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Are you saying that the articles claims of Google leadership seeing this as a critical risk are false? Because if Google sees this as a "red alert", it doesn't

Are you saying that the articles claims of Google leadership seeing this as a critical risk are false? Because if Google sees this as a "red alert", it doesn't seem to be so laughable. Even if Google can easily offer the same , and even superior functionality, it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Even more so if competitors can offer comparable functionality. Edit: To clarify, because this was mentioned multiple times: There are two aspects why this might be bad for Google: There are lot's of ways to monetize a chat bot, many of which would probably be even more effective than current ads, because they would feel more organic and thus more trustworthy. But they would be highly misleading, and I would very much hope for regulators to quickly step in and require a clear indication that a suggestion was paid for. There are already quite strict rules around product placement in the EU, and this is definitely worse. Sure, having to announce what is an ad is just the status quo. But I believe that would be a lot more off-putting in an "organic" conversation. Secondly, Google benefits a lot from people clicking on links which then lead to sites that show more Google ads. A more guided and effective "chat search" experience would probably cut out a lot of those ad impressions. Third: Google has enjoyed a very dominant position in terms of market capture and technology lead. A new technology always has the potential to upset the balance and significantly weaken the current leader, because there are now younger, leaner and more agile competitors.

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
The chat bot doesn't need to advertise to you directly. It can gather information that you magically see ads for on other services. Increasing the effectiveness of ads is more important than cramming more ads.
throwawayoaky 4y ago
> it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. why do I feel like this sentence will age poorly
- TeMPOraL 4y ago
  It's already aged poorly - in the first days of ChatGPT, someone already demonstrated it can perfectly mimic a YouTuber shilling a VPN every other sentence. But in general, to the extent "chat conversation" mimics spoken conversation between individuals, then this is the medium advertisers have the most experience with - quite literally thousands of years of experience.
  - visarga 4y ago
    Why would you talk to their models? Talk to your models, who talk to their models.
- kristopolous 4y ago
  When I read it I thought "wow that's such an easy business model!" This is identical to existing audio and TV ads where the personalities do the plugs. It's next generation interstitial targeted ads It's an extremely solved problem
- randomsearch 4y ago
  Also note that the cultural change around advertising within an AI chat interface could then lead to similar monetisation within human conversations too, ie WhatsApp -> WhatsAd
- jdsully 4y ago
  Alexa spams me with ads all the time - doesn’t seem that hard.
  - freediver 4y ago
    Which is not to say that people are enjoying that. Could that be the reason it lost 10B this year? https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-colossal-failure-on-pace-to-lose-10-billion-this-year/ https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-co...
    - jdsully 4y ago
      The problem is it’s ineffectual ads for their own stuff. They should be selling ineffectual ads for other people’s stuff.
endisneigh 4y ago
I'm saying that Google has been working on language models longer than OpenAI has even existed has probably has an order of magnitude more data to train on. The battle will be one of user experience, which can be copied relatively easily - not technology. For what it's worth, I'm not saying Google is unbeatable. I just don't think a language model trained on public data will beat Google. Maybe if it's some walled garden language model that has data that cannot be replicated, sure. That is my main point. Walled gardens will beat Google.
- qaq 4y ago
  It's not just about UX. This might be Kodak moment for Google if OpenAI makes a business that makes 5 billion a year and is valued at 100B it's a big win for them. But if google has to cannibalise 50 Billion a year profit cash cow to take a lead in a business that nets them 5 billion instead of 50 that's a big problem.
  - endisneigh 4y ago
    Maybe it will be, but Google has been working on language models before even GPT-3. they're very well aware of it. It's not like Kodak and how they absolutely refused to do digital photography, resulting in the resulting technological gap.
    - squiffsquiff 4y ago
      This is a really terrible example for your argument considering that the digital camera was invented at Kodak but they refused to market it https://archive.nytimes.com/lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/kodaks-first-digital-moment/ https://archive.nytimes.com/lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/1...
      - endisneigh 4y ago
        No, I'm aware and that's my point. They made it but they refused to do it. Google already had conversational models (note: not necessarily language models) running in production. (GC Conversational AI, Translate Conversational Mode, Conversational Search, etc). It's not like Google tinkered with language models and forgot about it, like Kodak and digital photography.
MattGaiser 4y ago
> Even if Google can easily offer the same , and even superior functionality, it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Just have it bias the recommendations, like spammers on Reddit do.
- the_duke 4y ago
  Sure, but that would hopefully be made illegal very quickly. The EU already has pretty strict rules around product placement, which is quite similar to what purchased bias would be, only worse.
vbezhenar 4y ago
> it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Hey, Google, can you suggest me a best android smartphone for $500? I need good camera. ChatGPT can answer to this question (his choices are Samsung A52, Pixel 4a, OnePlus Nord, Moto G9 Plus). Is this answer honest? I have no idea.
- freediver 4y ago
  The way to get the idea is for AI to cite their sources, thus explaining what 'best' meant. Then you can decide if the answer aligns with your values. For example: https://imgur.com/a/7ksmmvb https://imgur.com/a/7ksmmvb
DataJunkie 4y ago
>> it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Oh, I don't see that being a problem at all. "Tell me about the features of modern digital cameras." Chat bot: "Here's a bunch of information. And by the way, the Nikon Pipboy3000 has all of these features and they are offering 25% off right now. Do you want more information?" That's very easy. If done on an Assistant-like device though, that might be a bit different.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Syntonicles 4y ago
  If you had a choice between two seemingly all-knowing chatbots, and one of them kept trying to sell you things in the middle of your conversation, which one would you choose? I know which I'd prefer to talk to.
  - iainmerrick 4y ago
    Which one is free?
  - kumarvvr 4y ago
    Yeah, Unfortunately, Googles business is ads and their search pages are 50% ads front and center. So, between the two options, both are trying to sell you stuff.
  - kristopolous 4y ago
    There will be some disclosure somewhere. For instance, maybe it will be a slightly different color or you could hover over it to see the source. There's a myriad of ways to avoid that problem and make it socially seen as equivalent. Then you'll have ad blockers removing sentences. This seems obvious and inevitable - a two sided marketplace with easy capitalization opportunities; it'll fit right in
- tootie 4y ago
  Oooh, AI could revolutionize native advertising. "Explain why Expedia is the best way to book travel in the style of a Wall Street Journal article"
xiphias2 4y ago
Just to show how serious it is, I have worked at Google for many years and have seen code yellows a few times, but code red was always just a theoretical thing. I think it's great that the management woke up and understands that they need to disrupt themselves.
- dekhn 4y ago
  I also worked at Google. Code Reds happen when the management realizes they are signficantly behind (or being caught up to) from external sources and at a risk of an immediate loss of reputation. Often times, the engineers have already tried to self-organize and have built 2-3 not-ready-yet solutions in 120% time, all of which either got deprecated or aren't management's favorite product (I'm cynical having seen this cycle happen more than once). Jeff Dean already said externally that Google is purposefully not launching great models in the way OpenAI and others are, for all the reasons laid out in the article (and more). But, it's clear they use these things inside their products- probably not enough, because all of Google's main products that depend on ML have issues that will only be surpassed when we have a combined search/language model with a Google-scale index. Or maybe somebody will be able to do it with significantly less reference information than Google.
  - jeffbee 4y ago
    I have also worked at Google and you're not really in trouble until you hit Code Purple.
    - mickmcq 4y ago
      Wake me up when they reach code Blackwatch Plaid.
vanviegen 4y ago
I could imagine ad boxes besides/between the content, in which an AI explains how this company solves your problem. The 'main' AI could try to keep a neutral stance. So like current search engines, but more useful.

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago

The chat bot doesn't need to advertise to you directly. It can gather information that you magically see ads for on other services. Increasing the effectiveness of ads is more important than cramming more ads.

throwawayoaky 4y ago

> it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. why do I feel like this sentence will age poorly

TeMPOraL 4y ago
It's already aged poorly - in the first days of ChatGPT, someone already demonstrated it can perfectly mimic a YouTuber shilling a VPN every other sentence. But in general, to the extent "chat conversation" mimics spoken conversation between individuals, then this is the medium advertisers have the most experience with - quite literally thousands of years of experience.
- visarga 4y ago
  Why would you talk to their models? Talk to your models, who talk to their models.
kristopolous 4y ago
When I read it I thought "wow that's such an easy business model!" This is identical to existing audio and TV ads where the personalities do the plugs. It's next generation interstitial targeted ads It's an extremely solved problem
randomsearch 4y ago
Also note that the cultural change around advertising within an AI chat interface could then lead to similar monetisation within human conversations too, ie WhatsApp -> WhatsAd
jdsully 4y ago
Alexa spams me with ads all the time - doesn’t seem that hard.
- freediver 4y ago
  Which is not to say that people are enjoying that. Could that be the reason it lost 10B this year? https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-colossal-failure-on-pace-to-lose-10-billion-this-year/ https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-co...
  - jdsully 4y ago
    The problem is it’s ineffectual ads for their own stuff. They should be selling ineffectual ads for other people’s stuff.

endisneigh 4y ago

I'm saying that Google has been working on language models longer than OpenAI has even existed has probably has an order of magnitude more data to train on. The battle will be one of user experience, which can be copied relatively easily - not technology. For what it's worth, I'm not saying Google is unbeatable. I just don't think a language model trained on public data will beat Google. Maybe if it's some walled garden language model that has data that cannot be replicated, sure. That is my main point. Walled gardens will beat Google.

qaq 4y ago
It's not just about UX. This might be Kodak moment for Google if OpenAI makes a business that makes 5 billion a year and is valued at 100B it's a big win for them. But if google has to cannibalise 50 Billion a year profit cash cow to take a lead in a business that nets them 5 billion instead of 50 that's a big problem.
- endisneigh 4y ago
  Maybe it will be, but Google has been working on language models before even GPT-3. they're very well aware of it. It's not like Kodak and how they absolutely refused to do digital photography, resulting in the resulting technological gap.
  - squiffsquiff 4y ago
    This is a really terrible example for your argument considering that the digital camera was invented at Kodak but they refused to market it https://archive.nytimes.com/lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/kodaks-first-digital-moment/ https://archive.nytimes.com/lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/1...
    - endisneigh 4y ago
      No, I'm aware and that's my point. They made it but they refused to do it. Google already had conversational models (note: not necessarily language models) running in production. (GC Conversational AI, Translate Conversational Mode, Conversational Search, etc). It's not like Google tinkered with language models and forgot about it, like Kodak and digital photography.

MattGaiser 4y ago

> Even if Google can easily offer the same , and even superior functionality, it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Just have it bias the recommendations, like spammers on Reddit do.

the_duke 4y ago
Sure, but that would hopefully be made illegal very quickly. The EU already has pretty strict rules around product placement, which is quite similar to what purchased bias would be, only worse.

vbezhenar 4y ago

> it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Hey, Google, can you suggest me a best android smartphone for $500? I need good camera. ChatGPT can answer to this question (his choices are Samsung A52, Pixel 4a, OnePlus Nord, Moto G9 Plus). Is this answer honest? I have no idea.

freediver 4y ago
The way to get the idea is for AI to cite their sources, thus explaining what 'best' meant. Then you can decide if the answer aligns with your values. For example: https://imgur.com/a/7ksmmvb https://imgur.com/a/7ksmmvb

DataJunkie 4y ago

>> it's much harder to cram ads into a chat conversation. Oh, I don't see that being a problem at all. "Tell me about the features of modern digital cameras." Chat bot: "Here's a bunch of information. And by the way, the Nikon Pipboy3000 has all of these features and they are offering 25% off right now. Do you want more information?" That's very easy. If done on an Assistant-like device though, that might be a bit different.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Syntonicles 4y ago
If you had a choice between two seemingly all-knowing chatbots, and one of them kept trying to sell you things in the middle of your conversation, which one would you choose? I know which I'd prefer to talk to.
- iainmerrick 4y ago
  Which one is free?
- kumarvvr 4y ago
  Yeah, Unfortunately, Googles business is ads and their search pages are 50% ads front and center. So, between the two options, both are trying to sell you stuff.
- kristopolous 4y ago
  There will be some disclosure somewhere. For instance, maybe it will be a slightly different color or you could hover over it to see the source. There's a myriad of ways to avoid that problem and make it socially seen as equivalent. Then you'll have ad blockers removing sentences. This seems obvious and inevitable - a two sided marketplace with easy capitalization opportunities; it'll fit right in
tootie 4y ago
Oooh, AI could revolutionize native advertising. "Explain why Expedia is the best way to book travel in the style of a Wall Street Journal article"

xiphias2 4y ago

Just to show how serious it is, I have worked at Google for many years and have seen code yellows a few times, but code red was always just a theoretical thing. I think it's great that the management woke up and understands that they need to disrupt themselves.

dekhn 4y ago
I also worked at Google. Code Reds happen when the management realizes they are signficantly behind (or being caught up to) from external sources and at a risk of an immediate loss of reputation. Often times, the engineers have already tried to self-organize and have built 2-3 not-ready-yet solutions in 120% time, all of which either got deprecated or aren't management's favorite product (I'm cynical having seen this cycle happen more than once). Jeff Dean already said externally that Google is purposefully not launching great models in the way OpenAI and others are, for all the reasons laid out in the article (and more). But, it's clear they use these things inside their products- probably not enough, because all of Google's main products that depend on ML have issues that will only be surpassed when we have a combined search/language model with a Google-scale index. Or maybe somebody will be able to do it with significantly less reference information than Google.
- jeffbee 4y ago
  I have also worked at Google and you're not really in trouble until you hit Code Purple.
  - mickmcq 4y ago
    Wake me up when they reach code Blackwatch Plaid.

vanviegen 4y ago

I could imagine ad boxes besides/between the content, in which an AI explains how this company solves your problem. The 'main' AI could try to keep a neutral stance. So like current search engines, but more useful.