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I'd like to know what to do with ~10 000 euros, right now. Where should I put it so it doesn't lose its value and keep a bit with inflation ? edit for a bit of
by johnchristopher 4y ago
I'd like to know what to do with ~10 000 euros, right now. Where should I put it so it doesn't lose its value and keep a bit with inflation ?
edit for a bit of context: Western Europe, renting, unlikely to be able to buy/invest into a house/flat, looking at gold ingots, not the nerve for crypto.
- steve76 4y ago
- nly 4y agoProbably best to just hold on to it. Annual inflation of 10% sounds awful, but over short periods it's not that bad.
- bombcar 4y agoIf you're not in the US (and Euros sounds European somehow) you don't have access to I bonds - which would be the safest bet. Perhaps there is something similar?
- notch656a 4y agoIt's probably not worth the trouble, but I think anyone can start a US LLC and use the tax identification of that business to buy I-bonds.
- jonas21 4y agoNo, only individuals can buy I-bonds. EDIT: that's not right. please see below.
- quesera 4y agoThis is not correct. Individuals can buy $10K/yr. Married couples can each buy $10K/yr, and you can buy the same amount for children. Also, businesses can buy $10K/yr, trusts can buy $10K/yr, and you can purchase $5K/yr with a tax refund. It would be not unusual to be able to buy $45K/yr (4-person household), and if one of the family is self-employed, $55K/yr. .... That said, don't buy lots of I bonds without first considering the advantages of TIPS!
- jonas21 4y agoAh, you're right. I had misread this chart earlier. Sorry about that. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds...
- johnchristopher 4y agoThere's something similar but it's in the .9-1.5 interest rate before 30% off of the interests when it's due. In Europe I think you can't buy bonds from another EU country but you can buy eurobonds (which seems to be different but are still emitted by EU countries).
- tmountain 4y agoThis is not financial advice, but stocks are getting cheaper every day. Invest into profitable companies that can weather the storm.
- UkrainianJew 4y agoThere's one caveat. Say a profitable company pays $1M dividends. With the industry-average 3% yield, this puts market cap at 32M. Currently you can get 3% risk-free with government bonds, and this number will go further up as the interest rate rises. Say, it goes to 6%. Now, in order to be competitive with bonds, the profitable company will need to find a way to pay 2M in dividends, or its cap will drop to 16M (i.e. the shares you bought will lose half the value).
- xiphias2 4y agoHalf year ago it would have been hard tocsay anything, but right now even the stock market has realistic price. (Btw I'm in BTC)
- JonChesterfield 4y agoBuy something you want for 20000 and watch the debt inflate away?
- nly 4y agoSo the theory here is if you know you're going to buy a $20K item in 2 years time, and you know it's going to go up in price in that time, you're probably better off borrowing the money and buying it now. The problem of course is we often don't know either of these things, and having better cashflow, or a pile of savings, now might help you weather the coming storm.
- adamsmith143 4y agoThis always seems silly to me. You are making an assumption that your Income will inflate by the same amount. But I don't know anyone getting 8% raises each year in any industry.
- throwaway12245 4y agohttps://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth Wages in the United States increased 11.67 percent in April of 2022 over the same month in the previous year. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- PheonixPharts 4y agoIt still make sense as long as the thing you're buying is something you'll eventually need to buy anyway. Say there is a 20k car you need to get to work that you should purchase within a year. Then assume, in a simplified scenario, you can either take out a 6% annual loan, or just save up the money for a year and then buy the car. Now say the car raised in cost with inflation at 10%. In one year the wait and save will mean the car new costs $22k where as if you had just taken out the loan it would have been $21.2k. Typically the loan isn't the best thing you can do because a.) inflation isn't that high and b.) there are other ways to generate revenue with your money if you have it one hand. I still see plenty of those wacky startups offering 0% interest for a year. I made a $10k, necessary, purchase for my home last year using one of those and going to save quite a bit by doing that. There's also the darker truth that if shit really hits the fan, you can always default on debt, often without real risks of your stuff being repo'd. There's no equivalent if you wait to purchase something in the future.
- neilfrndes 4y agoI recommend reading 'The Intelligent Investor'. The book describes strategies that help you navigate all kinds of markets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor. As counterintuitive as it seems, the book actually recommends buying stocks in a bear market since they are priced reasonably. Warren Buffet's famous quote comes to mind: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” The book also talks about the importance of long-term investing and discipline.
- pishpash 4y agoI don't know, people seem pretty greedy still. VIX barely at 30, PE10 near pre-pandemic highs, real yields negative out to 3-4 years, and markets are orderly. If you get weeks and weeks of 4% daily drops, real yields at 5%, and hedge funds being force liquidated like 2008, then you know real fear. Look at how far behind the Fed has gotten: https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/ https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/
- ericmay 4y ago(This is not financial advice) Ignore the "be greedy"* part of the person you are replying to (although your hesitation is kind of proving their point a bit) but follow the advice of the Intelligent Investor. When markets go up, everyone is happy to continue to invest. When they go down? People stop investing. That's precisely what you shouldn't be doing. Staying the course and continuing to invest regularly is key. When markets are sour that's when people get nervous and alter their behavior. * Want to be greedy? Start buying Coinbase stock and Bitcoin. Notice how everyone is scared right now?
- shshshd 4y agoThis is great advice that bets that the system is a going concern. If the system collapses, then the bet goes sour. Of course, if the system collapses green pieces of paper will be just as valuable as any stock certificate.
- sakopov 4y agoEquities have been decimated. The housing market is starting to look like it's next. There is nowhere to hide right now.
- swagasaurus-rex 4y agoThank god?
- xdennis 4y agoFor which part?
- _carbyau_ 4y agoFor a lot of people, both! There are lots of people with zero shares and a simple dream to own their home. This is looking hopeful for many.
- dnissley 4y agoThis is zero sum thinking -- however many people this helps, it will take just that many getting hurt in order for it to happen. Doesn't solve the root of the problem in the least, it's just a wealth transfer.
- _carbyau_ 4y agoYup. But how many of the people who might be able to afford a home if it comes down 20% will care about the others. This is what a market does. Risks are taken and the result is that some will lose out. People are not guaranteed profits. Until you are a corporation with enough influence in government it seems...
- yellowapple 4y ago> however many people this helps, it will take just that many getting hurt in order for it to happen This presumes that the number of people this helps is equal to the number of people this hurts. That's unlikely, given how wealth concentration tends to work in capitalist economies (that of the US included). But yes, we need to address the root of the problem - the root of the problem (as applied to housing) being the fact that land is treated as ownable property in the first place. That's fine and dandy, but that produces rather nasty externalities that are long overdue to be internalized - specifically, via land value taxation.
- justapassenger 4y agoNo one can predict the future. But generally time in market is more important that timing the market. Works only if you invest long term.
- ISL 4y agoIt may be helpful to think through your intended holding period. As a companion to the sibling comment recommending the Intelligent Investor (realize that index funds didn't exist when Graham wrote that), I'd keep in mind the mantra, "price is what you pay, value is what you get". If the holding-period is decades, there are good arguments in favor of stocks/index funds. Shorter-term than that, it may be difficult to provide guidance with any real certainty.
- FinanceAnon 4y agoI would just hold it - I have sold most of my index fund holdings in the past 6-9 months and been just holding cash. I don't think stocks have reached the bottom yet, so holding cash at 0% return is still better than negative returns from stocks. Right now, it's about not taking losses. I also don't see the market and economy rebounding quickly after reaching bottom - they will stay flat for a while IMHO
- ushakov 4y ago> holding cash at 0% as consumer prices are surging this no longer may be true my bet is on physical assets: guitars, gold, watches
- subsubzero 4y agoGold looks ok, I don't know about guitars but watches are plummeting just like the stockmarket.
- kingnothing 4y agoWhich watches are plummeting? I've had my eye on a couple of specifics for a while and they're still as expensive as ever.
- iancmceachern 4y agoLuxury collectable items typically suffer in a recession
- atombender 4y agoAs a counterpoint, I would quote the great John C Bogle: "Never, never get out of the market." [1] Knowing when the market has reached the bottom is not really possible. During the dot com crash in 2000-2001, investors sold all the way down to the bottom (and lots of them sold at the very bottom), and then they eventually sold all the way up to the peak, when instead they could have just held onto their shares. Rebalancing doesn't really work. That's another thing Bogle showed us. Of course, if you need the cash, that's another matter. But then you arguably shouldn't have invested it in the stock market to begin with. If you have a time horizon less than 5 years, the market is just too volatile. [1] https://youtu.be/1SLb1QJvTvg https://youtu.be/1SLb1QJvTvg
- senko 4y agoGo through the videos in Plain Bagel and Common Sense Investing (Ben Felix) YouTube channels, then read, read the sidebar in r/eupersonalfinance subreddit, and that will give you solid foundational knowledge and context for figuring out what's best for you.
- wollsmoth 4y agoI'm not sure if you can buy ibonds but those seem good for up to 10k usd. Otherwise, Either a targetdate fund, I use VFIFX which should give most benefits of a bull market while giving some cushion due to its diversification. Or, just a nice total market index fund should be a good option. It may drop a bit but it's as diversified as it gets. I use FZROX, but there are many others.
- User23 4y agoIs there some kind of inflation protected EUR denominated bond or note you can buy? If the maturity date is reasonable that might not be a bad place to park excess cash.
- motohagiography 4y agoIt's a question of what you think is going to happen. Personally, I think there are a lot of other people who are looking for ways to get out of cash and into something that is portable and loses value at a slower rate than inflation as well. It implies increasing demand for alternative assets like art and collectables, and maybe small land purchases. If there's something you know about or enjoy, it may be worth just getting into buying something, like antique motorcycles, painting and sculpture, photography, classical instruments of the non-piano variety, fancy watches, wine auctions, and other niche high end collectables. Even the top level hi-fi systems from niche makers (McIntosh, Luxman, Audio Research) with limited supply look like they could still be in demand in a decade, just like a good 1970s amp or speakers still costs more than an iPod. If these sound extravagent, the alternative at that level of investment is to buy a small crypto mining rig. Personally I would rather just take the hi-fi system or the instruments. :)
- shshshd 4y ago10k is not that much money. I know it takes a lot of effort to save, but its small change. If you have somewhere to store it, buy consumable goods. - Several hundred dollars each of tuna, prosciutto, a wheel of Parmesan, jerky, rice, flour. - If you have an oil/wood heater fill up the tank. If gas buy plenty of wool sweaters. - If you have to drive to work, get a scooter. - If you live in Czechia, or Finland, (you're not Swiss I gather) a rifle, shotgun and/or pistol. Otherwise upgrade your locks - Any left over money (if any) buy an assortment of gold, silver and what not. This might all seem doom gloom, and it is. But inflation is the least of our concerns. We're headed straight to an early 90s Soviet style collapse of our economies.
- pavlov 4y agoI can’t really agree with your prognosis, but honestly this advice is amazing because outside of the apocalyptic context it’s so fun. Got $10k? Buy a scooter, prosciutto and a wheel of Parmesan! Why shouldn’t I spend like an Italian small-town bachelor in 1975, if the world is ending anyway.
- roflyear 4y agoWhy do you think the world is ending?
- bergenty 4y agoBut why? Who wants to eat all that processed food when you can just have fresh food instead.
- 8note 4y agoIf I want a lot of tuna, I'm going dumpster diving at a sysco. Same with flour, really
- Firmwarrior 4y agoProbably not a bad idea to have a few weeks' worth of non-perishable food around just in case there's a big power outage/earthquake/whatever If this whole societal house of cards comes tumbling down, though, I think most of the people posting on HackerNews are going to be screwed (relevant: https://ext.penny-arcade.com/comic/2019/03/15/deer-diary https://ext.penny-arcade.com/comic/2019/03/15/deer-diary )
- quickthrower2 4y agoKeep it as a cash reserve IMO. Save more.
- vishnugupta 4y agoYou haven't said what your time horizon is and risk appetite. i.e., For how long do you not need this money and what % of capital are you OK to risk without which it's almost impossible to advise you. That said; during times of uncertainty cash is king so my advise is to keep it in a time deposit for 6-8 months and wait for the markets to stabilise. Based on yesterday's fed FOMC guideline they believe there's still a long way to go before they tame the inflation and they are likely to raise interest rates as high as 4%. I don't know if markets have priced 4% in yet or not. All this is to say next 8-10 months are going to be extremely choppy/volatile. Once you see signs of stability and recovery you can enter equity markets through DCA.
- jokethrowaway 4y agoMortgage to buy properties overseas you can afford. Fractional ownership of real estate. Alternatively keep cash.
- solumunus 4y agoEnergy/renewables. They are highly resistant to inflation. In my opinion they're the best bet over the next 5-10 years with current macro conditions and the huge ongoing investment into renewable infrastructure. Some good FTSE options paying nice dividends: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/EGL.L https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/EGL.L https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRIG.L https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRIG.L https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/UKW.L https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/UKW.L Uranium spot price should also be stable/grow depending on many factors: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/YCA.L https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/YCA.L Disclaimer: far from an expert.