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The inflation on food due to high fuel and fertilizer prices won’t really kick in until October -> February during harvest. Next year food will be far higher,
by lettergram 4y ago
The inflation on food due to high fuel and fertilizer prices won’t really kick in until October -> February during harvest.
Next year food will be far higher, largely due to
- people skipping fertilizer a second year in a row
- the feed price increases from year prior will impact next years meat
- much of the cow herds have been reduced due to hay prices skyrocketing (but beef rates staying far lower, due to sell offs)
- if Ukraine doesn’t surrender, we can expect less food production and potential oil disruption to center Europe
- Russia is not likely to renew trade relationships baring a reparations for seizing assets. They produce much of the fertilizer and oil
- 10% reduction in nitrogen targets for EU countries and Canada will further reduce food production
Yeah, a drop here or there isn’t indicative of a major change in inflation. I don’t see how we can get lower general inflation in the next 3+ years. FED has said as much.
In way of an explanation, hay prices have tripled. It’s expected they’ll at least double again tin the next 12 months. That’s one of the feed for cattle. That’s a 6x expected increase to feed cattle (the largest expense). To put it in perspective, that’s likely going to mean $12-20/lb ground beef; $25-$30/lb steak in 18 months.
- HelloMcFly 4y agoI'm not trying to be glib or intentionally controversial, but: is this a "market correction" for beef not really being as sustainable at recent consumption levels? Is it a bad thing if beef becomes significantly more expensive?
- shortstuffsushi 4y agoIf your industry isn't able to sustain a 6x increase on production cost, is that a market correction?
- chaorace 4y agoNot to pull the "facts don't care about feelings" card... but markets don't care about long-term sustainability so long as medium-term growth can be expected. Such a correction for unsustainable markets will eventually come, but not on a timescale relevant to current events. I don't personally think rising beef prices are an issue, though. Nobody is going to starve because they're being priced out of a steak. I will be more concerned if we eventually begin to run short of beef-alternatives, though.
- HelloMcFly 4y agoI was more thinking about how subsidized beef consumption is, at least in America. I was thinking less about sustainability from an environmental standpoint, though I think the environmental cost of beef is one of the things that is hidden by the way we subsidize the industry.
- propogandist 4y agoThey’re pushing all kind of narratives to make cattle seem like they’re terrible for the world, and linking everything to climate change. No one wants to accept the push to start eating bugs. Don’t give into the WEF propaganda https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/18/cows-seaweed-methane-emissions-scientists https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/18/cows-sea...
- manimino 4y agoWho exactly is "they"? The... Big Bug industry?
- propogandist 4y agoInsects are being promoted as a way to hit UN’s sustainable development goals [1] There’s also an industry emerging, with big pushes from organizations like WEF, to normalize eating bugs [2]. Investors are getting in on this trend too [3] 1. https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/12/6/557 https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/12/6/557 2. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/why-we-need-to-give-insects-the-role-they-deserve-in-our-food-systems/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/why-we-need-to-give-i... 3. https://fortune.com/2022/05/24/war-ukraine-big-ag-insect-feed-protix-fao/ https://fortune.com/2022/05/24/war-ukraine-big-ag-insect-fee...
- silksowed 4y agoin what world will people eat bugs instead of beef, do bugs taste anywhere as good as beef? all the push from the supply side doesn't fix the demand problem.
- kombucha13 4y agoHonestly they are really delicious and satiate in a similar way to meat. Try some grasshoppers next chance you get.
- 4y ago
- lettergram 4y agoProduction of beef is at sustainable levels, provided cheap energy. But increase fertilizer 3-10x and fuel 3-5x and you’re going to adjust in prices. And you’re going to get a new sustainable level. Btw when I say “sustainable” I mean market conditions, not environment. The environment can likely handle far more cattle, but it requires input (fuel, fertilizer, etc) for us to produce said cattle. Recall, there used to be millions (probably tens of millions) of bison roaming the Americas. We basically replaced them with cattle. Cattle are constrained to a region and fed food from farms. Environmental wise, I don’t see much issue with cattle (when comparing to other pollutants)
- fleddr 4y agoMy father has worked in the meat industry his entire life and said that over the decades, he was shocked how unnaturally cheap meat has become. I'm in no way anti-meat, but a lot of people have normalized eating a huge amount of meat per day at ultra low cost, and internalized this as some basic right. Natural consumption of meat is to eat meat sporadically, not 3 times per day. I'm not questioning whether one likes meat, I do too. I'm saying you don't need it in these amounts nor should you expect it to be this cheap forever.
- Dylan16807 4y agoWhat's a natural amount? I'm imagining a farm household hundreds of years ago, growing their own crops and having a herd of 4 cows, killing one or two a year for lots and lots of meat. Google says hunter-gatherers got most of their food from meat. And are crops not unnaturally cheap with modern mechanized farms?
- nephanth 4y agoI'd say a good definition for a "natural amount" is the average amount you get in a hunter-gatherer setting. That's what most of our evolution has prepared us for. Not judging on the value of thaat diet though. "Natural" doesn't necessarily mean "good"
- kortilla 4y ago> Natural consumption of meat is to eat meat sporadically, not 3 times per day. This is just an appeal to the way things were 70 years ago in the US. Much further back you had Native Americans absolutely eating tons of bison meat in the western US. Other tribes easily got fish for every meal. Others have been heavily vegetarian. There is no “natural consumption of meat”.
- ww-picard-do 4y ago> There is no “natural consumption of meat”. Yes. As you point out the consumption of meat varies greatly across cultures.
- Balero 4y ago>- if Ukraine doesn’t surrender, we can expect less food production and potential oil disruption to center Europe If Russia doesn't surrender. Don't put the responsibility of global food prices on the people being repressed and killed in their own homes. Do it on the aggressors and war criminals.
- lettergram 4y agoLol I’m not “placing blame” I’m stating what I see as facts. Russia will not surrender. The longer the Ukraine is in the war, the higher likelihood the people of Ukraine starve. We can make an argument that they shouldn’t surrender. That’s a moral position. I’m pointing out if we don’t figure it out within the next few months you’re not going to get the food from the region, as people are fighting over it. I don’t care who’s fault it is. We should recognize the situation so we can try to mitigate the issue.
- valeness 4y agoWhat the OP is saying is you could have phrased your comment like you did in your last paragraph here. Nobody disagrees that until it ends the situation will create further instability; but it can end with Russia giving up or surrendering as well. There is no global objective truth that Russia will not surrender; so by saying "I'm just stating facts" you're actually making a normative claim instead of a descriptive one; which can be viewed as problematic.
- s1artibartfast 4y agoIt is common and reasonable to exclude unlikely if conditions from statements. They are just claiming that Russian concession is much less likely than a Ukrainian one, which I think many would agree with.
- Balero 4y agoHow about: If the war in Ukraine continues, we can expect less food production and potential oil disruption to center Europe. No need to comment on how to get to this outcome, or thoughts about who will make a concession leading to a big conversation away from the main point of what you were trying to say. Keep the if statement about exactly matters, not a secondary effect/cause.
- silicon2401 4y agoif food production is getting more expensive, would that make this a good time to invest in companies that produce chemicals used in fertilizer?
- xedrac 4y ago> if Ukraine doesn’t surrender I think you mean if Russia doesn't surrender. If Ukraine was to surrender, we'd have bigger problems than an increase in beef costs. I don't see any universe where Russia wins this war.
- drchickensalad 4y agoI think you should try broadening your media bubble. There's many, many scenarios.
- kranke155 4y agoYou should read reports by actual experts instead of media. The RUSI - Royal United Services Institute - is a leading UK military institute that had boots on the ground assessing the situation. Here is their assessment. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-r... "At present, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses are leading to an attritional conflict that risks a protracted war, eventually favouring Russia." And here's the companion podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a-turning-point-in-ukraine/id1629454648?i=1000568268889 https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a-turning-point-in-ukr... It will tell you a lot of things, including that Ukraine's losses are far higher than the general public estimates, as Ukraine successfully hid/minimized the awareness of its losses from phase 1 of the war. I also recommend the War on the Rocks podcast with Michael Kofman, whose assessment of the situation is also not too rosy. I am extremely pro ukraine. But that's the reality. At the moment Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing, just very slowly.
- Workaccount2 4y agoI remember day 1 of the war when 4-star generals where on TV saying Ukraine was going to get rolled.
- sanderjd 4y agoIt seems to me that they are right about the "attritional conflict that risks a protracted war" part, but that the ability to accurately forecast the outcome of such a war is extremely limited. If one side were winning easily and quickly, it would be easy to predict the outcome. With a long tug of war conflict, forecasting is much less useful.
- fuoqi 4y ago>Russia is not likely to renew trade relationships baring a reparations for seizing assets Russia is quite ready to sell on the following conditions: - Remove sanctions which forbid (or make it difficult) the Russian export in the first place. - Pay in rubles (i.e. you have to "sterilize" your cache through the Moscow stock exchange) like was done with the gas export to Europe. - Remove sanctions which forbid export to Russia. It has no interest in selling stuff to the West, if it can not buy the stuff it needs in exchange. We already can see that its export-oriented economy sectors suffer from the strong ruble. Russia has answered to the frozen reserves by freezing financial assets owned by foreigners. Interestingly enough, both numbers are quite comparable to each other.
- bigodbiel 4y agoRussian foreign reserve assets are liquid, nationalized means of production for goods outside their respective chain of production isn’t and of dubious value (eg car manufacturing).
- tmikaeld 4y ago> - if Ukraine doesn’t surrender, we can expect less food production I doubt that Russia would prioritize food production if they win the war, considering the huge list of "enemies" they've added to their list. Most likely, they send food production to allies and they'll attack the next neighboring country in a few years by keeping exports (Gas/food) towards "enemies" at a minimum.
- nradov 4y agoWheat and other grains are somewhat fungible on the world commodity market. If Russia sells more grain to select allies then there will be more available to other buyers from different sources. Transportation complicates things a little, but generally that's how it works.
- runnerup 4y agoIn USA ground beef subsidies will increase before it reaches $12/lb for basic 80/20.