just like how many people still choose to drive Volkswagons despite the founder of the German Labour Front, Adolf Hitler being the founder. Little to no one cares about the political stances other than the techies and bag-holders here as the cars are fine. Anything that is worth the criticism would be the safety of the FSD system which is a total scam that is rightfully under investigation and puts the lives of drivers on the road at risk. Thankfully, at least it is a optional system. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27966105 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27966105
- mlindner 4y agoThere's an entire half of the population that's on the other side of the matter that will now be similarly interested in buying for the same reasons that the other side is now against buying. However most don't and won't care.
- seanmcdirmid 4y agoVery few people are buying EVs for political reasons. It’s just a dumb way to make a political statement.
- TradingPlaces 4y agoEveryone wants this to be about politics, but that elides the fact that he looks like an utter clown every day to anyone who understands software, social media, or finance.
- hnburnsy 4y agoUsed Teslas will be eligible for a 4500 tax credit in 2023, I assume many are waiting.
- cma 4y agoOnly for used electrics that cost under $25,000. The cheapest Tesla I see on Carvana is around $38K.
- ricardobeat 4y agohttps://archive.ph/uc4JW https://archive.ph/uc4JW
- bpodgursky 4y agoMost Tesla sales aren't even in the US. Pretty sure consumers in China and India are not especially bothered by Musk's Twitter antics.
- persedes 4y agoAccording to this almost half of teslas revenue is in the US: https://businessquant.com/tesla-inc-revenue-by-region https://businessquant.com/tesla-inc-revenue-by-region
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- camdat 4y agoTeslas generally aren't available in India. Import duties are high for foreign vehicles (like "100% of vehicle cost" high) , and Tesla doesn't have Indian factories.
- jmyeet 4y agoAs much as many of us would like to attribute this to Elon's recent arc of desperately seeking approval from the Gamergate crowd hurting the Tesla brand (which it does), this is really just the used car market returning to Earth. Like many things, car demand fell off a cliff in 2020 and then roared back to life in 2022. There was lots of shuttered capacity and it takes time to ramp that up. Since most cars are produced overseas, this was doubly hurt by sea freight demand also going through the roof. Of course this increased demand for used cars. 6-12 months ago you'd see story after story of 2 year old cars having trade in values of basically the new sticker price. That was never going to last. Either the new prices were going to go up (which some did) or used prices were going to crash. New car production finally caught up and used car prices have started to crash. There's a lot of speculation that this is going to cause a lot of issues with underwater auto loan debt. We will see. Tesla has the additional issue that more and more EV options are becoming available. So I really don't think this has much to do with Musk at all.
- cma 4y agoTesla/Musk held a presentation in 2019 (Autonomy Investor Day) where he said you would be crazy not to buy their cars, they will be the first appreciating assets and likely go up over $200K due to their robo taxi network going online across the nation in 2020. He said they would handle all human drivable conditions by then and that they just needed winter 2019 to finalize ice and snow autonomy. They did turn out to appreciate, but so did the whole used car market, for very different reasons.
- eightysixfour 4y agoNot only this, but gas prices are back down too. If you chart the sale of hybrids and such with gas prices, demand tracks pretty closely. Car market coming down from the stratosphere, impending tax credits, and reduced gas prices are a perfect storm for Tesla prices to fall like a rock. They have a high unit margin and room to bring prices down, but there is substantial danger as others pick up the competition. Rumors of a Model 3 refresh soon are also floating, which may give the informed buyer some pause.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- 1970-01-01 4y agoApples and oranges yet again. Don't compare Tesla to others until others have more than 80% of their used inventory as EVs. Until then, it's apples and oranges.
- michaelbuckbee 4y agoIt's the quality issue for me; someone described their Tesla as "Imagine if your printer was your car."
- Method-X 4y agoHave had a Model 3 since 2018. Zero issues. Same for friends.
- survirtual 4y agoHave had mine since 2019. About to hit 200k miles. Same. Best car I’ve owned and it isn’t even close. Not sure who all these people are but they clearly haven’t owned a Tesla, or if they have, they haven’t used it anywhere near its limits.
- lawn 4y agoClassical "works on my machine!".
- csa 4y ago> someone described their Tesla as "Imagine if your printer was your car." I hope you don’t defer judgment on other things to this “someone”. There are many Tesla owners (e.g., myself and several of my friends) who are just quietly enjoying our cars.
- culi 4y agoTesla cars have consistently been rated as one of the worst brands for initial quality (e.g. by JD Power who ranked them last) and for reliability (e.g. by Consumer Reports who ranked them 2nd to last) A new car is a new car though and I'm sure it's gonna be great regardless of the brand. But it's pretty well established that the build quality is extremely lackluster compared to other brands
- csa 4y ago
- xnx 4y agoThe stock prices was inflated because people thought Tesla was the iPhone of cars. Recently it seems they're closer to being the My Pillow of cars.
- vardump 4y agoOther than hyper-luxury brands, which manufacturer commands margins higher than Tesla's?
- sys_64738 4y agoI made my cash by flipping TSLA stock a while back. I wouldn't actually buy one as I don't believe in their product.
- RickJWagner 4y agoI can't imagine taking company ownership into consideration when buying a car, especially something as different as an EV. (Volkswagen ownership, anyone?) If Tesla prices are going down, it's a boon for practical-minded people.