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It's interesting how different the rollout of autonomous cars has been from what people were expecting a decade ago. Not just the speed of things, but also the

It's interesting how different the rollout of autonomous cars has been from what people were expecting a decade ago. Not just the speed of things, but also the way they're being adopted. So far, we don't seem to be anywhere close to the nationwide mass layoffs of truck and taxi drivers that people were predicting would happen when self-driving cars started to take of. Instead, current trends seem to be for an additional form of transportation within limited geographic areas. One can imagine a scenario where, for instance, we have a number of cities where self-driving cars are the dominant form of transportation in the center, but traditional cars are still owned and operated by the people who live on the periphery, and most cities don't have self-driving networks at all. Something similar to how the subway functions in Manhattan New York, perhaps. Or maybe not. But I think this all shows that it's not just difficult to predict which pieces of future technology we will have, but also how a particular piece of technology will actually be implemented and impact society.

jchw 4y ago
It feels like there's always an imminent threat of computers and technology replacing more human jobs, but it might wind up being harder than it looks for one reason or another. I think in the past, technology mostly threatened to replace and eliminate jobs nobody really wanted, or merely assist people in their jobs to make them more effective. AI is really doing a number on us, though. I really like programming, and I have plenty of friends who really like drawing. It would be a shame if the main incentive to be good at those things in society were to disappear due to the job market being partially eaten, but it does seem like that's what is going to happen eventually. Sometimes I wonder if it's even worth fighting it, as it seems like it's just another inevitable mess that winds up the same either way because people with more money than I can fathom have a pretty good incentive to make it so. Either way, driving seems somewhere down the middle. I think automating driving would be great, but I also assume plenty of truckers do enjoy the job, and would be lost without it. It's good that this transition is taking a while. I don't think we're equipped to handle it.
colordrops 4y ago
If what you are describing turns out to be true in the long term, it would have to mean that there is something fundamentally different and harder about self-driving outside of cities.
- ghaff 4y ago
  If anything, I would think the opposite was true, at least with respect to major roads. To be honest, I'm surprised there hasn't been more of a push to get to something like fully hands-off Super Cruise [1] system. I'm not sure I'm that unusual in not generally caring that much about door-to-door self-driving but would love something to take over on boring highway drives. [1] https://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadillac/innovation/super-cruise https://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadillac/innovation/super-...
noneeeed 4y ago
I think a lot of people thought it would be exactly as hard as it has turned out to be but were dismissed as being luddites or lacking imagination. I think it’s always been apparent that self driving is one of those problems where the first 90% is hard but solvable, but where the difficulty just keeps increasing in the last 10%. When I was growing up in the 80s and 90s I was constantly seeing coverage of cars driving themselves around circuits and even handling skids in a skid pan better than any human. I fully expected to never have to drive. Sadly I was very wrong. I’ve never wanted more to be wrong about my cynicism about a technology than with self driving.
- ilaksh 4y ago
  And yet here there is an article about expanding the service area of a working self driving system and you are still implying that you believe it's impossible.
  - ghaff 4y ago
    In a limited area in cities with good weather. It would be foolish to bet that we'll never have fully autonomous driving on most roads in most conditions. It's probably also foolish to bet that kids growing up today can generally get by without ever learning to drive. (Yes, some cities are better than others and some just accept they can't easily go many places or pursue certain activities but that's not the general case.)
- KKKKkkkk1 4y ago
  I think a lot of people thought it would be exactly as hard as it has turned out to be but were dismissed as being luddites or lacking imagination. There may have been a lot of people like that, but there were very few knowledgeable people who were making such predictions in public. The only one I know of is Rodney Brooks, and even he went public for the first time only in 2017 [0]. [0] https://rodneybrooks.com/edge-cases-for-self-driving-cars/ https://rodneybrooks.com/edge-cases-for-self-driving-cars/
  - ghaff 4y ago
ansgri 4y ago
It’s just US implementing proper public transportation via contemporary means. I’ve always thought US has the advantage of a genuine need for robotaxis compared to other advanced economies where public transport already works well.
- throwaway2037 4y ago
  Tokyo, Seoul, Tapei, Bangkok, Singapore, Hongkong, Jakarka, Kuala Lumpur would all greatly benefit either by safer or cheaper taxis.
- IshKebab 4y ago
  Even in Europe public transport generally only works well in the biggest handful of cities.
  - tialaramex 4y ago
    If you squint inhumanly hard you can argue I live in my country's sixth biggest "city" (ie a contiguous area of urban and semi-urban development - but under such a view the city's "name" doesn't make sense to the people who live in it and that city doesn't have good public transport as a whole because it's not really a city) But the city I actually live in (the one whose residents recognise its name) is only a couple hundred thousand people, and it has good enough public transport that I lived here for almost thirty years now with no desire to own a car. Have I gone in somebody else's car to an event? Yeah, maybe a few times per year. But day-to-day and week-to-week I don't need a car. I have a license, I own a car parking space, I could easily afford a car, but it makes no sense to buy one, so I don't.
- xnx 4y ago
  With work fromn home and the efficiency, its worth asking if billion-dollar right-of-way public transiy makes sense anywhere. Waymo is to rail as packet-based networking is to dedicated copper analog phone lines.
  - johannes1234321 4y ago
wpietri 4y ago
For sure. "We tend to over-estimate the impact of a phenomenon in the short run and under-estimate it in the long run." I think part of what's going on here is that the actual pattern of technology use is heavily dependent on technical and economic details that can't be known up front. It turns out that SAE level 5 autonomy is much harder than a lot of people expected, so the thing that disrupted the cab industry is not the long-anticipated robo-cab but a mechanical-turk version of that. Or consider mass adoption of flying cars and/or personal helicopters. It has been technically possible for a while, but the economics and practicalities don't work out.
rafaelero 4y ago
Only the optimists were thinking we would have something like Waymo already in 2022.

jchw 4y ago

It feels like there's always an imminent threat of computers and technology replacing more human jobs, but it might wind up being harder than it looks for one reason or another. I think in the past, technology mostly threatened to replace and eliminate jobs nobody really wanted, or merely assist people in their jobs to make them more effective. AI is really doing a number on us, though. I really like programming, and I have plenty of friends who really like drawing. It would be a shame if the main incentive to be good at those things in society were to disappear due to the job market being partially eaten, but it does seem like that's what is going to happen eventually. Sometimes I wonder if it's even worth fighting it, as it seems like it's just another inevitable mess that winds up the same either way because people with more money than I can fathom have a pretty good incentive to make it so. Either way, driving seems somewhere down the middle. I think automating driving would be great, but I also assume plenty of truckers do enjoy the job, and would be lost without it. It's good that this transition is taking a while. I don't think we're equipped to handle it.

colordrops 4y ago

If what you are describing turns out to be true in the long term, it would have to mean that there is something fundamentally different and harder about self-driving outside of cities.

ghaff 4y ago
If anything, I would think the opposite was true, at least with respect to major roads. To be honest, I'm surprised there hasn't been more of a push to get to something like fully hands-off Super Cruise [1] system. I'm not sure I'm that unusual in not generally caring that much about door-to-door self-driving but would love something to take over on boring highway drives. [1] https://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadillac/innovation/super-cruise https://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadillac/innovation/super-...

noneeeed 4y ago

I think a lot of people thought it would be exactly as hard as it has turned out to be but were dismissed as being luddites or lacking imagination. I think it’s always been apparent that self driving is one of those problems where the first 90% is hard but solvable, but where the difficulty just keeps increasing in the last 10%. When I was growing up in the 80s and 90s I was constantly seeing coverage of cars driving themselves around circuits and even handling skids in a skid pan better than any human. I fully expected to never have to drive. Sadly I was very wrong. I’ve never wanted more to be wrong about my cynicism about a technology than with self driving.

ilaksh 4y ago
And yet here there is an article about expanding the service area of a working self driving system and you are still implying that you believe it's impossible.
- ghaff 4y ago
  In a limited area in cities with good weather. It would be foolish to bet that we'll never have fully autonomous driving on most roads in most conditions. It's probably also foolish to bet that kids growing up today can generally get by without ever learning to drive. (Yes, some cities are better than others and some just accept they can't easily go many places or pursue certain activities but that's not the general case.)
KKKKkkkk1 4y ago
I think a lot of people thought it would be exactly as hard as it has turned out to be but were dismissed as being luddites or lacking imagination. There may have been a lot of people like that, but there were very few knowledgeable people who were making such predictions in public. The only one I know of is Rodney Brooks, and even he went public for the first time only in 2017 [0]. [0] https://rodneybrooks.com/edge-cases-for-self-driving-cars/ https://rodneybrooks.com/edge-cases-for-self-driving-cars/
- ghaff 4y ago

ansgri 4y ago

It’s just US implementing proper public transportation via contemporary means. I’ve always thought US has the advantage of a genuine need for robotaxis compared to other advanced economies where public transport already works well.

throwaway2037 4y ago
Tokyo, Seoul, Tapei, Bangkok, Singapore, Hongkong, Jakarka, Kuala Lumpur would all greatly benefit either by safer or cheaper taxis.
IshKebab 4y ago
Even in Europe public transport generally only works well in the biggest handful of cities.
- tialaramex 4y ago
  If you squint inhumanly hard you can argue I live in my country's sixth biggest "city" (ie a contiguous area of urban and semi-urban development - but under such a view the city's "name" doesn't make sense to the people who live in it and that city doesn't have good public transport as a whole because it's not really a city) But the city I actually live in (the one whose residents recognise its name) is only a couple hundred thousand people, and it has good enough public transport that I lived here for almost thirty years now with no desire to own a car. Have I gone in somebody else's car to an event? Yeah, maybe a few times per year. But day-to-day and week-to-week I don't need a car. I have a license, I own a car parking space, I could easily afford a car, but it makes no sense to buy one, so I don't.
xnx 4y ago
With work fromn home and the efficiency, its worth asking if billion-dollar right-of-way public transiy makes sense anywhere. Waymo is to rail as packet-based networking is to dedicated copper analog phone lines.
- johannes1234321 4y ago

wpietri 4y ago

For sure. "We tend to over-estimate the impact of a phenomenon in the short run and under-estimate it in the long run." I think part of what's going on here is that the actual pattern of technology use is heavily dependent on technical and economic details that can't be known up front. It turns out that SAE level 5 autonomy is much harder than a lot of people expected, so the thing that disrupted the cab industry is not the long-anticipated robo-cab but a mechanical-turk version of that. Or consider mass adoption of flying cars and/or personal helicopters. It has been technically possible for a while, but the economics and practicalities don't work out.

rafaelero 4y ago

Only the optimists were thinking we would have something like Waymo already in 2022.