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Persist or let it go: a study of entrepreneurial decision making
- LoveGracePeace 4y agoWhat aren't always rational, studies or entreprenenurs?
- togaen 4y agoThat seems… obvious.
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- evrydayhustling 4y ago
- irthomasthomas 4y ago"family values" is a dog whistle for Christian values. But you're still right.
- cato_the_elder 4y agoNo. Family values are much more universally accepted than Christianity. Also, Christianity isn't a taboo, so no one needs to "dog whistle" anything about it.
- throw__away7391 4y ago"Family Values" is most certainly a dog whistle for Christianity, particularly when Christians are attempting to smuggle religiously motivated ideas into public policy and especially during the George W Bush era. Variations on this phrase are incorporated into the names of many, many evangelical political organizations and publications.
- cato_the_elder 4y agoIt is true that almost all Christians are proponents of family values. But it's in no way exclusive to them. For example, a Muslim would probably support very similar ideas.
- throw__away7391 4y agoNo, that's wrong. The phrase "family values" is very strongly tied to Evangelical Conservative politics, and particularly to the neocons who waged a literal war on Muslims soon after coming to power. You've got a bible verse as your bio so I think I can hazard a guess as to your position. The Google Ngram graph on this phrase is interesting: https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=family+values&year_start=1800&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=3&direct_url=t1%3B%2Cfamily%20values%3B%2Cc0 https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=family+values&...
- cato_the_elder 4y ago> particularly to the neocons who waged a literal war on Muslims soon after coming to power. I don't have a lot of sympathy with neocons, but I'm pretty sure their attacks on Muslims weren't because they thought Muslims were destroying family values or something. > You've got a bible verse as your bio so I think I can hazard a guess as to your position. :-) Yes, but I'm not a Christian. The Google Ngram is certainly interesting. But my counter argument is that before the 60s, family values were so ingrained in society that they weren't subject to much debate.
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- Jensson 4y ago> Contrary to expectations, we find that self-proclaimed highly rational entrepreneurs do not (always) behave rationally Not sure what they thought, did they expect that every entrepreneur who says they are highly rational actually are highly rational?
- robonerd 4y agoThe best anybody can aspire to is being rational some of the time; no human is rational all of the time. Anybody who thinks they're rational all the time is only demonstrating just how irrational they are, by believing something so irrational about themselves.
- jeffchuber 4y agonow do humanity
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- katzgrau 4y agoWell, as an entrepreneur who is 10 years into a venture where most of my mentors thought my time was better spent on whatever was hot at the time (big data?) I can say that the perception of rationality is, like all things really, very subjective. I see something and they don't. I think I'm right and they think they're right. But I see what I see, and I want to go for it. I might end up being wrong, but ultimately the journey to that particular place is one of the sincerest forms of self expression I've found, and I can't do that as easily if I too heavily depend on the eyes of others.
- Pearse 4y agoI really appreciate this comment, thanks for sharing
- mathgladiator 4y ago> ultimately the journey to that particular place is one of the sincerest forms of self expression I've found This hits me hard, and thank you for expressing it. I'm currently building a strange SaaS which brings me joy. I have no customers and a handful of people that have tried it out. I promote it here on HN every chance I get as I am shameless. It's called Adama ( https://www.adama-platform.com/ https://www.adama-platform.com/ ) and it started as a way to build online board games. Now, I have no idea how to market it, and I'm still developing it on variety of fronts. My focus is super diluted and chaotic, and I try to reign it only to discover more shiny things. The true beauty of life is that there no right way to experience it. When viewed through the lens of an artist, much is subjective. Who is to say my idea is bad? Well, yeah, it is full of silliness, but that's the fun of it. Perhaps, I am wasting my life, but what then is the point of life? I've come to believe that faith (which I sorely lack in a spiritual sense) is an important part of being human. I have faith that Adama is a great way for me to spend my time, and I'm currently trying to embrace the creative side of life.
- Folcon 4y agoHey, it looks like you're trying to do something cool and different. Awesome. May I ask that you check out some of these dead links that may be giving people a bad impression of you? On here, [0], the link to [1] is dead. Same with this[2], here[3]. There may be others. Edit: Now that I've had a chance to read a bit about what you're doing, I've got to ask, you talk about boardgames, have you built a really straightforward boardgame prototype? Like one I could find online and understand as a complete project, preferably as an example or starter template for a new user? It could be for a trivial boardgame, but an actual boardgame, so settlers of catan for example? -[0]: https://www.adama-platform.com/pricing.html https://www.adama-platform.com/pricing.html -[1]: https://www.adama-platform.com/2022/02/25/early-access-launch-and-confession.html https://www.adama-platform.com/2022/02/25/early-access-launc... -[2]: https://book.adama-platform.com/ https://book.adama-platform.com/ -[3]: https://book.adama-platform.com/reference/history.html https://book.adama-platform.com/reference/history.html
- friedman23 4y agoParadoxically, you can't be a human and be rational and consider yourself to be rational. You need to work within the limits of the human mind and body. Depending on the circumstances of your body your bias, impulses, and ability to rationalize things changes completely.
- Jensson 4y agoA rational interpretation of the question "are you rational?" is if you are rational relative to other humans, not that you are a theoretically perfect rational being. Same thing as how "are you tall?" means relative to humans, if you answer "I'm not tall, a skyscraper is tall! No human is tall!" then you didn't understand the question.
- robonerd 4y ago> A rational interpretation of the question "are you rational?" is if you are rational relative to other humans, not that you are a theoretically perfect rational being. Experience with people who tout their own rationality has shown me that such people rarely recognize the limits of their rationality. More often than not, they think themselves some sort of rational demigod gracing the irrational masses with their very presence.
- Jensson 4y agoYes, which is why you shouldn't trust what people say about themselves, and why sometimes you shouldn't say things that are true about yourself since people will take it the wrong way. You find many smart people not calling themselves smart, because many people think that smart people shouldn't call themselves smart, so the smart thing to do is to say that you just were lucky or worked hard etc, because that is what people want to hear. Meta communication like that makes it really hard to gather much information from what people say though, but there is still some informational value in it. If you find some statistical correlation between people saying they have attribute X and what they do otherwise, then that means something. For example, people who are good at X tend to say that they are good at X. Not everyone who is good at X will say it, and some who are bad at X will say they are good anyway, but it still adds some bits of information you can use.
- dgfitz 4y agoThis just in: studies show that people who see themselves as rational, aren’t always rational.
- hk__2 4y agoWe can make a generator: "Study shows that X who see themselves as Y, aren’t always Y."
- BurningFrog 4y ago"Studies show entrepreneurs are people" was my first thought :)
- colechristensen 4y agoWhat? This seems to be biased towards success, you're only a rational entrepreneur if you end up being successful, and undertaking a venture without a positive expected value is irrational. Something like telling a person that went to Las Vegas, did some gambling, had a good time, and lost money that they're irrational and enjoyed their vacation wrong.
- ttul 4y agoBeing an entrepreneur means watching your college friends be more successful than you in all the ways society expects us to be successful… likely for a very long time. Your parents will ask why you haven’t yet bought a house or why you have no retirement savings. Partners will question if you’ll ever be rich despite all the sacrifices. If the process of entrepreneurism wasn’t so deeply satisfying to those of us who need to pursue it, nobody would ever do this. It doesn’t pencil mathematically.
- lkrubner 4y agoI apologize if this counts as a shameless plug, but entrepreneurs who are self-destructive has been my main theme for several years now. I wrote a fairly popular book about one particular case, which I think illustrates the overall problem. "How To Destroy A Tech Startup In Three Easy Steps" is a detailed look at how a particular entrepreneur, with a great idea, managed to sabotage themselves: https://www.amazon.com/Destroy-Tech-Startup-Easy-Steps/dp/0998997617/ https://www.amazon.com/Destroy-Tech-Startup-Easy-Steps/dp/09...
- daenz 4y agoIf you give us an example from your writing that relates to the thread topic, it will seem less of a plug and build more good will :)
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- cato_the_elder 4y agoDescartes put it well: "Good sense is, of all things among men, the most equally distributed; for every one thinks himself so abundantly provided with it, that those even who are the most difficult to satisfy in everything else, do not usually desire a larger measure of this quality than they already possess." [1] Entrepreneurs are no exception. However, I don't think entrepreneurs have a reputation of being infallibly rational. Scientists are much closer to having that kind of status, so I think studying their irrationality would be more interesting. [1]: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1013067-good-sense-is-of-all-things-among-men-the-most https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1013067-good-sense-is-of-al...
- atty 4y agoI don’t think the general public sees entrepreneurs as inherently rational, but many entrepreneurs, especially Silicon Valley types, certainly think that of themselves. Edit: typo
- montefischer 4y agoAgreed. The American cultural conception of entrepreneurship includes delusion, failure, unethical behavior (recent TV series come to mind). Scientists and possibly medical professionals are still intuitively treated as rational and correct. Just think about how people shorting consensus medical or scientific opinion are treated in popular media / society compared to those criticizing entrepreneurs and capitalists.
- whatshisface 4y agoI think you got your use of the words criticizing and shorting swapped around. :-) (not that I wouldn't love to be able to short studies that I think will be understood in the fullness of time to be flawed.)
- montefischer 4y agoI like to use short metaphorically, outside of financial contexts. For example, the decision to own guns is short civilization, as others have put it. You may be interested in prediction markets for study replication, where you can a real (financial) short position against bad studies: https://fantasticanachronism.com/2021/11/18/how-i-made-10k-predicting-which-papers-will-replicate/ https://fantasticanachronism.com/2021/11/18/how-i-made-10k-p...
- spamizbad 4y agoSurprised entrepreneurs prize this so much. I feel like being irrational is a necessary ingredient to starting a successful business. The rational don’t bother trying or give up too quickly.
- imwillofficial 4y agoStudy also shows grass is green and the sky is blue, news at 11
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- jokoon 4y agoI did a six months entrepreneurship training, it's all delusional marketing and advertising. https://i.redd.it/zh9yzqmdehc31.jpg https://i.redd.it/zh9yzqmdehc31.jpg Turning customers into fanatics, the marketing funnel, a brand into religion, this is entrepreneur 101.
- kodah 4y agoPersonally, in my thirties, I don't believe most people are rational in any consistent way. I think people that are perceived as rational tend to have good filtering and pushback mechanisms available to them, which also entails cultivating a friend-group that will provide those things without judgement and elevate you for the outcomes rather than the minutiae in between.
- readme 4y agoalso in my thirties and i am convinced humans are vulnerable more than most people are willing to admit i believe given the right circumstances a healthy adult could be made to believe complete lies where have I seen this in history....
- WJW 4y agoPretty much everywhere in history?
- Enginerrrd 4y agoPretty much everywhere IN THE PRESENT. When reading this statement, people will immediately come to mind with several canonical examples. What's funny is, those examples will almost invariably be targeted at the political opposition in a way that's almost diametrically opposed. People, throughout history and the present, share some things in common: a strong affinity for contempt over other groups of people leading them to all manner of false belief and irrationality, and a certainty over their own correctness. And in saying that... Here I am, expressing contempt over some poorly defined group of people with some hint of a suggestion that I am immune.
- voxl 4y agoFunny, also in my thirties, I view almost-everyone as almost-always rational. The issue is instead in the analysis, which leaves out externalities or associated risks that the "specification of rationality" doesn't take into account. I've really never encountered a person who made an irrational decision, just one where I didn't fully understand the total calculus going on in their head.
- nanidin 4y agoI captured this on my whiteboard as “Be open minded to the fact that you’re not always open minded.”
- nanidin 4y agoOr also, from George Bernard Shaw, "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man." Rational & reasonable are relative.
- mistercheph 4y agoGroup B believes it has evidence that Group A might be irrational, publishes findings in magazine.
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- otikik 4y agoI would bet that applies to most humans (who see themselves as rational)
- wardedVibe 4y agoI mean, the whole point of entrepreneurship is to focus on the upside and have protection from the personal risk of ruin, so it's not surprising that it would distort their thinking generally. > entrepreneurs create a decision rule comprising a limited set of factors (e.g., the potential for growth) and selectively focus on these factors while paying less attention to and/or ignoring others (e.g., risk of going into default, period of underperformance).
- md224 4y agoI really dislike the concept of "rationality", or at the very least the way it gets used. I'm sure there are cases where everyone would agree that someone is behaving irrationally, but a lot of the time the label of "irrational" hides assumptions about value and tolerance for risk. If an entrepreneur decides to prioritize certain factors over others, who's to say that's "irrational"? Is there an objectively correct way to run a business? I just find the whole idea so tiresome.
- whatshisface 4y agoThere are objective standards for rationality, although we rarely have enough information to evaluate other people according to them. One example of an objective standard is whether or not all of the things you say have a fifty-fifty chance of happening, taken together, do indeed happen half the time. Another objective standard is whether or not you change your stated goals after the fact to make yourself feel more successful. There are no end of objectively irrational behaviors, although we rarely have enough insight into other people's lives to identify them, or the clarity of mind, accuracy of memory and commitment to reflection to see them in ourselves.
- nicoburns 4y agoI don't think it's as objective as you think. There are many circumstances where someone might make a completely rational decision while still being utterly wrong, because they didn't have the information available to them to make a better decision.
- Beldin 4y agoIt depends on the definition of "rational". A serviceable but vacuous definition is "the procedure by which a decision is reached." Note that it is vacuous in that it imposes no constraints (not even repeatability/consistency), so anything that results in a decision fits the definition. It is serviceable because if you want a better definition, you have to argue deviations/changes - eg consistency. You'll find it to be a choice, not a requirement. Eg: Batman's Joker behaves according to his rules. The end result may be unpredictable, but that doesn't mean the decision process doesn't follow his rules.
- readme 4y agoin some notable cases entrepreneurs who seem themselves as rational are almost never rational
- kadenwolff 4y agoWater is wet
- kosyblysk666 4y agohumans are irrational beings by default.
- FredPret 4y agoWater wet, more at 7
- rilezg 4y agoEveryone is rational based on their understanding of the world, but no one has perfect understanding of everything.
- n_time 4y agoRationality is a tool not a state of being.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Geee 4y agoIt's quite interesting that economy and economic progress doesn't require rationality, i.e intelligence. Just like in evolution, randomness, copying of successful strategies and survival of the fittest are needed for economic progress. Whatever ends up happening is always post-rational, because everything that is rational survives.
- photochemsyn 4y agoRational actor theory is one of those 'fundamentals of modern neoclassical economics' things that makes the whole discipline look patently ridiculous. Here's a good discussion of the issue, and some remedies: https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/158361 https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/158361 > "Historians can remedy this. They can enrich economic analyses by tracing the rise and fall of particular emotions and emotional norms, for many feelings have prompted capitalist behavior and should be studied historically. We need a social history of selfishness—the feeling presumed to be central to market behavior. The word selfish entered the English language only in the 1640; self-interest joined it in 1649. That new words were created suggests that new behaviors—as well as concerns about them—developed as markets expanded."
- giantg2 4y agoAre there any studies showing any group of professionals is rational? We even end up labeling the most rational people as having some sort of disorder...
- marcodiego 4y agoDunning Krugger effect?
- nicholast 4y agoYou can't evaluate rationality in context of small number of samples of a fat tailed distribution with wide uncertainty bands. Besides, startups can be a kind of success even in failure based on opportunities that arise as a result.
- SnowHill9902 4y agoHow do you define rational?
- MaysonL 4y agoOne of my favorite t-shirts has the motto: "I'm not delusional. I'm an entrepreneur." From the gapingvoid group. https://www.gapingvoid.com/?s=I%27m+not+delusional https://www.gapingvoid.com/?s=I%27m+not+delusional
- dang 4y agoURL changed from https://oa.mg/blog/persist-or-give-up/ https://oa.mg/blog/persist-or-give-up/, which points to this. I've also changed the title in an attempt to avoid the shallow-generic style of comment which this thread has unfortunately filled up with. (Submitted title was "Study shows entrepreneurs who see themselves as rational, aren’t always rational".) The paper's own title isn't likely to lead to any better discussion, since we all know the answer already, or assume we do.
- aaaaaaaaata 4y ago> since we all know the answer already, or assume we do Heh. Have you ever decided to (co?)found any startups, dang?
- dang 4y agoYes, but my comment was coming from experience with title triggers, not experience with startups.
- aaaaaaaaata 4y agoThis was a curiosity question, not any insinuation! Have you written about it anywhere? I'd love to read.
- calltrak 4y ago