10 ms·

Satellite images of damage done to Saki airfield in Crimea

127 points by _Microft 4y ago

_Microft 4y ago
On Nitter: https://nitter.it/IntelArrow/status/1557449807345733635 https://nitter.it/IntelArrow/status/1557449807345733635 Saky on Google Maps, it's easy to find the area that the satellite images show: https://www.google.com/maps?ll=45.133611,33.577222&q=45.133611,33.577222&hl=en&t=h&z=12 https://www.google.com/maps?ll=45.133611,33.577222&q=45.1336...
- stefan_ 4y ago
  Except Google steadfastly refuses to label any sort of military installation, even the most obvious airstrips.
  - akimball 4y ago
    Not even the famous secret nuclear bunker?
- tgv 4y ago
  If you use Firefox, install the nitter-redirect extension. All twitter links are simply replaced by nitter.
  - coolspot 4y ago
    If you’re on iOS, just accept your fate.
mmastrac 4y ago
The strategy of Russia pointing at a very unlikely fire safety issue and the coyness of Ukraine not taking direct responsibility for it (yet) are interesting from a communication perspective.
- saberdancer 4y ago
  It's a tactic Ukraine used before. They rightly assume that most people will understand what happened so they play coy and mock Russia. It will be interesting to see what Russia says when the "accident" repeats again in another location.
  - prox 4y ago
    I just read that a whole base went up in flames near Moscow.
    - JshWright 4y ago
      There's zero chance that would be a direct attack by AFU. It's _possible_ it was some sort of sabotage operation (if so, it's much more likely to be Russians who oppose the war), but it's also a wooden barracks building... structure fires are a thing that happen for a whole range of reasons.
      - prox 4y ago
        The chatter seems to be it was a conscript base. Either the conscripts didn’t want to go, or what also happens is that bases get understaffed for X amount of people while still getting the money for those “missing” soldiers. Getting rid of evidence then becomes an option.
        vorpalhex 4y ago
        A lot of the Russian conscripts seem to be minorities from more rural areas, and Russian military lifestyle is very subpar and is likely a downgrade for those conscripts from their home. So yeah, the conscripts getting upset and burning down a base is very believable.
  - xdennis 4y ago
    I don't understand the reasoning. If Ukraine isn't openly acknowledging the attack doesn't it mean that it's respecting the orcs' "red line" of not attacking what they consider Russia?
dmix 4y ago
Context: https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wk3nq2/compilation_of_videos_of_russian_military/ https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wk3nq2/compi... Ukraine fired multiple (probably) Neptune missiles into a Crimea airfield https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune One of the more optomistic estimates show losses at: 12 Su-27 and Su-30 fighters, 5 Su-24 bombers and 6 Mi-8 helicopters. Other people saying only 6x Su-24 and 3x Su-30 https://gagadget.com/en/war/156317-12-su-27-and-su-30-fighters-5-su-24-bombers-and-6-mi-8-helicopters-russian-aviation-losses-at-the-airfield-in-crimea-/ https://gagadget.com/en/war/156317-12-su-27-and-su-30-fighte...
- mcc1ane 4y ago
  Based on?
  - dmix 4y ago
    You mean the missile part or the loss estimates? Ukraine claimed it was a 'locally made weapon' and they don't have anything else with this much power based on the explosions. At least that's what the experts I follow on Twitter are claiming. Lots of people claiming ATACMS which I doubt.
    - anovikov 4y ago
      It can be also Grim ballistic missile, actually. More or less equivalent of Iskander.
    - pageandrew 4y ago
      Was ATACMS sold to Ukraine?
      - spywaregorilla 4y ago
        Official line is No
- iSnow 4y ago
onychomys 4y ago
Here's some much larger shots, along with explanations of what they show and what each destroyed Russian plane is: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction...
- drcongo 4y ago
  This is a much better link.
  - rob74 4y ago
    Well yeah, pretty much everything is much better than one tweet (even if it contains images)...
nbzso 4y ago
- peter422 4y ago
  So I should believe the propaganda of the country that is invading another country under an obviously false pretense?
  - nbzso 4y ago
    No. You should realize that saving people lives is more important than being "right" or "wrong". And the reality of war is ugly. Ukrainian military was one if not the most trained professional army in Europe. Second to none. With enough military supplies, fortified trenches and predefined logistical support, trained on NATO standards. The Russians, which we believed to be inferior, actually adapted to the task and without mobilization are winning. Yes, Ukrainians are capable of inflicting pain, but this will not change the outcome.
    - onychomys 4y ago
      > but this will not change the outcome. I mean, if the history of the USA between the years of 2001 and 2021 are any indication, small countries inflicting pain on much larger and better equipped armies is absolutely enough to change an outcome.
    - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
      > You should realize that saving people lives is more important than being "right" or "wrong". Let's not do classic victim blaming here: it's Putin who should realize that.
    - Ralfp 4y ago
      Gee, I guess Chamberlain was wrong for not partitioning Czechoslovakia and yielding Sudetenland to the Reich. And Poland not giving northen part of its territory for Reich to connect with Eastern Prussia. This man right here found a way to avoid WW II from happening!
dhx 4y ago
Total Russian losses of multirole/fighter/attack aircraft are estimated at only 42[1] compared to a possible in-service count of approximately 1228[2], for a 3% loss so far. Lack of industrial capacity to produce aircraft parts and munitions is a more likely reason for keeping Russian aircraft on the ground and slowing the pace of the war. It is estimated that Russia in the first three months used up an equivalent of 4 years worth of US production of all types of missiles.[3] And the US has so far sent Ukraine approximately 4 years worth of production of Javelin missiles.[3] The US aren't expecting to be able to double the annual 2100/yr production rate[3] until a few more years time so the limiting factor for Ukraine will soon be industrial capacity of Western countries to manufacture new munitions and equipment. Impacting all parties to the war is global inflation that is significantly reducing defense industrial capacity output in real terms. For the US, the defense sector contracted 6% in real terms in 2021.[4] With Russia's official inflation rate recently over 17% and many sanctions in place, defense sector output for Russia is a far bleaker situation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_losses_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_militar... [3] https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... [4] https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-defence-spending-the-impact-of-inflation https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-d...
- optimalsolver 4y ago
  >a possible in-service count of approximately 1228 I doubt most of those are operational. Likely already stripped for parts.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    It's also likely that many planes on Saki weren't operational.
    - optimalsolver 4y ago
spywaregorilla 4y ago
The reason this is significant, besides being an enormous loss of difficult to replace aircraft, is that it was so far from the front lines. Russia has been fumbling in the last month to adjust to western HIMAR weapons that have been precisely targeting ammo depots, hqs, and other high value targets far behind the front lines. Russian logistics is largely train based. They ship everything by train and unpack it to a nearby warehouse, then rely on trucks for the last mile. The HIMARs have been destroying the warehouses, meaning Russia is now needing to use trucks for much much more than the last mile because they can't unpack everything near the front. This new strike is even longer range than the weapon specs Ukraine was believed to have. And it was 2 very precise explosions. How this was achieved is not clear, but if Ukraine now has frequent precise missile capabilities for 200-300km strikes, that means Russia may need to scramble their logistics all over again. Right now the most important location in the war is Kherson, occupied by Russia. It's the only truly valuable asset that Russia has seized, and recent Ukranian advances have made Russia pull 20-30k troops off of other front lines to reinforce this area. It's a very difficult position for Russia. There's just a couple bridges leading into Kherson from the south (Russia / Crimea side) and Ukraine has been blowing them up. Logistics of supplying those 30k troops is going to be really tough. And now Crimea, the main logistics hub for those troops, is appearing very vulnerable. Ukraine's goal here is to make the defense of Kherson extremely resource intensive, meaning Russia has to either lose the territory or weaken up on other fronts.
- spamizbad 4y ago
  I think it's absolutely nuts Russia isn't just walking away from this fight. They're fighting a war of choice. Their military is very slowly getting ground down to capture territory they are unable to comprehensively defend.
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    Russia is probably suffering from the sunk cost fallacy: this war has been painfully expensive, but they don't have anything to show for that expense. Realistically, if you were to imagine what the negotiating table looks like at this point, Ukraine is aiming for restoration of its pre-2014 borders--that is recovery of Luhansk and Donetsk, not to mention Crimea. Those terms are almost certainly nonstarters to Russia, but Russia hasn't inflicted sufficient damage on Ukraine to cause them to ask for anything less. For its part, Russia seems determined still to ask for annexation of large parts of Ukraine--they are currently attempting to put together a referendum showing that occupied Kherson wants to be part of Russia (and it seems the current offensive is interfering with their planned timetable--embarrassingly, they might not hold Kherson when the "referendum" is currently planned). So the only way that Russia is likely to capitulate is if the military situation is so hopeless that it has to admit defeat in the conflict. The military situation has yet to reach that point, though. Instead, we seem to be set for a years-long grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome.

127 points by _Microft 4y ago

On Nitter: https://nitter.it/IntelArrow/status/1557449807345733635 https://nitter.it/IntelArrow/status/1557449807345733635 Saky on Google Maps, it's easy to find the area that the satellite images show: https://www.google.com/maps?ll=45.133611,33.577222&q=45.133611,33.577222&hl=en&t=h&z=12 https://www.google.com/maps?ll=45.133611,33.577222&q=45.1336...

stefan_ 4y ago
Except Google steadfastly refuses to label any sort of military installation, even the most obvious airstrips.
- akimball 4y ago
  Not even the famous secret nuclear bunker?
tgv 4y ago
If you use Firefox, install the nitter-redirect extension. All twitter links are simply replaced by nitter.
- coolspot 4y ago
  If you’re on iOS, just accept your fate.

mmastrac 4y ago

The strategy of Russia pointing at a very unlikely fire safety issue and the coyness of Ukraine not taking direct responsibility for it (yet) are interesting from a communication perspective.

saberdancer 4y ago
It's a tactic Ukraine used before. They rightly assume that most people will understand what happened so they play coy and mock Russia. It will be interesting to see what Russia says when the "accident" repeats again in another location.
- prox 4y ago
  I just read that a whole base went up in flames near Moscow.
  - JshWright 4y ago
    There's zero chance that would be a direct attack by AFU. It's _possible_ it was some sort of sabotage operation (if so, it's much more likely to be Russians who oppose the war), but it's also a wooden barracks building... structure fires are a thing that happen for a whole range of reasons.
    - prox 4y ago
      The chatter seems to be it was a conscript base. Either the conscripts didn’t want to go, or what also happens is that bases get understaffed for X amount of people while still getting the money for those “missing” soldiers. Getting rid of evidence then becomes an option.
      - vorpalhex 4y ago
        A lot of the Russian conscripts seem to be minorities from more rural areas, and Russian military lifestyle is very subpar and is likely a downgrade for those conscripts from their home. So yeah, the conscripts getting upset and burning down a base is very believable.
- xdennis 4y ago
  I don't understand the reasoning. If Ukraine isn't openly acknowledging the attack doesn't it mean that it's respecting the orcs' "red line" of not attacking what they consider Russia?

dmix 4y ago

Context: https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wk3nq2/compilation_of_videos_of_russian_military/ https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wk3nq2/compi... Ukraine fired multiple (probably) Neptune missiles into a Crimea airfield https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune One of the more optomistic estimates show losses at: 12 Su-27 and Su-30 fighters, 5 Su-24 bombers and 6 Mi-8 helicopters. Other people saying only 6x Su-24 and 3x Su-30 https://gagadget.com/en/war/156317-12-su-27-and-su-30-fighters-5-su-24-bombers-and-6-mi-8-helicopters-russian-aviation-losses-at-the-airfield-in-crimea-/ https://gagadget.com/en/war/156317-12-su-27-and-su-30-fighte...

mcc1ane 4y ago
Based on?
- dmix 4y ago
  You mean the missile part or the loss estimates? Ukraine claimed it was a 'locally made weapon' and they don't have anything else with this much power based on the explosions. At least that's what the experts I follow on Twitter are claiming. Lots of people claiming ATACMS which I doubt.
  - anovikov 4y ago
    It can be also Grim ballistic missile, actually. More or less equivalent of Iskander.
  - pageandrew 4y ago
    Was ATACMS sold to Ukraine?
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      Official line is No
iSnow 4y ago

onychomys 4y ago

Here's some much larger shots, along with explanations of what they show and what each destroyed Russian plane is: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction...

drcongo 4y ago
This is a much better link.
- rob74 4y ago
  Well yeah, pretty much everything is much better than one tweet (even if it contains images)...

nbzso 4y ago

peter422 4y ago
So I should believe the propaganda of the country that is invading another country under an obviously false pretense?
- nbzso 4y ago
  No. You should realize that saving people lives is more important than being "right" or "wrong". And the reality of war is ugly. Ukrainian military was one if not the most trained professional army in Europe. Second to none. With enough military supplies, fortified trenches and predefined logistical support, trained on NATO standards. The Russians, which we believed to be inferior, actually adapted to the task and without mobilization are winning. Yes, Ukrainians are capable of inflicting pain, but this will not change the outcome.
  - onychomys 4y ago
    > but this will not change the outcome. I mean, if the history of the USA between the years of 2001 and 2021 are any indication, small countries inflicting pain on much larger and better equipped armies is absolutely enough to change an outcome.
  - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
    > You should realize that saving people lives is more important than being "right" or "wrong". Let's not do classic victim blaming here: it's Putin who should realize that.
  - Ralfp 4y ago
    Gee, I guess Chamberlain was wrong for not partitioning Czechoslovakia and yielding Sudetenland to the Reich. And Poland not giving northen part of its territory for Reich to connect with Eastern Prussia. This man right here found a way to avoid WW II from happening!

dhx 4y ago

Total Russian losses of multirole/fighter/attack aircraft are estimated at only 42[1] compared to a possible in-service count of approximately 1228[2], for a 3% loss so far. Lack of industrial capacity to produce aircraft parts and munitions is a more likely reason for keeping Russian aircraft on the ground and slowing the pace of the war. It is estimated that Russia in the first three months used up an equivalent of 4 years worth of US production of all types of missiles.[3] And the US has so far sent Ukraine approximately 4 years worth of production of Javelin missiles.[3] The US aren't expecting to be able to double the annual 2100/yr production rate[3] until a few more years time so the limiting factor for Ukraine will soon be industrial capacity of Western countries to manufacture new munitions and equipment. Impacting all parties to the war is global inflation that is significantly reducing defense industrial capacity output in real terms. For the US, the defense sector contracted 6% in real terms in 2021.[4] With Russia's official inflation rate recently over 17% and many sanctions in place, defense sector output for Russia is a far bleaker situation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_losses_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_militar... [3] https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... [4] https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-defence-spending-the-impact-of-inflation https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-d...

optimalsolver 4y ago
>a possible in-service count of approximately 1228 I doubt most of those are operational. Likely already stripped for parts.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  It's also likely that many planes on Saki weren't operational.
  - optimalsolver 4y ago

spywaregorilla 4y ago

The reason this is significant, besides being an enormous loss of difficult to replace aircraft, is that it was so far from the front lines. Russia has been fumbling in the last month to adjust to western HIMAR weapons that have been precisely targeting ammo depots, hqs, and other high value targets far behind the front lines. Russian logistics is largely train based. They ship everything by train and unpack it to a nearby warehouse, then rely on trucks for the last mile. The HIMARs have been destroying the warehouses, meaning Russia is now needing to use trucks for much much more than the last mile because they can't unpack everything near the front. This new strike is even longer range than the weapon specs Ukraine was believed to have. And it was 2 very precise explosions. How this was achieved is not clear, but if Ukraine now has frequent precise missile capabilities for 200-300km strikes, that means Russia may need to scramble their logistics all over again. Right now the most important location in the war is Kherson, occupied by Russia. It's the only truly valuable asset that Russia has seized, and recent Ukranian advances have made Russia pull 20-30k troops off of other front lines to reinforce this area. It's a very difficult position for Russia. There's just a couple bridges leading into Kherson from the south (Russia / Crimea side) and Ukraine has been blowing them up. Logistics of supplying those 30k troops is going to be really tough. And now Crimea, the main logistics hub for those troops, is appearing very vulnerable. Ukraine's goal here is to make the defense of Kherson extremely resource intensive, meaning Russia has to either lose the territory or weaken up on other fronts.

spamizbad 4y ago
I think it's absolutely nuts Russia isn't just walking away from this fight. They're fighting a war of choice. Their military is very slowly getting ground down to capture territory they are unable to comprehensively defend.
- jcranmer 4y ago
  Russia is probably suffering from the sunk cost fallacy: this war has been painfully expensive, but they don't have anything to show for that expense. Realistically, if you were to imagine what the negotiating table looks like at this point, Ukraine is aiming for restoration of its pre-2014 borders--that is recovery of Luhansk and Donetsk, not to mention Crimea. Those terms are almost certainly nonstarters to Russia, but Russia hasn't inflicted sufficient damage on Ukraine to cause them to ask for anything less. For its part, Russia seems determined still to ask for annexation of large parts of Ukraine--they are currently attempting to put together a referendum showing that occupied Kherson wants to be part of Russia (and it seems the current offensive is interfering with their planned timetable--embarrassingly, they might not hold Kherson when the "referendum" is currently planned). So the only way that Russia is likely to capitulate is if the military situation is so hopeless that it has to admit defeat in the conflict. The military situation has yet to reach that point, though. Instead, we seem to be set for a years-long grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome.