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Another: https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/no-one-is-talking-about-this?s=w https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/no-one-is-talking-about... Few seem to want

Another: https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/no-one-is-talking-about-this?s=w https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/p/no-one-is-talking-about... Few seem to want to talk about this, they want to talk about how coming shortages will best be solved by giving them power or at the least listening to their advice. For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Mostly I've seen admonitions to not try making baby food at home, which is incredibly useless for people trying to feed kids. I'm seeing fields choked with weeds, because the Crop Production company that leases the land decided they're doing half a "no till" planting this year without herbicide; because that'll get them their crop failure insurance payment. I suspect they will bail on some of next year's leases or at least lower rates because of reduced fertility, too. "Fertilizer export restrictions" started happening last fall; this was all visible writing on the wall well before Ukraine got invaded. It sounds "conspiracy theorist" to say there's a plan in operation; but it's hard to say that there is not.

gatlin 4y ago
I would be interested in reading more of what you are reading.
Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
The fertilizer problems started with sanctions on Belarus which is 20% of the worlds potash as in potassium market, and got dire due to China, the US and Europe all messing up their natural gas markets. That's used to supply hydrogen atoms for the first step of nitrogen fertilizer, the most used by weight, in the Haber process which makes ammonia (NH3) using nitrogen from the air. A lot of entities, not just "Crop Production companies" are doing suboptimal things for the food supply due to the fertilizer crisis. As for stores not providing baby formula recipes, I'd imagine they're worried about liability, and there are of course many other sources for them. Really, due to the Federal government's WIC program which is half the market, its import restrictions, and messed up FDA regulation it should be on them. I say messed up because the FDA demonstrably wasn't serious about dealing with the Abbott Labs plant problem or getting it fixed quickly based on the timeline starting with the whistle blower, while they make it very hard to get into the business. Or the USDA's problem due to their policy of forcing states to grant a WIC monopoly to one formula manufacturer resulted in three companies having almost all the total US market with Abbott having the largest share, at the same time US prices being double those of Europe. Which isn't as strict about food safety but still seems to do OK. A serious country would have done something to mitigate the shortage after they closed down Abbot's huge factory before there were bare shelves for months and it became a political problem in an election year.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Much of the regulations in the USA are mainly now used to keep the main businesses in those markets safe from competitors.
  - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
    I'd strip the "now" from your statement, this goes back at least to the 1887 Interstate Commerce Commission and many subsidy attempts which generally didn't produce economically viable railways or steamship lines. Regulatory capture is a universal problem as long as a government is involved in an economy, and it has to be if for no other reason than to collect taxes.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    There's a term for this: Crony Capitalism
    - toiletfuneral 4y ago
      [dead]
    - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
      And before that, fascism Italian style, or national syndicalism as I see Wikipedia calls it. Hard to say we in the US aren't already there in many sectors where big companies work hand in glove with the Federal government such as much of the "surveillance state." Which the companies don't have much choice in acquiescing to unless their leaders want to end up in Federal prison like Qwest's Joseph Nacchio. Going back to farming, the Federal government assumed near total control over a great of it in the New Deal, down to how much you could charge for selling a kosher chicken (A.L.A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States "the surname Schechter means "slaughter" in Yiddish, and specifically refers to a ritual slaughterer") and the two have been inextricably linked since then. And until about now things have been a lot better, for before WWII at the same time food production was limited by diktat and there were newsreels of it being destroyed, the USDA also believed about a quarter of the nation was malnourished which was confirmed in the WWII draft. Which I've read was major factor in establishing the school lunch program.
0daystock 4y ago
> There are rumors of diesel shortages and urea shortages. In order to operate a diesel engine on the road you have to use DEF fluid which is urea. This isn't strictly true, you can remove the DEF emissions control system from most trucks for a small price and this even yields a small performance gain. In my state, this is quite common as there is no emissions testing. The emphasis on diesel/DEF shortages is greatly exaggerated and somewhat misguided, I think.
- SoftTalker 4y ago
  You can do a "DEF delete," but if you are caught you will be paying some major fines for EPA violations that will quickly exceed the value of the truck. Do the DOT inspections at weigh stations not check for this? I know that older trucks are grandfathered as they never had it; generally vehicles are required to have all the original emissions controls intact. You also will need to know how to reflash the engine computers, which will not be happy if expected emissions equipment is simply removed.
  - josephcsible 4y ago
    I think the point is that if there's a urea shortage, good governments would waive the DEF requirement until it ends, rather than effectively saying "sorry, it's illegal for you to drive that truck at any price".
    - SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
      > I think the point is that if there's a urea shortage, good governments would waive the DEF requirement until it ends, Automotive EE here, this will ABSOLUTELY NOT happen.
      - josephcsible 4y ago
        Oh, I have no delusions that it will happen. I also have no delusions that our government is good.
- 4y ago
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
> For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Mostly I've seen admonitions to not try making baby food at home, which is incredibly useless for people trying to feed kids. Thanks for pointing this out. It's like we've forgotten how to function as humans in some respect. Baby formula isn't some magical combination of ingredients. And I get it, authorities are wary to recommend recipes because of the risk of people fucking it up. But when people are out of options they'll likely make worse decisions, like watering down formula.
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  Baby formula isn't some magical combination of ingredients. Some of it is for those with metabolic problems. Abbott makes one type which very recently the government has taken action about, but each recipient has be vetted to get it, I believe it's from non-FDA regulated production in Europe.
  - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
    I mean, that's fine, but how many babies need that kind of formula? And parents with babies that do need that kind of formula are probably well aware of that. If you Google "how to make homemade baby formula", basically every article is how experts strongly recommend against it. And there are articles like "Why following TikTok influencers' baby formula recipes is a terrible idea." No shit following TikTok baby formula recipes is a horrible idea. But if a detailed recipe for age-appropriate "standard" baby formula were published by experts, my guess is that it wouldn't contain fairy dust. I can commiserate somewhat with these "experts", though, because this is a fairly common case where what is good advice for an individual can be bad advice for the masses. That is, if you're a reasonably intelligent person, it's probably not that hard to make your own baby formula. But if, say, at least 20% of people are not reasonably intelligent, experts will err on the side of "lowest common denominator" advice.
    - IncRnd 4y ago
      Exactly, babies have been eating for an extremely long time, far longer than boxes and bottles have been around and filled with the "only way to feed the babies".
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
It's hard to take any food shortage articles seriously when we feed >40% of the calories we grow to cattle alone. Sure, more people might go hungry because we do not allocate food well. But we are so far from actually running out of calories that the idea is ridiculous.
- dsrees 4y ago
  40% of corn grown goes to produce ethanol. [1] The silage by product is then sent to feed cattle. [1] https://civileats.com/2022/02/14/how-corn-ethanol-for-biofuel-fueled-climate-change/ https://civileats.com/2022/02/14/how-corn-ethanol-for-biofue...
- redisman 4y ago
  Sure but thinking that the American people don’t implode if the stores are empty and you’re sent a bag of corn every month for your calories is also not realistic.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
    You can grow other calories on the land you're growing corn for ethenol and livestock feed.
    - pixl97 4y ago
      With the massive efficiency of corn its actually kinda hard to do that to the level you expect. Corn is very effective at turning space into starch.
      - imtringued 4y ago
        What massive efficiency? You're feeding it to animals. 80% of the calories are immediately pooped out.
        onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
SkyPuncher 4y ago
> For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Well, the reality is there isn't a good one. If there was, this issues wouldn't be so serious. Infant formula is truly a modern marvel - an accurate enough representation of breast milk. It lacks certain things (like antibodies), but can absolutely provide an infant correct nutrition. Too put things in perspective, toddler formula - which is very, very similar is considered a dangerous substitute since it does not contain the exact correct ratios and can lead to health issues. To answer you question, the media does not have a recommendation because there simply isn't a good, safe recommendation.

gatlin 4y ago

I would be interested in reading more of what you are reading.

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago

The fertilizer problems started with sanctions on Belarus which is 20% of the worlds potash as in potassium market, and got dire due to China, the US and Europe all messing up their natural gas markets. That's used to supply hydrogen atoms for the first step of nitrogen fertilizer, the most used by weight, in the Haber process which makes ammonia (NH3) using nitrogen from the air. A lot of entities, not just "Crop Production companies" are doing suboptimal things for the food supply due to the fertilizer crisis. As for stores not providing baby formula recipes, I'd imagine they're worried about liability, and there are of course many other sources for them. Really, due to the Federal government's WIC program which is half the market, its import restrictions, and messed up FDA regulation it should be on them. I say messed up because the FDA demonstrably wasn't serious about dealing with the Abbott Labs plant problem or getting it fixed quickly based on the timeline starting with the whistle blower, while they make it very hard to get into the business. Or the USDA's problem due to their policy of forcing states to grant a WIC monopoly to one formula manufacturer resulted in three companies having almost all the total US market with Abbott having the largest share, at the same time US prices being double those of Europe. Which isn't as strict about food safety but still seems to do OK. A serious country would have done something to mitigate the shortage after they closed down Abbot's huge factory before there were bare shelves for months and it became a political problem in an election year.

bombcar 4y ago
Much of the regulations in the USA are mainly now used to keep the main businesses in those markets safe from competitors.
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  I'd strip the "now" from your statement, this goes back at least to the 1887 Interstate Commerce Commission and many subsidy attempts which generally didn't produce economically viable railways or steamship lines. Regulatory capture is a universal problem as long as a government is involved in an economy, and it has to be if for no other reason than to collect taxes.
- cpursley 4y ago
  There's a term for this: Crony Capitalism
  - toiletfuneral 4y ago
    [dead]
  - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
    And before that, fascism Italian style, or national syndicalism as I see Wikipedia calls it. Hard to say we in the US aren't already there in many sectors where big companies work hand in glove with the Federal government such as much of the "surveillance state." Which the companies don't have much choice in acquiescing to unless their leaders want to end up in Federal prison like Qwest's Joseph Nacchio. Going back to farming, the Federal government assumed near total control over a great of it in the New Deal, down to how much you could charge for selling a kosher chicken (A.L.A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States "the surname Schechter means "slaughter" in Yiddish, and specifically refers to a ritual slaughterer") and the two have been inextricably linked since then. And until about now things have been a lot better, for before WWII at the same time food production was limited by diktat and there were newsreels of it being destroyed, the USDA also believed about a quarter of the nation was malnourished which was confirmed in the WWII draft. Which I've read was major factor in establishing the school lunch program.

0daystock 4y ago

> There are rumors of diesel shortages and urea shortages. In order to operate a diesel engine on the road you have to use DEF fluid which is urea. This isn't strictly true, you can remove the DEF emissions control system from most trucks for a small price and this even yields a small performance gain. In my state, this is quite common as there is no emissions testing. The emphasis on diesel/DEF shortages is greatly exaggerated and somewhat misguided, I think.

SoftTalker 4y ago
You can do a "DEF delete," but if you are caught you will be paying some major fines for EPA violations that will quickly exceed the value of the truck. Do the DOT inspections at weigh stations not check for this? I know that older trucks are grandfathered as they never had it; generally vehicles are required to have all the original emissions controls intact. You also will need to know how to reflash the engine computers, which will not be happy if expected emissions equipment is simply removed.
- josephcsible 4y ago
  I think the point is that if there's a urea shortage, good governments would waive the DEF requirement until it ends, rather than effectively saying "sorry, it's illegal for you to drive that truck at any price".
  - SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
    > I think the point is that if there's a urea shortage, good governments would waive the DEF requirement until it ends, Automotive EE here, this will ABSOLUTELY NOT happen.
    - josephcsible 4y ago
      Oh, I have no delusions that it will happen. I also have no delusions that our government is good.
4y ago

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

> For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Mostly I've seen admonitions to not try making baby food at home, which is incredibly useless for people trying to feed kids. Thanks for pointing this out. It's like we've forgotten how to function as humans in some respect. Baby formula isn't some magical combination of ingredients. And I get it, authorities are wary to recommend recipes because of the risk of people fucking it up. But when people are out of options they'll likely make worse decisions, like watering down formula.

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
Baby formula isn't some magical combination of ingredients. Some of it is for those with metabolic problems. Abbott makes one type which very recently the government has taken action about, but each recipient has be vetted to get it, I believe it's from non-FDA regulated production in Europe.
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  I mean, that's fine, but how many babies need that kind of formula? And parents with babies that do need that kind of formula are probably well aware of that. If you Google "how to make homemade baby formula", basically every article is how experts strongly recommend against it. And there are articles like "Why following TikTok influencers' baby formula recipes is a terrible idea." No shit following TikTok baby formula recipes is a horrible idea. But if a detailed recipe for age-appropriate "standard" baby formula were published by experts, my guess is that it wouldn't contain fairy dust. I can commiserate somewhat with these "experts", though, because this is a fairly common case where what is good advice for an individual can be bad advice for the masses. That is, if you're a reasonably intelligent person, it's probably not that hard to make your own baby formula. But if, say, at least 20% of people are not reasonably intelligent, experts will err on the side of "lowest common denominator" advice.
  - IncRnd 4y ago
    Exactly, babies have been eating for an extremely long time, far longer than boxes and bottles have been around and filled with the "only way to feed the babies".

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

It's hard to take any food shortage articles seriously when we feed >40% of the calories we grow to cattle alone. Sure, more people might go hungry because we do not allocate food well. But we are so far from actually running out of calories that the idea is ridiculous.

dsrees 4y ago
40% of corn grown goes to produce ethanol. [1] The silage by product is then sent to feed cattle. [1] https://civileats.com/2022/02/14/how-corn-ethanol-for-biofuel-fueled-climate-change/ https://civileats.com/2022/02/14/how-corn-ethanol-for-biofue...
redisman 4y ago
Sure but thinking that the American people don’t implode if the stores are empty and you’re sent a bag of corn every month for your calories is also not realistic.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  You can grow other calories on the land you're growing corn for ethenol and livestock feed.
  - pixl97 4y ago
    With the massive efficiency of corn its actually kinda hard to do that to the level you expect. Corn is very effective at turning space into starch.
    - imtringued 4y ago
      What massive efficiency? You're feeding it to animals. 80% of the calories are immediately pooped out.
      - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

SkyPuncher 4y ago

> For all the "Baby formula shortage" media coverage, how many stories have included a recipe for alternatives to commercial formula? Well, the reality is there isn't a good one. If there was, this issues wouldn't be so serious. Infant formula is truly a modern marvel - an accurate enough representation of breast milk. It lacks certain things (like antibodies), but can absolutely provide an infant correct nutrition. Too put things in perspective, toddler formula - which is very, very similar is considered a dangerous substitute since it does not contain the exact correct ratios and can lead to health issues. To answer you question, the media does not have a recommendation because there simply isn't a good, safe recommendation.