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While there is still a open question about how much the sudden reversal of monetary policy from the last 15 years of "hey! all the money can print" that led to

While there is still a open question about how much the sudden reversal of monetary policy from the last 15 years of "hey! all the money can print" that led to companies going into debt to purchase their own stock to "oh crap, inflation, let's tighten the money supply" affects the durability of companies... that said... There are some very hyperbolic people comparing this to the .COM crash and also to 2008/2009. In 2001, there was literally a site doing nothing but reporting in flamboyant terms all of the "fucked companies" going under. IIRC, it was dozens a day, at one point, with people stating that the Internet had failed, and it was all going down the drain. In 2008, absolutely no one had any clue what was going on but everyone knew it was catastrophically bad. People were trying to guess if it would be merely the worst recession ever or the second great depression. This so far seems like a fairly normal correction. We will see if Debt blows up and changes that.

pirate787 4y ago
Contagion is ripping through crypto, at least, in a way that's more like 2008.
- htormey 4y ago
  Nah, I disagree. I work in crypto (coinbase) and was working in tech in the Bay Area in 2008. As of today, many crypto companies have money from 2021/early 2022 raises and are still hiring. In 2008 the private tech market reaction to the stock market crash was swift and brutal. It was really hard to get a job in 2008. Today it feels like their is a big lag between stock pullbacks and jobs drying up. None of my colleagues who were laid off are having trouble getting jobs in crypto and have options in other parts of tech if they want it. To be clear I expect the jobs situation to get worse this year and in 2023.
  - anbotero 4y ago
    Why do you expect jobs situation to get worse in 2023? Shouldn’t these corrections happen now so companies plan their runway to ~2 years?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - htormey 4y ago
      Scenario I’m worried about: inflation continues, rates keep increasing and this to impact public company earnings. In an effort to mitigate this, companies will cut costs by firing people, slowing hiring and cutting services and advertising. This will then impact private companies ability to raise.
ptero 4y ago
I do not see comparisons of today with 2001 or 2008 as hyperbolic. I was working during both of those and remember them as fairly localized. Large areas were demolished, but there were plenty of other areas to move into for sharp, technically literate folks. I had friends who, in 1999, were freshly-minted millionaires at Microstrategy, then lost it all less than a year later. And a friend who joined Lehman after his Wharton MBA in the summer of 2006. While it was not fun to be in the middle of the burst they all easily found high paying jobs within a few months. I suspect this crisis may be worse as, after spending trillions on covid lockdowns, we have fewer options to spend our way out of this problem. The pain in both 2001 and 2008/9 was limited as the US pumped money into economy and inflated another bubble just as the previous one was bursting, and I think this option is not easy to use today. But I am not an economist, we shall see in a couple of years how this shakes up.
- ghaff 4y ago
  In the technology sector 2000/2001 was pretty bad. Obviously some large established companies weathered the storm relatively well. But the carnage even at companies like Cisco and EMC was immense. And they were still a lot better off than the dot-bombs. A ton of people were unemployed or underemployed for a long time and quite a few left the industry. I was laid off right after 9/11 and I have no illusions that I was very lucky to land a job (at reduced comp with someone I knew well) quickly given that I otherwise didn't even have a nibble.
- matwood 4y ago
  I went through both 2001 and 2008. Maybe crypto is relatable, but beyond that it's not close. Overall, companies have great balance sheets now. The VC funded, questionable businesses will have some washouts. But, in 2008 the whole financial system was coming apart - not localized at all. I remember going long on BofA and thinking if they go under it doesn't matter if I lose my investment.
  - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
    I went through both, as well, and I'd say this is maybe similar to the early stages of the 2000/2001 contraction in that it's in particular affecting tech and happening rather slowly. Certainly not 2008, which was abrupt and severe, but didn't affect the tech sector as strongly as other sectors. I wouldn't rule out that in 6 months the parallels with 2001 are more pronounced. However I agree it's not really close, especially with Google/Facebook/Apple/Amazon, etc. are still printing money at an incredible rate and that money continues to sprinkle into other parts of our sector. During the .com crash there was a severe pullback in general on investment in the online startup space in general and it wasn't until the Google IPO that I felt we were truly out of that phase.
shadowtree 4y ago
Well, there is this: https://layoffs.fyi/ https://layoffs.fyi/ and many other offshoots.
- 29athrowaway 4y ago
  https://www.thelayoff.com/ https://www.thelayoff.com/
rednerrus 4y ago
The difference between now and 2001 is the reliance the rest of the world has on the tech we work on. Some of this stuff is trivial but a lot of it has people/enterprises that rely on the work we do.
UkrainianJew 4y ago
- tptacek 4y ago
  It's comparable in the sense that you can write a message board post tying them together. It's not comparable in any other sense.
grey-area 4y ago
We’re at the tail end of the largest asset bubble in history with near 10% inflation, war, pandemic, debt at > 100% GDP and interest rates rising from a decade near 0. None of this is normal and what follows won’t be either.
- supernovae 4y ago
  The 80s,90s and 2000s would like a word with you.
  - grey-area 4y ago
    There are quite a few differences, the crypto bubble is similar to 2000 I guess. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ (see market cap) https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL#0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL#0 This won’t end well and in the current environment of high inflation the fed has no choice but to raise interest rates and companies will continue to layoff into the recession.
    - supernovae 4y ago
      Sure, there are differences... but in the 80s, i remember people burning their houses down to collect insurance money because of things like high interest rates, high inflation and the savings and loan scandal amongst following a huge energy crisis, a huge escallation in the cold war, political strife and so much more. As for the fed, they're raising interest rates to cool things off - hopefully people are investing in ibonds and just maybe savings accounts will see more than 5th of 1% again so there are some upsides. Layoffs? they're happening but unemployment still went down.
dan_quixote 4y ago
Judging by the number of people living paycheck-to-paycheck, I think all it will take is a slight uptick in layoffs to light the fuse for another housing crash.
searchableguy 4y ago
> In 2001, there was literally a site doing nothing but reporting in flamboyant terms all of the "fucked companies" going under. IIRC You mean like https://rekt.news https://rekt.news ?

pirate787 4y ago

Contagion is ripping through crypto, at least, in a way that's more like 2008.

htormey 4y ago
Nah, I disagree. I work in crypto (coinbase) and was working in tech in the Bay Area in 2008. As of today, many crypto companies have money from 2021/early 2022 raises and are still hiring. In 2008 the private tech market reaction to the stock market crash was swift and brutal. It was really hard to get a job in 2008. Today it feels like their is a big lag between stock pullbacks and jobs drying up. None of my colleagues who were laid off are having trouble getting jobs in crypto and have options in other parts of tech if they want it. To be clear I expect the jobs situation to get worse this year and in 2023.
- anbotero 4y ago
  Why do you expect jobs situation to get worse in 2023? Shouldn’t these corrections happen now so companies plan their runway to ~2 years?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - htormey 4y ago
    Scenario I’m worried about: inflation continues, rates keep increasing and this to impact public company earnings. In an effort to mitigate this, companies will cut costs by firing people, slowing hiring and cutting services and advertising. This will then impact private companies ability to raise.

ptero 4y ago

I do not see comparisons of today with 2001 or 2008 as hyperbolic. I was working during both of those and remember them as fairly localized. Large areas were demolished, but there were plenty of other areas to move into for sharp, technically literate folks. I had friends who, in 1999, were freshly-minted millionaires at Microstrategy, then lost it all less than a year later. And a friend who joined Lehman after his Wharton MBA in the summer of 2006. While it was not fun to be in the middle of the burst they all easily found high paying jobs within a few months. I suspect this crisis may be worse as, after spending trillions on covid lockdowns, we have fewer options to spend our way out of this problem. The pain in both 2001 and 2008/9 was limited as the US pumped money into economy and inflated another bubble just as the previous one was bursting, and I think this option is not easy to use today. But I am not an economist, we shall see in a couple of years how this shakes up.

ghaff 4y ago
In the technology sector 2000/2001 was pretty bad. Obviously some large established companies weathered the storm relatively well. But the carnage even at companies like Cisco and EMC was immense. And they were still a lot better off than the dot-bombs. A ton of people were unemployed or underemployed for a long time and quite a few left the industry. I was laid off right after 9/11 and I have no illusions that I was very lucky to land a job (at reduced comp with someone I knew well) quickly given that I otherwise didn't even have a nibble.
matwood 4y ago
I went through both 2001 and 2008. Maybe crypto is relatable, but beyond that it's not close. Overall, companies have great balance sheets now. The VC funded, questionable businesses will have some washouts. But, in 2008 the whole financial system was coming apart - not localized at all. I remember going long on BofA and thinking if they go under it doesn't matter if I lose my investment.
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  I went through both, as well, and I'd say this is maybe similar to the early stages of the 2000/2001 contraction in that it's in particular affecting tech and happening rather slowly. Certainly not 2008, which was abrupt and severe, but didn't affect the tech sector as strongly as other sectors. I wouldn't rule out that in 6 months the parallels with 2001 are more pronounced. However I agree it's not really close, especially with Google/Facebook/Apple/Amazon, etc. are still printing money at an incredible rate and that money continues to sprinkle into other parts of our sector. During the .com crash there was a severe pullback in general on investment in the online startup space in general and it wasn't until the Google IPO that I felt we were truly out of that phase.

shadowtree 4y ago

Well, there is this: https://layoffs.fyi/ https://layoffs.fyi/ and many other offshoots.

29athrowaway 4y ago
https://www.thelayoff.com/ https://www.thelayoff.com/

rednerrus 4y ago

The difference between now and 2001 is the reliance the rest of the world has on the tech we work on. Some of this stuff is trivial but a lot of it has people/enterprises that rely on the work we do.

UkrainianJew 4y ago

tptacek 4y ago
It's comparable in the sense that you can write a message board post tying them together. It's not comparable in any other sense.

grey-area 4y ago

We’re at the tail end of the largest asset bubble in history with near 10% inflation, war, pandemic, debt at > 100% GDP and interest rates rising from a decade near 0. None of this is normal and what follows won’t be either.

supernovae 4y ago
The 80s,90s and 2000s would like a word with you.
- grey-area 4y ago
  There are quite a few differences, the crypto bubble is similar to 2000 I guess. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ (see market cap) https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL#0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL#0 This won’t end well and in the current environment of high inflation the fed has no choice but to raise interest rates and companies will continue to layoff into the recession.
  - supernovae 4y ago
    Sure, there are differences... but in the 80s, i remember people burning their houses down to collect insurance money because of things like high interest rates, high inflation and the savings and loan scandal amongst following a huge energy crisis, a huge escallation in the cold war, political strife and so much more. As for the fed, they're raising interest rates to cool things off - hopefully people are investing in ibonds and just maybe savings accounts will see more than 5th of 1% again so there are some upsides. Layoffs? they're happening but unemployment still went down.

dan_quixote 4y ago

Judging by the number of people living paycheck-to-paycheck, I think all it will take is a slight uptick in layoffs to light the fuse for another housing crash.

searchableguy 4y ago

> In 2001, there was literally a site doing nothing but reporting in flamboyant terms all of the "fucked companies" going under. IIRC You mean like https://rekt.news https://rekt.news ?