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> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or e

> but there's almost no way China and Russia would win such a war For any sensible definitions of 'win', there's also no way the US can win against China, or even Russia. Both China and Russia are impossible to successfully invade and they both have nuclear weapons (same applies to the US). These 3 countries do not want to go to war against each others and they won't. As the WOPR once wisely concluded, the only winning move is not to play. So every time the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine or Taiwan we pretty much know that this is rhetorics and that they won't actually intervene directly. Edit: I'm bowing in shame and have corrected WOPR (not Whopper). Thanks @jgrahamc.

simmerup 4y ago
The problem with war is that you lose control of the situation extremely fast. Whether the countries want to go to war doesn’t matter when a bluff that isn’t a bluff is called.
- squarefoot 4y ago
  Being sure that nobody else would intervene directly in Ukraine is why the Russians could do on a nationwide scale what nobody thought they would do: bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of, at least when done on purpose and on a such large scale. What i find disgusting is that we're slowly adapting to it, and the Russians know that. However, it is possible that if China invades Taiwan, that event could trigger also an intervention against Russia, at least if one takes for granted that in a direct US vs China conflict, they would quickly escalate to nuclear and Russia would be sucked in as well.
  - actionfromafar 4y ago
    The firebombing of Dresden was done on purpose.
  - brabel 4y ago
    > bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of... I have read that this exact strategy was used successfully and quite recently by Russia in most of its previous conflicts, most notably the complete destruction of Grozny in the 1990's[1], not to mention the bombings in WWII with were completely indiscriminate from both sides, so I think you're just uninformed, with all due respect. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%9...
    - squarefoot 4y ago
      I knew about the bombings of Dresden (Berlin, Hamburg etc.) in WWII and Grozny; what I meant was the extension of the bombings in Ukraine: the Russians bombed pretty much every city in the center, south and west regions, including lots of villages of no or little military importance.
api 4y ago
So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.
- brabel 4y ago
  My half Ukrainian wife says that the US is willing to fight the war in Ukraine until the last Ukrainian.
  - actionfromafar 4y ago
    And Russia is willing to fight it to the last Dagestani, Ossetian etc.
  - Isinlor 4y ago
    The fact that USA is doing anything for Ukraine is astounding all in itself. Russia is not even a remote threat to USA, besides nuclear weapons. Russia is a threat to Europe - Ukraine, Georgia, Baltics, Poland, Finland, Kazahstan. And still Germany and France would be happy to give up Ukraine whole to Russia if not for USA. Germany was happily making itself dependent on Russia and paying Russia to modernize their army. Germany was even bypassing their own sanctions after 2014 to deliver weapons components to Russia that are now being found in wrecks in Ukraine. All while Germany is deeply relaying on USA for defense from Russia. It's crazy that USA was so chill about it until Trump. As a Pole born and raised 40km from Kaliningrad oblast it's really weird that I trust USA more than I do Germany, France, Italy etc.
    - brabel 4y ago
      Yeah, completely agree. European countries are almost helpless without USA's weapons to defend them... they just thought they were too civilized to go to war again anytime soon, I guess, letting the USA bear the burden of actually investing in the military while they just did the bare minimum. But the situation between Russia and Germany is more complicated than that... Germany did not see Russia as the enemy as far as I see it even after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The large dependencies on Russian gas/oil/coal/etc that Germany incurred make sense when you consider that... they had a weird kind of debt to Russia for helping remove the Nazis from power and were working under the assumption that the only way to keep a big neighbour from trying to destroy you is to keep friendly relations with them, which I find is the right approach even when sometimes that doesn't work too well. The alternative of always seeing the big neighbour as a threat and with utmost suspicion (I guess that's Poland the and the Baltic states approach, as well as most of Ukraine after the Orange Revolution) is bound to lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy as that's obviously going to lead to hostilities with enough time (just try that with your suburban neighbours).
jgrahamc 4y ago
I can’t leave “Whopper” uncorrected. It’s WOPR and stands for War Operation Plan Response.
rocgf 4y ago
When did the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine? There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. As for Taiwan, it's an unknown and if you claim otherwise, you're doing it based on nothing. Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan. Not saying the US actually wants to, maybe it's just a deterrent. However, if China does attack and the US backs off, that would mean the end of American supremacy regardless.
- deepdriver 4y ago
  >There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. NPR hosted the former commander of NATO who called for the US to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, to include shooting down Russian jets. Numerous Senators and Congressmen backed one as well. https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-commander-says-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-must-be-on-the-table https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-comman...
  - porbelm 4y ago
    Yeah but the U.S. didn't do that, did they?
    - deepdriver 4y ago
      The assertion was "zero talk" of such intervention, my point is that there quite a lot of public and private discussion on the matter. Yes, Biden ultimately shot down the idea (thankfully). Unsettling to me that it picked up enough steam where he felt he had to make a statement on it.
- mytailorisrich 4y ago
  > Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan And he was rebutted by the White House when it looked like he meant that the US would intervene militarily No-one doubts that the US would help, e.g. by supplying intelligence, weapons, etc. as they do now. But they would not send troops and they would not engage (nice word to mean 'attack') the Chinese.

simmerup 4y ago

The problem with war is that you lose control of the situation extremely fast. Whether the countries want to go to war doesn’t matter when a bluff that isn’t a bluff is called.

squarefoot 4y ago
Being sure that nobody else would intervene directly in Ukraine is why the Russians could do on a nationwide scale what nobody thought they would do: bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of, at least when done on purpose and on a such large scale. What i find disgusting is that we're slowly adapting to it, and the Russians know that. However, it is possible that if China invades Taiwan, that event could trigger also an intervention against Russia, at least if one takes for granted that in a direct US vs China conflict, they would quickly escalate to nuclear and Russia would be sucked in as well.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  The firebombing of Dresden was done on purpose.
- brabel 4y ago
  > bombing every building civilian homes, malls, schools and hospitals is unheard of... I have read that this exact strategy was used successfully and quite recently by Russia in most of its previous conflicts, most notably the complete destruction of Grozny in the 1990's[1], not to mention the bombings in WWII with were completely indiscriminate from both sides, so I think you're just uninformed, with all due respect. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%9...
  - squarefoot 4y ago
    I knew about the bombings of Dresden (Berlin, Hamburg etc.) in WWII and Grozny; what I meant was the extension of the bombings in Ukraine: the Russians bombed pretty much every city in the center, south and west regions, including lots of villages of no or little military importance.

api 4y ago

So instead we see endless proxy wars where these three powers use other countries as battlegrounds killing other people.

brabel 4y ago
My half Ukrainian wife says that the US is willing to fight the war in Ukraine until the last Ukrainian.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  And Russia is willing to fight it to the last Dagestani, Ossetian etc.
- Isinlor 4y ago
  The fact that USA is doing anything for Ukraine is astounding all in itself. Russia is not even a remote threat to USA, besides nuclear weapons. Russia is a threat to Europe - Ukraine, Georgia, Baltics, Poland, Finland, Kazahstan. And still Germany and France would be happy to give up Ukraine whole to Russia if not for USA. Germany was happily making itself dependent on Russia and paying Russia to modernize their army. Germany was even bypassing their own sanctions after 2014 to deliver weapons components to Russia that are now being found in wrecks in Ukraine. All while Germany is deeply relaying on USA for defense from Russia. It's crazy that USA was so chill about it until Trump. As a Pole born and raised 40km from Kaliningrad oblast it's really weird that I trust USA more than I do Germany, France, Italy etc.
  - brabel 4y ago
    Yeah, completely agree. European countries are almost helpless without USA's weapons to defend them... they just thought they were too civilized to go to war again anytime soon, I guess, letting the USA bear the burden of actually investing in the military while they just did the bare minimum. But the situation between Russia and Germany is more complicated than that... Germany did not see Russia as the enemy as far as I see it even after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The large dependencies on Russian gas/oil/coal/etc that Germany incurred make sense when you consider that... they had a weird kind of debt to Russia for helping remove the Nazis from power and were working under the assumption that the only way to keep a big neighbour from trying to destroy you is to keep friendly relations with them, which I find is the right approach even when sometimes that doesn't work too well. The alternative of always seeing the big neighbour as a threat and with utmost suspicion (I guess that's Poland the and the Baltic states approach, as well as most of Ukraine after the Orange Revolution) is bound to lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy as that's obviously going to lead to hostilities with enough time (just try that with your suburban neighbours).

jgrahamc 4y ago

I can’t leave “Whopper” uncorrected. It’s WOPR and stands for War Operation Plan Response.

rocgf 4y ago

When did the US 'flex their muscles' over Ukraine? There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. As for Taiwan, it's an unknown and if you claim otherwise, you're doing it based on nothing. Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan. Not saying the US actually wants to, maybe it's just a deterrent. However, if China does attack and the US backs off, that would mean the end of American supremacy regardless.

deepdriver 4y ago
>There was absolutely zero talk of the US/NATO directly intervening militarily in Ukraine. NPR hosted the former commander of NATO who called for the US to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, to include shooting down Russian jets. Numerous Senators and Congressmen backed one as well. https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-commander-says-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-must-be-on-the-table https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-comman...
- porbelm 4y ago
  Yeah but the U.S. didn't do that, did they?
  - deepdriver 4y ago
    The assertion was "zero talk" of such intervention, my point is that there quite a lot of public and private discussion on the matter. Yes, Biden ultimately shot down the idea (thankfully). Unsettling to me that it picked up enough steam where he felt he had to make a statement on it.
mytailorisrich 4y ago
> Biden has clearly and repeatedly stated that the US would defend Taiwan And he was rebutted by the White House when it looked like he meant that the US would intervene militarily No-one doubts that the US would help, e.g. by supplying intelligence, weapons, etc. as they do now. But they would not send troops and they would not engage (nice word to mean 'attack') the Chinese.