5 ms·

Yes, it's good real wages are declining given the inflationary backdrop. But politicians fighting inflation with higher wages and stimulus checks, as well as t

Yes, it's good real wages are declining given the inflationary backdrop. But politicians fighting inflation with higher wages and stimulus checks, as well as the chorus of idiots cheering them on, repeating the same mistakes as the 70s, is quite mindblowing. How far do consumer sentiment and approval ratings have to drop for people to wake up to basic economic realities? They didn't have the internet in the 70s, by the way.

XorNot 4y ago
How much money do you think $600 actually is? People have been going on and on as though $600 was too much inflationary pressure. You get that that is less then 1 months rent, right?
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  It was over $4T in stimulus, and extended far beyond individual stimulus checks. Which doesn't even include forbearances that add a few T more in consumer spending power, or artificially low interest rates driven by the Fed Here's your inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI Maybe you can clue some of the others into it. Not like we have the internet and easily observable datapoints that makes it quite obvious huh. Instead have to hear the inane idiocy of economically illiterate people promoting policy that does the opposite of what they want to achieve
  - XorNot 4y ago
    If you include GDP next to those two graphs, then the story is quite different: retail spending is following the increase in GDP, and pay is lagging it: https://i.imgur.com/4VtMsBW.png https://i.imgur.com/4VtMsBW.png The stimulus bumps are quite visible, but subsequent data is right in line.
    - adam_arthur 4y ago
      GDP is just a measure of total dollars spent in the economy. So of course if you print money and hand it to people, GDP goes up (nominally)
      - XorNot 4y ago
        But personal income does not, which as noted is already observably a visible spike (from adjacent) in the graph you cited. So where is the driven increase in retail spending coming from since it observably is not being delivered from the government to citizens.
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        It does via inflation which is why it's rising faster than the pre-covid trend
        XorNot 4y ago
        You have so far failed to point to any metric such explains the inflation, which is what you claimed linking to those metrics did. So apparently taking about personal income was just happenstance, since you pretty obviously were trying to say "it's rising wages that are doing it" and then have been backpedaling everytime I press you to explain why. So we face successfully established there's inflation, and you've made no argument as to why we should think it's fiscal policy related rather than supply chain - you know, that big thing which has been stressed and suffering shortages repeatedly the last 2.5 years.
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        I have explained it, but your bias clouds your judgment, sorry. Supply of effectively every good is higher than prepandemic. Demand is even higher. Retail sales have exploded vastly above trend due to fiscal injections. This is NOT a supply side issue, this is consumers mass buying which leads to shortages. If it were a supply side issue, you'd see big hits to corporate earnings, instead they became massively inflated due to excess consumer spending. Personal income is rising much faster than sustainable for 2% inflation. Are you aware that money is nominal? People getting paid more means nothing if prices rise faster than they're getting paid. There's zero inherent value to a dollar. Inflation is a product of supply and demand, not just one or the other. When there's an imbalance, prices rise to a new equilibrium point. Go on, cheer for higher nominal wages as consumer sentiment sits at all time lows and real wages are deteriorating faster than any time in history
- Negitivefrags 4y ago
  It doesn’t really matter. It’s more money chasing the exact same number of resources as existed before hand. The very definition of inflation. It’s just bread and circuses.
  - XorNot 4y ago
    Again, it's less then 1 month's rent. Really think about what you're suggesting here.
    - jahewson 4y ago
      It wasn’t $600 though: $1,200 per adult in April 2020, $500 per child. $600 per adult in December 2020/January 2021, same per child $1,400 per adult in March 2021, same per child. A fully qualified two adult, two child household received $11,400. For a median income of 2x $31k, that’s 9% of the household’s per annum income. If you both had a job during covid, as most people did, it’s pure inflation.
      - XorNot 4y ago
        This is just garbage. The demand for stimulus was in reaction to the increase in most expenses due to supply chain shortages induced by COVID and lockdowns, and the continuing hike in prices has been due to the follow up war. The record profits - not revenue but profits - the big companies have posted over this time period prove it. Inflation is measured via a basket of goods measure, and corporations have freely taken all those basics and gone "welp must be circumstance" while posting those profits. Prices surged before any stimulus was handed out.
  - crooked-v 4y ago
    So take away some money from the 0.01% to compensate. Since that select group of people holds 20% of the total wealth in the US, there's plenty of wiggle room.
    - Negitivefrags 4y ago
- jahewson 4y ago
  How do you define “too much inflationary pressure”? Timing is important and the timing was not great - though obviously there wasn’t much choice.
- bioemerl 4y ago
  It was: 600 a week for people on unemployment on top of normal unemployment. 1400 of stimulus checks to a large percentage of Americans. PPP loans given to business that large weren't paid back Lots of little stuff that funded stresses institutions. Stimulus isn't too blame at all for the inflation we are facing, supply chain limits and war are also responsible. However, to say stimulus was "just 600 dollars" is crazy misrepresentative and totally ignores that the American stimulus package was literally the most robust and impactful examples of stimulus in the world.

XorNot 4y ago

How much money do you think $600 actually is? People have been going on and on as though $600 was too much inflationary pressure. You get that that is less then 1 months rent, right?

adam_arthur 4y ago
It was over $4T in stimulus, and extended far beyond individual stimulus checks. Which doesn't even include forbearances that add a few T more in consumer spending power, or artificially low interest rates driven by the Fed Here's your inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI Maybe you can clue some of the others into it. Not like we have the internet and easily observable datapoints that makes it quite obvious huh. Instead have to hear the inane idiocy of economically illiterate people promoting policy that does the opposite of what they want to achieve
- XorNot 4y ago
  If you include GDP next to those two graphs, then the story is quite different: retail spending is following the increase in GDP, and pay is lagging it: https://i.imgur.com/4VtMsBW.png https://i.imgur.com/4VtMsBW.png The stimulus bumps are quite visible, but subsequent data is right in line.
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    GDP is just a measure of total dollars spent in the economy. So of course if you print money and hand it to people, GDP goes up (nominally)
    - XorNot 4y ago
      But personal income does not, which as noted is already observably a visible spike (from adjacent) in the graph you cited. So where is the driven increase in retail spending coming from since it observably is not being delivered from the government to citizens.
      - adam_arthur 4y ago
        It does via inflation which is why it's rising faster than the pre-covid trend
        XorNot 4y ago
        You have so far failed to point to any metric such explains the inflation, which is what you claimed linking to those metrics did. So apparently taking about personal income was just happenstance, since you pretty obviously were trying to say "it's rising wages that are doing it" and then have been backpedaling everytime I press you to explain why. So we face successfully established there's inflation, and you've made no argument as to why we should think it's fiscal policy related rather than supply chain - you know, that big thing which has been stressed and suffering shortages repeatedly the last 2.5 years.
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        I have explained it, but your bias clouds your judgment, sorry. Supply of effectively every good is higher than prepandemic. Demand is even higher. Retail sales have exploded vastly above trend due to fiscal injections. This is NOT a supply side issue, this is consumers mass buying which leads to shortages. If it were a supply side issue, you'd see big hits to corporate earnings, instead they became massively inflated due to excess consumer spending. Personal income is rising much faster than sustainable for 2% inflation. Are you aware that money is nominal? People getting paid more means nothing if prices rise faster than they're getting paid. There's zero inherent value to a dollar. Inflation is a product of supply and demand, not just one or the other. When there's an imbalance, prices rise to a new equilibrium point. Go on, cheer for higher nominal wages as consumer sentiment sits at all time lows and real wages are deteriorating faster than any time in history
Negitivefrags 4y ago
It doesn’t really matter. It’s more money chasing the exact same number of resources as existed before hand. The very definition of inflation. It’s just bread and circuses.
- XorNot 4y ago
  Again, it's less then 1 month's rent. Really think about what you're suggesting here.
  - jahewson 4y ago
    It wasn’t $600 though: $1,200 per adult in April 2020, $500 per child. $600 per adult in December 2020/January 2021, same per child $1,400 per adult in March 2021, same per child. A fully qualified two adult, two child household received $11,400. For a median income of 2x $31k, that’s 9% of the household’s per annum income. If you both had a job during covid, as most people did, it’s pure inflation.
    - XorNot 4y ago
      This is just garbage. The demand for stimulus was in reaction to the increase in most expenses due to supply chain shortages induced by COVID and lockdowns, and the continuing hike in prices has been due to the follow up war. The record profits - not revenue but profits - the big companies have posted over this time period prove it. Inflation is measured via a basket of goods measure, and corporations have freely taken all those basics and gone "welp must be circumstance" while posting those profits. Prices surged before any stimulus was handed out.
- crooked-v 4y ago
  So take away some money from the 0.01% to compensate. Since that select group of people holds 20% of the total wealth in the US, there's plenty of wiggle room.
  - Negitivefrags 4y ago
jahewson 4y ago
How do you define “too much inflationary pressure”? Timing is important and the timing was not great - though obviously there wasn’t much choice.
bioemerl 4y ago
It was: 600 a week for people on unemployment on top of normal unemployment. 1400 of stimulus checks to a large percentage of Americans. PPP loans given to business that large weren't paid back Lots of little stuff that funded stresses institutions. Stimulus isn't too blame at all for the inflation we are facing, supply chain limits and war are also responsible. However, to say stimulus was "just 600 dollars" is crazy misrepresentative and totally ignores that the American stimulus package was literally the most robust and impactful examples of stimulus in the world.