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Those millions who moved to middle class are also helping the layer below them. These lifted households are spending their wealth on house helps, local grocery

Those millions who moved to middle class are also helping the layer below them. These lifted households are spending their wealth on house helps, local grocery stores, taxis/autos and a whole lot of other local businesses. This trickle down effect then boosts development in cities where these IT hubs are located. Even more students then want to join these IT companies and enjoy the lifestyle of their seniors thus continuing the cycle. P.s. We spend money in local shops because the stores like Walmart have still not penetrated the Indian market as they have outside India.

TremendousJudge 4y ago
You seem to be close to the situation. Do you think Indian Walmart is a future inevitability?
- makestuff 4y ago
  Not op, but Walmart owns Flipkart so I think that is their play for India expansion.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    This is how Walmart and other companies spread into things like India - you might even see a few Walmarts open as a "higher class American-like" store, but the vast majority will be in things like Flipkart that are directly aimed at the market.
- anthropodie 4y ago
  We actually have D-Mart and they are quite huge but not comparable to Walmart. These are present at multiple locations in tier-1 cities but are hardly present in tier-2 cities. The thing is even though these are very popular they are not shutting down local shops in the region that they are located. The sheer demand is so high that people get things from local shops instead of standing in long queues at D-mart. To answer your question, yes Walmart can happen but it has to be ready for some serious competition because other than D-mart other big player JioMart backed by Reliance has entered this space recently.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- baybal2 4y ago
- kylehotchkiss 4y ago
  Some cities have “Big Bazaar” which is similar to a Walmart (smaller though, the Indian market doesn’t have the variety of brands and products other countries do). There certainly are a lot of other similar stores. A more American thing that isn't readily available is like a Costco, bulk shopping would be pretty tough there, and people are fine to go out on a more regular basis to pick up fresh milk/veggies. No American big box retailer will ever be built. Indian government doesn’t allow foreign companies to come in and set up shop very easily (at best they can get in with 49% ownership like Starbucks/Tata). Additionally the logistics situation is very different. Less ports, roads between cities built differently than USA, traffic across states is not a right like USA and various restrictions/inspections/fees can occur. It’s worth keeping an eye on IKEA’s expansion specifically in India. They really want to grow the marketshare, they have the right price points, and people seem to genuinely like and want them around. But lots of artificial hurdles which i suspect are caused by local traders/shops knowing how much business IKEA will take from them. Indian Amazon is approaching the utility of American Amazon and are pretty good about taking advantage of the existing couriers and air cargo which takes care of some of the interstate logistics I mentioned. The funniest part to me is that every individual item you order comes with it’s own delivery person, there isn’t yet much work to consolidate packages. The current generation is growing up with Amazon though and I anticipate many future improvements. I also see a dead comment in this thread saying India doesn't have malls... I've never seen more malls in an area than I have in big Indian cities. A lot of them are pretty good! Source: many extended visits to india
  - Scoundreller 4y ago
    > The funniest part to me is that every individual item you order comes with it’s own delivery person, there isn’t yet much work to consolidate packages. I'm impressed how much Aliexpress currently does this: consolidates purchases from different sellers, ship 3rd party to Canada, and then use local postal service for last mile delivery. Ebay could learn a lot from them.
  - kranner 4y ago
    Amazon India now offers weekly consolidation for many items with the occasional cashback incentive.
- pvsukale3 4y ago
  Yes, there is a company called Dmart and they are doing really well. Recently one opened in my area and local shop owner mentioned that it is killing their business. People are flocking to Dmart for discounts.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  One of the challenges is real estate and parking. Most major Indian cities are extremely crowded with little in the way of parking space or affordable commercial land. Most large stores in major population areas invariably have to pivot to the higher-end to justify the real estate costs. Driving out 45 minutes just to buy groceries seems futile since every neighbourhood will have dozens of grocery stores that will deliver right at your doorstep (and now, half a dozen quick delivery apps too).
dirtyid 4y ago
I think in a few years India will find focusing on middle class is not enough. There's finite demand for domestic+outsourceable white collar jobs for 1.4B internal market + ~400M English speakers around the world. PRC has 10s of millions of white collar jobs + 100s of millions of manufacturing that pays better than trickle down housesitting, but there's still 100s of millions more stuck in informal economy while both countries are stuck with another few 100s of millions of subsistent farmers because keeping agriculture low tech is an essential jobs program. Even by PRC standards, India is hyper Deng's "let some get rich first" scheme that's going to cause long term uneven development issues.
- adamc 4y ago
  There are lots of reasons to think the PRC is about to hit a very rough patch as globalism shrinks.
  - naravara 4y ago
    Shrinking globalism has a lot of causes so I don't want to overstate the case here, but one big part of the drive to pull back from it is the PRC's own currency manipulation and leveraging of its manufacturing bottleneck for geostrategic aims. They have themselves to blame partly. But really, their demographic precipice is what's going to stall them out. I hope their political system is functional enough to let it transition into something that can continue functioning after the end of a turbo-growth economy without collapsing into a Putin-esque kleptocracy or go the way of 20th century Argentina with constant coups and general political chaos.
    - mytailorisrich 4y ago
      Everyone, certainly India, need to stop population growth. We need to thank China as the developing country that has made massive efforts on that issue over the past 45 years.
      - naravara 4y ago
        India has also hit replacement or below replacement level population in most of the country and it was done without invasively draconian policy setting. Just female literacy and access to healthcare.
nonethewiser 4y ago
Trickle down
- the-printer 4y ago
  None the wiser.

TremendousJudge 4y ago

You seem to be close to the situation. Do you think Indian Walmart is a future inevitability?

makestuff 4y ago
Not op, but Walmart owns Flipkart so I think that is their play for India expansion.
- bombcar 4y ago
  This is how Walmart and other companies spread into things like India - you might even see a few Walmarts open as a "higher class American-like" store, but the vast majority will be in things like Flipkart that are directly aimed at the market.
anthropodie 4y ago
We actually have D-Mart and they are quite huge but not comparable to Walmart. These are present at multiple locations in tier-1 cities but are hardly present in tier-2 cities. The thing is even though these are very popular they are not shutting down local shops in the region that they are located. The sheer demand is so high that people get things from local shops instead of standing in long queues at D-mart. To answer your question, yes Walmart can happen but it has to be ready for some serious competition because other than D-mart other big player JioMart backed by Reliance has entered this space recently.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
baybal2 4y ago
kylehotchkiss 4y ago
Some cities have “Big Bazaar” which is similar to a Walmart (smaller though, the Indian market doesn’t have the variety of brands and products other countries do). There certainly are a lot of other similar stores. A more American thing that isn't readily available is like a Costco, bulk shopping would be pretty tough there, and people are fine to go out on a more regular basis to pick up fresh milk/veggies. No American big box retailer will ever be built. Indian government doesn’t allow foreign companies to come in and set up shop very easily (at best they can get in with 49% ownership like Starbucks/Tata). Additionally the logistics situation is very different. Less ports, roads between cities built differently than USA, traffic across states is not a right like USA and various restrictions/inspections/fees can occur. It’s worth keeping an eye on IKEA’s expansion specifically in India. They really want to grow the marketshare, they have the right price points, and people seem to genuinely like and want them around. But lots of artificial hurdles which i suspect are caused by local traders/shops knowing how much business IKEA will take from them. Indian Amazon is approaching the utility of American Amazon and are pretty good about taking advantage of the existing couriers and air cargo which takes care of some of the interstate logistics I mentioned. The funniest part to me is that every individual item you order comes with it’s own delivery person, there isn’t yet much work to consolidate packages. The current generation is growing up with Amazon though and I anticipate many future improvements. I also see a dead comment in this thread saying India doesn't have malls... I've never seen more malls in an area than I have in big Indian cities. A lot of them are pretty good! Source: many extended visits to india
- Scoundreller 4y ago
  > The funniest part to me is that every individual item you order comes with it’s own delivery person, there isn’t yet much work to consolidate packages. I'm impressed how much Aliexpress currently does this: consolidates purchases from different sellers, ship 3rd party to Canada, and then use local postal service for last mile delivery. Ebay could learn a lot from them.
- kranner 4y ago
  Amazon India now offers weekly consolidation for many items with the occasional cashback incentive.
pvsukale3 4y ago
Yes, there is a company called Dmart and they are doing really well. Recently one opened in my area and local shop owner mentioned that it is killing their business. People are flocking to Dmart for discounts.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
One of the challenges is real estate and parking. Most major Indian cities are extremely crowded with little in the way of parking space or affordable commercial land. Most large stores in major population areas invariably have to pivot to the higher-end to justify the real estate costs. Driving out 45 minutes just to buy groceries seems futile since every neighbourhood will have dozens of grocery stores that will deliver right at your doorstep (and now, half a dozen quick delivery apps too).

dirtyid 4y ago

I think in a few years India will find focusing on middle class is not enough. There's finite demand for domestic+outsourceable white collar jobs for 1.4B internal market + ~400M English speakers around the world. PRC has 10s of millions of white collar jobs + 100s of millions of manufacturing that pays better than trickle down housesitting, but there's still 100s of millions more stuck in informal economy while both countries are stuck with another few 100s of millions of subsistent farmers because keeping agriculture low tech is an essential jobs program. Even by PRC standards, India is hyper Deng's "let some get rich first" scheme that's going to cause long term uneven development issues.

adamc 4y ago
There are lots of reasons to think the PRC is about to hit a very rough patch as globalism shrinks.
- naravara 4y ago
  Shrinking globalism has a lot of causes so I don't want to overstate the case here, but one big part of the drive to pull back from it is the PRC's own currency manipulation and leveraging of its manufacturing bottleneck for geostrategic aims. They have themselves to blame partly. But really, their demographic precipice is what's going to stall them out. I hope their political system is functional enough to let it transition into something that can continue functioning after the end of a turbo-growth economy without collapsing into a Putin-esque kleptocracy or go the way of 20th century Argentina with constant coups and general political chaos.
  - mytailorisrich 4y ago
    Everyone, certainly India, need to stop population growth. We need to thank China as the developing country that has made massive efforts on that issue over the past 45 years.
    - naravara 4y ago
      India has also hit replacement or below replacement level population in most of the country and it was done without invasively draconian policy setting. Just female literacy and access to healthcare.

nonethewiser 4y ago

Trickle down

the-printer 4y ago
None the wiser.