30 ms·
The Pound's Warning for Europe
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago[flagged]
- CaptainMarvel 4y agoNot a single sentence of this article refers to renewables.
- xwdv 4y agoI think it’s implied.
- simonh 4y agoI don't think so, he explicitly states exactly what he thinks Europe should have done, and that's negotiate with Putin. Out and out victim blaming.
- johannes1234321 4y agoThere were tons of attempts of negotiation. So mich that the long table became a meme. But if a party has aims which are unacceptable for the others, there isn't much negotiations can lead to.
- simonh 4y agoRight, by negotiate with Putin he means accept whatever terms Putin demanded.
- ClumsyPilot 4y agoRussian displomats demanded denazification of Ukraine. When pressed on the details, they didn't know what it meant. They can't know because they have a paranoid, ramblish (did you see the recent speech?) geneatric emperror and slave-ish, self desteuctive subservience.
- petre 4y agoOne does not simply negotiate with the Russians. It only works until after the've been beaten them and they have their back to the wall.
- Bud 4y agoAs xwdv points out, it's implied, inescapably, by two points: 1) it blames the EU, somehow, instead of Russia 2) if by some magical thinking one avoids blaming Russia somehow, the only other possible thing the EU could have done wrong is to have not somehow built a lot more of its own fossil-fuel infrastructure and production, earlier. Which isn't really a strong argument, but if you're trying really hard to avoid admitting that Russia is the problem, and you have a bone to pick about relying more on fossil fuels, that's the only trick in the bag.
- adventured 4y agoRussia is the primary problem. The secondary problem - as it pertains to the energy context - was the EU's (affluent Europe more broadly) wide failure to understand or accept what Russia is (and what consequences the Russian culture would inevitably produce again for Europe, namely wars of conquest against their neighbors).
- Schroedingersat 4y agoIf they'd actually done the thing everyone is blaming it on (ie. spend vastly more on renewables than fossil fuels or nuclear) it wouldn't be a problem
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- tobbob 4y agoWhat do you mean by all that?
- HillRat 4y agoIt's more about Pilkington's longstanding right-wing anti-American, Russophilic bias; even as late as August he was trumpeting the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a stunning success and Russian weapons as qualitatively superior to US systems, even as Ukraine -- with a tiny portion of NATO's arsenal and a fraction of the average NATO soldier's training -- was already assaulting into Russian-occupied territory. So pushing energy doomerism (Putin's last card, short of the nuclear ladder, to play against Europe) and blaming Europe for Putin's decision to cut off energy supplies (and pipelines!) is just amplifying the Kremlin's message against the West, something that Pilkington seems very happy to do.
- theprincess 4y agoThanks for pointing this out. The author's other articles remind me of something you'd see from a Russophilic survivalist blogger like Dmitry Orlov. I think the general tone of the world has become biased toward negativity and so anything that predicts doom is getting paid attention and given less critical thought.
- ZeroGravitas 4y agoReplying to myself as I just realised it was written by the same person: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/europe-s-descent-into-deindustrialisation https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/europe-s-descent-into-de...
- jleyank 4y agoPerhaps, but perhaps europe will draw inwards and support its own workers vs buying stuff from outside. Energy, yeah, but aside from foodstuffs what is critical for survival? Better this and previous European actions when faced with shortages…
- llampx 4y agoWhat does Europe manufacture? So much of the products in the supermarkets and department stores and even Euroshops come from outside the EU.
- angulardragon03 4y agoIn 2020, The Netherlands was the second-largest exporter of food (excluding fish) globally, behind only the United States [1]. I would say its fairly rare for me to go to the supermarket here and buy food that was produced outside of Europe. [1] https://www.fao.org/3/cb9928en/cb9928en.pdf https://www.fao.org/3/cb9928en/cb9928en.pdf
- ur-whale 4y ago> In 2020, The Netherlands was the second-largest exporter of food Much of which is produced in greenhouses heated by Russian gas ... not sure what your point is.
- dijit 4y agoNetherlands imports about 20% of it's energy, spiking to 35%: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.IMP.CONS.ZS?locations=NL https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.IMP.CONS.ZS?location... The Netherlands is one of the more energy independent countries in the EU generally speaking. a large percentage of those 20% imports are actually from France.
- shapefrog 4y agoExported €3,428 billion worth of stuff in 2021. Guessing they must make some stuff.
- esotericimpl 4y ago
- sgt101 4y agothe "energy war" isn't an economic blunder, it's a consequence. It's a consequence of politics and and it reveals alot about what is going on under the covers - but the outcome will be simple. We swap growth and prosperity for recession and hard times. But we keep geopolitical independence. The alternative is to go along with the Russians until the next time, when the next time will be far too late.
- throwie_wayward 4y ago
- causi 4y agoIndeed. There is no logical reason to invade Ukraine unless Russia also intends to seize the Suwałki Gap and the Baltic states.
- polishdude20 4y agoUgh. The Suwalki gap? I'll be near that area in the next few weeks. Do I have something to fear?
- gerikson 4y agoDo you think the Russian armed forces can redeploy from Ukraine (while holding onto their invasion gains there) and launch a successful attack against NATO members?
- polishdude20 4y agoNot from Ukraine. I'm not sure if there are forces in the Kaliningrad region though. But you're right. Poland is a NATO country and that would be very unlikely.
- gerikson 4y agoI'm in Sweden and used to worry (and train to resist) a Soviet/Russian air and sea assault on Gotland. I'm a lot less worried now.
- seydor 4y agoNo doubt. Germany , the powerhouse of budget surpluses was relying on unusally cheap russian gas and now that is gone , even if they get gas back russia has no reason to sell it for cheap. This is evidenced by the lack of german solidarity in the energy crisis, the unwillingness to impose price caps at the same time that they are spending $200B in their own market. The cost of war is proving too much for EU
- Zenst 4y agoWas Germany in effect driving the alternative sources of gas up in demand and subsequently price, that caused the energy crisis as electricity linked to price of gas for some mad reason.
- keepquestioning 4y agoI've never seen a better example of a useful idiot for Putin
- jessaustin 4y agoWhat do you think about this guy, or the various experts he quotes: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html
- not__british 4y ago> Europe’s manufacturing base underpins the value of the euro. When this base is obliterated by high energy costs, the euro will sink. Hmm... but when the Euro falls the attractiveness of its exports increases. One consistent thing about these articles is that they fail common sense tests. Anyway, Brexit is almost certainly to blame for the magnitude of the calamity in England. The bigger problem is that nobody buys anything from there, that English industry and innovation have been stagnating for a long time.
- gfguigyutf 4y agoMy reading of this is that high energy costs disable the (production of) supply coming from Europe, such that demand (and the attractiveness of demand for European goods) is irrelevant, because supply is just not there.
- polotics 4y agoThe main problem is that some journalists have read enough economists to be able to pass themselves off as having done the work. When you scratch, there is no quantifying of anything. This article is shock-value based clickbait.
- nobodyandproud 4y agoThe energy costs are passed on—a devalued currency doesn’t help here—and same with raw materials imported from elsewhere.
- kansface 4y agoThat’s normally the story, but probably not the case when you can’t make stuff overnight or move it because energy is too expensive (just for you). You can’t afford to import the stuff you were making because your currency slid 25% which further breaks supply chains fueling more inflation. Inflation goes up with no levers to pull to slow it down (moderate interest rates will send Southern European over the edge). At the same time, central budgets have to get reallocated to just keep citizens alive through winter.
- makomk 4y agoThe problem is that manufacturing those exports requires imported energy which goes up in price every time the Euro sinks in value, and those energy prices are already so much higher than (for example) the USA that it's basically infeasible to manufacture stuff in Europe. The price is only half the story as well, Europe has serious problems with the availability of energy and it probably wouldn't be possible for Germany to import enough energy to keep its industries running at any price.
- eatonphil 4y ago> The answer is obvious: Britain is turning into an economic basket case because of the energy war being waged in Europe. The UK economy has not been doing well since before Russia invaded Ukraine though, after Brexit and after COVID started. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57427997 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57427997 https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-economy-after-brexit https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/uk-and-global-econ...
- shapefrog 4y agoshh, your not meant to say these things out loud. "U.K.’s High Gas Prices to Hurt Consumers All Year, Industry Group Says Rachel Morison 20 January 2022 at 17:43 UTC" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/u-k-s-high-gas-prices-to-hurt-consumers-all-year-industry-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/u-k-s-hig... Gas prices now are around the same levels seen in Q3 2021. Russian invasion of the Ukraine took place on 24 February 2022
- gambiting 4y ago>>Gas prices now are around the same levels seen in Q3 2021. For whom? I'm on a flex tariff for gas, in Q3 2021 was paying about 3p/kWh, now I'm paying 10p/kWh, the price of gas has literally tripled for me and millions of people compared to the same time last year. So yeah, how are they at the same levels?
- iso1631 4y agoSep 2021 Natural Gas Futures reached 300p/therm https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas Which is the same as it was before the "mini budget"
- simonh 4y agoI fail to see the relevance. Household gas prices had already tripled before the mini budget. Nobody’s household gas prices today reflect the price volatility in the last 10 days, the price changes have been in the works for months.
- dcdc123 4y ago> The European energy war of 2022 will almost certainly go down in history, along with the Treaty of Versailles, as one of the worst economic blunders in history. No, it is absolutely necessary. What will go down as one of the worst blunders in history is allowing Europe to become so dependent on a single hostile country for energy.
- pstuart 4y agoThat appears to be the one bright side of the war. Hopefully it will accelerate the migration to renewables.
- vorpalhex 4y agoCan't heat off solar. Not meaningfully in a cold climate.
- euroderf 4y agoFinland is trying heat storage - like the "sand battery" - and should be pushing heat pumps much, much harder than it is.
- dcdc123 4y agoThere is something similar [1] in Nevada, USA that uses molten salt to store energy. I drove through a few months ago and was blown away by it. The top of the tower was so bright that I could see it from the moment it started to crest the horizon. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crescent_Dunes_Solar_Energy_Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crescent_Dunes_Solar_Energy_Pr...
- atemerev 4y agoNuclear is pure heat, though.
- vorpalhex 4y agoHow do you transfer that heat? Every conversion is lossy.
- LastTrain 4y ago> The answer is obvious: Britain is turning into an economic basket case because of the energy war being waged in Europe Who waged that war?
- LastTrain 4y ago> The answer is obvious: Britain is turning into an economic basket case because of the energy war being waged in Europe I'm sorry, but who exactly waged this war?
- mistrial9 4y agothose who do not study history, are doomed to repeat it google search term "great game"
- mellosouls 4y agoActual title: The Pound's Warning for Europe
- incone123 4y agoIndeed.
- polotics 4y agoThis article is very light on data, so I wondered what kind of research it came out of. Most notably this exact quote, fluffy as can be: """If a negotiated settlement took place, Russia would restore the gas.""" There is absolutely no evidence supporting this statement, on both sides of the equation: no indication of what kind of settlement would be offered, nor what would be accepted. So I googled further, and courtesy of nymag: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/what-is-compact-magazine-for.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/what-is-compact-maga...
- moomin 4y agoThis should be the top-rated comment.
- ahoy 4y agoThis magazine is founded by a former NYPost Op-Ed editor & Wall Street Journal columnist. It's not surprising to me that they run, essentially, conservative opinion pieces dressed up as Meaningful Analysis.
- macintux 4y agoIt’s rather unfortunate that appeasing Russian aggression has become part of the conservative mainstream.
- consumer451 4y agoThis is something that truly baffles me. I have some theories of course, but they are near conspiratorial. How did this happen?
- jonathankoren 4y agoCould they even restore the gas now? Two major pipelines have holes in them.
- simonh 4y ago
- kimixa 4y agoNot even mentioning Brexit, possibly the single biggest change in the fundamental economic underpinnings of the UK in the last 50 years, feels deliberately misleading to me. Living in Britain right now, I can tell you nobody I've met believes in capitulating to Russian demands - any dissatisfaction is purely on the reaction to that, and mismanagement of the response. And a completely tone-deaf political stance - the proposed budget just said the quiet parts loud of the general Tory stance and highlighted just how "different" they are to the average man on the street.
- throwaway6734 4y agoKnow that Compact is an authoritarian, illiberal rightwing publication with contributors such as Sohrab Amari. Pro Orban and Pro Putin.
- gadders 4y agoUnfortunately Germany and other companies didn't go green, they just outsourced the gas extraction to other countries.
- WheelsAtLarge 4y agoWhy did Europe become so dependent on Russian Energy? Did it come down to money? At some level I can see Europe thinking that trade would reduce the possibility of war but still how could they have been do gullible? History shows that they can't keep from going to war. It was only a matter of time before they started one again.
- badpun 4y agoIm guessing, it was just short-sightedness and unjustified optimism - "it wasn't a problem until then, so it probably won't be in the future!". The Arabs did the same thing to the US in the 1970ies, US was as unprepared back then.
- WheelsAtLarge 4y agoGood point, sometimes it's hard to see what's right in front of us. Especially, when it's inconvenient to see it.
- theplumber 4y ago>> Why did Europe become so dependent on Russian Energy? For the same reason the U.S became so depended on China for manufacturing of electronics and most of the world on OPEC for energy. These bad actors provide good value for money, at least for the short term.
- pwinnski 4y agoCalling it an "energy war" rather than "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" is disingenuous at best, and combined with other articles by the same writer, it's clear that nothing of value is to be found here.