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Sounds like when Russia is finished doing what they're doing, China is next up to bat. Happy 2023, everyone.
by blippage 4y ago
Sounds like when Russia is finished doing what they're doing, China is next up to bat. Happy 2023, everyone.
- tosc 4y agoThere is no ‘finished’. We’ve always been at war with Eastasia.
- selectodude 4y agoYou’re right, if we do nothing, everything will be OK. Just look at Ukraine. They left Russia alone, and Russia left them alone
- jjoonathan 4y agoHey, the Russians just want a bit of lebensraum! How could appeasement possibly go wrong?
- tosc 4y agoWho said anything about doing nothing? Why not just accept that there’s been a Cold War going on all along and we’ve just been pretending otherwise.
- FpUser 4y agoDid Eastasia "always" attack you?
- rapsey 4y agoKey differences: * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. Being an energy exporter makes you much more independent than being a manufacturer. * Taiwan is an island. Invading an island is a much harder task. Also very questionable if they actually have the ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in. * The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- markdown 4y agoWould a few nukes solve the Taiwan problem without needing to deploy any troops?
- eloff 4y agoIt would make more problems than it would solve.
- boomboomsubban 4y agoSure, but then China would gain practically nothing while taking a huge international relations hit.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoAnother key difference is that Russia is in decline and China believes they are in ascent. One of the main reasons Russia attacked in 2022 is because they believed that an attack would be more difficult in future years. OTOH China believes that their balance of military power is increasing relative to Taiwan and the west so an invasion will be easier in the future. Better to wait than invade in 2023.
- FpUser 4y ago>"China has no economy without the West." Loosing West as a trade partner will really hurt China but it will not be the end. There is the rest of the world to trade with. China is building trade with Africa, South America, Asia etc. etc. Besides I do not think a real decoupling will happen bar some major catastrophe. It will be as much economic disaster for the West at its current stage as it will be for China. As energy importer China can rely on Russia, SA and other oil rich countries whom the US does not love very much. So I'd say they're safe in this regard. >"The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause." I do not think China even needs this example. They can just simply wait.
- 4y ago
- ceejayoz 4y agoI would suspect Russia’s pain in Ukraine serves as an effective deterrent. If China started amassing amphibious invasion forces near Taiwan, I’d expect the US to fill Taiwan with every javelin and stinger missile they can spare.
- ashwagary 4y agoUkraine isnt a deterrant. Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries. Most Asian nations will choose not to get involved in any continuation of a Chinese civil war.
- ceejayoz 4y ago> Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries. Taiwan is close to key US allies (Japan and Korea) and several other nations that aren't huge fans of China lately. It's also more protected than Ukraine by natural features, i.e. a strait the Chinese invasion force would have to cross in an amphibious assault. The deterrent from Ukraine is that conflict's showing how effective large numbers of man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles can be on an invasion force.
- ashwagary 4y agoDo you believe Japan and South Korea would put their populations at risk to interfere in a Chinese civil war? I highly doubt it, they are smarter than that.
- sebazzz 4y agoI bet they are carefully looking at the Ukraine war and observing the actions of the West, and the effect it has - and use this information in their planning.
- BurningFrog 4y agoIf the war goes badly enough for Russia, China will be happy to welcome parts of Siberia into its sphere.
- coffeebeqn 4y agoI don’t think they want to oversee another 3rd world province. Might as well leave the locals in charge and just extract their resources at a deep discount
- rfoo 4y agoLess likely than Mongolia.
- scarmig 4y agoChina barely cares about its own far north, let alone Siberia. It would much prefer to have Russia as a client state ready to supply oil and gas in the case of a war where sea routes for those are cut off.
- BurningFrog 4y agoI'm not suggesting formal conquest of territories. If Russia falls apart, and as the last grand colonial empire, it bloody well should, China should have a lot of influence over the regional pieces. It's hard to imagine something this ingrained ending, but nothing is forever.