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Like inflation, it's self-fulfilling. Perception is reality. Some people who strongly influence public perception - to whom we seem to have ceded our power to t

Like inflation, it's self-fulfilling. Perception is reality. Some people who strongly influence public perception - to whom we seem to have ceded our power to think critically and independently - who look for social disruption, want it. If businesses pull in their horns, stop supporting innovation, the economic result is easy to predict.

guerrilla 4y ago
This comment seems crazy given that we just had COVID-19, a war causing a massive energy crisis and multiple systemic commodities problems and then climate change... Also you're assuming interest rate hikes have no effect? I have no idea how you could think what's coming isn't entirely material... How can you just ignore all that?
- liuliu 4y ago
  We had COVID-19 for 2 years. The U.S. is surging back with unique challenge of spending transition from goods back to services. It is a challenge. "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Interest rate hike certainly has impact, but that is the Fed to decide. Remember, Trump asked Fed to not raise rate before and JPow kowtowed to that just fine. China's shutdown is a Black Swan. The market apparently haven't digested that yet (APPL "only" down 20% YTD).
  - wolverine876 4y ago
    > "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Also a bad idea for climate change, which is becoming very expensive.
    - liuliu 4y ago
      Agreed. But unfortunately, nobody takes climate change (and related cost) seriously. You need a strong Federal government to enforce that cost structure (and hopefully globally, if strong enough), and the United States won't have a strong Federal government for decades to come.
      - amluto 4y ago
        We are potentially quite close to the point where small modular reactors could be commercially viable. I can easily imagine $10-20bn, carefully spent, accelerating the process. Imagine, for example, the military placing an order for a few SMRs from each of the credible startups in the space. The reactors themselves would surely be overpriced and of dubious value, but it might substantially accelerate development and production. In a situation where energy supplies are limited, the availability of extra (carbon-free!) electricity could help considerably.
      - wolverine876 4y ago
        A priori, let's quit! If people spent as much time talking about and acting on climate change as they do about how hopeless it is - a very convenient public belief for the greenhouse gas producers, even better than FUD! - we'd have fixed it. Get off your rump.
  - echelon 4y ago
    > China's shutdown is a Black Swan. How bad will this be? Is China waiting to renegotiate tariffs?
username_my1 4y ago
“Stop supporting innovation” Are we talking about groceries delivery in under 15 minutes or crypto bla bla bla Most recent VC backed starups are a big Bonze scheme that lead to poor economical output Just look at the last spacs how poorly they performed Hard tech is rare, and it’s not even interesting for vc So innovation and vc startups really don’t have anything to do with each other
liuliu 4y ago
That's why it is extremely frustrating to watch this unfold. The easiest way to kill inflation is to kill growth. But that won't help people in need anyway. An empty shelf of baby formulas are not a sign of "economy is too hot". It is a sign of supply issue.
- ordu 4y ago
  > An empty shelf of baby formulas Can I ask you why you've chosen this particular example? It is not about I agree with you, or I'm going to contradict in a some way, it is completely unrelated question. A complete off-topic.
  - liuliu 4y ago
    The cause of this round is not some sudden bubble burst. Fed raise rates because they want to signal that they are serious about taming the inflation. That caused sharp sentiment change in capital market. The cause of this round of inflation can be many things, we've been in low-interest environment for 10+ years with occasional QEs. It hasn't inflated the economy as much as we hoped for that 10+ years. It is lazy thinking to attribute back to QE for this round of inflation.
  - shortstuffsushi 4y ago
    I believe the example was likely chosen due to the recent controversial bill in congress [0]. However, I think the choice of baby formula shows that some "core" needs in the economy are missing as well, and that the tech bubble struggling. 0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/house-passes-fda-baby-formula-bill-but-senate-fate-is-uncertain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/house-pas... (Picked at random from a search for "baby formula bill")
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      The baby formula shortage is specifically related to one company’s production being shut down, supposedly due to their negligence in maintaining quality in conjunction with policies specific to baby formula that prevent supplies from abroad to come in to fill the void. It seems like a very poor example to refer to when talking about the broad economy’s needs and completely unrelated to a tech bubble.
hopefullywrong 4y ago
Agreed, some part of this feels like capital is flexing its muscle after a period of employees having incredible gains.
TigeriusKirk 4y ago
I feel like we talk ourselves into maybe half of the economic downturns we experience. It's probably inevitable and maybe even necessary psychologically.

guerrilla 4y ago

This comment seems crazy given that we just had COVID-19, a war causing a massive energy crisis and multiple systemic commodities problems and then climate change... Also you're assuming interest rate hikes have no effect? I have no idea how you could think what's coming isn't entirely material... How can you just ignore all that?

liuliu 4y ago
We had COVID-19 for 2 years. The U.S. is surging back with unique challenge of spending transition from goods back to services. It is a challenge. "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Interest rate hike certainly has impact, but that is the Fed to decide. Remember, Trump asked Fed to not raise rate before and JPow kowtowed to that just fine. China's shutdown is a Black Swan. The market apparently haven't digested that yet (APPL "only" down 20% YTD).
- wolverine876 4y ago
  > "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Also a bad idea for climate change, which is becoming very expensive.
  - liuliu 4y ago
    Agreed. But unfortunately, nobody takes climate change (and related cost) seriously. You need a strong Federal government to enforce that cost structure (and hopefully globally, if strong enough), and the United States won't have a strong Federal government for decades to come.
    - amluto 4y ago
      We are potentially quite close to the point where small modular reactors could be commercially viable. I can easily imagine $10-20bn, carefully spent, accelerating the process. Imagine, for example, the military placing an order for a few SMRs from each of the credible startups in the space. The reactors themselves would surely be overpriced and of dubious value, but it might substantially accelerate development and production. In a situation where energy supplies are limited, the availability of extra (carbon-free!) electricity could help considerably.
    - wolverine876 4y ago
      A priori, let's quit! If people spent as much time talking about and acting on climate change as they do about how hopeless it is - a very convenient public belief for the greenhouse gas producers, even better than FUD! - we'd have fixed it. Get off your rump.
- echelon 4y ago
  > China's shutdown is a Black Swan. How bad will this be? Is China waiting to renegotiate tariffs?

username_my1 4y ago

“Stop supporting innovation” Are we talking about groceries delivery in under 15 minutes or crypto bla bla bla Most recent VC backed starups are a big Bonze scheme that lead to poor economical output Just look at the last spacs how poorly they performed Hard tech is rare, and it’s not even interesting for vc So innovation and vc startups really don’t have anything to do with each other

liuliu 4y ago

That's why it is extremely frustrating to watch this unfold. The easiest way to kill inflation is to kill growth. But that won't help people in need anyway. An empty shelf of baby formulas are not a sign of "economy is too hot". It is a sign of supply issue.

ordu 4y ago
> An empty shelf of baby formulas Can I ask you why you've chosen this particular example? It is not about I agree with you, or I'm going to contradict in a some way, it is completely unrelated question. A complete off-topic.
- liuliu 4y ago
  The cause of this round is not some sudden bubble burst. Fed raise rates because they want to signal that they are serious about taming the inflation. That caused sharp sentiment change in capital market. The cause of this round of inflation can be many things, we've been in low-interest environment for 10+ years with occasional QEs. It hasn't inflated the economy as much as we hoped for that 10+ years. It is lazy thinking to attribute back to QE for this round of inflation.
- shortstuffsushi 4y ago
  I believe the example was likely chosen due to the recent controversial bill in congress [0]. However, I think the choice of baby formula shows that some "core" needs in the economy are missing as well, and that the tech bubble struggling. 0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/house-passes-fda-baby-formula-bill-but-senate-fate-is-uncertain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/house-pas... (Picked at random from a search for "baby formula bill")
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    The baby formula shortage is specifically related to one company’s production being shut down, supposedly due to their negligence in maintaining quality in conjunction with policies specific to baby formula that prevent supplies from abroad to come in to fill the void. It seems like a very poor example to refer to when talking about the broad economy’s needs and completely unrelated to a tech bubble.

hopefullywrong 4y ago

Agreed, some part of this feels like capital is flexing its muscle after a period of employees having incredible gains.

TigeriusKirk 4y ago

I feel like we talk ourselves into maybe half of the economic downturns we experience. It's probably inevitable and maybe even necessary psychologically.