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Sudden increase in number of mid-air diversions to Hawaii
- thoughtpeddler 4y agoAs the article points out: > causes for flight diversions can range from medical (related to crew and passengers), weather (unlikely), unruly activity (we would have heard about that), and mechanical (the most likely). Someone even mentioned solar flares. But none seem to be the case with these diversions, from what is publicly known.
- jaywalk 4y agoWhy would you say none of those reasons seem to be the case? We literally don't know, and there's not really any other reason (that's reasonably possible) other than those three.
- thoughtpeddler 4y agoI may have overstated my case there. Absence of evidence != evidence of absence, after all. Curious to see what the HN community makes of this though. Maybe it's a nothingburger.
- plegresl 4y agoTwo of the Southwest flights are known to be mechanical related: https://avherald.com/h?article=4fc19a3b&opt=0 https://avherald.com/h?article=4fc19a3b&opt=0 https://avherald.com/h?article=4fcfe330&opt=0 https://avherald.com/h?article=4fcfe330&opt=0
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- ThePowerOfFuet 4y agoAvHerald finally supports HTTPS!
- H8crilA 4y agoMedical diversions (a passenger gets too sick) are by far the most common type. I find this interesting how the planes are so much more reliable than the passengers on board.
- bayindirh 4y agoIt's because of the redundancies. I have heard "Master Caution/Alarm" blaring on (IIRC two of) my flights, mid flight, and nobody said anything. We just continued undisturbed and landed as we should. I'm sure the plane went to technical hangar, tho.
- Gravityloss 4y agoAlso, serious processes dealing with anomalies, anonymous incident reporting, strict maintenance rules, long term active government research...
- selectodude 4y agoAlso that goes off pretty frequently. When the PIC switches off autopilot when coming in for landing, for example.
- bombcar 4y agoYeah, many activities trigger it (the pilot will be expecting it coming out of autopilot, if he hears it at cruise because autopilot disengaged they'll investigate).
- AceyMan 4y agoI suspect you meant "the PF" not the PIC (where PF equals 'pilot flying').
- bayindirh 4y agoIt was squarely mid-flight/cruising, international IIRC. We were nowhere near landing/approach.
- jaywalk 4y ago
- United857 4y agoLiveATC has archives of air traffic control comms in many places, it's possible that these flights are included. If we know the exact time, it might be possible for someone dedicated enough to check and see what the reported reason was.
- bombcar 4y agoIf it's not a mechanical emergency (or even a caution) ATC often won't be informed; only if they need emergency equipment to meet, need priority, or have a security issue. In other words if it's an airline policy diversion ATC may just see a plane requesting deviation from flight path.
- kube-system 4y agoIs this even an unusual number? Diversions are not uncommon, no?
- falcolas 4y agoIt's usually hard to say. If you're going to do a diversion while flying across the pacific, you're probably going to go to Hawaii regardless of the reason. And chaos theory says that there will occasionally be groupings of otherwise random events.
- baby 4y agoDoes chaos theory say that or poisson’s distribution?
- falcolas 4y agoI think you're probably right. The dynamics I was thinking of within Chaos Theory relate more to interdependence between instances instead of random coincidence.
- United857 4y agoThis is diversions on flights TO Hawaii, not flights to elsewhere that diverted to Hawaii.
- cassianoleal 4y ago...despite the confusing/misleading title "mid-air diversions to Hawaii".
- thehappypm 4y agoTo and from Hawaii
- chitowneats 4y agoIs there some rationale being implied here that I don't understand? 7 flight diversions over 3 weeks doesn't sound like some type of natural disaster or geopolitical conflict to me. Not that I know anything. Genuinely curious.
- throwawaymaths 4y agoWhy not geopolitical? It's entirely possible that the US military is conducting surprise exercises/weapons tests in the northern Pacific that they gently request diversions away from, though I bet it's more likely to be spare parts supply chain crunches that are nudging airlines to stretch their metal thin (literally) Note that four of the five not-definitely-known-to-be-mechanical incidents transmitted either to or from San Diego, where a lot of navy exercises start from (the shown flight track diverts near where the navy reported harassment from a mystery drone swarm). Would probably be neat to see if they lined up in time and see if there are any other flights that transmitted around then to immediately kill the hypothesis.
- immibis 4y agoThey would just tell planes not to fly there.
- codefreeordie 4y ago5 of them occured within one week, which is an uncommonly high rate of occurrence. There is quite possibly no connection other than coincidence -- 2 of the 7 we're mechanical problems, after all -- but there may be some connection. For example, wind conditions could have been very unfavorable, putting the smaller aircraft closer to their range limits, exacerbating any other problems by reducing fuel margin.
- mbg721 4y agoHawaii is also pretty isolated geographically but has good infrastructure. If aircraft over the Pacific have issues, it's reasonable to expect them to go there.
- someweirdperson 4y ago
- kube-system 4y agoSurprise unplanned high-speed mid-air diversions, no less.
- falcolas 4y agoThat's what they're called. It's not clickbait, it's an indication of a change from a scheduled flight plan while in the air.
- kube-system 4y agoNo, they are not called “mid-air diversions”. They are simply called “diversions”.
- AceyMan 4y agoa change in the scheduled stops (intentionally) would be a reroute or flagstop; a diversion is when you aren't planning to stop somewhere else but have to, because reasons. analogies: flagstop : on the way to Walmart you decide to stop at CVS on the way for something you remembered. diversion: on the way to Walmart you start to loose bowel control and pull into the nearest Burger King to use their w/c. HTH
- falcolas 4y agoDiversion is pilot jargon in this case. For example, ATC (air traffic control) might tell a pilot to divert to Chicago O'Hare if they can't land in Minneapolis.
- awb 4y agoWhat's the expected incident rate? And is this far outside the probability of random clustering?
- empressplay 4y agoOther articles on the site point out that unexpectedly strong headwinds can cause the aircraft to need to return to refuel, and that some aircraft actually need to dump fuel before they can return to get the additional fuel.
- alphanumeric0 4y agoThis sounds like it might be playing a role. A while back someone posted an article about jet stream changes forcing commercial flights to land. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/gh/news/article/stronger-jet-streams-are-leading-to-longer-flight-times-research-says https://www.theweathernetwork.com/gh/news/article/stronger-j...
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago> longest stretch of ocean without diversions in the world. TIL. From the linked article, you could be 3 hours away from a diversion when you are flying to Hawaii. Thus, there is probably a lower threshold to divert, than say if you were flying trans-continental over the US where there are a lot of diversion options all along the route.
- rr888 4y ago> longest stretch of ocean without diversions in the world. I'm pretty sure this is wrong. LAX - Papetee is 8 hours and the only island that could break it up is probably Hawaii. Not to mention Auckland->Santiago or Perth -> Jakarta.
- iancmceachern 4y agoSfo to papette is even longer, seems like no islands to break it up
- radicaldreamer 4y agoThis direct flight is probably the longest as you're pretty much over the Pacific from minutes after takeoff to minutes prior to landing. Hawaii is close to equidistant from either end (3800 to 4400 km).
- Kon-Peki 4y agoIf you can make it 2/3 of the way, Kiribati and Atuona Airport on Hiva Oa [1] look viable. If you can’t do that, I guess Kona/Hilo or Cabo are your “cross your fingers and pray” airports [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atuona_Airport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atuona_Airport
- coredog64 4y agoRarotonga is ~1000km more distant from LA with a similar great circle route. By eyeball, there’s only a short segment where Hawaii is closer than LAX or PPT/RAR. Kiribati might be an option but I don’t know if they have a runway sized for a 767.
- daniel-cussen 4y agoThere's an Auckland->Santiago? It doesn't overfly Antartica? I'm missing out. I knew there's a Santiago->South Pole. That I did know.
- kylehotchkiss 4y agoThere’s an airport at the South Pole? I thought you landed at an ice airfield near a coastal base and overlanded directly to the pole
- nelsondev 4y agoLast year in June, my Hawaiian airlines flight leaving Honolulu turned back after 30 minutes into the flight. No explanation was given, but they put us on a different plane about 3 hours later. But the experience was terrifying to be honest, when the pilot says we are turning around, and there are only miles of ocean in all directions.
- immibis 4y agoPeople are typically scared of the plane falling out of the sky, right? If it helps at all, planes can still glide really really far with no engines. Not that that would happen. another thing that sometimes reassures people is (ironically) watching those airplane disaster documentaries, e.g. on YouTube - you can see that planes are actually really robust, and lots of stuff has to go wrong at the same time before it's a real emergency, and how rare some of that stuff is. Mentour Pilot is an actual pilot who does accident documentaries sometimes.
- orlp 4y agoIf you're in the middle of the ocean no amount of gliding is going to get you off the ocean.
- gramie 4y agoAir Transat Flight 236 would beg to differ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236
- withinboredom 4y agoWell. Actually. They fly routes that keeps the within a single-engine distance to an airport as much as possible. (ETOPs) Gliding should even at least get you fairly close to land, if not to land.
- addandsubtract 4y agoI used to agree, until I found out about Alaska Airlines Flight 261. I'm not sure what fail-safes are built into current Boeing and Airbus planes, but having the horizontal stabilizers malfunction is my new worst case scenario when flying now.
- failrate 4y agoHotter temperatures make it harder for heavier than air flight. Possible factor?
- ceejayoz 4y agoNo; that’s accounted for in flight planning, and ceases to be an issue at altitude.
- AlbertCory 4y ago> As you know, causes for flight diversions can range from medical (related to crew and passengers), weather (unlikely), unruly activity (we would have heard about that) Honest question, not expressing an opinion: for "unruly activity" how would you have heard? I was on a SFO-Toronto flight, and it diverted to Denver because a passenger got unruly & they had him taken off & arrested. Would this have appeared anywhere online?
- throwoutway 4y agoI’ve seen news reports of this many times. I don’t think there’s anything to force the reporting, so maybe it’s missed sometimes?
- bobthepanda 4y agoIn today's society there's a pretty good chance of someone deciding it'll look good on TikTok or Reddit and start filming.
- jrockway 4y agoI think if you follow the ATC repost YouTubers, you have a pretty good chance of hearing about it. People are monitoring ATC 24/7 looking for something interesting to post. https://avherald.com/ https://avherald.com/ is also pretty thorough in terms of breadth.
- AlbertCory 4y agolike this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StS__tbuXnI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StS__tbuXnI
- s1artibartfast 4y agoI was flying Aero Mexico Cabo to LA in the early 2000s and the plane took steep bank to the right and then to the left before turning around 30 minutes into the flight. They kept the passengers onboard after landing while we watched the plane being fueled up before it took off again. Apparently, someone forgot to fuel up the plane before takeoff AND the pilots missed it on their checklist. Last time I flew Aero Mexico.
- rendall 4y agoHow long were you waiting on the tarmac between landing and the second takeoff?
- s1artibartfast 4y agoIt's close to two decades ago so I don't exactly remember but I want to say less than an hour, maybe 30 minutes back at the gate with the fuel truck.
- Temporary_31337 4y agoIf it helps, in Europe (and with flights from Europe say to Toronto) the main cause for diversions are unruly passengers and technical issues. Both are on a slight rise post covid
- bombcar 4y agoThe airport was filled with "Be a little bitch, get a $1m fine" advertisements last time I flew. Was surprised, must be a bit of an issue.