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Brazilian vote counting (real time)
- frozenlettuce 4y agoAll votes in country should be counted in the next few hours (last one took about 6hrs and people got angry with the delay). The results that are displayed right now are from voters from other countries where voting is already closed.
- frozenlettuce 4y agoThis is now outdated as local votes are already going in.
- pruthvishetty 4y agoAny details on the infrastructure behind this? How are they handling security?
- frozenlettuce 4y agoThat's a sensitive topic, as Bolsonaro has questioning the voting machine security. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_voting_in_Brazil https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_voting_in_Brazil Even Tom Scott's video about electronic voting shows in Brazil with a warning saying that "electronic voting is safe" (the same type of warning that shows up for conspiracy theories). We had no problems with those machines since 1996. My take is that he does that to mobilize his support base. One curious thing is that the centralized voting counting is done with an Oracle system. Some politicians questioned the contracts value, and why AWS or Google cloud weren't considered - authorities argued that only Oracle supported Oracle's cloud : )
- bigbluedots 4y ago> We had no problems with those machines since 1996. None that have been discovered yet at least!
- cassianoleal 4y ago13 elections in one of the largest countries in the world and not a single issue has surfaced. Probability says issues have happened but the fact that none have surfaced suggests they're negligible.
- thaumasiotes 4y ago> We had no problems with those machines since 1996. This is the kind of thinking that gets you to "less than 1% of rape accusations are false". How do you know you don't have any problems?
- frozenlettuce 4y agoEach party has delegates present during vote counting, in state and city level. That only became an issue recently. That said, I do believe that the system would be better if physical counting could be performed as well, to increase public trust and to avoid the same situation in 82 fraud against Brizola.
- tarakat 4y ago> Each party has delegates present during vote counting [..] the system would be better if physical counting could be performed as well If there's no physical counting, then what are the delegates observing? If the machines were compromised, how could they tell?
- Matheus28 4y agoI believe they also have a button to spit out current vote count for each candidate, obviously still possible for the code to detect when that button is being used a lot to check if it's counting properly. It's tricky because votes are meant to be secret (and voters aren't allowed to have proof of who they voted for, so they can't be coerced into revealing it), while at the same time you want the system to be secure.
- frozenlettuce 4y agoYou have the total of votes per machine. In looking at these locations local candidates have a good notion on how well their party is going to perform. Things that call their attention are the "bumps" like the one by the end of last US election. When that happens, they can signal the voting machine to be isolated and call in an electoral judge.
- biscoito 4y agoIt's also nice to note that there have been already security audits on the current system, TPS (The public security test for TSE the Superior Electoral Court) happens every year addressing the security of e-voting in Brazil, for example, on TPS 2017, people managed to find arbitrary code execution in the Urna Eletronica (That's how we call the e-voting system here) Great content to read: https://urnaeletronica.info/ https://urnaeletronica.info/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326261911_Execucao_de_codigo_arbitrario_na_urna_eletronica_brasileira https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326261911_Execucao_... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323470546_The_Return_of_Software_Vulnerabilities_in_the_Brazilian_Voting_Machine https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323470546_The_Retur... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330914587_The_Good_the_Bad_and_the_Ugly_Two_Decades_of_E-Voting_in_Brazil https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330914587_The_Good_...
- gabriel34 4y agoSecurity audits and supervisors from all parties in all steps for starters. The voting machine prints a total for that machine at the same time that the votes are transferred to the central counting, this process is public, the supervisor from each party get a copy of the total, and one copy is publicly affixed at the voting place, so parallel aggregating from the partial counts is possible (and has been done by sampling). Internal counting on the voting machine is somewhat validated by picking random voting machines out of the voting places and conducting a parallel voting, publicly broadcasted, on which known amount of votes for each candidate are input and the result from the machine is compared to the expected. Only thing missing that I can think of is actually doing this parallel voting on the same time and place the voting was expected to take place.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 4y agoIs it winner-takes-all plurality voting or will there be a second vote if no candidate reaches >50%?
- rapfaria 4y agosecond vote between two highest voted if none reaches 50% + 1
- cassianoleal 4y agoTechnically it's >50% even if for less than a whole vote.
- rapfaria 4y agoHow is it possible to have less than a whole vote?
- cassianoleal 4y agoWith an odd number of votes. e.g. if winner has 1000 and the sum of the others is 999, it goes by a half vote.
- amelius 4y agoThat doesn't sound fair to me.
- tremon 4y agoGomes and Tebet drawing votes from Lula doesn't affect the number of votes going to Bolsonaro, right? So whether or not they are on the ballot doesn't affect Bolsonaro's chances of reaching 50%+1 in the first round.
- sofixa 4y agoIt's drastically more fair than the candidate with the most votes, even if it's 30%, winning.
- UncleOxidant 4y agoWhere are these initial votes coming from? They show Bolsonaro about 7% ahead of Lula. But only 1.5% of the vote is in, so I'm guessing it's from more right-leaning areas so far? (given that the polling has consistently showed Lula about 10% head of Bolsonaro in the last couple of months) Edit: follow-on question: are the other candidates there pulling more from Bolsonaro or Lula? Edit2: Looks like both Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet would draw votes form Lula based on the info on them from Wikipedia. They're drawing about 7% of the vote between the two of them so in a runoff between Bolosonaro and Lula so it seems like most of those votes would go to Lula. Still would be very close.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- cardosof 4y agoRicher areas always get counted first.
- soneca 4y agoYes, they are coming from regions of Brazil where Bolsonaro was expected to go better according to the polls.
- cassianoleal 4y agoI reckon a better picture should start to get painted at around 70-75%.
- Qem 4y agoSmall, far away cities, say, in deep Amazon and in northeastern semi-arid, take more time to be counted. Lula electorate is more overwhelming in those areas, as they have more poor people that suffered a lot with current policies in Bolsonaro term, like relatives dying without suplementary oxygen in the pandemic, due to mismanagement.
- UncleOxidant 4y agoI would guess there are a lot of poor people in the cities like Rio de Janiero as well.
- system2 4y agoVoting stats are like real life computer games.
- firekvz 4y agoBefore the whole debate of electronic vote being safe or not, please considere the following: Not all countries work the same, what you perceive as corruption in the US is nowhere near of the reality of corruption in southamerica, a place where corruption is not only a word or a definition but it's literally the force that move things, corruption is pretty much already part of the culture. So please, don't put your own experiences from the US/1st world countries in practice here, trying to explain how things work in 3rd world countries when you are not fully aware of the level of corruption in brazil. If brazilians themselves are talking about the huge window oportunity for corruption is because they know their culture, they know their problems and they know exactly how things work in their very own coutry.
- lhorie 4y agoA few points of interest for those who aren't familiar w/ brazilian politics: - as the link shows, brazilian political parties are numerous, so general elections typically have multiple candidates. There's no electoral college. - voting is mandatory in Brazil. In the 2018 presidential elections, there were ~117M voters. By comparison, the last US presidential election saw turnout of 158M voters. - Brazil has used electronic voting since 1996. General public sentiment towards it has historically always been positive. No instance of fraud has ever been surfaced and the system produces results extremely quickly (as in, within the same day). - Recently the president has been questioning its security, but for some context on his political platform, he also held a similar stance to Trump on the topic of Covid and has been criticized over his position saying deforestation is good for economy. He's still the favorite candidate. The second most popular candidate (Lula) has a long history of controversy (one of the most high profile being him being implicated in investigations related to the impeachment of the previous president Dilma). As you can imagine, many brazilians are cynical about the country's political system. Take that as you will.
- nine_zeros 4y agoThe only people so worried about voting machines and voting fraud are frauds themselves who wouldn't win without disenfranchising a large swath of voters.
- atahanacar 4y agoThis makes no sense. Voting fraud is a real worry, especially when the competition is known to have no ethics and ignore any rule they can. Just because nobody is doing it now doesn't mean you should not be worrying about it.
- roamerz 4y agoAgreed. Show up at the polls in person with government issued ID that has your picture and indicates if you are a Citizen and your address. That ID is then matched to an online database. No more of this mail in vote. Not one Citizen should have to worry about the accuracy of the vote.
- abdullahkhalids 4y agoOff-Topic. I initially opened the website in Firefox. But did not grant it location permissions. So nothing showed up. Then I opened it in Chrome and gave it my location permissions. I started seeing stuff on Chrome, but also in Firefox. So the website has stored my ip+location information.
- mahmoudhossam 4y agoI denied the location request and it worked anyway on Chrome.
- NavinF 4y agoMore likely the site is just unreliable and happened to work on the second try in Firefox. It is completely broken on iOS after denying location permissions.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 4y agoFor me the site blocks until I deny location, then loads (Firefox).
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- euparkeria 4y agoIam so anxious, we have to take this monster away.
- UncleOxidant 4y agoGiven that he's actively encouraged more destruction of the Amazon rainforest it's in the best interests of everyone on earth that Bolsonaro go away.
- 988747 4y ago
- mercy_dude 4y agoWho is the monster and why?
- bskan 4y ago[flagged]
- throwaway102233 4y agoBolsonaro, because Leonardo di Caprio said so /s.
- cassianoleal 4y agoBolsonaro, also known as the Trump of the Tropics, is the incumbent far-right candidate for the Brazilian elections. He's widely known for his mismanagement of the COVID pandemic, misoginy, racism, anti-LGBTQ stances and support for fires in the Amazon. Now that the voting is nearly fully computed, he received roughly 43% of the valid votes (over 50 million). Lula finished in first place with roughly 48% (over 56 million). They are going to run for the second round on the 30th of October.
- frozenlettuce 4y agoThis website has voting with a map as well https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes2022/apuracao/ https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes2022/apuracao/
- ece 4y agohttps://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes2022/apuracao/ https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes2022/apuracao/
- frozenlettuce 4y agofixed! gotta love posting on mobile
- impeplague 4y agoSide note: YouTube has a policy about not questioning the results of previous elections. In Brazil, this also includes questions about the security of electronic voting machines.
- sonthonax 4y ago> YouTube has a policy about not questioning the results of previous elections. Such an absurd and institutionally biased policy, the USA has on many occasions in the last decade vigorously endorsed the outcomes of clearly rigged elections as a matter of policy. Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind. Will big tech remove valid accusations of ballot stuffing because it aligns with US policy?
- pclmulqdq 4y agoDon't worry. If the US political party that YouTube employees favor loses the next election, this rule will be gone.
- frozenlettuce 4y agoyes, they even flagged the Tom Scott video about eletronic voting with the following warning: "The Brazilian electronic voting system allows the exercise of citizenship with greater security. The ballot box was developed to compute votes safely and confidentially, meeting the demand and specific characteristics of Brazil." So eletronic voting is good or bad depending on what the candidates are.
- cesarb 4y agoIn case you're curious about the voting machines which were used in this election, here's a voting machine teardown (2018): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wrMLzqgKEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wrMLzqgKEI (That's for an older model which is still in use, there's also a newer 2020 model.)
- randiantech 4y agoIndependent of the results, I find it truly amazing how fast results are available for the public. Literally every refresh shows hundreds of thousands of new votes already verified and counted.
- RivieraKid 4y agoIs there a web site showing implied probability of who would become the next president based on betting odds?
- cassianoleal 4y agoWho's betting on this? I believe in Brazil it would be illegal.
- sofixa 4y agoProbably UK people are, there's a running bet on pretty much anything there.
- frozenlettuce 4y agoOn Betfair Lula had 1.5 and Bolsonaro 2.5 returns (not a user, but that was on the news because gambling is illegal here)
- RivieraKid 4y agoGoogled Lula's opinion about Russia's war against Ukraine. Surprisingly, he seems only slightly less pro-Russian than Bolsonaro.
- flykespice 4y agoBecause Brazil belongs to BRICS (Brazil Russia India China South Africa), Lula previous government was already amicable with the economic block. He wouln't shoot his own foot to openly condenmn Russia and potentially lose a big economic partner
- rogerthis 4y agoNo one sees a vote. It's just bleebleeblee and it's magically computed. PS: Weirdly.
- thrownawaysz 4y agoIs this site legal? I opened it once through Chrome where uBlock Origin runs, and now I just got a mail from a .br address into my inbox (not even the spam folder) https://files.catbox.moe/ijuogv.png https://files.catbox.moe/ijuogv.png
- haolez 4y agoThe last poll came out just yesterday[0]. It pointed out to Lula being way ahead of Bolsonaro (50% vs 36% for Lula), but so far it seems that Bolsonaro has a chance of finishing ahead of Lula (46% vs 44% for Bolsonaro so far). It's the same as in the 2018 elections. I'm neutral in this election, but on this specific topic of election polls, I agree with the conspiracy theorists that something is really off about them. [0] https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2022/10/01/datafolha-votos-validos-lula-50percent-bolsonaro-36percent.ghtml https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/pesquisa-eleitor...
- gaius_baltar 4y agoBeware these percents are only of valid votes (excluding spoiled and blanks), while the numbers from the site are relative to all votes. (this information is a given for Brazilians, but people who don't speak Portuguese may miss the context)
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- hcarvalhoalves 4y agoThere are polls that gave 50% and other polls that gave 40%, and error margins are often 3-5%. The polls are all around the target.
- flykespice 4y ago> conspiracy theorists Heh, when was the last time they had credibility
- mrlonglong 4y agoDid anyone notice the English translation of Lula's name is Squid? Honestly?! I do hope he wins, for the planet's sake.
- gaius_baltar 4y ago> Did anyone notice the English translation of Lula's name is Squid? Honestly?! Fun fact: this name was originally a nickname only. Several election cycles after he became known as "Lula" there was a new law requiring candidates to appear on the ballots by their legal name. So he added the nickname to his real name. And a few elections later the law was repealed, but the name remain. I still miss this law ... too many candidates showing up with crazy made up stuff in their ballot names.