8 ms·

Numbers: - Q4 wearables of $9.6B, beats est byu close to $1B - Q4 Services Rev fo $19.2B short of Est by $800M - Q4 iphone Rev of $42.6B meets Est - Q4 ipad

Numbers: - Q4 wearables of $9.6B, beats est byu close to $1B - Q4 Services Rev fo $19.2B short of Est by $800M - Q4 iphone Rev of $42.6B meets Est - Q4 ipad Rev of $7.2B, short of Est by $600M - Q4 Rev of $90.2B beats Est by $2B, that also means its up 8ish% YoY - Q4 Mac Revenue of $11.5B, beats by $2B, nice, forgot they make computers;) - China Rev of $15.5B, this is interesting, AAPL clearly has alot of China exposure in a time when that can go away in an instant. - declared a cash div of $0.23/share Interesting: - AAPL hiking prices on Apple One, up $2, Music up $1/month, TV up $2, - they generated over $24B in cash - they returned $29B to investors this quarter, wow, them and MSFT and cash flow machines, maybe the only two tech companies you want to hodl right now - they have only spent $300M on acquisitions this year, that doesn't seem like alot. Watch for: - lots of currency exposure in this company, does the USD strength help or hurt them, or are they really good at hedging currency risk? - AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year. Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about here:) - $3 trillion in market cap has been lost in the past year among 7 of the biggest stocks. $GOOG $MSFT $META $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $AAPL( from twitter) - from bloomberg, Maestri said Apple will likely see 10 percentage points of currency impact in the first quarter. That is alot, and a significant headwind. That could be an entire paypal worth of currency drag Guidance provided by AAPL - revenue growth will decrease going into Q1 - mac revenue to decline substantially

pavlov 4y ago
So Apple Watch and AirPods is almost as big a business as the Mac. Wow, I didn’t realize that. Quite a vindication of Tim Cook’s decade at the helm.
- leokennis 4y ago
  Don’t forget Tim Cook also brought you crummy gambling ads next to gambling addiction recovery apps on your $1500 phone.
  - jshzglr 4y ago
    Although this is not ideal, it's also basically not an issue for me. I spend approximately 5 min a month in the App Store. However, I do a perceive a slight sheen on the slope.
  - pavlov 4y ago
    Only if you open the App Store… Which I practically never do. The apps on my phone have been essentially the same for years. If I ever install something, it’s probably through a web link or QR code that goes straight to the right app. The App Store is clearly a big wasted opportunity. 12 years ago I was actually eager to find new apps there. Why did Apple let it become a slum?
    - boringg 4y ago
      Wow I really never spent time thinking about it as a product but yeah it really was a wasted opportunity. Discovery is terrible and the quality of a lot of the apps are poor. It's obviously not an easy problem to solve but still I only go to the App Store to specifically get the app that I need.
      - ghaff 4y ago
        >It's obviously not an easy problem to solve It probably is at least relatively. The problem is that you (or at least a lot of people) wouldn't like the answer. Make it a very curated marketplace. Yes, that would take some labor but you can also take into account ratings etc. (Though not sure how to deal with the legit crappy online banking app that people give low-ratings too.) But cue the outrage over my app dropped below a 4.0 rating and Apple kicked me out of the App Store. Or Apple decided I wasn't popular enough. Or any of the other ways in which curation produces losers that will be at least somewhat arbitrary at the margins.
        js2 4y ago
        You have two tabs: curated, and what's popular. Across all of the apps that I use to consume content, I only know one app that does this well: Criterion. Here, look: https://www.criterionchannel.com/browse https://www.criterionchannel.com/browse First thing to note. You can browse w/o having to create an account! You know what else Criterion does? Rather, what it doesn't do? It doesn't cut off the end of movies at the credits to spam me with what it thinks I want to watch next. There's no "you may like this other thing" based on my watch history. Rather, content is grouped already based on attributes of the movies, not based on my watch history. Criterion cares about movies and about me as a movie watcher, and it shows. I will pay Criterion $99/year till the end of time. The only thing I'd like them to improve is their streaming quality a bit. The video stream is okay, but none of the soundtracks are anything but stereo at best, even for movies they also sell as Blu-ray that have multi-channel DTS soundtracks.
- nekoashide 4y ago
  To the regular consumer both of those things are tied to the same ecosystem as the iPhone and people want to be seen in public with the latest gadgets. I'm not sure people feel that way about buying a new Mac.
  - asdff 4y ago
    Most iphone users use a case, then it looks like every one made in the last 5 years
- tomxor 4y ago
  > Quite a vindication of Tim Cook’s decade at the helm. Agreed, if all you care about is Apple getting richer, he's done an outstanding job.
  - grecy 4y ago
    And making the best Macs of all time (and best laptops in the industry), and the best wireless headphones, and the phone with the biggest market share (one measure of best). I think Tim Cook’s Apple is doing very well
    - tomxor 4y ago
      We have very different definitions of "best".
      - tomxor 4y ago
        wow what a fucking applefanboy fest it is in here... grow up guys, people have different opinions.
- dumpsterdiver 4y ago
  I used to blame Tim for design decisions that lead to the keyboard fiasco and the touchbar (I just felt like it never would have happened if Jobs was still there). After seeing the tremendous success that he's lead the company to my view has softened a bit. Even if those atrocities might have been avoided if Jobs was still around, there's no denying at this point that Tim was the right choice for CEO.
  - sumedh 4y ago
    > I used to blame Tim for design decisions that lead to the keyboard fiasco and the touchbar Was that Tim or Ive?
    - dumpsterdiver 4y ago
      Tim was CEO when I personally noticed the keyboard issue on my own devices, and I admit I wasn't paying much attention before I started having problems. I really don't know if Tim made that call or not, I only know that he was around to blame when it affected me.
- tsunamifury 4y ago
  This is a vindication for Johnny Ive, who completely founded pitched and launched the projects. Cook is a vision less hack who is chased off the golden goose.
such12 4y ago
By “est”, you mean estimates made by people who have nothing to do with the company, not by Apple themselves.
- chollida1 4y ago
  Somewhat, they are typically generated by the analysts whose job it is to follow the company. However, Those analysts typically get their numbers in large part by talking to the investor relations/CFO of these companies so the estimates are usually pretty good.
  - such12 4y ago
    Apple has declined to provide guidance for some time now.
    - chollida1 4y ago
      somewhat. They still provide some guidance on numbers both magnitude and direction, but don't release actual estimates. I'm confused now. You claimed to not really understand who makes these estimates and have no knowledge about how they are formed but it sounds like you do know a tiny bit about guidance? I mean you literally asked how these estimates were created?
      - such12 4y ago
        > I'm confused now. Agreed. > You claimed to not really understand who makes these estimates and have no knowledge about how they are formed but it sounds like you do know a tiny bit about guidance? Where do you think I made this claim?
      - such12 4y ago
        Another reply since you edited your comment to add this: > I mean you literally asked how these estimates were created? Honestly, you genuinely seem confused. Where do you think I asked that question?
bergenty 4y ago
What a company.
tomcam 4y ago
I will admit publicly this post is so terse yet comprehensive I am aggressively searching your history on this site for more nuggets like this one. UPDATE …and, not disappointed. World-class commentary. Not sure how PP flew under my radar so long.
- agumonkey 4y ago
  better than a google search
- chollida1 4y ago
  appreciate that, thank you!!
  - tomcam 4y ago
    I would love any personal background you’re willing to share just because your writeups are lapidary. Do you do this professionally? how do you decide what to cover? Seems like a broad array of tech stocks but maybe you cover other companies that you just don’t mention here at hacker news? Again, absolutely none of my business. I’m just fascinated with how great minds operate.
- asadlionpk 4y ago
  Agreed! Is there a website that does this style of commentary for (tech) stocks? All I see is seo spam when looking.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  Could easily be a SAAS
  - ldayley 4y ago
    There are a few big ones out there. For example, one of them made Mike Bloomberg a billionaire.
- ralfd 4y ago
  > Not sure how PP flew under my radar so long. Apple? People? What do you mean with PP?
CamperBob2 4y ago
You sound like someone who likes to get the details right. "A lot" is two words.
- chollida1 4y ago
  ha, thanks!!
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  Complimenting while correcting. Nice. I may have to try that sometime ;-)
jorvi 4y ago
> or are they really good at hedging currency risk How would they be exposed on this, long-term? Euro stronger than dollar: convert prices 1-1. I saw someone do a calculation that EU customers overpaid ~38% (!) on Macbooks in 2009. Yes, that's with VAT (sales tax) removed. Dollar stronger than euro: immediately horrendously jack up the prices.
rcarr 4y ago
> AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year. Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about here:) Didn’t they have over a hundred billion in cash reserves a while back? This seems significantly low compared to what it used to be. Mac revenue will be down next year but whenever they release the M3 on the 3nm node I think they’ll have another bumper year. Probably 2024. Also Apple Glass is coming next year. I can see uptake on that being a lot quicker than Apple Watch but all depends on pricing, especially going into a global recession. If it’s over a $1000 it’ll flop. If it’s $500 it’ll do well. Edit: looks like apples cash reserves peaked around 2019 at $107 billion dollars. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on-hand https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on...
- nomel 4y ago
  > If it’s over a $1000 it’ll flop. If it’s $500 it’ll do well. I think we'll have to wait to see what the capabilities are. If it can replace an iPhone, $1000 would be incredible. $500 is only double the price of AirPods Pro, so functionality would have to be pretty limited.
  - highwaylights 4y ago
    Maybe, but Apple Watch was a device you could buy on day one and be pretty confident in - at least in terms of what you were getting and that it would work for what it is. Apple Glass at $1k is not something I could buy day one even if I really liked the promo video. I'd need to see some reviews after weeks and how well the first version works before jumping in - I imagine a lot of people would feel that way - because it seems like something that could so easily just not quite work. (I don't mean not work in the full-of-bugs way, more like the it-was-a-better-idea-on-paper way).
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - rcarr 4y ago
    I agree somewhat, in that if the capabilities are shown to be indispensable to achieving a person’s goals or the product becomes a new social norm like smart phones then people may be willing to spend that much. But the $1000 barrier is a steep one. There’s a lot of push back for that on phones as it is and they’re a practical necessity in modern society. It’s going to take a lot of time for Apple Glass to build up the ecosystem to the point where it meets that indispensable criteria and that time will only increase if there are less users on the platform due to high entry costs. I bought a 1st gen Apple Watch and ended up selling it shortly after because I just didn’t use it. The first gen was a pretty terrible product. It’s come on a long way but it’s only now with the Ultra watch that I’d consider buying again. That’s seven years and I’m a tech person. Your average guy in the street is less inclined to want to purchase.
arberx 4y ago
> AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year. Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about here:) This is the lowest cash level since 2014. Actually, concerning going into potentially a recession.
- grecy 4y ago
  With inflation what it is, don’t you actually want to be holding less cash?
  - Rury 4y ago
    Inflation is a lagging metric. Not a forward looking metric. Hypothetically, todays inflation could be 10%, and if within the next year broad market prices drop 30% YOY, next year inflation numbers would report negative. Meaning you would have been better off holding cash when the inflation numbers were previously stated to be 10%.
- pertymcpert 4y ago
  They can issue more equity if they need to.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
modeless 4y ago
Forget the China revenue, what about the manufacturing? How would Apple survive at all if the US and China were cut off from each other?
- bergenty 4y ago
  Slowly shifting the ship to India and Vietnam but it’s going to take time.
ijustwanttovote 4y ago
> chollida1 can i subscribe to this newsletter
ksec 4y ago
Still not a single crack in its business. And finally making inroads in SEA and India. A company that is beautifully packaged but arguably has lost most of its soul. And is strategically building up the Chinese Supply Chain and helping them to move up its value chain. While presenting itself as the defender of Fundamental Human Right.
oars 4y ago
Great comment summarizing Apple financials, thank you.
retinaros 4y ago
next numbers on iphone 14 will be bad. the phones are much more expensive in europe than they were a few years ago. exanging my 12pro for a 14 pro costs me 500€$ in the US and 800$ in europe.

pavlov 4y ago

So Apple Watch and AirPods is almost as big a business as the Mac. Wow, I didn’t realize that. Quite a vindication of Tim Cook’s decade at the helm.

leokennis 4y ago
Don’t forget Tim Cook also brought you crummy gambling ads next to gambling addiction recovery apps on your $1500 phone.
- jshzglr 4y ago
  Although this is not ideal, it's also basically not an issue for me. I spend approximately 5 min a month in the App Store. However, I do a perceive a slight sheen on the slope.
- pavlov 4y ago
  Only if you open the App Store… Which I practically never do. The apps on my phone have been essentially the same for years. If I ever install something, it’s probably through a web link or QR code that goes straight to the right app. The App Store is clearly a big wasted opportunity. 12 years ago I was actually eager to find new apps there. Why did Apple let it become a slum?
  - boringg 4y ago
    Wow I really never spent time thinking about it as a product but yeah it really was a wasted opportunity. Discovery is terrible and the quality of a lot of the apps are poor. It's obviously not an easy problem to solve but still I only go to the App Store to specifically get the app that I need.
    - ghaff 4y ago
      >It's obviously not an easy problem to solve It probably is at least relatively. The problem is that you (or at least a lot of people) wouldn't like the answer. Make it a very curated marketplace. Yes, that would take some labor but you can also take into account ratings etc. (Though not sure how to deal with the legit crappy online banking app that people give low-ratings too.) But cue the outrage over my app dropped below a 4.0 rating and Apple kicked me out of the App Store. Or Apple decided I wasn't popular enough. Or any of the other ways in which curation produces losers that will be at least somewhat arbitrary at the margins.
      - js2 4y ago
        You have two tabs: curated, and what's popular. Across all of the apps that I use to consume content, I only know one app that does this well: Criterion. Here, look: https://www.criterionchannel.com/browse https://www.criterionchannel.com/browse First thing to note. You can browse w/o having to create an account! You know what else Criterion does? Rather, what it doesn't do? It doesn't cut off the end of movies at the credits to spam me with what it thinks I want to watch next. There's no "you may like this other thing" based on my watch history. Rather, content is grouped already based on attributes of the movies, not based on my watch history. Criterion cares about movies and about me as a movie watcher, and it shows. I will pay Criterion $99/year till the end of time. The only thing I'd like them to improve is their streaming quality a bit. The video stream is okay, but none of the soundtracks are anything but stereo at best, even for movies they also sell as Blu-ray that have multi-channel DTS soundtracks.
nekoashide 4y ago
To the regular consumer both of those things are tied to the same ecosystem as the iPhone and people want to be seen in public with the latest gadgets. I'm not sure people feel that way about buying a new Mac.
- asdff 4y ago
  Most iphone users use a case, then it looks like every one made in the last 5 years
tomxor 4y ago
> Quite a vindication of Tim Cook’s decade at the helm. Agreed, if all you care about is Apple getting richer, he's done an outstanding job.
- grecy 4y ago
  And making the best Macs of all time (and best laptops in the industry), and the best wireless headphones, and the phone with the biggest market share (one measure of best). I think Tim Cook’s Apple is doing very well
  - tomxor 4y ago
    We have very different definitions of "best".
    - tomxor 4y ago
      wow what a fucking applefanboy fest it is in here... grow up guys, people have different opinions.
dumpsterdiver 4y ago
I used to blame Tim for design decisions that lead to the keyboard fiasco and the touchbar (I just felt like it never would have happened if Jobs was still there). After seeing the tremendous success that he's lead the company to my view has softened a bit. Even if those atrocities might have been avoided if Jobs was still around, there's no denying at this point that Tim was the right choice for CEO.
- sumedh 4y ago
  > I used to blame Tim for design decisions that lead to the keyboard fiasco and the touchbar Was that Tim or Ive?
  - dumpsterdiver 4y ago
    Tim was CEO when I personally noticed the keyboard issue on my own devices, and I admit I wasn't paying much attention before I started having problems. I really don't know if Tim made that call or not, I only know that he was around to blame when it affected me.
tsunamifury 4y ago
This is a vindication for Johnny Ive, who completely founded pitched and launched the projects. Cook is a vision less hack who is chased off the golden goose.

such12 4y ago

By “est”, you mean estimates made by people who have nothing to do with the company, not by Apple themselves.

chollida1 4y ago
Somewhat, they are typically generated by the analysts whose job it is to follow the company. However, Those analysts typically get their numbers in large part by talking to the investor relations/CFO of these companies so the estimates are usually pretty good.
- such12 4y ago
  Apple has declined to provide guidance for some time now.
  - chollida1 4y ago
    somewhat. They still provide some guidance on numbers both magnitude and direction, but don't release actual estimates. I'm confused now. You claimed to not really understand who makes these estimates and have no knowledge about how they are formed but it sounds like you do know a tiny bit about guidance? I mean you literally asked how these estimates were created?
    - such12 4y ago
      > I'm confused now. Agreed. > You claimed to not really understand who makes these estimates and have no knowledge about how they are formed but it sounds like you do know a tiny bit about guidance? Where do you think I made this claim?
    - such12 4y ago
      Another reply since you edited your comment to add this: > I mean you literally asked how these estimates were created? Honestly, you genuinely seem confused. Where do you think I asked that question?

bergenty 4y ago

What a company.

tomcam 4y ago

I will admit publicly this post is so terse yet comprehensive I am aggressively searching your history on this site for more nuggets like this one. UPDATE …and, not disappointed. World-class commentary. Not sure how PP flew under my radar so long.

agumonkey 4y ago
better than a google search
chollida1 4y ago
appreciate that, thank you!!
- tomcam 4y ago
  I would love any personal background you’re willing to share just because your writeups are lapidary. Do you do this professionally? how do you decide what to cover? Seems like a broad array of tech stocks but maybe you cover other companies that you just don’t mention here at hacker news? Again, absolutely none of my business. I’m just fascinated with how great minds operate.
asadlionpk 4y ago
Agreed! Is there a website that does this style of commentary for (tech) stocks? All I see is seo spam when looking.
actionfromafar 4y ago
Could easily be a SAAS
- ldayley 4y ago
  There are a few big ones out there. For example, one of them made Mike Bloomberg a billionaire.
ralfd 4y ago
> Not sure how PP flew under my radar so long. Apple? People? What do you mean with PP?

CamperBob2 4y ago

You sound like someone who likes to get the details right. "A lot" is two words.

chollida1 4y ago
ha, thanks!!
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
Complimenting while correcting. Nice. I may have to try that sometime ;-)

jorvi 4y ago

> or are they really good at hedging currency risk How would they be exposed on this, long-term? Euro stronger than dollar: convert prices 1-1. I saw someone do a calculation that EU customers overpaid ~38% (!) on Macbooks in 2009. Yes, that's with VAT (sales tax) removed. Dollar stronger than euro: immediately horrendously jack up the prices.

rcarr 4y ago

> AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year. Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about here:) Didn’t they have over a hundred billion in cash reserves a while back? This seems significantly low compared to what it used to be. Mac revenue will be down next year but whenever they release the M3 on the 3nm node I think they’ll have another bumper year. Probably 2024. Also Apple Glass is coming next year. I can see uptake on that being a lot quicker than Apple Watch but all depends on pricing, especially going into a global recession. If it’s over a $1000 it’ll flop. If it’s $500 it’ll do well. Edit: looks like apples cash reserves peaked around 2019 at $107 billion dollars. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on-hand https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on...

nomel 4y ago
> If it’s over a $1000 it’ll flop. If it’s $500 it’ll do well. I think we'll have to wait to see what the capabilities are. If it can replace an iPhone, $1000 would be incredible. $500 is only double the price of AirPods Pro, so functionality would have to be pretty limited.
- highwaylights 4y ago
  Maybe, but Apple Watch was a device you could buy on day one and be pretty confident in - at least in terms of what you were getting and that it would work for what it is. Apple Glass at $1k is not something I could buy day one even if I really liked the promo video. I'd need to see some reviews after weeks and how well the first version works before jumping in - I imagine a lot of people would feel that way - because it seems like something that could so easily just not quite work. (I don't mean not work in the full-of-bugs way, more like the it-was-a-better-idea-on-paper way).
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- rcarr 4y ago
  I agree somewhat, in that if the capabilities are shown to be indispensable to achieving a person’s goals or the product becomes a new social norm like smart phones then people may be willing to spend that much. But the $1000 barrier is a steep one. There’s a lot of push back for that on phones as it is and they’re a practical necessity in modern society. It’s going to take a lot of time for Apple Glass to build up the ecosystem to the point where it meets that indispensable criteria and that time will only increase if there are less users on the platform due to high entry costs. I bought a 1st gen Apple Watch and ended up selling it shortly after because I just didn’t use it. The first gen was a pretty terrible product. It’s come on a long way but it’s only now with the Ultra watch that I’d consider buying again. That’s seven years and I’m a tech person. Your average guy in the street is less inclined to want to purchase.

arberx 4y ago

> AAPLE has $23B in cash, down 1/3 from this time last year. Mostly given back to investors. Probably nothing to worry about here:) This is the lowest cash level since 2014. Actually, concerning going into potentially a recession.

grecy 4y ago
With inflation what it is, don’t you actually want to be holding less cash?
- Rury 4y ago
  Inflation is a lagging metric. Not a forward looking metric. Hypothetically, todays inflation could be 10%, and if within the next year broad market prices drop 30% YOY, next year inflation numbers would report negative. Meaning you would have been better off holding cash when the inflation numbers were previously stated to be 10%.
pertymcpert 4y ago
They can issue more equity if they need to.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

modeless 4y ago

Forget the China revenue, what about the manufacturing? How would Apple survive at all if the US and China were cut off from each other?

bergenty 4y ago
Slowly shifting the ship to India and Vietnam but it’s going to take time.

ijustwanttovote 4y ago

> chollida1 can i subscribe to this newsletter

ksec 4y ago

Still not a single crack in its business. And finally making inroads in SEA and India. A company that is beautifully packaged but arguably has lost most of its soul. And is strategically building up the Chinese Supply Chain and helping them to move up its value chain. While presenting itself as the defender of Fundamental Human Right.

oars 4y ago

Great comment summarizing Apple financials, thank you.

retinaros 4y ago

next numbers on iphone 14 will be bad. the phones are much more expensive in europe than they were a few years ago. exanging my 12pro for a 14 pro costs me 500€$ in the US and 800$ in europe.