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And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today
by matwood 4y ago
And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation.
This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.
- throw0101a 4y ago> If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. Conversely, if there was a one-time jump in a particular item, it will take a year before it gets 'removed' from the inflation numbers. Extremely contrived example: if gas/petrol was $1/L in December 2021 (and generally in all of 2021), but $1.20/L in January 2022, then there will be a 20% YoY jump in inflation for the January number comparing Jan 2021 to Jan 2022. Now if gas stays at $1.20/L in February 2022, it will still register as 20% YoY even though the price has not changed month-to-month. That 20% (YoY) is "stuck" in the system until January 2023 when we're comparing $1.20/L to $1.20/L. A one-time jump can 'skew' the numbers if all you look at is YoY metrics.
- soared 4y agoIt’s not really skewing anything though, since the price is 20% yoy?
- danielmarkbruce 4y agoIt is skewing if you are looking for an up to date change. It's like, is it better to get two points on a curved line and draw a straight line through them, or is it better to calculate the derivative and the the slope at a specific point?
- joshuahedlund 4y agoThat depends on how noisy or smooth the changes are. That's why it's valuable to look at both.
- danielmarkbruce 4y agoIt may be - but to the above poster's point - if gas went up 20% in Jan of this year and then stays flat... is it helpful to think of prices as "going up" ? It seems misleading.
- dcow 4y agoIf the last time you looked was last year, then yeah. They went up this year. What’s misleading about reporting yearly percentage increases in prices? I’m baffled.
- ncallaway 4y agoI don’t think anyone was saying it was misleading, rather they were pointing at a nuance of the data.
- unethical_ban 4y agoSigh. The YoY is useful for businessmen and economists. People aren't checking their statements for milk prices from Nov 2021 right now. They just know "man it jumped up". The point is that the everyday person cares about jumps and trends, and hearing "20% YoY increase" for 12 months is misleading to someone not thinking about it in economists' terms. The fact a bunch of people here are debating what it means and how to interpret it proves my point.
- zhte415 4y agoIt isn't, yet it is. The price is still 20% you, and still 0% mom. If reported as inflation still at 20%, does that affect perceptions of inflation, and if so, expectations of inflation? Because expectations of inflation often turn out to be self fulfilling drivers of inflation. Reported as inflation stable even if it is 20%? Better? Not that 0% is a great target, but that's a separate issue.
- JumpCrisscross 4y agoWhich is partly what we’re seeing. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in October, or 4.8% seasonally adjusted. That’s above target, but better than YoY.
- fizx 4y agoReally wish we reported the 4.8% number. Seems more reasonable for a monthly report to focus on the changes of the month.
- Bootvis 4y agoI agree it's confusing. I think they do it to remove seasonality and the experts on the topic probably don't understand anymore why the rest of us think their way of reporting is confusing to lay people.
- orra 4y agoI agree the annualizing the monthly figure would be handy, as an additional figure. Looking at annualized monthly figures, it was also apparent (say) six months ago, that the monthly annual figures would almost certainly continue to get worse.
- treis 4y agoSeasonally adjusted != multiply by 12. Prices naturally fluctuate throughout the year due to weather, consumer patterns, and business cycles. Seasonal adjustment is an attempt to account for those changes.
- 0x445442 4y agoEspecially when their incomes didn’t double.
- bitshiftfaced 4y agoEven in the early 80s after huge interest rate hikes, YoY CPI inflation stayed above 2% (until the mid 80s). Rather than modeling it as "the price increases happened in a short period of time and then went back to normal," I think it's more likely that it happened more spread out and persistently, and perhaps still is going on. It's not going to jump to zero after some given month
- mattferderer 4y agoHow to set inflation expectations - "Inflation shoots up like a rocket & floats down like a feather."
- KptMarchewa 4y agoMonth on month numbers are still slightly up.
- impulser_ 4y agoDon't be surprised when politicians use this to their advantage next year.
- Am4TIfIsER0ppos 4y agoIf "inflation is transient" when is it going back to 2/gal?
- howenterprisey 4y agoYou're making the same mistake. If inflation is transient, the price _increase_ is transient, but the high prices remain. It would only go back to 2/gal if the high prices themselves were transient. Which I really hope is the case, but IDK.
- evancox100 4y agoTransient inflation means the $4 / gallon milk prices stick around and don’t go any higher. Going back down to $2 would be deflation.
- elgenie 4y ago“Inflation” means “increase in price levels”. That’s it. “Inflation is transient” fits prices increasing and then leveling out, and does not imply that every bit of price increase is balanced out one-for-one by immediate deflation afterwards. As for gas prices, it’s going to depend on supply (including refinery capacity) and demand. The $2/gallon of April 2020 was an artifact of covid nuking demand.
- coding123 4y agoIt's bullshit because it's an average of everything that no one buys. My grocery bills have doubled since 2020, meaning my CPI was 100% over 3 years. I will not shut up as you and many others are trying to force me into accept it's 10% inflation.
- sn0wf1re 4y agoThe Canadian government provides a personal inflation calculator. You may see higher or lower personal inflation than CPI. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020cal-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020cal...
- olivermarks 4y ago@matwood it is a disaster for working people regardless as wages are not keeping pace with the effects of inflation.
- fleddr 4y agoHonestly, I'm with those people. Your explanation is fully technically correct, but the subsequent messaging that inflation is zero is a matter of not reading the room. When an important item dramatically rises in price, this can have a massive impact on people. A dramatic drop in purchasing power or even businesses needing to close. It is impactful. When the price continues to be high, the impact remains. The pain continues, the problem is not solved. The politically smart messaging is to say "we feel and acknowledge your continued pain, this is what we're going to do about it", not "Good news! Inflation is 0%." Same with the opportunistic messaging of sometimes using MoM or YoY, whichever number looks better. When MoM inflation in October is 15% and 5% in November, you really shouldn't bring this as good news. The situation still got worse in the real world.
- lupire 4y agoThat's a different issue. "High prices" are a problem, but that's not what "inflation" measures. There is no way to report inflation (derivative of prices) that correctly reports "price/wage ratio", which is what people really care about.
- Spooky23 4y agoPeople who lack foundational skills in math are always vulnerable to being worried about witchcraft and conspiracy. It’s a major reason why society spends so much on education. Stupid people make poor citizens.