4 ms·

Without the staff from TSMC, the Chinese Government probably can't run those facilities. I suspect there isn't much probability that china could mobilize and ta

Without the staff from TSMC, the Chinese Government probably can't run those facilities. I suspect there isn't much probability that china could mobilize and take those facilities as-is with no sabotage. The US has taken steps recently to reduce china's ability to make chips domestically. See - https://www.seattletimes.com/business/chip-gear-maker-asml-asks-u-s-staff-to-refrain-from-china-customers/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/chip-gear-maker-asml-a...

nradov 4y ago
The Chinese government also wouldn't be able to run those fabs without ongoing support from ASML and other key foreign vendors. The production machinery is extremely complex with many specialized parts and a significant software component. Reverse engineering and duplicating everything would take years.
- phatfish 4y ago
  It seems like there are a few key parts that could be removed that would make those ASML machines utterly useless even if Chinese engineers spent time reverse engineering the rest. Surely there is no need to remove or destroy the whole thing as is suggested in other comments. The equivalent of popping out the Intel/AMD/ARM CPU to disable a computer, and leaving the motherboard, RAM etc.
mzs 4y ago
ATM PRC assaulting Taiwan would hobble western defense industry. By moving more manufacturing into NA & EU that alleviates it. It helps Taiwan as well who depends on western defense industry.
FBISurveillance 4y ago
I've read that TSMC fabs are filled with explosives to set off if China invades so they wouldn't get their hands on tech and equipment. I'm pretty certain that's true, given how important TSMC tech is.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  That meme makes zero sense considering TW don't want to be a third world economy dependant on exporting fruit even if PRC successfully invades. There's reason TW media was telling US think tanks to leave TSMC alone when US Army War College analysis suggested US should consider bombing TSMC... or exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) in event of war. As long as fabs and downstream supply chain supplies said fabs are intact, the island will have leverage to remain viable modern economy to support relatively affluent lifestyle. Note the point on downstream supply chain, there's sufficiently exclusive niche semi industries sustaining TSMC on TW that makes it as critical as ASML. Don't expect any Arizona TSMC fabs to operate smoothly without them. If anything, expect TSMC and TW + PRC to collude to threaten TSMC US fabs if try to sanction TSMC TW from making chips in event of successful PRC takeover. The people whose making bank off TSMC will want to so regardless of who rules the island. Ultimately short/medium term also in US interest to keep fabs going because not enough fab capacity will be reshored off island for long time, and the interest groups hurt most is US high tech industry who extracts disproportionate value add from TW fabs. Imaging every company that depends on leading edge chips turning into Huawei/ZTE because 95% of production goes kaput. Currently, cratered TSMC fabs actually works in sanctioned PRC's favour because it dramatically closes relative gap of who has access to high end semi. PRC vastly better off in balance where everyone is mostly stuck on 28nm+ instead of one where US has unfettered access to leading edge.
  - t-3 4y ago
    > exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) Why would you expect the US military to care about children or try to evacuate them?
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      US military doesn't care. But the TWnese care, which US thinktankers/media, and I'm guessing US based commenters like you seem to forget. Hence the disconnect on why people seriously contemplate these TW will blow up TSMC memes. And why TW media reminding US, that if they're going to evacuate anyone off the island first, it's not going to be their semi engineers, it's going to be women and children. Or that more generally, they're not interested in blowing up their lively hood to stick it to the PRC. Like how in UKR war, it's RU whose blowing up UKR infra and industry when they decided it was better to scorch earth long term.
filoleg 4y ago
The Chinese government doesn't run those facilities now, and I agree that they won't be able to do so in the event of a Taiwan invasion either. That's not the point though. Who runs those facilities now? TSMC aka Taiwan aka a western ally. Who stands to lose the most from TSMC facilities being burned to the ground? Taiwan (obviously) and the west. As a layman with no background in international relations, to me it seems like TSMC is simply an extra bargaining chip for the Chinese government. Which is why I am all about the idea of building more TSMC facilities in places that are less susceptible to being invaded. And yes, the Arizona plant is just a drop in the bucket compared to their facilities in Taiwan, but you gotta start somewhere, and something is better than nothing in this case imo.

nradov 4y ago

The Chinese government also wouldn't be able to run those fabs without ongoing support from ASML and other key foreign vendors. The production machinery is extremely complex with many specialized parts and a significant software component. Reverse engineering and duplicating everything would take years.

phatfish 4y ago
It seems like there are a few key parts that could be removed that would make those ASML machines utterly useless even if Chinese engineers spent time reverse engineering the rest. Surely there is no need to remove or destroy the whole thing as is suggested in other comments. The equivalent of popping out the Intel/AMD/ARM CPU to disable a computer, and leaving the motherboard, RAM etc.

mzs 4y ago

ATM PRC assaulting Taiwan would hobble western defense industry. By moving more manufacturing into NA & EU that alleviates it. It helps Taiwan as well who depends on western defense industry.

FBISurveillance 4y ago

I've read that TSMC fabs are filled with explosives to set off if China invades so they wouldn't get their hands on tech and equipment. I'm pretty certain that's true, given how important TSMC tech is.

dirtyid 4y ago
That meme makes zero sense considering TW don't want to be a third world economy dependant on exporting fruit even if PRC successfully invades. There's reason TW media was telling US think tanks to leave TSMC alone when US Army War College analysis suggested US should consider bombing TSMC... or exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) in event of war. As long as fabs and downstream supply chain supplies said fabs are intact, the island will have leverage to remain viable modern economy to support relatively affluent lifestyle. Note the point on downstream supply chain, there's sufficiently exclusive niche semi industries sustaining TSMC on TW that makes it as critical as ASML. Don't expect any Arizona TSMC fabs to operate smoothly without them. If anything, expect TSMC and TW + PRC to collude to threaten TSMC US fabs if try to sanction TSMC TW from making chips in event of successful PRC takeover. The people whose making bank off TSMC will want to so regardless of who rules the island. Ultimately short/medium term also in US interest to keep fabs going because not enough fab capacity will be reshored off island for long time, and the interest groups hurt most is US high tech industry who extracts disproportionate value add from TW fabs. Imaging every company that depends on leading edge chips turning into Huawei/ZTE because 95% of production goes kaput. Currently, cratered TSMC fabs actually works in sanctioned PRC's favour because it dramatically closes relative gap of who has access to high end semi. PRC vastly better off in balance where everyone is mostly stuck on 28nm+ instead of one where US has unfettered access to leading edge.
- t-3 4y ago
  > exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) Why would you expect the US military to care about children or try to evacuate them?
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    US military doesn't care. But the TWnese care, which US thinktankers/media, and I'm guessing US based commenters like you seem to forget. Hence the disconnect on why people seriously contemplate these TW will blow up TSMC memes. And why TW media reminding US, that if they're going to evacuate anyone off the island first, it's not going to be their semi engineers, it's going to be women and children. Or that more generally, they're not interested in blowing up their lively hood to stick it to the PRC. Like how in UKR war, it's RU whose blowing up UKR infra and industry when they decided it was better to scorch earth long term.

filoleg 4y ago

The Chinese government doesn't run those facilities now, and I agree that they won't be able to do so in the event of a Taiwan invasion either. That's not the point though. Who runs those facilities now? TSMC aka Taiwan aka a western ally. Who stands to lose the most from TSMC facilities being burned to the ground? Taiwan (obviously) and the west. As a layman with no background in international relations, to me it seems like TSMC is simply an extra bargaining chip for the Chinese government. Which is why I am all about the idea of building more TSMC facilities in places that are less susceptible to being invaded. And yes, the Arizona plant is just a drop in the bucket compared to their facilities in Taiwan, but you gotta start somewhere, and something is better than nothing in this case imo.