4 ms·

Why is the Covid case rate in San Francisco so much higher than the U.S.?

4 points by IdEntities 4y ago

gardenfelder 4y ago
https://archive.ph/AqUDz https://archive.ph/AqUDz
codefreeordie 4y ago
The answer seems very straightforward: the vaccines have at best minimal effect on preventing infection after a few months (some data, including the Walgreens long-term data, suggest negative efficacy after about 4-5 months). Since lockdowns don't and can't last forever, and the virus isn't going to go away, infection rates now are highest in places that had fewer infections in the past -- in immunocompetent adults, at least, recovery from infection confers much longer-lasting and robust immunity than the vaccine (which is only presenting spikes) This is the reason that right now, world wide, several of the biggest hot spots are places that "did well" early on by having draconian lockdowns -- they have a higher proportion of the population who weren't exposed initially, back when the virus was less transmissible and lockdowns could somewhat reduce spread. The problem with the lockdown strategy was always that someday you have to come back outside, and the virus will wait as long as it takes. (And then also, we have pushed the virus to become more transmissive to the point where lockdowns can't really prevent spread anymore (which is why everywhere but China has given up on them))
- cyanydeez 4y ago
  I won't fact check the rest, but your understanding of the lockdowns suggest a larger ignorance not worth dealing with. Lockdowns were about allowing existing hospital capacity to work as effective as possible. They're a buffer. No more not less. Overrunning the buffer means greater harm. Most of modern society has moved past where you seem to conceptualize social care. The goal of the best in practice social care is harm reduction, not elimination.
  - IdEntities 4y ago
    > Lockdowns were about allowing existing hospital capacity to work as effective as possible. The existence of a large fanbase for "Zero COVID" ideology (including among many "public health experts"), which was actually attempted in many countries around the world, shows the arrogance with which you composed your reply to be quite misplaced. In the summer and fall of 2020 I would bet that well over half of Americans still thought that the prudent thing to do was diligently to avoid infection until a vaccine was available, and saw lockdowns and other restrictions as wise and helpful policy measures toward that end. The reigning mentality was "COVID is really bad, but we don't need to get it if we can just hold out until the vaccines are available." The point of the lockdowns has only been revised in retrospect as it has become clear the vaccines have completely failed at preventing infection.
    - moistly 4y ago
      I’m far happier to catch Omicron now, than Delta back in October 2020. Judging by ICU rates, the unvaccinated are much more likely to end up deathly ill.
      - metadat 4y ago
        > I’m far happier to catch Omicron now, than Delta back in October 2020. The omicron mortality rate is the same as with previous covid variants. Regardless, I'd still rather not get covid at all, risking long hauler effects is unappealing.
        moistly 4y ago
        No. Omicron death rate is lower. > The risk of death involving COVID-19 was estimated to be 67% lower (hazard ratio: 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.24 to 0.45) following Omicron infection relative to Delta. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparingtheriskofdeathinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19byvariantengland/december2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... > Despite Omicron seeing the highest reported numbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations during the pandemic, disease severity indicators, including length of stay, ICU admission, and death, were lower than during previous pandemic peaks. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm... Omicron is infecting a heck of a lot more people, so the absolute number of deaths is higher, but the risk of death is much lower at an individual level.

4 points by IdEntities 4y ago

https://archive.ph/AqUDz https://archive.ph/AqUDz

The answer seems very straightforward: the vaccines have at best minimal effect on preventing infection after a few months (some data, including the Walgreens long-term data, suggest negative efficacy after about 4-5 months). Since lockdowns don't and can't last forever, and the virus isn't going to go away, infection rates now are highest in places that had fewer infections in the past -- in immunocompetent adults, at least, recovery from infection confers much longer-lasting and robust immunity than the vaccine (which is only presenting spikes) This is the reason that right now, world wide, several of the biggest hot spots are places that "did well" early on by having draconian lockdowns -- they have a higher proportion of the population who weren't exposed initially, back when the virus was less transmissible and lockdowns could somewhat reduce spread. The problem with the lockdown strategy was always that someday you have to come back outside, and the virus will wait as long as it takes. (And then also, we have pushed the virus to become more transmissive to the point where lockdowns can't really prevent spread anymore (which is why everywhere but China has given up on them))

cyanydeez 4y ago
I won't fact check the rest, but your understanding of the lockdowns suggest a larger ignorance not worth dealing with. Lockdowns were about allowing existing hospital capacity to work as effective as possible. They're a buffer. No more not less. Overrunning the buffer means greater harm. Most of modern society has moved past where you seem to conceptualize social care. The goal of the best in practice social care is harm reduction, not elimination.
- IdEntities 4y ago
  > Lockdowns were about allowing existing hospital capacity to work as effective as possible. The existence of a large fanbase for "Zero COVID" ideology (including among many "public health experts"), which was actually attempted in many countries around the world, shows the arrogance with which you composed your reply to be quite misplaced. In the summer and fall of 2020 I would bet that well over half of Americans still thought that the prudent thing to do was diligently to avoid infection until a vaccine was available, and saw lockdowns and other restrictions as wise and helpful policy measures toward that end. The reigning mentality was "COVID is really bad, but we don't need to get it if we can just hold out until the vaccines are available." The point of the lockdowns has only been revised in retrospect as it has become clear the vaccines have completely failed at preventing infection.
  - moistly 4y ago
    I’m far happier to catch Omicron now, than Delta back in October 2020. Judging by ICU rates, the unvaccinated are much more likely to end up deathly ill.
    - metadat 4y ago
      > I’m far happier to catch Omicron now, than Delta back in October 2020. The omicron mortality rate is the same as with previous covid variants. Regardless, I'd still rather not get covid at all, risking long hauler effects is unappealing.
      - moistly 4y ago
        No. Omicron death rate is lower. > The risk of death involving COVID-19 was estimated to be 67% lower (hazard ratio: 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.24 to 0.45) following Omicron infection relative to Delta. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparingtheriskofdeathinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19byvariantengland/december2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... > Despite Omicron seeing the highest reported numbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations during the pandemic, disease severity indicators, including length of stay, ICU admission, and death, were lower than during previous pandemic peaks. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm... Omicron is infecting a heck of a lot more people, so the absolute number of deaths is higher, but the risk of death is much lower at an individual level.