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Live vote counting for Brazilian presidential election
- frozenlettuce 4y agoThis is the apuration for the second round on the Brazilian presidential election. It should finish in the next few hours (the 1st round took about 5 hours to complete)
- frozenlettuce 4y agoThe expected progress is: urban areas should be counted first, with Bolsonaro leading. As the remaining votes arrive they should start turn the percentage on Lula's favor. On most pools both candidates are tied, so the outcome is uncertain.
- slater 4y agoOne can only hope they finally rid themselves of Bolsonaro
- tristanbvk 4y agoWhere is the down vote button
- slater 4y agoNot available for new accounts, thankfully.
- tristanbvk 4y agoGood reply, I appreciate the banter ;)
- myth_drannon 4y agoI doubt it will happen. From what I'm reading and messages from relatives, federal police is blocking access to the voting polls in some poor areas where Lula is popular.
- Rzor 4y agoI don't think the PRF has enough people to actually make a difference in that blockade. Having said that, these are truly dark times for our democracy.
- kcarter80 4y agoFutures markets favor Lula 10:1. Do you have reason to doubt the herd?
- ohgodplsno 4y agoFutures markets tend to be quite awful at predicting military dictatorships, and are even quite keen on right wing fascism. Take everything with a grain of sand. Not just tonight, where the results will be announced, and Bolsonaro will protest them if he doesn't win, but even in the upcoming years.
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- the_gastropod 4y agoAs someone almost completely ignorant about Brazilian politics, this surprised me a bit. In the U.S., it urban voters tend to vote for the more progressive candidates. I'd assumed that was more or less a universal truth. Apparently not!
- coliveira 4y agoThe split is not really about urban voters. It is between the more developed south and the up and coming north of the country. Lula has enacted policies that help in the development of traditional poorer areas in the north of Brazil. That's why the more developed urban centers in the south don't like him.
- alchemist1e9 4y agoIsn’t it curious how urban is right leaning and rural is left. There are obvious reasons but still interesting.
- Waterluvian 4y agoIt’s interesting, possibly for the reason you’re picking up on: that’s broadly the opposite in Canada and the U.S.
- permo-w 4y agothe UK too
- red_trumpet 4y agoWhat would those reasons be? Rural areas are poorer, so they vote for the one who has a record of ending hunger would make sense. Why do urban areas lean to Bolsonaro?
- endtime 4y agoI don't know a lot about Brazil, so someone may correct me, but I'm under the impression that crime in Brazilian cities can be quite bad.
- namenotrequired 4y agoThis is a big reason. Another is a feeling, common in better developed regions, that their tax money is being used to sustain regions that "don't pull their weight" Source: lived in Brazil for 5 years
- felix318 4y agoIt’s not that clear-cut, in the richest states in the South the pattern is similar to what you see in the US, urban left, rural right. Also, this election is not typical. Left or centre-left has won 6 ou of the 7 past presidential elections since the end of military rule. Brazil, like most Latin American countries, is predominantly left-leaning. Bolsonaro has been an anomaly and most likely will not be reelected.
- telotortium 4y agoAh, just like the US - the progressive areas report last, so they have an opportunity to "fix" the vote. This is what a lot of conservatives in the US believe anyway. I don't think the 2020 election was stolen, but I think it's worth assuaging these concerns by changing procedures so that all in-person and mail-in votes received on Election Day report at exactly the same time.
- ghayes 4y agoJust for context, based on previous elections you should expect 110-120MM+ total votes once it is complete.
- namenotrequired 4y agoLula just passed Bolsonaro a few minutes ago.
- ddoolin 4y agoIs apuration an English word? Doesn't seem to turn up anywhere. Some results in French but the definition is not clear.
- boredemployee 4y ago
- geek_at 4y agotrue for most countries
- boredemployee 4y agonot sure if the other hackers agree tho
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- tenpies 4y agoI am amazed to find people cheering for Lula. Not that Bolsonaro is a good choice, but you really should read up on Lula. The US media reduces this as Left vs Right, but it's more like horribly corrupt, racist, opportunist with a thin veneer of Left, vs horribly corrupt and military-backed Right. Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva#Corruption_scandals_and_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva#Corr... And to be clear, my point is that Brazilians find themselves in an election that is oddly similar to the US election: a choice between two awful candidates that should both be retired from politics.
- myth_drannon 4y agoThis is the situation that is playing out in many democraties. Is it because the people are more informed that we consider everyone is bad and just choosing the lesser evil out of two?
- kobalsky 4y ago> Is it because the people are more informed that we consider everyone is bad I think it has more to do with disinformation and tribalism being more common now. your political party is like your sports team now, you support it no matter what and the rest are the enemy.
- ShivShankaran 4y ago
- MichaelCollins 4y agoI think most presidents are usually puppets of their advisors and staff. How else could it be? A president can't possibly be an expert in all the domains they have to work in, so they generally rely on advisors to tell them what they should do. Maybe the advisors present a set of choices and let the president pick the one he likes the most, but even then the advisors have a lot of power when they decide which options to present and how to present them.
- ricardobeat 4y agoThis site seems to be slightly rounding the results. Official source is at https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/m/eleicao/resultados https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/m/elei...
- slater 4y agoLula seems to be winning. Phew. Anyone know if it's just first past the post for this round? Or is there a threshold?
- nidnogg 4y agoWhoever is on top wins
- seventytwo 4y agoThanks, Yogi Berra.
- permo-w 4y agoonly marginally
- namenotrequired 4y agoNot a lawyer, but my understanding is, whoever gets more votes wins, regardless of the size of the diffference.
- zagrebian 4y agoSounds like a reasonable system. Maybe USA should adopt.
- pjc50 4y agoI have a suspicion it's going to be a very narrow result, which is contested, with a significant amount of street violence.
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- radicalbyte 4y agoGiven the reports that have been coming from Brazil, this will almost certainly be a "win" for Bolsonaro.
- canadiantim 4y agoNot what the betting markets are showing. Gone up from 70% chance for lula to win to 93% in last couple of hours.
- pjc50 4y agoIs there a market on Bolsonaro not conceding?
- radicalbyte 4y agoIt just ticked over to Lula after I posted - and I'm super happy to see that he now has a 1% margin with 90% of the regions in. Hopefully we'll have the win confirmed within the hour :)
- knorker 4y agoHe's just lost the lead, though.
- radicalbyte 4y agoThank goodness! Twitter has been a horror story of voter suppression and that made me very sceptical.
- boredemployee 4y agoA brazilian friend always say that many families in Brazil are split because of the elections. That's just crazy. The power of fake news and social media are destroying our civilization.
- zagrebian 4y agoCan we get some no-internet or at least low-internet communities, please? Amish 2.0. I don’t even want to bring up children in this post-internet world.
- boredemployee 4y agoYep. Many people that used to love each other split for such nonsense shit
- capableweb 4y agoPolitics and religion (and many other things) have been breaking up families since the dawn of politics and religion. The internet is not to blame here.
- boredemployee 4y agoI wrote almost the same few minutes ago, but my comment got flagged.
- pjc50 4y agoLatin American countries being violently split left/right pre-dates the internet by a long way, sadly.
- zagrebian 4y agoWhat about the USA? Is the polarization now worse than in the ’90s?
- cassianoleal 4y ago
- redox99 4y agoSome futures of Bolsonaro winning[1], if you want to take a look at what that (tiny) market thinks (basically 98% convinced of him losing right now). [1] https://ftx.com/trade/BOLSONARO2022 https://ftx.com/trade/BOLSONARO2022
- winter_blue 4y agoHow does a FTX token like this work? How is it funded? I noticed most purchases started at around $0.30, so if he had indeed won, how would this token have yielded $1 (as the page says)?
- NoboruWataya 4y agoI was also curious so I went to the "learn more" link[0], but it doesn't really answer the questions and seems rather confused. It describes the token as "a futures contract that expires to $1 if Jair Bolsonaro wins the 2022 Brazilian presidential election and $0 otherwise". Leaving aside the fact that it's not really a futures contract (since it's not an obligation to buy or sell any underlying asset), the implication seems to be that it is a financial obligation issued by some entity, presumably FTX itself though it's not clear. There is also this gem: > FTX retains the final right to interpretation of this contract. FTX will not entertain any objections to this contract’s settlement mechanisms. Attempting to object will result in immediate account closure. FTX may modify the terms at any point. By trading these contracts, you are agreeing to abide by FTX’s interpretations of them. [0] https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360060916172 https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360060916172
- weinzierl 4y agoBrazil has electronic voting since 1996 and since 2000 all elections in whole country are electronic. Therefore results come out very quickly. Also, voting is mandatory in Brazil for literate voters between 18 and 70. There are consequences if you don't vote, ranging from difficulty renewing your passport to losing your job if you work for the government. If you can justify your absence you can do so conveniently with the e-Titulo app however.
- bombcar 4y agoIs voting "no contest" an option in a run-off like this?
- EL_Loco 4y agoYes, there's a "Blank" option when voting, and there's also a "null" vote, which happens if you vote for a number that's not in the running (each candidate has a number. For example, in this running Lula is 13 and Bolsonaro is 22). Only valid votes are counted, so whoever gets anything over 50% of the valid votes win.
- bombcar 4y agoI'm seeing 3 million Nulo votes, which is way more than the margin of victory. Interesting.
- nathanlied 4y agoIt's always an option, I believe. You must vote, but you're not forced to vote for any candidate.
- cassianoleal 4y agoIt's important to say that if you fail to vote, the fine is R$3.50 or around US$0.66.
- atdrummond 4y agoIs it common for there to be this many spoiled votes (over 4m at this point)?
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- EL_Loco 4y agoYes, it is. Bear in mind that voting is mandatory in Brazil (for anyone over 18 up to 65 I thinkg. 16 and older can vote but is not mandatory). Also, most people don't know, even brazilians, but if you don't vote and don't have a valid justification for not voting, the fine you pay is very, very, cheap. Like less than 1 USD.
- tchaffee 4y agoThat's not cheap for the millions earning less than $200 a month.
- EL_Loco 4y agoI just checked, it's USD 0.66 (sixty-six cents), or 3.5 Brazilian Reais. That's a cheap fine even by brazilian poverty levels. The most annoying thing about not voting is not the cheap fine, it's the things you can't do if you don't get it sorted out (either by paying the fine or by presenting a valid reason for not voting): you can't work in the public sector, you can't get a passport, etc.
- EL_Loco 4y agoLula technically won at this time, the news is just out.
- 627467 4y agoSeeing many reacting to large number of blank/spoiled votes. For a speculative scenario where the proportion of blank/spoiled votes gains an absolute majority, read Saramago's Essay on lucidity