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Key differences: * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. Being an energy exporter makes you

by rapsey 4y ago

Key differences: * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. Being an energy exporter makes you much more independent than being a manufacturer. * Taiwan is an island. Invading an island is a much harder task. Also very questionable if they actually have the ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in. * The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
markdown 4y ago
Would a few nukes solve the Taiwan problem without needing to deploy any troops?
- eloff 4y ago
  It would make more problems than it would solve.
- boomboomsubban 4y ago
  Sure, but then China would gain practically nothing while taking a huge international relations hit.
bryanlarsen 4y ago
Another key difference is that Russia is in decline and China believes they are in ascent. One of the main reasons Russia attacked in 2022 is because they believed that an attack would be more difficult in future years. OTOH China believes that their balance of military power is increasing relative to Taiwan and the west so an invasion will be easier in the future. Better to wait than invade in 2023.
FpUser 4y ago
>"China has no economy without the West." Loosing West as a trade partner will really hurt China but it will not be the end. There is the rest of the world to trade with. China is building trade with Africa, South America, Asia etc. etc. Besides I do not think a real decoupling will happen bar some major catastrophe. It will be as much economic disaster for the West at its current stage as it will be for China. As energy importer China can rely on Russia, SA and other oil rich countries whom the US does not love very much. So I'd say they're safe in this regard. >"The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause." I do not think China even needs this example. They can just simply wait.
- rapsey 4y ago
  Can they protect the sea supply lines from the US navy? Highly doubtful. Without those China grinds to a halt and starves. They are highly dependent on the americas for their food. Being an export economy losing your market is much more devastating.
  - katbyte 4y ago
    they also import a lot of energy like coal from Australia
  - nradov 4y ago
    In particular the US could declare a blockade and drop a handful of naval mines near Chinese ports. At that point almost all neutral merchant ships would have to avoid those ports because it's virtually impossible to obtain insurance in conflict zones, especially because insurers can't risk violating US financial sanctions.
    - FpUser 4y ago
      The blockade is a war act. If China starts the war then sure. Otherwise blockading China by "dropping naval mines near their ports" is sci-fi area.
      - nradov 4y ago
        Yes, of course. Declaring a blockade and mining harbors would only happen as a response to some sort of major aggressive act by China. It would be an act of war, but still a step below direct kinetic attacks on the Chinese military. It's possible to de-escalate from a blockade.
        FpUser 4y ago
        >"It's possible to de-escalate from a blockade." How? Oh please remove the blockade, we'll be a good girl from here on? Yeah sure. You think they would even let it get to the stage when harbors are mined? The only realistic and safe course of actions is for the West to get their shit together and start very gradual decoupling. This will of course be reciprocal and the end result will be multi-polar world with ever changing alliances. And after a while the trade between "enemies" will resume again and the circle will continue.
KptMarchewa 4y ago
>Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. Pretending to.
scarmig 4y ago
> * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone involved. > * Taiwan is an island. Invading an island is a much harder task. Also true, but supplying a small island is also much harder than supplying a country with a large contiguous land border with you/your allies. All but one of Taiwan's major ports lie on the strait. And since Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, it has less strategic depth than Ukraine; there's nowhere for Taiwanese troops to fall back to. > Also very questionable if they actually have the ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in. I'm increasingly convinced that China's first act of war won't be shipping troops to the beaches but a blockade. That then presents the US with an unenviable choice: escalate to a full on shooting war to break the blockade, or give control of Taiwan's imports/exports (which is to say, Taiwan) to China.
- nradov 4y ago
  China's first act of war will most likely be to seize some of Taiwan's minor outlying islands. There are several such small islands which are close to mainland China and only lightly defended. Then depending on the strength of the international response (or lack thereof) they might escalate to a blockade.
  - UIUC_06 4y ago
    Quemoy & Matsu: an issue in the 1960 Presidential elections [1] [1] https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-john-f-kennedy-quemoy-matsu https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-...
- oneoff786 4y ago
  If china wants to see how it’s ships fare against anti ship missiles and submersible drone boats, I think they’re going to have a bad time. I don’t think the US will bat an eye to breaking such a blockade either. The US cares a lot more about Taiwan than it cares about Ukraine.
yourapostasy 4y ago
> ...ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in Assuming the CCP is willing to throw the PLA(N) into a charnel house, there are certain scenarios where they can trickle them in after a fashion. The eastern seaboard of China has more than 500,000 fishing vessels that can be mustered across the Strait, even in inclement weather if safety of the boats, crews, and the fire team to squad level passengers and their gear was ignored. QUAD and Taiwan together doesn’t have enough missiles and anti-ship weaponry to sink enough of these boats to avoid a beachhead being established. In inclement conditions target acquisition of the small boats is very difficult. Not all boats need to hold troops. Not all of them need to be manned at all. Plenty of convoying drones in self-organizing meshes can carry supplies and surviving hulls can run aground at the beachhead to offer supply depots plus cover and concealment for manned boats. The CCP could use the massacre of this missile-absorbing force as a pretext to go nuclear on US CBG’s. They could “throw away” these lives on an unimaginably cruel scale. And still have more than enough troops left over to mount a legitimate invasion with “real” ships after pretty much all missiles are expended. There are many ways it can go pear-shaped in a hurry for either side. The only winning move is not to play.
- rapsey 4y ago
  Using fishing vessels does not sound all that realistic in terms of logistics.
  - scarmig 4y ago
    It's probably not the route China will take, but China has pioneered gray zone tactics in the SCS, using paramilitarized fishing ships to harass other vessels and extend its influence. But yeah, transporting hundreds of thousands troops in them through a hot war seems a logistical nightmare.
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
China is actually in a better spot than Russia to detach from the west. They make things, their people can definitely use those things, they rely on the west for cash but not really for things anymore. Russia will trade with them for their energy needs, food, mostly soy beans to feed pigs, is where their most of their challenge lies, but they have plenty of trading partners that are not very influenced by the west for that also.
- rapsey 4y ago
  No it is not. China is the king of cheap low end manufacture. The really high end production machinery tends to come from outside. They are far from independent.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    They do get lots of machinery from Germany, they can’t produce it as efficiently, but that doesn’t mean they can’t produce it at all. Don’t assume they don’t have a plan B even if it isn’t as cheap as plan A.

by rapsey 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

markdown 4y ago

Would a few nukes solve the Taiwan problem without needing to deploy any troops?

eloff 4y ago
It would make more problems than it would solve.
boomboomsubban 4y ago
Sure, but then China would gain practically nothing while taking a huge international relations hit.

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Another key difference is that Russia is in decline and China believes they are in ascent. One of the main reasons Russia attacked in 2022 is because they believed that an attack would be more difficult in future years. OTOH China believes that their balance of military power is increasing relative to Taiwan and the west so an invasion will be easier in the future. Better to wait than invade in 2023.

FpUser 4y ago

>"China has no economy without the West." Loosing West as a trade partner will really hurt China but it will not be the end. There is the rest of the world to trade with. China is building trade with Africa, South America, Asia etc. etc. Besides I do not think a real decoupling will happen bar some major catastrophe. It will be as much economic disaster for the West at its current stage as it will be for China. As energy importer China can rely on Russia, SA and other oil rich countries whom the US does not love very much. So I'd say they're safe in this regard. >"The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause." I do not think China even needs this example. They can just simply wait.

rapsey 4y ago
Can they protect the sea supply lines from the US navy? Highly doubtful. Without those China grinds to a halt and starves. They are highly dependent on the americas for their food. Being an export economy losing your market is much more devastating.
- katbyte 4y ago
  they also import a lot of energy like coal from Australia
- nradov 4y ago
  In particular the US could declare a blockade and drop a handful of naval mines near Chinese ports. At that point almost all neutral merchant ships would have to avoid those ports because it's virtually impossible to obtain insurance in conflict zones, especially because insurers can't risk violating US financial sanctions.
  - FpUser 4y ago
    The blockade is a war act. If China starts the war then sure. Otherwise blockading China by "dropping naval mines near their ports" is sci-fi area.
    - nradov 4y ago
      Yes, of course. Declaring a blockade and mining harbors would only happen as a response to some sort of major aggressive act by China. It would be an act of war, but still a step below direct kinetic attacks on the Chinese military. It's possible to de-escalate from a blockade.
      - FpUser 4y ago
        >"It's possible to de-escalate from a blockade." How? Oh please remove the blockade, we'll be a good girl from here on? Yeah sure. You think they would even let it get to the stage when harbors are mined? The only realistic and safe course of actions is for the West to get their shit together and start very gradual decoupling. This will of course be reciprocal and the end result will be multi-polar world with ever changing alliances. And after a while the trade between "enemies" will resume again and the circle will continue.

KptMarchewa 4y ago

>Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. Pretending to.

scarmig 4y ago

> * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone involved. > * Taiwan is an island. Invading an island is a much harder task. Also true, but supplying a small island is also much harder than supplying a country with a large contiguous land border with you/your allies. All but one of Taiwan's major ports lie on the strait. And since Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, it has less strategic depth than Ukraine; there's nowhere for Taiwanese troops to fall back to. > Also very questionable if they actually have the ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in. I'm increasingly convinced that China's first act of war won't be shipping troops to the beaches but a blockade. That then presents the US with an unenviable choice: escalate to a full on shooting war to break the blockade, or give control of Taiwan's imports/exports (which is to say, Taiwan) to China.

nradov 4y ago
China's first act of war will most likely be to seize some of Taiwan's minor outlying islands. There are several such small islands which are close to mainland China and only lightly defended. Then depending on the strength of the international response (or lack thereof) they might escalate to a blockade.
- UIUC_06 4y ago
  Quemoy & Matsu: an issue in the 1960 Presidential elections [1] [1] https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-john-f-kennedy-quemoy-matsu https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-senator-...
oneoff786 4y ago
If china wants to see how it’s ships fare against anti ship missiles and submersible drone boats, I think they’re going to have a bad time. I don’t think the US will bat an eye to breaking such a blockade either. The US cares a lot more about Taiwan than it cares about Ukraine.

yourapostasy 4y ago

> ...ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in Assuming the CCP is willing to throw the PLA(N) into a charnel house, there are certain scenarios where they can trickle them in after a fashion. The eastern seaboard of China has more than 500,000 fishing vessels that can be mustered across the Strait, even in inclement weather if safety of the boats, crews, and the fire team to squad level passengers and their gear was ignored. QUAD and Taiwan together doesn’t have enough missiles and anti-ship weaponry to sink enough of these boats to avoid a beachhead being established. In inclement conditions target acquisition of the small boats is very difficult. Not all boats need to hold troops. Not all of them need to be manned at all. Plenty of convoying drones in self-organizing meshes can carry supplies and surviving hulls can run aground at the beachhead to offer supply depots plus cover and concealment for manned boats. The CCP could use the massacre of this missile-absorbing force as a pretext to go nuclear on US CBG’s. They could “throw away” these lives on an unimaginably cruel scale. And still have more than enough troops left over to mount a legitimate invasion with “real” ships after pretty much all missiles are expended. There are many ways it can go pear-shaped in a hurry for either side. The only winning move is not to play.

rapsey 4y ago
Using fishing vessels does not sound all that realistic in terms of logistics.
- scarmig 4y ago
  It's probably not the route China will take, but China has pioneered gray zone tactics in the SCS, using paramilitarized fishing ships to harass other vessels and extend its influence. But yeah, transporting hundreds of thousands troops in them through a hot war seems a logistical nightmare.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

China is actually in a better spot than Russia to detach from the west. They make things, their people can definitely use those things, they rely on the west for cash but not really for things anymore. Russia will trade with them for their energy needs, food, mostly soy beans to feed pigs, is where their most of their challenge lies, but they have plenty of trading partners that are not very influenced by the west for that also.

rapsey 4y ago
No it is not. China is the king of cheap low end manufacture. The really high end production machinery tends to come from outside. They are far from independent.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  They do get lots of machinery from Germany, they can’t produce it as efficiently, but that doesn’t mean they can’t produce it at all. Don’t assume they don’t have a plan B even if it isn’t as cheap as plan A.