19 ms·
When it first started spreading outside of Africa I was concerned because the reported fatality rate was something like 5-10% Now we have tens of thousands of
by tempsy 4y ago
When it first started spreading outside of Africa I was concerned because the reported fatality rate was something like 5-10%
Now we have tens of thousands of cases outside of Africa and it doesn’t appear to be lethal at all and goes away on its own. Depending on the severity it seems like the biggest issue is pain/itchiness for a week or so.
So what’s the “emergency” in that context?
- HL33tibCe7 4y agoThe fatality rate depends on the strain. And of course, the demographic of people with the disease. Currently in Western countries almost all cases are in young, healthy men.
- samhyde69 4y ago
- Originami 4y agoThornhill et al, NEJM, MPOX summary: -98% gay/bisexual -41% have concurrent HIV -95% transmission by sexual activity -13% hospitalized for derm/anogenital lesions -No deaths https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2207323 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2207323
- JaceLightning 4y agoCan't it leave disfiguring scars?
- tempsy 4y agoIs that alone cause for declaring something a public health emergency? I’ve only seen videos of men who have contracted and recovered from it and no one mentioned disfiguring scars so far and couldn’t tell that was an issue myself based on their appearance.
- HarryHirsch 4y ago
- jeofken 4y ago
- ribeyes 4y ago
- dang 4y ago> We wish you would get yourself monkeypox out of the gym and give it to your wife or your child gets monkeypox out of school I can barely believe that you would post something as awful and as shameful as this, not once but twice (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32216037 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32216037). Obviously we have to ban accounts that post like this. I'm not going to ban you right now, but if you pull something like this again on HN, we will have to. Please review the rules and stick to them regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- abeppu 4y agoMaybe that's not a good sample? Both by size, and selection, insofar as if you've recently got disfiguring scars perhaps you'd be less likely to make and share a video of yourself. Also, how long does it take to know if marks from pox sores are going to be permanent scars anyway? Or how much they might fade? This is all so recent that even if you did still have marks on your face afterwards, could you really know whether they'll be "disfiguring" in the future?
- tshaddox 4y agoA contagious disease that makes a lot of people sick, has a considerable death rate, and often causes scars is definitely cause for declaring a public health emergency. Under what possible definition of the term would you think otherwise?
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- dmitriid 4y ago> So what’s the “emergency” in that context? You've named it: "tens of thousands of cases outside of Africa". It entered the white world (disclaimer: I'm white myself). On top of that we've just lived through (hopefully) the worst if the COVID pandemic, so WHO is additionally spooked.
- tempsy 4y agoMy critique is that this could create a “boy who cried wolf” scenario. And apparently this decision was actually an overrule by the director - a panel actually voted against it.
- skeeter2020 4y agoI agree with this risk. What wave of Covid are we ever-vigilant against currently?
- ricardobayes 4y agoBecause this is affecting the western world, it gets a huge attention. I'll keep dreaming of a world where headlines are about the 1.5 million confirmed deaths caused by diarrhea globally. Instead of a disease with 0 deaths in Europe out of 10k+ cases. But of course no one wants lesions because they don't look pretty on the gram.
- lesstyzing 4y ago>> I'll keep dreaming of a world where headlines are about the 1.5 million confirmed deaths caused by diarrhea globally But that's not news. That's well known. Also, generalising 'news' makes no sense. Of course news sources from certain countries will focus on news that effects their readers. Deaths from diarrhea are of little relevance to the readers of any 'western' news source.
- rajup 4y ago> You've named it: "tens of thousands of cases outside of Africa". It entered the white world (disclaimer: I'm white myself). You’re probably being downvoted for this though it’s completely true.
- ISL 4y agoIt is the first poxvirus to spread across the globe since the eradication of smallpox. Vaccines exist, unlike at the outset of Covid, but not at the scale necessary to vaccinate the world and move on. Even if monkeypox is only an annoyance (which I doubt), if 7 billion people all have to get sick for a week, that deprives humanity of ~134 million people-years of life that they'd rather spend doing something else -- even if there are no longer-lasting impacts.
- MichaelCollins 4y ago> It is the first poxvirus to spread across the globe since the eradication of smallpox. How do you figure? I got chickenpox in the 90s.
- danielfoster 4y agoThis comment does not contribute anything to the discussion. I think chickenpox spread before smallpox in any case?
- gringo_flamingo 4y ago
- 0xcde4c3db 4y agoDespite the name, the virus that causes chickenpox is classified as a herpes virus, not a pox virus.
- ethbr0 4y agoChickenpox is caused by varicella zoster, which is a herpes virus. Which is why it can linger and re-emerge as shingles decades later. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varicella_zoster_virus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varicella_zoster_virus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Cause https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Cause Similar symptoms, substantially different family trees.
- 4y ago
- ethbr0 4y agoI'd hazard the WHO discomfort with "wait and see" is (1) lingering institutional shame at failing to warn about SARS-CoV-2 in a timely manner, (2) unexpectedly high transmissibility and geographic spread, (3) it's an orthopoxvirus, and while distant from smallpox... it's not that distant, (4) largely unvaccinated world population, and (5) history of diseases which are circulating in men-who-have-sex-with-men being ignored (read: HIV). Honestly, IMHO, this is what the WHO should be doing: looking at the potential for pandemics and making moves ahead of time. (2) & (4) should be enough to scare the crap out of anyone who accepts the possibility of mutations once it's more widely circulating. Smallpox is objectively horrific, and its eradication was one of public health's greatest modern triumphs. So anything close should be taken seriously. Not panic. But pragmatic seriousness. (WARNING: Not for the faint of heart) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox
- ratsmack 4y ago
- ethbr0 4y agoWorldwide organizations operate across national boundaries via consensus and voluntary agreement. Off the top of my head, the only forceful worldwide organization we have is the UN Security Council, which is finely calibrated. And historically predicated on ownership of nuclear arms. Consequently, the job of every other worldwide organization is to (a) build political goodwill with nations & (b) spend that political goodwill to urge them to take actions, when the situation calls for it. If those nations dig their heels in, it becomes a choice. Do you want to burn bridges because the current situation is that important? Or do you want to let things slide to maintain the relationship and preserve future goodwill? Hint: There isn't an obvious right answer. Especially when you're looking forward at a novel, uncharacterized pathogen with unknown effects.
- nyokodo 4y ago> maintain the relationship and preserve future goodwill If the relationship involves lies and cover ups that caused this pandemic to get out of control leading to millions of deaths and massive global disruption, what is the value of the relationship in the future?
- skeeter2020 4y agoBased on what politicians like the head of the WHO learned from Covid, you can't go wrong with a strategy of "better safe than sorry!" that willfully ignores the real costs of this policy. It's politically better to save 1 person directly than 100 indirectly. You can't execute this policy without the looming urgency of an emergency, so you declare one despite that your SMEs are unwilling to do so. That's "strong leadership"!
- dannyw 4y agoNothing better than prolonging the life expectancy of someone in their last few years or months of their natural lives with little bodily functions intact; while deferring vital surgery for teenagers and destroying the mental health of the entire planet (ask any psychologist).
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- samhyde69 4y ago
- ZoomerCretin 4y agoThe emergency is that the fatality rate in children is 15%. Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6478203/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6478203/
- stjohnswarts 4y agoMaybe it's developed a new tendency to mutate like covid and could turn into something worse. Sounds like it's time to make vaccines available.
- missedthecue 4y agoWasn't the concern when covid started losing lethality all about mutations?
- vkou 4y agoCovid hasn't lost lethality. Delta was much more serious than the original strain, Omicron is about as serious, but more contageous. It has lost lethality in our population, thanks to a high vaccination rate, and a better understanding of how to care for people with it. And, of course, nobody knows how lethal the dominant strain of COVID that will be circulating in 2023 is going to be.
- winrid 4y agoLasting scaring?