7 ms·
At +3 or +4 degrees celsius, expect people to die in India, Amazonia, Nigeria, parts of Pacific Islands. There will be a lot of climatic migrants, I guess many
by jokoon 4y ago
At +3 or +4 degrees celsius, expect people to die in India, Amazonia, Nigeria, parts of Pacific Islands.
There will be a lot of climatic migrants, I guess many more than the ones caused by the Syrian civil war or the invasion of Ukraine. Just imagine people fleeing the heat.
I live in the south of france, and I already want to move out to a colder place. Summers are too long.
Maybe there is a taboo about heat, because heatwaves are just not bearable, at least for me.
- shmde 4y agoA lot of people die in India during harsh summers due to heatwaves and sunstroke. This would only increase the victims. I asked my dad how they used to manage without Air Conditioning during summers and he said that he doesn't remember summers to be this hot. This proves that Either Climate change is real or my dad just got accustomed to the Air Conditioning through the years.
- bowsamic 4y ago> This proves that Either Climate change is real I mean obviously you cannot seriously doubt this right?? EDIT: I should clarify, climate change definitely is real, it has huge scientific consensus, and not believing in it is pure conspiracy
- BlargMcLarg 4y agoYou're definitely not alone. I've contemplated a vacation home in some colder climate or getting a basement just to deal with the summers. You can definitely survive most of Europe, but barely functioning for several days to months just isn't fun.
- baisq 4y agoIn Spain the whole country stops during August.
- helloworld11 4y agoI don't see it. Literally billions of people live in tropical countries and somehow seem to manage fine. I myself live in a country that's almost entirely below the tropic of Cancer and while summer heat gets uncomfortable, it's far from unbearable. Let's put a brake on the hyperbole, at least so far, in the absence of concrete evidence of temperatures truly becoming unbearable for billions of people. If millions of migrants from tropical underdeveloped regions of the world are fleeing to the northern world, for now at least it's definitely not because of climate problems. Political troubles of all sorts are a much more immediately pressing issue.
- micromacrofoot 4y agoLet's say only 1% of the global population lives on the cusp of unbearable temperatures. That's 80 million people. That's more than 10 times the number of Syrian refugees.
- bowsamic 4y ago> Let's put a brake on the hyperbole, at least so far, in the absence of concrete evidence of temperatures truly becoming unbearable for billions of people. Are you saying we should literally wait for billions of people to die?
- sokoloff 4y agoYou really stomped on the hyperbole brakes there…
- vincentmarle 4y agolooks at weather report for southern france for this week That’s a very mild summer, I’m located in Southern California where my nights are warmer than your peak day temperatures. During daytime it can be over 45 degrees Celsius. But ACs are everywhere so it makes it livable. I’m guessing most homes in Europe don’t have that.
- Aeolun 4y agoI also imagine California is very dry? Edit: Never mind, seems to be very humid North, and fairly average South.
- hollerith 4y agoThe parts separated from the coast by mountains are very dry. Also because the water off the coast is cold, it never gets very hot and humid at the same time anywhere in the western US. For that you need to be near a large body of very warm water. Specifically, in all of the west coast of the US except the bottom quarter of CA (where the ocean is a little warmer) the weather is cool and humid when the wind is blowing from the west (which it is most of the time) and dry and potentially very hot when it is blowing from the east. Well, it is a little more complicated than that because every morning the sun heats the land, but not the ocean, which causes wind to flow from ocean to land, then every evening that flow is reversed, so my previous statement refers to the general flow of air masses in the absence of this diurnal coastal wind.
- tokai 4y ago>ACs are everywhere so it makes it livable Except for outside. Also what do you hope to achieve with playing misery poker over this.
- _ph_ 4y agoIndeed, AC in private homes is still relatively rare. Of course, in recent years it became more fashionable. Also, a lot of houses in the traditional hot regions of Europe are built to be livable without air conditioning. In my eyes, he biggest impact in recent years has been to the traditionally more moderate regions, where there is no AC and houses or clothing and social habits are not tuned for hot temperatures. In Germany, it was almost welcomed to feel to hot for the very few hot days (if any) it had through the year. Nowadays, we definitely have hotter and more intense summers.
- dmd 4y ago> in the south of france So... north of almost the entire continental United States?
- ghaff 4y agoIn general, because of the Gulf Stream, western Europe is warmer than you would expect relative to the US based on latitude. Many Americans who are even somewhat familiar with Europe would be surprised how relatively far north Europe is.
- I_complete_me 4y agoIndeed, I found it very surprising that the latitudes of New York City and Rome are 40.7N and 41.8N respectively, especially when you consider the winters New York City can get.
- yodsanklai 4y ago> I live in the south of france, and I already want to move out to a colder place. Summers are too long. Ironically, you may want to move to a hotter place where AC is pervasive. I was suffering from the hot French summer too, but doing fine in NYC or Singapore. French summer is too short so people haven't been using AC traditionally. Conversely, some warmer countries like Greece or Taiwan don't always have heaters and live in coldish houses in winter.
- sph 4y agoI'm in the market for a house and friends make fun of me when I say I do not want to live in Southern Europe because of climate change, even though I miss it. Whenever I'll buy, I have to consider that in 30 years it's going to be hotter and I'll be 65 years old. I used to live in Italy, it's going to be up to 39C in Rome the next two weeks. I'll miss the sea and the food by staying north, though we'll be planting cantaloupes and prickly pears here in England in 3 decades.
- christkv 4y agoNorthern Spain. Asturias, Galicia etc have temperate summers and winters and the heat is only an hours drive south.
- sph 4y agoNever had the chance to visit. But by sea I meant the Mediterranean one. If not for climate change, I'd just love a house anywhere on that coastline.
- ho_schi 4y agoYep. In Asturias you can be glad if you got three days in row without rain and temperatures above 20 degree. It rains a lot due to the Atlantic influence and in combination with the hight mountains? Nice when you don't like cold winters and don't like warm summers. You can do sports in short clothes in mid February but don't expect a long, warm and dry summer - it will not happen. A lot people like it but I would miss actual summer.
- christkv 4y agoYou can always rent a place in Leon with a pool and go dry out in July/August :)
- timwaagh 4y agoIt has already been very hot up north too. 38.7 for England. On top of that places like England have famously high humidity.
- christkv 4y agoCheck out northern Spain. We have cool summers and mild winters and the heat is only a one hour drive south :)
- jillesvangurp 4y agoDuring any heatwave, people with heart and blood pressure issues suffer extra. Usually heat waves result in extra deaths especially among elderly people or obese people. High temperatures combined with high humidity are particularly dangerous even before they get lethal for healthy people. Increasing frequency and severity of heat waves are definitely a noticeable thing. My parents actually lived in the South of France for a few years after their retirement. They were there in the last few weeks for a brief vacation and temperatures went well over 40 degrees in June. That used to be unusual even in the hottest month (July) and is now a yearly recurring thing. Luckily, humidity tends to be quite low in that particular area. But still, 40-45 degrees is a lot to deal with for people. I think migration will be more an indirect consequence of local economies collapsing when e.g. agriculture becomes hard/impossible due to rising temperatures. People tend to move for economic reasons. Any mass casualties in a wet bulb heat event might of course cause people to panic. But richer countries would be able to compensate with technology by e.g. desalinating water and having buildings with AC. It's poor countries that lack the means for this that are going to suffer most. Neal Stephenson has some nice perspective on this in his latest novel Termination Shock where people in e.g. Texas are dealing with temperatures that are basically not survivable without a so-called earth suit, which is a battery powered cooling solution people wear to be able to be outside in 50 degree+ Celsius heat. Those might become an actual thing people would need to own pretty soon in some places.
- NoGravitas 4y agoThe opening chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson's "The Ministry For the Future" is harrowing. It describes the effects of a heat wave with wet bulb temperatures over 35C in a small city in India. People have air conditioning, but the electrical grid isn't up to the increased demand, so the power goes out citywide. Casualties are extremely high. Where I live, in the southern US, it'll be a while before wet bulb temperatures top 35C in the hottest weeks of the summer. But they already hit those lower temperatures in the article (31C) quite often (e.g., 35C with 70% humidity), and last week a couple days were over 38C (wet bulb temperature of 33C assuming 70% humidity, though luckily so far it's usually less humid when it's that hot - around 55%). Wet bulb calculator: https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/wet-bulb https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/wet-bulb
- d--b 4y agoOk so maybe someone can enlighten me. I was under the impression that deflecting heat is something that wasn't too hard to do (flat roofs, narrow street closed windows, more shades, etc.). Am I wrong in believing that people can find some low tech inexpensive solutions to the problem of overheating?