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It's a bubble, 99/100 crypto companies are going to crash and burn, or already have. If you manage to land on the 1/100 that actually does something useful and

It's a bubble, 99/100 crypto companies are going to crash and burn, or already have. If you manage to land on the 1/100 that actually does something useful and survives, well, better odds than the lottery I suppose.

indy 4y ago
Sounds a lot like Silicon Valley circa. 1999
- sirwhinesalot 4y ago
  That's my feeling, you might pick the company that becomes the google of crypto, or you might end up in one of the ones you haven't even heard about because they disappeared without a trace.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  Except that cryptomoney isn't adding insane amounts of value in any niche, outside of extortion and evading government controls.
  - indy 4y ago
    Evading government controls sounds like a valuable attribute.
    - marcosdumay 4y ago
      Yes and no, both. That really depends on what government and what control. But anyway, the amount of value you can provide there is severely limited, as you can only at most undo the value your government is destroying. You can't ever get in a better situation than what you would get with a competent liberal-ish government and no cryptomoney. That means some business can exist there, and a small amount of it can even be morally acceptable. But it is completely different from the internet boom.
      - RestlessMind 4y ago
        > You can't ever get in a better situation than what you would get with a competent liberal-ish government and no cryptomoney. And what if you have only an incompetent authoritarian government? How would you help fight citizens of those governments? Crypto is a great tool there. Just because there are insufferable crypto-bros peddling shitcoins to make a quick buck doesn't mean entire Crypto field is useless. That'd be like blacklisting the entire data mining field because surveillance tech and adtech exist.
        marcosdumay 4y ago
        > And what if you have only an incompetent authoritarian government? Then cryptomoney can give you a limited, non-zero amount of value. Still less than fixing the government, but it is easier to deploy. Even then, comparing it with the internet boom is bullshit.
        RestlessMind 4y ago
        > Then cryptomoney can give you a limited, non-zero amount of value. Glad we agree on this. Everything else (eg. comparison with internet boom) is a matter of degree and only time will tell.
    - achenet 4y ago
      oh hi there, would you like to hire a few super expensive accountants to optimize taxes like the other big corporations? (in case it isn't obvious, yes, I fully agree that evading government control/taxation is a hugely lucrative market).
  - RestlessMind 4y ago
    Ability to evade government controls sounds like a great thing in a lot of circumstances. I have compiled a list of specific examples around that topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 Why do you think governments are always right? Haven't you learned any history?
rvz 4y ago
> It's a bubble, 99/100 crypto companies are going to crash and burn, or already have. I'm sure this is the 990th time that I have heard this. The fact is, it isn't going away and it seems even more crypto companies have taken interest in using Rust and that is good. Even some (crypto) companies are sponsoring the Rust Foundation as silver members. Nothing wrong with that. [0] [0] https://foundation.rust-lang.org/members https://foundation.rust-lang.org/members
- paulgb 4y ago
  VC typically has an investment horizon of 10 years, and the latest crypto surge is only ~2 years old. A lot of the companies from the last (circa 2018) ICO bubble did crash and burn. I don’t think it can be taken as fact that the ones from this round are “here to stay”.
- api 4y ago
  What are crypto companies doing that I should care about? Give me something I could go check out and use that is: (1) Not speculation, gambling, or some variation thereof. (2) Useful for something other than crypto itself. (3) Actually works and can be used today. (4) Continues to make sense even in a crypto bear market. (In other words: I will still buy milk even if the US dollar is falling because the point is the milk not the dollar. What in crypto is like that?)
  - RestlessMind 4y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 I prepared that post since the question you posed comes up every week here, if not more frequently.
    - api 4y ago
      That’s cryptocurrency in its original use case: virtual money. This was all technically possible in 2009. What I was getting at was… what’s new? Billions and billions have been poured into all kinds of app development and R&D in this space and all we have is still what we had when Bitcoin launched. What are all these people in crypto building? Where is it? Where can I use it? Imagine if 25 years after the dot com era after hundreds of billions had been spent we still just had e-mail, static html4, and text chat protocols over dialup modem.
littlestymaar 4y ago
True, but that's the investor's problem, not the employees. They'll end up losing their jobs in the end and move on, but it's not like people in other tech company never lose their job either. The good thing when it eventually happens is that there will be a lot of senior Rust developers that are needed by most company to even start doing things in Rust. Is their work pointless? Sure. But aren't Googlers' jobs not pointless too? That's the sad state of the 21th century: most people have a bullshit job but they need it to pay their mortgage.
RestlessMind 4y ago

indy 4y ago

Sounds a lot like Silicon Valley circa. 1999

sirwhinesalot 4y ago
That's my feeling, you might pick the company that becomes the google of crypto, or you might end up in one of the ones you haven't even heard about because they disappeared without a trace.
marcosdumay 4y ago
Except that cryptomoney isn't adding insane amounts of value in any niche, outside of extortion and evading government controls.
- indy 4y ago
  Evading government controls sounds like a valuable attribute.
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    Yes and no, both. That really depends on what government and what control. But anyway, the amount of value you can provide there is severely limited, as you can only at most undo the value your government is destroying. You can't ever get in a better situation than what you would get with a competent liberal-ish government and no cryptomoney. That means some business can exist there, and a small amount of it can even be morally acceptable. But it is completely different from the internet boom.
    - RestlessMind 4y ago
      > You can't ever get in a better situation than what you would get with a competent liberal-ish government and no cryptomoney. And what if you have only an incompetent authoritarian government? How would you help fight citizens of those governments? Crypto is a great tool there. Just because there are insufferable crypto-bros peddling shitcoins to make a quick buck doesn't mean entire Crypto field is useless. That'd be like blacklisting the entire data mining field because surveillance tech and adtech exist.
      - marcosdumay 4y ago
        > And what if you have only an incompetent authoritarian government? Then cryptomoney can give you a limited, non-zero amount of value. Still less than fixing the government, but it is easier to deploy. Even then, comparing it with the internet boom is bullshit.
        RestlessMind 4y ago
        > Then cryptomoney can give you a limited, non-zero amount of value. Glad we agree on this. Everything else (eg. comparison with internet boom) is a matter of degree and only time will tell.
  - achenet 4y ago
    oh hi there, would you like to hire a few super expensive accountants to optimize taxes like the other big corporations? (in case it isn't obvious, yes, I fully agree that evading government control/taxation is a hugely lucrative market).
- RestlessMind 4y ago
  Ability to evade government controls sounds like a great thing in a lot of circumstances. I have compiled a list of specific examples around that topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 Why do you think governments are always right? Haven't you learned any history?

rvz 4y ago

> It's a bubble, 99/100 crypto companies are going to crash and burn, or already have. I'm sure this is the 990th time that I have heard this. The fact is, it isn't going away and it seems even more crypto companies have taken interest in using Rust and that is good. Even some (crypto) companies are sponsoring the Rust Foundation as silver members. Nothing wrong with that. [0] [0] https://foundation.rust-lang.org/members https://foundation.rust-lang.org/members

paulgb 4y ago
VC typically has an investment horizon of 10 years, and the latest crypto surge is only ~2 years old. A lot of the companies from the last (circa 2018) ICO bubble did crash and burn. I don’t think it can be taken as fact that the ones from this round are “here to stay”.
api 4y ago
What are crypto companies doing that I should care about? Give me something I could go check out and use that is: (1) Not speculation, gambling, or some variation thereof. (2) Useful for something other than crypto itself. (3) Actually works and can be used today. (4) Continues to make sense even in a crypto bear market. (In other words: I will still buy milk even if the US dollar is falling because the point is the milk not the dollar. What in crypto is like that?)
- RestlessMind 4y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 I prepared that post since the question you posed comes up every week here, if not more frequently.
  - api 4y ago
    That’s cryptocurrency in its original use case: virtual money. This was all technically possible in 2009. What I was getting at was… what’s new? Billions and billions have been poured into all kinds of app development and R&D in this space and all we have is still what we had when Bitcoin launched. What are all these people in crypto building? Where is it? Where can I use it? Imagine if 25 years after the dot com era after hundreds of billions had been spent we still just had e-mail, static html4, and text chat protocols over dialup modem.

littlestymaar 4y ago

True, but that's the investor's problem, not the employees. They'll end up losing their jobs in the end and move on, but it's not like people in other tech company never lose their job either. The good thing when it eventually happens is that there will be a lot of senior Rust developers that are needed by most company to even start doing things in Rust. Is their work pointless? Sure. But aren't Googlers' jobs not pointless too? That's the sad state of the 21th century: most people have a bullshit job but they need it to pay their mortgage.

RestlessMind 4y ago