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Tesla AI Day 2022
- retreatguru 4y agoI like how Elon is optimizing for hiring the best talent over keeping technology secret.
- gabrielsroka 4y agoFrom Tesla's channel: https://youtu.be/ODSJsviD_SU https://youtu.be/ODSJsviD_SU
- dmartinez 4y agoThanks for the updated link. I'm not able to update the post anymore, but maybe one of the mods can.
- Mobius01 4y agoThe Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.
- memish 4y agoHow many Boston Dynamics robots have been made and what's the price? And how long ago did they start? Tesla is going for volume and just started.
- martindbp 4y agoYes, a bit underwhelming, but it's a recruitment event and you've got to start somewhere. Question is how fast and if they can catch up with BD in terms of control.
- whinvik 4y agoIt seems strange that this comment was so aggressively down voted. Anything related to Elon gets the same treatment by HN that I feel that Elon invites a visceral rather than an objective reaction.
- justapassenger 4y agoBecause Elon is snakes oil salesman, who thinks he’s smartest and most important human in the history. He also happens to have some very successful products, that his fan base uses to silence any criticism.
- martindbp 4y agoIf snake-oil salesmanship is all it takes to land rockets vertically and single-handily kickstart the transition to EVs I'm all for it. We need more snake-oil salesmen leading corporate America!
- nixarn 4y agoThere can't be any objective discussions about Elon any more =) John Carmack finds Elon to be smart and really knowledgeable (listen to the latest podcast from Lex Fridman). And you would think HN trusts the words from Carmack? But most think Carmack, who knows Elon personally is wrong, and their opinion based on some random internet articles, is right.
- addicted 4y agoElon is super smart. He’s also a snake oil salesman. These are not contradictory statements. Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. He could have chosen other options. It looked like that was the direction he was going in. By trying to help people. But it’s clear at some point he realized he can make far more money claiming to do something than by actually doing something and decided to focus on that.
- martindbp 4y ago> Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. You make it sound like he's selling ads online or something, not building rockets and electric cars, self-driving software and now robots? Like, if you wanted to make as much money as possible and "fool" people as you say, doing a rocket company and a new car company at the same time, pouring all the $100m you earned from selling your previous company, being months from bankruptcy in both ventures seem like a very roundabout and stressful way of becoming a billionaire. I don't understand where you people get your world view from, are you exclusively reading click-bait news headlines and coming to the conclusion that Elon=Bad? How about reading some actual accounts of the early days at SpaceX for example? I can recommend "Liftoff", it's very balanced, focuses mostly on the employees of SpaceX and doesn't try to paint Elon as some kind of heroic figure, but gives credit where it's due. He comes off as a highly technical, maniacal, single-minded founder, inspiring but working his staff to the bones, and sure, also has some darker sides to his personality. It's the kind of personality that's required to pull these things off.
- justapassenger 4y agoI assume they’ll catchup as fast as they catch up with their FSD to Waymo. Which is driving customers for years, while Tesla’s FSD cannot go without intervention for more than few miles, at best, in any more complex environment. And yes, I know Waymo uses HD maps and limited geo area. So does Tesla, and they’re explicitly mapping and testing areas driven by popular influencers. And it’s assuming that there’s actually a market for humanoid robots. Other than futurology folks getting excited about that form factor, there’s no real market for it, and research shows that humanoids robots are almost never a most optimal answer.
- martindbp 4y agoIf you mean catch up as in FSD is making billions while Waymo is losing billions, yes the comparison is apt. Boston Dynamics tech is very impressive but they don't seem very good at commercializing it. Tesla bot may be janky now, but I could imagine it could do some useful tasks in their factories in 5-8 years or so. We'll see, I think the development will take even longer than self-driving, but at least it will be fun to follow the progress if they're as open as with FSD
- m00x 4y agoTesla FSD isn't making billions. What are you on?
- martindbp 4y agoIt is. Let's check by two measures: 1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access. 2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amounts to $1.47 billion. Numbers are rough estimates, 50% of revenue is held in reserve until FSD is out of beta, and many haven't received the beta yet, still by any measure they are making and will make billions. What you personally think of the product, or if you think Elon is a "snake oil salesman" is not really relevant. To strong arm any counter argument, it's possible that all these buyers will realize it actually sucks/doesn't work, sue the company and the whole thing falls apart, but I don't see any indication of it. There are plenty of unhappy and happy customers with FSD, but they've clearly found something that people are willing to pay a lot for and many are happy with it. Clearly it needs to improve much further in order to sell this to the wider public beyond people who think it's fun to babysit an AI.
- mhoad 4y agoI mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.
- foobiekr 4y agoI mean.. checking out twitter, there are just hundreds of people, at least, who were just blown away by this janky nonsense and the "fact" that tesla will "ship millions" of these this year "for $20k." There's some kind of mass delusion going on.
- mandeepj 4y ago> tesla will "ship millions" of these this year Just like million robo taxis in 2020 :-)
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- ilaksh 4y agoI think he said like 3-5 years.
- esskay 4y agoIn reality its going to be 10+ years and it'll be more than 20k. Thats assuming they actually release it, they seem to be collecting a pretty large list of vaporware right now. Cybertruck and Semi for example which seem to be stuck in development hell. They seem to have a real issue actually shipping. Partly because Elon is incapable of understanding realistic timeframes.
- Seanambers 4y agoUnrealistic timeframes also has the benefit of getting the most out of people. But Elon is getting quite a bit of flak for the expectations it sets. It sure will be interesting to see where FSD & Teslabot is in a couple of years. The pace of innovation is extremely high at Tesla and should make you wonder what Boston Dynamics, Waymo and others have been up to for all these years.
- m00x 4y agoIt was underwhelming, but it's to be expected for 1 year of work. This is also an electric motor robot vs pneumatic actuators from BD.
- benj111 4y agoWhy are electric motors better? Excavators etc use hydrolics, presumably for a reason. I suppose if you want dexterity? But then you'd lose load carrying?
- cosgrove 4y agoDid you see the part where the single Tesla actuator was lifting the piano up and down?
- benj111 4y agoYes but if you're statically holding it that's going to burn out motors etc? And just because it can, doesn't mean it's better. But anyway it was just a general question. It doesn't seem self evident to me that electric motors are 'better' so I was just wanting someone to chime in and explain.
- foobiekr 4y agoChoosing the wrong technology and failing to make it work is not an accomplishment.
- nikau 4y agohold my gigapress
- panick21_ 4y agoAre you an expert in robotics? Why is electronic actuators worse then hydrolics? In most other places we are switching away from hydroponics because electronics are getting so advanced. Electronic actuators is defiantly cheaper and simpler so for a consumer product its seems to be the right choice.
- ilaksh 4y agoIn a way. The motion was not spectacular like Boston Dynamics. But any walking robot especially at that height and size is a significant engineering achievement. And they have been working on it for months rather than years. And the system is entirely electric unlike Boston Dynamics. The last demo was a person in a suit. Your expectations were unrealistic if you are not impressed.
- tonant 4y agoSimilar robots are built every year in colleges around the globe by jr robotics teams. Walking robots have been around for 25 plus years. There was zero to be impressed about. Walking robots are to robotics as hello world is to programming.
- sixQuarks 4y agoCan you show us some examples?
- Andys 4y agoIt was not simply programmed to walk, it was also using computer vision to decide where to walk too
- cma 4y agoIt looked like a very crude depth occupancy model.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 4y ago>very crude depth occupancy model Same as Tesla's FSD and 100% vision based. Is it crude too? I thought it was state of the art…
- ztratar 4y ago"Walking robots are to robotics as hello world is to programming." You say this confidently, but it is nowhere close to true.
- addicted 4y agoBefore we even mention Boston Dynamics, can we talk about how it compares to the Honda Asimo? Because it doesn’t.
- Telemoto 4y agoBD took ages to be were they are right now. I actually think Tesla showed more than I expected. At least we now start the rat race for robots.
- moralestapia 4y agoThat rat race started like 30 (40?) years ago in Japan.
- Telemoto 4y agoProbably true but I do mean the real progress part. Up and running android, big money, fast development.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- cosgrove 4y agoHere's a good thread about Optimus vs. Atlas: https://twitter.com/EzerRatchaga/status/1576140275847610369 https://twitter.com/EzerRatchaga/status/1576140275847610369
- chinabot 4y agoAs long as they dont give it a gun or a dick, Im OK with it
- abudabi123 4y agoPutting together the gang that manhandled the Optimus bot on stage and the video of the grand piano being lifted up and down you can see the business usecase for the removalist industry which charges by the step to relocate such a piano from A to B. Decades ago the price per step was $50, not the U.S. dollar.
- Animatronio 4y agoAt this point the best thing to do is to have the Tesla Robot drive a model 3 around town, picking up passengers a la Total Recall taxi driver. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yy2i1U5pS4E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yy2i1U5pS4E
- jerpint 4y agoI think this was the original vision behind teslabot. FSD is too hard, lets focus on AGI instead
- theGnuMe 4y agoIf this thing can clean the kitchen, load/unload the dishes, and do laundry it will be huge. That seems realistic based on the demo. I imagine it will need an impressive amount of safety features.
- ncr100 4y agoA useful robot with initial purpose that takes job away, now, primarily from black and brown people. To be clear this is a tech product that increases profitability for a company. Are ethics discussed in the presentation? Social equity? Watching now ... it's 3hrs .. looking for ethics consideration. .. ok he simplifies what an Economy is, to the theoretical. Can an economy be one which frees marginalized people from poverty? I'm skeptical and hope Tesla has an Economist, on stage, shortly. Musk is claiming good intention, explicitly. Q: So, who does this? Who is planning future economies where marginalized groups are even further marginalized? Edit: down voting is perplexing, it's a reasonable topic for discussion given the significance of this tech neutralizing Labor. Edit 2: we should have qualms about technology that disrupts sensitive populations. I have no qualms about introduction of things like Docker which disrupted the people who wrote lots of crazy scripts to help deployment of crazy configurations to process data on collections of servers. The key is the marginalized community, who is not in a position to be able to pivot because they are marginalized.
- tim333 4y agoIt's a bit of a separate issue. When Ford first mass produced cars if probably reduced jobs in buggy whip manufacturing and similar fields but that's more a thing for the government to maybe worry about rather than car makers.
- ncr100 4y agoGovernment is ineffective and is responsive to the change after the facts up to the limits of its constituents. The constituents are lobbyists and poorly organized under-unionized civilians. So, I don't expect the government to meaningfully produce any accommodation ahead of time, at least in the United States. Therefore it's up to us as technologists who effectively represents the brains of Tesla, to do that ethical thinking.
- naveen99 4y agoElon mentions near the beginning that optimus being developed inside tesla, a public company [as opposed to spacex which is a private company], as part of the governance model. But this is a recruiting / technical event, so you won't find more ethics considerations in the rest of the video probably.
- rkwasny 4y agoI think the problem is not in the robot hardware but in the software, same as with self driving cars. What would help the development would be a "standard" hardware platform one can just buy and add own code.
- aniken 4y agoI am curious, if they indeed used first principle thinking in order to design a robot that has to be able to replace human labor / jobs, why the robot needs to have 28 actuators and look and function exactly like a humanoid? It seems like copying exact human form, mobility, and movement would almost be arbitrary, and not really necessary. Anyone else have an informed idea as to why that wanted to so precisely copy the human form and movement? Most robotics as far as I understand are designed to be specific to a set of tasks, and the design is optimized around that, thus no other industrial robots look exactly like humans, as far as I am aware. Are they being too ambitious, and romantic, in trying to design a robot that does too much while looking like a human?
- tim333 4y agoI guess it's designed to fit in environments designed for humans like homes and offices. Probably there is a bit of "too ambitious, and romantic" going on too. I see their reasoning as something like that they have a lot of batteries motors processors and AI software lying around from doing cars. It would be kinda fun for a few engineers to try to put those bits in humanoid robot form. Who knows maybe it'll work, maybe it'll help the stock price. There isn't that much cost as they had most of the resources already.