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> * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. True, but by the same token the West (and the res

> * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone involved. > * Taiwan is an island. Invading an island is a much harder task. Also true, but supplying a small island is also much harder than supplying a country with a large contiguous land border with you/your allies. All but one of Taiwan's major ports lie on the strait. And since Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, it has less strategic depth than Ukraine; there's nowhere for Taiwanese troops to fall back to. > Also very questionable if they actually have the ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in. I'm increasingly convinced that China's first act of war won't be shipping troops to the beaches but a blockade. That then presents the US with an unenviable choice: escalate to a full on shooting war to break the blockade, or give control of Taiwan's imports/exports (which is to say, Taiwan) to China.

nradov 4y ago
China's first act of war will most likely be to seize some of Taiwan's minor outlying islands. There are several such small islands which are close to mainland China and only lightly defended. Then depending on the strength of the international response (or lack thereof) they might escalate to a blockade.
- UIUC_06 4y ago
  Quemoy & Matsu: an issue in the 1960 Presidential elections [1] [1] https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-john-f-kennedy-quemoy-matsu https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-...
oneoff786 4y ago
If china wants to see how it’s ships fare against anti ship missiles and submersible drone boats, I think they’re going to have a bad time. I don’t think the US will bat an eye to breaking such a blockade either. The US cares a lot more about Taiwan than it cares about Ukraine.
- rapsey 4y ago
  They are however rapidly strengthening their navy and air force. Eventually the US navy in the area might be outgunned to a degree that forces their retreat.
  - foobiekr 4y ago
    "Eventually" here is doing a lot of heavy lifting. It's possible it will happen, of course, but is not within the realm of possible futures within the next ten to fifteen years. For better or worse, the US is easily the most powerful force projection entity in world history. This was true before Russia was revealed to be badly broken and is more true now.
    - rapsey 4y ago
      The US is however spread out over the worlds seas.
    - scarmig 4y ago
      The superior ability of the US to project force in distant places does not inherently translate to the ability to beat China in its own backyard. The US has more and (much) better carriers, but China has, well, China, and a whole lot of missiles and planes there.
- mordae 4y ago
  Not to the point of going to the war with China.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    You’re welcome to disagree. But I think they are down to clown.
- scarmig 4y ago
  The thing about a blockade is that you just have to get commercial vessels to not want to enter targeted ports. Even excluding financial and economic tools that China can leverage against companies and supposing China's military couldn't compete with the US near its coasts (debatable), a world where the strait is littered with mines and blasted with missiles is a world where Taiwan is effectively blockaded. And the US cares a lot more about Taiwan than Ukraine, but there's an equally large gap between how much China cares about Taiwan and how much the US does.
mordae 4y ago
> True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone involved. Both EU and US would actually benefit from manufacturing moving back. EU needs to do something about its stupidly car-centric economy and for US it just might help bring about a cultural shift away from extreme consumerism towards something more sustainable. > ... supplying a small island is also much harder than supplying a country with a large contiguous land border with you/your allies. All but one of Taiwan's major ports lie on the strait. And since Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, it has less strategic depth than Ukraine; there's nowhere for Taiwanese troops to fall back to. They are armed with missiles to the teeth and they can hit some rather sensitive places in China. They will just claim that they are defending their independent country while China can't really domestically explain carpet or nuclear bombing "their own citizens". And there are unofficial communication lines open to work around censorship. > I'm increasingly convinced that China's first act of war won't be shipping troops to the beaches but a blockade. That then presents the US with an unenviable choice: escalate to a full on shooting war to break the blockade, or give control of Taiwan's imports/exports (which is to say, Taiwan) to China. I expect brain drain and leaving rest of the Taiwan to China while officially protesting it and banning Taiwanese products from US/EU markets for a couple of years to help local spin-offs stabilize. But Taiwanese might choose to fight, in which case US/EU will happily supply weapons.
- jorvi 4y ago
  > EU needs to do something about its stupidly car-centric economy How do you expect anyone to take the rest of your comment serious when you state something like this?
  - cscurmudgeon 4y ago
    Why? There is a lot of truth to it. https://www.reddit.com/r/fuckcars/comments/qu1ob8/european_cities_arent_that_good/ https://www.reddit.com/r/fuckcars/comments/qu1ob8/european_c... Not as car centric as US or Canada but compared to the rest of the world EU is very car centric. At least the US and Canada are vast and their cities are much more young. Americans have this romantic view of Europe as old dense cities. https://www.confused.com/car-insurance/average-cars-around-the-world#location-2 https://www.confused.com/car-insurance/average-cars-around-t... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicle...
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
Taiwan is very close to the ryukyus, which has a heavy American presence. They aren’t so isolated as far islands go, blockading Taiwan would be really hard for China with Japan and the Philippines not very friendly with China.

nradov 4y ago

China's first act of war will most likely be to seize some of Taiwan's minor outlying islands. There are several such small islands which are close to mainland China and only lightly defended. Then depending on the strength of the international response (or lack thereof) they might escalate to a blockade.

UIUC_06 4y ago
Quemoy & Matsu: an issue in the 1960 Presidential elections [1] [1] https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-john-f-kennedy-quemoy-matsu https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-...

oneoff786 4y ago

If china wants to see how it’s ships fare against anti ship missiles and submersible drone boats, I think they’re going to have a bad time. I don’t think the US will bat an eye to breaking such a blockade either. The US cares a lot more about Taiwan than it cares about Ukraine.

rapsey 4y ago
They are however rapidly strengthening their navy and air force. Eventually the US navy in the area might be outgunned to a degree that forces their retreat.
- foobiekr 4y ago
  "Eventually" here is doing a lot of heavy lifting. It's possible it will happen, of course, but is not within the realm of possible futures within the next ten to fifteen years. For better or worse, the US is easily the most powerful force projection entity in world history. This was true before Russia was revealed to be badly broken and is more true now.
  - rapsey 4y ago
    The US is however spread out over the worlds seas.
  - scarmig 4y ago
    The superior ability of the US to project force in distant places does not inherently translate to the ability to beat China in its own backyard. The US has more and (much) better carriers, but China has, well, China, and a whole lot of missiles and planes there.
mordae 4y ago
Not to the point of going to the war with China.
- oneoff786 4y ago
  You’re welcome to disagree. But I think they are down to clown.
scarmig 4y ago
The thing about a blockade is that you just have to get commercial vessels to not want to enter targeted ports. Even excluding financial and economic tools that China can leverage against companies and supposing China's military couldn't compete with the US near its coasts (debatable), a world where the strait is littered with mines and blasted with missiles is a world where Taiwan is effectively blockaded. And the US cares a lot more about Taiwan than Ukraine, but there's an equally large gap between how much China cares about Taiwan and how much the US does.

mordae 4y ago

> True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone involved. Both EU and US would actually benefit from manufacturing moving back. EU needs to do something about its stupidly car-centric economy and for US it just might help bring about a cultural shift away from extreme consumerism towards something more sustainable. > ... supplying a small island is also much harder than supplying a country with a large contiguous land border with you/your allies. All but one of Taiwan's major ports lie on the strait. And since Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, it has less strategic depth than Ukraine; there's nowhere for Taiwanese troops to fall back to. They are armed with missiles to the teeth and they can hit some rather sensitive places in China. They will just claim that they are defending their independent country while China can't really domestically explain carpet or nuclear bombing "their own citizens". And there are unofficial communication lines open to work around censorship. > I'm increasingly convinced that China's first act of war won't be shipping troops to the beaches but a blockade. That then presents the US with an unenviable choice: escalate to a full on shooting war to break the blockade, or give control of Taiwan's imports/exports (which is to say, Taiwan) to China. I expect brain drain and leaving rest of the Taiwan to China while officially protesting it and banning Taiwanese products from US/EU markets for a couple of years to help local spin-offs stabilize. But Taiwanese might choose to fight, in which case US/EU will happily supply weapons.

jorvi 4y ago
> EU needs to do something about its stupidly car-centric economy How do you expect anyone to take the rest of your comment serious when you state something like this?
- cscurmudgeon 4y ago
  Why? There is a lot of truth to it. https://www.reddit.com/r/fuckcars/comments/qu1ob8/european_cities_arent_that_good/ https://www.reddit.com/r/fuckcars/comments/qu1ob8/european_c... Not as car centric as US or Canada but compared to the rest of the world EU is very car centric. At least the US and Canada are vast and their cities are much more young. Americans have this romantic view of Europe as old dense cities. https://www.confused.com/car-insurance/average-cars-around-the-world#location-2 https://www.confused.com/car-insurance/average-cars-around-t... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicle...

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

Taiwan is very close to the ryukyus, which has a heavy American presence. They aren’t so isolated as far islands go, blockading Taiwan would be really hard for China with Japan and the Philippines not very friendly with China.