> This is true if the market has it's normal up and down swings. However it's entirely plausible that we no longer live in such an environment. How is it plaus

> This is true if the market has it's normal up and down swings. However it's entirely plausible that we no longer live in such an environment. How is it plausible? I would say given the historical data, it is extremely unlikely. Not impossible, but near negligible probability. People saying, “it’s different this time,” right before a economic crash is a cliche for a reason. I suspect that you could use the frequency of utterances to predict impending recessions / asset class corrections with extremely high accuracy.