7 ms·
Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere
- dna_polymerase 4y agoA good video about the overall topic: https://youtu.be/2ylOpbW1H-I https://youtu.be/2ylOpbW1H-I
- Azrael3000 4y agoThe topic reminded me of some fun wave tank videos like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4384y5ZRRIs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4384y5ZRRIs
- irrational 4y agoNon subscription link?
- pabs3 4y agoTurning off CSS and JavaScript lets you read the whole article. Possibly just turning on reader mode will do that too.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- bryanrasmussen 4y agothere's archive.org https://web.archive.org/web/20220611061036/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/mathematicians-may-soon-be-able-to-predict-enormous-rogue-waves https://web.archive.org/web/20220611061036/https://www.natio... but it also has the subscription popup there, a pattern I've been noticing more and more. on edit: maybe archive.org should have reading options menu somewhere, so you can say read this without JS, reader mode, etc.
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 4y agoLooks great in a text-only browser. Easy to read. No popups. Ever.
- jdeibele 4y agoUse reader mode. Worked for me in Safari on desktop, anyway.
- dheera 4y agoPaste in console to read the article document.querySelector('.Modal').remove(); document.querySelector('body').style.position=''; document.querySelector('body').style.overflowY='';
- 11235813213455 4y agoThere's a "Continue without accepting" button for me, but else I tend to do like this too (remove modal/iframe and some class/style on body)
- ryannevius 4y agoFYI and unrelated to anything else...you can simply do `document.body` to get the `body`.
- CPLX 4y agoOr hit reader view.
- kzrdude 4y agoI was wondering the other day, is there a generic "article-munging" firefox addon? Maybe you'd make rules per site how to make it readable. For example enable reader view automatically on some domains, pass some domains through 12ft.io (paywall remover) automatically and so on :)
- rashkov 4y agohttps://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
- mkbosmans 4y agoThis is a commercially available product for wave prediction on ships: https://nextocean.nl/wavepredictor.php https://nextocean.nl/wavepredictor.php Not specifically meant for rogue waves though, but rather to predict calm streaks in the waves affecting the ships motion. This is useful, e.g. when landing a helicopter or transferring cargo or persons to another ship while at sea. I can confirm that there is a lot of interesting math involved and, as noted in the article, a challenging amount of computation to do in a real-time prediction setting.
- workingon 4y agoThere are also open source tide and wave models, which is what researchers use and are fairly accurate. Not sure how much this commercial product differs, but I know the Navy etc. use the open source ones with in house adjustments.
- mkbosmans 4y agoSure, but tide and wave models generally cover a much larger area, such as whole coastal area's and over larger time spans. An example of such a model would be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN6CDaoMZ7U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN6CDaoMZ7U In the Netherlands this is used e.g. to determine when to close the storm surge barriers to protect the river delta area from flooding due to a tide+storm combination. In contrast, the Next Ocean product is meant to model the direct area around a single ship, predicting minutes in advance with a second by second granularity. They are able to reuse the raw data coming from the navigation radar that is already installed on every sea-going ship. It uses the backscatter from water ripples to determine the wave field around the ship. Interestingly, for navigational purposes exactly this part of the data is considered noise and filtered out by the on board navigation system. (https://nextocean.nl/technology.php https://nextocean.nl/technology.php) [I did some work on the software implementation for Next Ocean a couple of years back] Anyway, neither type of model has anything to do with rogue waves.
- amelius 4y agoI wonder to what extent all the mathematical modeling can be replaced by modern run-of-the-mill data science techniques.
- satori99 4y agoESA satellites were used to find out more about rogue waves, and develop statistical models for prediction, shortly after they were first accurately measured in the 1990's. The program was known as MaxWave; https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/2005pdfs/Rosenthal.pdf https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/2005pdfs/Rosenthal....
- bornfreddy 4y agoThank you, sounds interesting! Another source: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Ship-sinking_monster_waves_revealed_by_ESA_satellites https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Ship-si...
- account-5 4y agoI watched a documentary about them ages ago where the demonstrated how rogue waves can form by natural processes as different directional (terminology most likely wrong) waves cross each other. Wish I could remember enough about it to post a link.
- hnuser847 4y agoYou might be thinking of “cross sea”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_sea https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_sea
- jnurmine 4y agoCould this be used for electromagnetic (and other) waves as well? I suppose the principles are similar for a medium in which oscillations move into some direction(s) etc.
- i_no_can_eat 4y agoThe electromagnetic equations are linear, whereas the fluid dynamic ones are non-linear. This difference is crucial for this phenomenon.
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- ncmncm 4y agoSo you need a non-linear medium. Like a plasma. Those exist in nature.
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- plutonorm 4y agoI wager the same process of discovery is about to happen for UFOs. As sensors become more capable we will see more and more hard data. This will move the needle on scientific opinion and that in turn will spur research. The two phenomena may even be related - rogue waves in the fields of QFT...
- alephnan 4y agoWhy is this being downvoted? > Scientific doubts about these mysterious, giant waves were not completely dispelled until 1995, when a rogue wave hit the Draupner oil rig, a natural gas platform in the North Sea off the coast of Norway.
- plutonorm 4y agoBecause people, by and large, are simple ego driven things. The word UFO is associated with people they deem less valuable than themselves, therefore they reflexively distance themselves from it. They are not aware enough to observe their own motivations so they invent them. Spinning logic to support their emotional reactions. They are also do not read widely enough to have observed the change that is happening in the discussion of UFO phenomena.
- political12345 4y ago
- 4ggr0 4y agoNo need to insult them, UFO is a completely normal description which is also being used to describe unknown stealth-planes from foreign militaries, as an example. With better sensors, such things can be better detected and analyzed. UFO != Aliens and tinfoil hats.
- hobs 4y ago> This will move the needle on scientific opinion and that in turn will spur research This person is clearly advocating for SETI, not airplane research.
- geuis 4y agoThe worst part of trying to read articles being published by very legitimate orgs like National Geographic are the mobile website decisions they allow their product teams to make. In this case, just as I'm getting into the first few paragraphs of the paper some popup or override kicks in. Usually asking for a signup. I think it's time to stop this destructive practice of attention grabbing instead of READING THE ARTICLE.
- dheera 4y agoI've mostly stopped reading websites on mobile because of this. On desktop I have various plugins and scripts in place to get rid of most of the annoyances. It's not only subscription popups these days, there are also the goddamn GDPR popups (which don't even apply to me), Intercom popups, and ads of sorts that pop up separately from the newsletter signup. Very often within a few seconds these mobile websites have 80% of the content covered by sometimes 2 or 3 separate annoyances, at which point I generally think it's not worth dealing with them anymore and just quit.
- afterburner 4y agoFirefox mobile allows uBlock and noscript extensions.
- oblak 4y agoI refuse to do actual browsing without NoScript in place. No ads, no popups, nothing. Well, sometimes there's literally nothing, because SPA, but most of time it's just some kind of cover or body opacity set to 0. Totally worth the tradeoff on desktop and mobile. No ads, man. No fucking ads
- Wistar 4y agoI use NoScript and have for years but it sure gets exhausting to go to a site and find, in many cases, several dozen scripts that have to be "temp trusted" to get anywhere. I usually give up.
- NickChasanis 4y agoΜΙΤ also did a similar research years ago for Monster waves which is exactly the same as rogue waves (i guess there is no spesific name about it) they are really important for maritime industry, they're in theory for now, but some will claim that can actually have a sensor like that, well they dont, but its funny to waste time with sales people.
- tableofzero 4y agoThe math of rogue waves is discussed at https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/2399430 https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/2399430
- wffurr 4y agoThat page completely locked up Chrome on my Pixel 4a.
- tomrod 4y agoSame here, Vivaldi on Pixel 3a. Plus a pay wall on the OP site. It would be nice to participate in the conversation.
- bornfreddy 4y agoFwiw, it works in Firefox on Android.
- tomrod 4y agoI'm not a fan of FF for Android after they removed extensions and other UX negatives.
- bornfreddy 4y agoThe extensions are still kind-of there (there are ways you can use them), but yeah, it sucks.
- lelandfe 4y agohttps://origin.wolframcdn.com/consent/cookie-consent.php https://origin.wolframcdn.com/consent/cookie-consent.php I think it's because of a cert issue? Locks up my computer, too. I'm surprised Chrome doesn't kill the runaway code.
- gonzo41 4y agoIf you've ever double bounced someone on a trampoline it's the same effect. Constructive interference is awesome.
- abruzzi 4y agoif a physics/acoustics class the professor set up a pair of speakers 30ft apart each playing a simple sine wave. The students then marched in front of the speakers, probably 50ft away, and as you walked you could clearly hear where the constructive and destructive interference was happening.
- hugh-avherald 4y agoThe causes of rogue waves are not understood.
- okamiueru 4y agoIs there a lot more to it than "random waves, it's less and less likely for them to overlap more and more, but sometimes that too happens"?
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- tastyfreeze 4y agoWobble a glass of water just the right way and you will get rogue waves from constructive interference. The problem is predicting them in the ocean.
- ncmncm 4y agoThe problem to be understood is how you get a dozen waves constructively interfering over a long distance, not just popping up for a moment.
- snowwrestler 4y agoHighly recommend “The Wave,” by Susan Casey, a nonfiction book that covers research into open ocean rogue waves, and also surfers attempting to predict and ride the largest breaking waves.
- photochemsyn 4y agoThis article is hard to read, like most media outlets these days. Why do they run so many scripts, that call other scripts, that call other scripts...? Here's the nutshell anyway, via Firefox + NoScript + Ublock Origin and selectively blocking certain elements: > "Scientists have since figured out that unlike tsunamis, which are large waves produced by a sudden displacement of water from an event such as an earthquake or landslide, rogue waves form due to a chance combination of wave movements through the ocean." > "Two main mathematical theories have emerged to explain the wave movements that spawn rogue waves: Linear addition and nonlinear focusing. Linear addition assumes that waves travel through the ocean at different speeds, and when they overlap, they can strengthen into a rogue wave. Nonlinear focusing assumes waves travel in groups and can lend energy to one another, which sometimes spawns a rogue wave." > "One reason for the uncertainty is that rogue waves are rare. Even now, there’s a dearth of quality tracking data." For those not at sea in a boat, but walking along a coastline, the practical thing to keep in mind is that just because the ground is dry, doesn't mean a sneaker wave can't come along once an hour, so be careful and keep your eyes on the ocean.
- paulcole 4y ago> Why do they run so many scripts, that call other scripts, that call other scripts...? To answer your question with a question, how much money did you take out of your pocket and give to National Geographic in exchange for reading the article?
- shiftpgdn 4y agoWell since their website is unusable (never mind the fact that a nature magazine has turned to culture war) I won’t be giving them anything.
- selimthegrim 4y agoThe worst part is when you pay for a 12 month subscription and they cancel it after 11 and ask you to renew.
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- labrador 4y agoSurfers are very familiar with how two waves that come in different angles combine into a very high wave at the intersection. I really don't understand why monster waves seem so mysterious to scientists. I'm certain they happen all the time but no one is there to observe them except for the occasional unlucky sailor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(surfing) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(surfing)
- zionic 4y agoWell from my understanding the core problem is the statistical models used to calculate their probability were completely wrong. So we had “hard” math “proving” they were once-in-a-million-years unlikely, and that lasted until we had overwhelming observational evidence to the contrary (in this case buoy data)
- yieldcrv 4y ago> I really don't understand why monster waves seem so mysterious to scientists. Because the explanation isn’t complete. A surfer seeing something 10 seconds beforehand and reacting to it has nothing to do with why it was occurring at all.
- saberience 4y agoBecause what you're describing isn't a "rogue wave," it's just a slightly bigger wave. I'm not a surfer and am just a person who's been swimming in the sea a handful of times and I've seen this phenomenom. The rogue waves being described are incredibly rare to the point that sailors who have sailed 5000 hours have never encountered one and are sometimes talked about as though they are mythical. When rogue waves were originally discussed the heights discussed were considered to be such that they were a 1 in 10'000 year probability, and there wasn't anyone living who could provide first hand evidence, just records of ships going missing and "rumors" amongst sailors.
- ok_dad 4y agoWhen I was in the navy, the old Grizzly senior dudes would talk about rogue waves like the green flash [0]; some insisted they knew someone who saw one and others were sure that both were amongst the oldest sailor jokes in existence. It seems both phenomenons are real! [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash
- LoveGracePeace 4y agoIt caused me to take a bad fall at sea one time, rogue waves do happen and they are horrific.
- stereocodes 4y ago
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- nimish 4y agoMathematics has known about solitons since 1844. I thought it was well known that rogue waves are Peregrine solitons? Few other models can explain their observed behavior as well.
- m3047 4y agoOwned a 40 foot sailboat with 5+ feet of freeboard. Waves refract going around islands (lee side has weird waves even if less wind), through currents and over shoaling. The Strait of Juan de Fuca is sometimes referred to as Juan he Fuck You because of the "haystacks". You see them: "oh there was a haystack! did you see it?" Ran into one once; two feet of green water rolled across the deck. And then it was gone.
- bombela 4y agoFirefox on Android. Page freezes at load and I cannot scroll.
- FunnyBadger 4y agoYep. The "traditional view" is basically a linear model view. The new understand involves nonlinear models.
- euroderf 4y agoIn the Baltic (to take an example), I would expect that altho it is a large sea, its relatively small size (compared to the open sea) and its shallowness would not provide the conditions for the formation of rogue waves.