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Look into SoRare’s volume. They raised over $500m. Volume is now lower than it was way back in 2020. The crypto down rounds are going to be hilarious. Note to

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

Look into SoRare’s volume. They raised over $500m. Volume is now lower than it was way back in 2020. The crypto down rounds are going to be hilarious. Note to investors: if you’re investing in crypto projects, carefully consider the ponzinomics and the vesting schedule. You want your unlocks to happen in the middle of the bullrun when exit liquidity is ample. And also remember that whatever you might think of as “normal” volume will crash 90%. And when you think it has stabilized, it will crash 90% more. The number of investors who bought the top is hilarious. But then, this is also a field where risk management is treated like a sin.

pg_bot 4y ago
Every single one of these web3 companies is going bust. They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to. There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall.
- anony23 4y ago
  VC money won't leave.
  - smachiz 4y ago
    This is what bag holders say.
- ackbar03 4y ago
  Yet some VCs are still plowing into web3. There was an article today about how Moellis was getting into Web3 companies. I'm genuinely curious what their thought process is. I tend to be in the camp that web3 is just a bunch of hot air seeing how cryptos been around for quite a while now with few use cases, but I also give benefit of the doubt there could be something there given the nature of tech.
  - itsoktocry 4y ago
    >Yet some VCs are still plowing into web3 Some VCs, some even with legendary reputations, are going to ruin said reputations from the scams they're pushing. In 10 years much of the sheen of Silicon Valley will have worn off. Tech will be as beloved as banking.
  - lordnacho 4y ago
    Moelis advise on M&A though. They get fees from companies doing steps with each other, which they do in both good times and bad (aka restructuring). I didn't think it meant Moelis was investing in those companies. It's like a lawyer getting into crypto, they do contracts for the companies, they're not buying tokens for themselves.
    - mr_gibbins 4y ago
      The ones who made fortunes during the American gold rush were the people selling shovels, not the ones panning for gold.
      - thematrixturtle 4y ago
        Unfortunately in the crypto winter, crypto shovel sellers like Coinbase are doing quite badly as well.
        bobnamob 4y ago
        I think you need to go a layer or two deeper to find the shovel vendors, maybe those selling compute?
        Someone 4y ago
        Nvidia and AMD sold quite a few GPUs to crypto miners.
        Strom 4y ago
- elevenoh 4y ago
- Melting_Harps 4y ago
  > There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall. Agreed, web3 was a joke... but the same thing can be said about most of disruptive tech like ride-sharing or food delivery, and even FAANGS are experiencing immense markdowns after the immense amount of liquidity poured into the stock market these 2 years. Being critical of the nature of this system also requires self-awareness; otherwise it's just projecting.
  - pg_bot 4y ago
    I've done my due diligence, there is no future in web3. I don't disparage early VCs who invested in blockchain startups because it is their job to put money into companies that could be revolutionary. However, the revolution has failed to materialize. While it may not be obvious to all it should become clearer in the coming months. When I say 'fraud' I don't mean juicing the numbers or asking forgiveness instead or permission. I'm not talking about things that will receive a slap on the wrist or a fine from a regulator. There is a great deal of organized crime that is the backbone of the industry. A lot of people will deserve to go to prison when the music stops.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      web3 is going to thrive whether you like it or not. Primarily because of three reasons: - Greed. Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. As long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system. - Gambling. The global gambling industry is half a trillion every year. Even if you think crypto has no fundamentals and is akin to gambling, it still represents a massive market. Opening a 50x long on a random shitcoin might be the same as yoloing in $10,000 at the roulette table. If the latter can happen sustainably, the former can as well. - Principles. Crypto/web3/blockchain - whatever you might call it - will continue to attract people at the edge cases simply because of the principles and narratives behind it. Self-sovreignity, privacy, ownership - these are ideas worth pursuing. If "web2" hadn't shut off its own users from any semblance of ownership in the platforms, or had done more for privacy, web3 would have died in 2017. But because they didn't, web3 will continue to find users simply because of the "privacy + self-ownership" narrative. More than anything else, I see the massive amounts of money flowing into web3 as a failure of the web2 platforms. If Facebook wasn't such a scummy company, and if Google wasn't tracking everything I do so maliciously, I would have completely ignored web3 as an idea.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  The older protocols that were built in the depth of 2018-19 bear markets will survive. Many of them are also doing wonderfully well in terms of revenue. COMP, MKR, AAVE, CRV all make a ton in revenue and have a well-defined product-market fit. Crypto projects are tough to value. Their sheer global scale means that they can ramp up revenue and even profits extremely fast. StepN, a move-to-earn app reportedly made $120M in profit in its first year of operation. That might not be sustainable, but what business wouldn't give an arm and a leg to make $120M profits in just one year of operation? Imo, crypto projects should be valued on 2-3x multiples at max.
  - lalaland1125 4y ago
    > StepN, a move-to-earn app reportedly made $120M in profit in its first year of operation StepN is literally a classic ponzi scheme. You buy in by paying out earlier investors in the hope that a greater fool will in turn buy you out.
  - stiltzkin 4y ago
    I do use StepN and should be noted that the $120 million was from the first quarter and the project has less than a year online. But that quarter GST and the sneakers were at ATH before the crash and people "invested" more than $1K for a pair of sneakers, earning were $30 dollars a day with a single common shoe and you could reach your ROI in 30 days. The numbers are different now as GST has crashed 98% and people who invested a lot in the first quarter have their ROI in years. The FitnessFi space has so much potential but StepN has new competition in the space which they are already starting with better ponzinomics and in web3 projects are community driven and StepN community will ape to the next one.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      The problem with any -Fi project (GameFi, FitFi, etc.) is always that the tokeonomics get derailed by speculators. In-game economics become unsustainable when outside investors who have no real interest in the game itself start pouring in money. Suddenly prices that might have made for a sustainable year long run become too expensive, pricing out real users.
- eric_cc 4y ago
  > They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to. How would you build a decentralized, cross-chain asset exchange without a blockchain? I agree there are far too many superfluous tokens. But there are plenty of real projects that are based on blockchain.
  - oblio 4y ago
    > But there are plenty of real projects that are based on blockchain. There are plenty of real projects based on blockchain, where if you take the blockchain out or just replace it with tech we've had for 40+ years, nothing of value is lost. That's the real blockchain problem.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- risyachka 4y ago
  >> They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to Sure, and all web2.0 tech can be built without AWS or docker. But in many cases, they give you a powerful advantage. Same with blockchain. What now is happening in web3.0 is not that different from the dot com bubble. But it busted, and then a ton of new profitable companies appeared. Blockchain tech will for sure have many legit use cases, same with tokens and tokenomics. Will most of the current crypto companies go bust? Probably. Does this mean that blockchain and tokens are crap? No.
  - smoldesu 4y ago
    > Blockchain tech will for sure have many legit use cases When?
    - oblio 4y ago
      Well, it will only take as long as for web 1.0 and web 2.0 to find legit use cases. What's that you say? Those technologies have legit cases from almost day 1, it just took the technology a bit to catch up? That's just like crypto tech. Ah, it isn't, you say? Blockchain has the tech but the list of legit and popular use cases only it can solve is almost 0 and we haven't really found new ones in almost 14 years?
      - smoldesu 4y ago
        I think you've basically defeated your own arguement. These Web3 principles of decentralization are not new, and fully possible to implement with Web2. Bittorrent, DNS, Napster, PeerTube, Matrix, Mastodon... all of them are Web2 software that use the smart principles of Web3 without adopting asinine smart contracts or self-sabotaging governance concepts. The Blockchain does have problems it can solve, they just got solved by Web2 first. Sorry.
        ChadNauseam 4y ago
        Try creating a fully decentralized version of Uniswap that’s resistant to attacks and isn’t based on a blockchain. it can’t be done.
- darkmarmot 4y ago
  Don't forget money laundering, human trafficking and drug sales! And destroying the environment through sheer waste is just the crypto cherry on top!
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> crypto down rounds are going to be hilarious That’s optimistic. Best case is orderly resolution and/or fire sales to Wall Street. Worst case: retail investors lose money while executives and senior employees see prosecution.
- muro 4y ago
  Why is worst case a bad outcome? It's all a scam and if people invest in it or propagate it, they shouldn't expect anything else.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > Why is worst case a bad outcome? It's all a scam and if people invest in it or propagate it, they shouldn't expect anything else The damage is already done. Either our laws were broken, and there will be more misery. Or our laws were not and they'll need to be revised. Even if justified, misery is misery. It's a worse outcome than customers getting their money back and nobody going to jail.
    - muro 4y ago
      I'm not sure. The value turned out to be less than investors imagined and so they are going to lose money, there is no way they get their money back. As for those that caused it, if it's a ponzi scheme, as many said before, why would prosecution be a bad outcome?
pjdkoch 4y ago
heresie-dabord 4y ago
aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
GameStop NFT did $2M the first day. Maybe everyone just doesn't know where the volume is? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32238127 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32238127
- kredd 4y ago
  I don’t follow crypto space that up close, but my understanding is, it’s mostly GME holders trying to make GameStop to look better on paper? Generating 2M isn’t hard if you have a few thousand people trading back and forth.
- snarf21 4y ago
  GameStop is a meme. It isn't the whole market.
  - aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
    All of their hires by the guy that founded Chewy is a meme? You're misinformed. Which is honestly fair, lots of disinfo on both sides of this fence.
    - bikingbismuth 4y ago
      Didn’t they just layoff a bunch of people and let go of their CFO?
- hgsgm 4y ago

pg_bot 4y ago

Every single one of these web3 companies is going bust. They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to. There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall.

anony23 4y ago
VC money won't leave.
- smachiz 4y ago
  This is what bag holders say.
ackbar03 4y ago
Yet some VCs are still plowing into web3. There was an article today about how Moellis was getting into Web3 companies. I'm genuinely curious what their thought process is. I tend to be in the camp that web3 is just a bunch of hot air seeing how cryptos been around for quite a while now with few use cases, but I also give benefit of the doubt there could be something there given the nature of tech.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >Yet some VCs are still plowing into web3 Some VCs, some even with legendary reputations, are going to ruin said reputations from the scams they're pushing. In 10 years much of the sheen of Silicon Valley will have worn off. Tech will be as beloved as banking.
- lordnacho 4y ago
  Moelis advise on M&A though. They get fees from companies doing steps with each other, which they do in both good times and bad (aka restructuring). I didn't think it meant Moelis was investing in those companies. It's like a lawyer getting into crypto, they do contracts for the companies, they're not buying tokens for themselves.
  - mr_gibbins 4y ago
    The ones who made fortunes during the American gold rush were the people selling shovels, not the ones panning for gold.
    - thematrixturtle 4y ago
      Unfortunately in the crypto winter, crypto shovel sellers like Coinbase are doing quite badly as well.
      - bobnamob 4y ago
        I think you need to go a layer or two deeper to find the shovel vendors, maybe those selling compute?
        Someone 4y ago
        Nvidia and AMD sold quite a few GPUs to crypto miners.
        Strom 4y ago
elevenoh 4y ago
Melting_Harps 4y ago
> There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall. Agreed, web3 was a joke... but the same thing can be said about most of disruptive tech like ride-sharing or food delivery, and even FAANGS are experiencing immense markdowns after the immense amount of liquidity poured into the stock market these 2 years. Being critical of the nature of this system also requires self-awareness; otherwise it's just projecting.
- pg_bot 4y ago
  I've done my due diligence, there is no future in web3. I don't disparage early VCs who invested in blockchain startups because it is their job to put money into companies that could be revolutionary. However, the revolution has failed to materialize. While it may not be obvious to all it should become clearer in the coming months. When I say 'fraud' I don't mean juicing the numbers or asking forgiveness instead or permission. I'm not talking about things that will receive a slap on the wrist or a fine from a regulator. There is a great deal of organized crime that is the backbone of the industry. A lot of people will deserve to go to prison when the music stops.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    web3 is going to thrive whether you like it or not. Primarily because of three reasons: - Greed. Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. As long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system. - Gambling. The global gambling industry is half a trillion every year. Even if you think crypto has no fundamentals and is akin to gambling, it still represents a massive market. Opening a 50x long on a random shitcoin might be the same as yoloing in $10,000 at the roulette table. If the latter can happen sustainably, the former can as well. - Principles. Crypto/web3/blockchain - whatever you might call it - will continue to attract people at the edge cases simply because of the principles and narratives behind it. Self-sovreignity, privacy, ownership - these are ideas worth pursuing. If "web2" hadn't shut off its own users from any semblance of ownership in the platforms, or had done more for privacy, web3 would have died in 2017. But because they didn't, web3 will continue to find users simply because of the "privacy + self-ownership" narrative. More than anything else, I see the massive amounts of money flowing into web3 as a failure of the web2 platforms. If Facebook wasn't such a scummy company, and if Google wasn't tracking everything I do so maliciously, I would have completely ignored web3 as an idea.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
The older protocols that were built in the depth of 2018-19 bear markets will survive. Many of them are also doing wonderfully well in terms of revenue. COMP, MKR, AAVE, CRV all make a ton in revenue and have a well-defined product-market fit. Crypto projects are tough to value. Their sheer global scale means that they can ramp up revenue and even profits extremely fast. StepN, a move-to-earn app reportedly made $120M in profit in its first year of operation. That might not be sustainable, but what business wouldn't give an arm and a leg to make $120M profits in just one year of operation? Imo, crypto projects should be valued on 2-3x multiples at max.
- lalaland1125 4y ago
  > StepN, a move-to-earn app reportedly made $120M in profit in its first year of operation StepN is literally a classic ponzi scheme. You buy in by paying out earlier investors in the hope that a greater fool will in turn buy you out.
- stiltzkin 4y ago
  I do use StepN and should be noted that the $120 million was from the first quarter and the project has less than a year online. But that quarter GST and the sneakers were at ATH before the crash and people "invested" more than $1K for a pair of sneakers, earning were $30 dollars a day with a single common shoe and you could reach your ROI in 30 days. The numbers are different now as GST has crashed 98% and people who invested a lot in the first quarter have their ROI in years. The FitnessFi space has so much potential but StepN has new competition in the space which they are already starting with better ponzinomics and in web3 projects are community driven and StepN community will ape to the next one.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    The problem with any -Fi project (GameFi, FitFi, etc.) is always that the tokeonomics get derailed by speculators. In-game economics become unsustainable when outside investors who have no real interest in the game itself start pouring in money. Suddenly prices that might have made for a sustainable year long run become too expensive, pricing out real users.
eric_cc 4y ago
> They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to. How would you build a decentralized, cross-chain asset exchange without a blockchain? I agree there are far too many superfluous tokens. But there are plenty of real projects that are based on blockchain.
- oblio 4y ago
  > But there are plenty of real projects that are based on blockchain. There are plenty of real projects based on blockchain, where if you take the blockchain out or just replace it with tech we've had for 40+ years, nothing of value is lost. That's the real blockchain problem.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
risyachka 4y ago
>> They could all be built without tokens or a blockchain if they wanted to Sure, and all web2.0 tech can be built without AWS or docker. But in many cases, they give you a powerful advantage. Same with blockchain. What now is happening in web3.0 is not that different from the dot com bubble. But it busted, and then a ton of new profitable companies appeared. Blockchain tech will for sure have many legit use cases, same with tokens and tokenomics. Will most of the current crypto companies go bust? Probably. Does this mean that blockchain and tokens are crap? No.
- smoldesu 4y ago
  > Blockchain tech will for sure have many legit use cases When?
  - oblio 4y ago
    Well, it will only take as long as for web 1.0 and web 2.0 to find legit use cases. What's that you say? Those technologies have legit cases from almost day 1, it just took the technology a bit to catch up? That's just like crypto tech. Ah, it isn't, you say? Blockchain has the tech but the list of legit and popular use cases only it can solve is almost 0 and we haven't really found new ones in almost 14 years?
    - smoldesu 4y ago
      I think you've basically defeated your own arguement. These Web3 principles of decentralization are not new, and fully possible to implement with Web2. Bittorrent, DNS, Napster, PeerTube, Matrix, Mastodon... all of them are Web2 software that use the smart principles of Web3 without adopting asinine smart contracts or self-sabotaging governance concepts. The Blockchain does have problems it can solve, they just got solved by Web2 first. Sorry.
      - ChadNauseam 4y ago
        Try creating a fully decentralized version of Uniswap that’s resistant to attacks and isn’t based on a blockchain. it can’t be done.
darkmarmot 4y ago
Don't forget money laundering, human trafficking and drug sales! And destroying the environment through sheer waste is just the crypto cherry on top!

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> crypto down rounds are going to be hilarious That’s optimistic. Best case is orderly resolution and/or fire sales to Wall Street. Worst case: retail investors lose money while executives and senior employees see prosecution.

muro 4y ago
Why is worst case a bad outcome? It's all a scam and if people invest in it or propagate it, they shouldn't expect anything else.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Why is worst case a bad outcome? It's all a scam and if people invest in it or propagate it, they shouldn't expect anything else The damage is already done. Either our laws were broken, and there will be more misery. Or our laws were not and they'll need to be revised. Even if justified, misery is misery. It's a worse outcome than customers getting their money back and nobody going to jail.
  - muro 4y ago
    I'm not sure. The value turned out to be less than investors imagined and so they are going to lose money, there is no way they get their money back. As for those that caused it, if it's a ponzi scheme, as many said before, why would prosecution be a bad outcome?

pjdkoch 4y ago

heresie-dabord 4y ago

aaaaaaaaata 4y ago

GameStop NFT did $2M the first day. Maybe everyone just doesn't know where the volume is? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32238127 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32238127

kredd 4y ago
I don’t follow crypto space that up close, but my understanding is, it’s mostly GME holders trying to make GameStop to look better on paper? Generating 2M isn’t hard if you have a few thousand people trading back and forth.
snarf21 4y ago
GameStop is a meme. It isn't the whole market.
- aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
  All of their hires by the guy that founded Chewy is a meme? You're misinformed. Which is honestly fair, lots of disinfo on both sides of this fence.
  - bikingbismuth 4y ago
    Didn’t they just layoff a bunch of people and let go of their CFO?
hgsgm 4y ago