12 ms·

Fed unwind + lack of natural resources + Russia are the culprits. Really the worst of all possibilities. I want to extend my heartfelt sadness to those of you i

by fny 4y ago

Fed unwind + lack of natural resources + Russia are the culprits. Really the worst of all possibilities. I want to extend my heartfelt sadness to those of you in the Eurozone. This must be an incredibly painful time.

oaiey 4y ago
Be sorry for the Ukrainians. They suffer. The rest of the Eurozone will deal with the stuff. We always have. It's not the first crisis.
- goodguyamerikan 4y ago
  - gchokov 4y ago
- kkfx 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - nixarn 4y ago
    Because of NATO and Nazis? Really? You have 8 million fleeing the country because of Russia's invasion, cities turned into ruins, civilians murdered, raped and tortured. If Russia was such a good guy in this scenario they would allow for freedom of press and speech. And they'd provide evidence everyone could back up. No country is perfect, also the document you shared was post Russia's first aggressions to annex Crimea, and you blame Ukraine? I don't doubt Ukrainians have done war crimes as well, it happens when you're at war. But it wouldn't have happened if Russia just let Ukraine alone to develop, it was doing pretty good compared to Russia before all of this.
    - polotics 4y ago
      The joke that is Lavrov accusing the UK of having fabricated evidence of atrocities in Bucha, then blocking any UN resolution that would investigate said atrocities... How much more evidence of guilt and depravity do you need. I agree the Russians are friendly good people, and this is why they need to be liberated from the thugs that run their beautiful country.
    - soneil 4y ago
      "The Foundation for the Study of Democracy is led by Maksim Grigoriev. He is the Chairman of the Coordinating Council for Public Control over Voting at the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation. The organisation started working on discrediting the Ukrainian side in 2013, when pro-Russian president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union." The document they provided is pure Russian propaganda. It doesn't need excusing.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- c0nducktr 4y ago
  You know you can be sorry for more than one group of people at once, right?
- heurisko 4y ago
  I can remember what the Eurozone, as the Commission, Central Bank and IMF did to countries after the European sovereign debt crisis. There was a complete lack of solidarity, which precipitated a humanitarian crisis in countries like Greece. The idea of the Eurozone as something akin to a nation state is a myth.
  - MagnumOpus 4y ago
    > There was a complete lack of solidarity You seem to remember things that are arguably untrue, I wonder why. The EU, ECB and IMF spent something like €300 billions for loans at extremely low interest rates (€30,000 for each Greek citizen) to keep Greece afloat and prevent it from going down in the way that Lebanon or other places outside the EU's aegis did more recently. And that despite the fact that Greek officials conspired to lie about debt/GDP numbers to get into the Eurozone, immediately broke Eurozone guidelines about deficits and debts to start fiscal giveaways, and after the crisis broke every promise about raising cash through privatisations.
    - heurisko 4y ago
      > to keep Greece afloat and prevent it from going down in the way that Lebanon or other places outside the EU's aegis did more recently No, they did it to keep the EU banking system afloat, which was exposed to Greek debt. They also wanted Greece to remain in the Euro, rather than returning to the drachma and admitting they couldn't square the circle of a shared currency without shared fiscal policy. Greece in the Euro vs Lebanon is a false dichotomy.
  - nradov 4y ago
    The humanitarian crisis in Greece was caused by Greeks, not by a lack of Eurozone solidarity. And in humanitarian terms it wasn't even much of a crisis. No one starved to death.
    - heurisko 4y ago
      The austerity measures imposed by the EU Troika increased preventable mortality in Greece. https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/31/the-terrible-human-cost-of-greeces-bailouts/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/31/the-t... At the time, the German taxpayer rightly said "Why should I help the innocent citizens of Greece, when they can retire before me?" EU solidarity was not possible, as this would have meant the Germans having some say in cleaning up Greek corruption and/or equalising things like retirement age, in return for fiscal stimulus from the German taxpayer. Of course this can't happen under the EU, and will arguably never happen. So the only route is austerity.
- blub 4y ago
  Self-neglect of the EU for “good causes” outside the EU is a well-established pattern with the media and political elites and also in significant parts of the financially comfortable middle class. In the end, for them, poverty and additional difficulties in the lower classes are a good trade-off for silencing political rivals, feeding the military complex and most of all, feeling good about themselves. As the old saying goes, never let a crisis go to waste.
landemva 4y ago
Europe has many natural resources. They choose to not use local energy (German coal, nuclear). They choose to run unsustainable spending and negative interest rates. Most of the euro weakness is of their own making.
- bpye 4y ago
  Increasing dependency on coal would be foolish - it has a greater climate and health impact. Gas certainly is not great, but it's an improvement.
  - nivenkos 4y ago
    I think it's time to ignore climate concerns for now. Otherwise autocracies and selfish governments have a massive advantage - e.g. the US pulling out of the Paris accord, Russia, etc. At this rate the economy might collapse this time next year when gas shortages really bite combined with the rising interest rates, inflation and unemployment.
    - akmarinov 4y ago
      You’re probably being downvoted by Americans, but you’re right. What better way to break away from Russian gas than using coal. Poland’s already doing it.
darthrupert 4y ago
It could be painful but it will be worth it.
kkfx 4y ago
It's simply due to the fact that EU Gov. choose to go for UK and USA interest AGAINST our EU Citizens interest, that's why the EUR plunge. The sole hope IMVHO is a series off mass protest asking only one thing: jailing for life in very harsh conditions our actual ruling class stating that we still want to de Democracies, witch is veeeery unlikely.
- bpye 4y ago
  I'm not entirely sure what you're referring to - can you elaborate? How have the EU gone with UK and US interests rather than their own?
  - kkfx 4y ago
    Russian Fed. is a natural partner: - we are all European, till the Urals, we understand each others as we have done even during the cold war BETTER that what we do with the so called "anglosphere" (cfr Limes, geopolitical review), we also share similar values; - they have gazillion of natural resources we need, they are developed enough to harvest them but not enough to surpass us in tech terms, they are surrounded by not-really-friendly powers (China in primis) so we need their resources, they need our tech and support, an equal, balanced and fair partnership; Our best interest is going out of NATO, form a REAL European Union, with a common fiscal and social system, a French-lead initial nuclear deterrent toward an EU army (due to the still present language differences that makes a real general army not really doable in short time), toward again an anti-fascist Costitution modeled around Italy and Germany ones, offering Russia to apply for EAEU (EuroAsian union) with a pact of mutual and fair partnership. That's was ALREADY ongoing and that's why USA and UK have crafted Ukrainian coup n. 1 (orange revolution https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2008.00343.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2008.00343.x for instance) the n. 2 (Euromaidan massacres [1]) and have keeping forging nazis in the east, if you do not know just read OFFICIAL docs like: https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf or famous think tanks from USA like: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html and relevant doc https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB10000/RB10014/RAND_RB10014.pdf https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/R... [1] start from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 and https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-rus... observing the famous "F*ck the EU" Nuland's phrase AND who report that
jltsiren 4y ago
I'm actually more optimistic for the EU than I've been in a long time. There is a major crisis again, but instead of arguing and fighting, the countries are working together and getting things done. The economic downturn may be painful in the short term, but if the countries can maintain the unity, the future looks promising.
- Doxin 4y ago
  While the current goings-on aren't great for the citizens of the EU, it may very well be the best thing to happen to the EU itself in a long time. Everyone is reminded why this union is so vital. If the order of events between this and brexit were reversed, I'm sure the brexit vote would be wildly tilted in favor of remain.
Markoff 4y ago
That's why I'm paid in USD while living in EU. :-) Though huge inflation is still an issue, I just saw price increase stats from US stastistics bureau and you have laughable inflation, here flour is like +100%, chicken +30%, cooking oil +80-100% , cheapest bread +35-40%, etc. I don't even know electricity/gas increase, luckily I use only little bit of gas and I don't drive car, so I will be hit only with electricity bill.
- herbst 4y ago
  I don't track the Euro. But as soon as I get paid in USD I exchange to CHF (Swiss) because USD is a constant downtrend for months comparingly. It's all always about the POV :)
  - jsnell 4y ago
    Huh? CHFUSD is down from 1.07 to 1.0 in the last month.
    - Markoff 4y ago
      or from 0.90 on May 14th 2021 to 1.00 on May 12th that doesn't seem like some downtrend in recent months and especially last 5 weeks steep growth
  - Markoff 4y ago
    downtrend? last 10 years it's the CHF in downtrend against USD and especially in last 11 months it's the USD just going continously up against CHF
raxxorraxor 4y ago
Even with vastly lower income compared to the US, engineers still live quite comfortable. If we don't get gas we just use electricity for heating. Most probably don't even feel the price development at all. But I expect inflation to be around 10% at the minimum, official numbers are skewed. Especially on day-to-day needs products. For many that earn less it is a difficult time, especially after long lockdowns. Most small commercial venues are dead and there don't seem to be new ones.
rambojazz 4y ago
Why should the conversion rate be so incredibly painful and sad for the EU?

by fny 4y ago

oaiey 4y ago

Be sorry for the Ukrainians. They suffer. The rest of the Eurozone will deal with the stuff. We always have. It's not the first crisis.

goodguyamerikan 4y ago
- gchokov 4y ago
kkfx 4y ago
[flagged]
- nixarn 4y ago
  Because of NATO and Nazis? Really? You have 8 million fleeing the country because of Russia's invasion, cities turned into ruins, civilians murdered, raped and tortured. If Russia was such a good guy in this scenario they would allow for freedom of press and speech. And they'd provide evidence everyone could back up. No country is perfect, also the document you shared was post Russia's first aggressions to annex Crimea, and you blame Ukraine? I don't doubt Ukrainians have done war crimes as well, it happens when you're at war. But it wouldn't have happened if Russia just let Ukraine alone to develop, it was doing pretty good compared to Russia before all of this.
  - polotics 4y ago
    The joke that is Lavrov accusing the UK of having fabricated evidence of atrocities in Bucha, then blocking any UN resolution that would investigate said atrocities... How much more evidence of guilt and depravity do you need. I agree the Russians are friendly good people, and this is why they need to be liberated from the thugs that run their beautiful country.
  - soneil 4y ago
    "The Foundation for the Study of Democracy is led by Maksim Grigoriev. He is the Chairman of the Coordinating Council for Public Control over Voting at the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation. The organisation started working on discrediting the Ukrainian side in 2013, when pro-Russian president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union." The document they provided is pure Russian propaganda. It doesn't need excusing.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
c0nducktr 4y ago
You know you can be sorry for more than one group of people at once, right?
heurisko 4y ago
I can remember what the Eurozone, as the Commission, Central Bank and IMF did to countries after the European sovereign debt crisis. There was a complete lack of solidarity, which precipitated a humanitarian crisis in countries like Greece. The idea of the Eurozone as something akin to a nation state is a myth.
- MagnumOpus 4y ago
  > There was a complete lack of solidarity You seem to remember things that are arguably untrue, I wonder why. The EU, ECB and IMF spent something like €300 billions for loans at extremely low interest rates (€30,000 for each Greek citizen) to keep Greece afloat and prevent it from going down in the way that Lebanon or other places outside the EU's aegis did more recently. And that despite the fact that Greek officials conspired to lie about debt/GDP numbers to get into the Eurozone, immediately broke Eurozone guidelines about deficits and debts to start fiscal giveaways, and after the crisis broke every promise about raising cash through privatisations.
  - heurisko 4y ago
    > to keep Greece afloat and prevent it from going down in the way that Lebanon or other places outside the EU's aegis did more recently No, they did it to keep the EU banking system afloat, which was exposed to Greek debt. They also wanted Greece to remain in the Euro, rather than returning to the drachma and admitting they couldn't square the circle of a shared currency without shared fiscal policy. Greece in the Euro vs Lebanon is a false dichotomy.
- nradov 4y ago
  The humanitarian crisis in Greece was caused by Greeks, not by a lack of Eurozone solidarity. And in humanitarian terms it wasn't even much of a crisis. No one starved to death.
  - heurisko 4y ago
    The austerity measures imposed by the EU Troika increased preventable mortality in Greece. https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/31/the-terrible-human-cost-of-greeces-bailouts/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/31/the-t... At the time, the German taxpayer rightly said "Why should I help the innocent citizens of Greece, when they can retire before me?" EU solidarity was not possible, as this would have meant the Germans having some say in cleaning up Greek corruption and/or equalising things like retirement age, in return for fiscal stimulus from the German taxpayer. Of course this can't happen under the EU, and will arguably never happen. So the only route is austerity.
blub 4y ago
Self-neglect of the EU for “good causes” outside the EU is a well-established pattern with the media and political elites and also in significant parts of the financially comfortable middle class. In the end, for them, poverty and additional difficulties in the lower classes are a good trade-off for silencing political rivals, feeding the military complex and most of all, feeling good about themselves. As the old saying goes, never let a crisis go to waste.

landemva 4y ago

Europe has many natural resources. They choose to not use local energy (German coal, nuclear). They choose to run unsustainable spending and negative interest rates. Most of the euro weakness is of their own making.

bpye 4y ago
Increasing dependency on coal would be foolish - it has a greater climate and health impact. Gas certainly is not great, but it's an improvement.
- nivenkos 4y ago
  I think it's time to ignore climate concerns for now. Otherwise autocracies and selfish governments have a massive advantage - e.g. the US pulling out of the Paris accord, Russia, etc. At this rate the economy might collapse this time next year when gas shortages really bite combined with the rising interest rates, inflation and unemployment.
  - akmarinov 4y ago
    You’re probably being downvoted by Americans, but you’re right. What better way to break away from Russian gas than using coal. Poland’s already doing it.

darthrupert 4y ago

It could be painful but it will be worth it.

kkfx 4y ago

It's simply due to the fact that EU Gov. choose to go for UK and USA interest AGAINST our EU Citizens interest, that's why the EUR plunge. The sole hope IMVHO is a series off mass protest asking only one thing: jailing for life in very harsh conditions our actual ruling class stating that we still want to de Democracies, witch is veeeery unlikely.

bpye 4y ago
I'm not entirely sure what you're referring to - can you elaborate? How have the EU gone with UK and US interests rather than their own?
- kkfx 4y ago
  Russian Fed. is a natural partner: - we are all European, till the Urals, we understand each others as we have done even during the cold war BETTER that what we do with the so called "anglosphere" (cfr Limes, geopolitical review), we also share similar values; - they have gazillion of natural resources we need, they are developed enough to harvest them but not enough to surpass us in tech terms, they are surrounded by not-really-friendly powers (China in primis) so we need their resources, they need our tech and support, an equal, balanced and fair partnership; Our best interest is going out of NATO, form a REAL European Union, with a common fiscal and social system, a French-lead initial nuclear deterrent toward an EU army (due to the still present language differences that makes a real general army not really doable in short time), toward again an anti-fascist Costitution modeled around Italy and Germany ones, offering Russia to apply for EAEU (EuroAsian union) with a pact of mutual and fair partnership. That's was ALREADY ongoing and that's why USA and UK have crafted Ukrainian coup n. 1 (orange revolution https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2008.00343.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2008.00343.x for instance) the n. 2 (Euromaidan massacres [1]) and have keeping forging nazis in the east, if you do not know just read OFFICIAL docs like: https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/e/7/233896.pdf or famous think tanks from USA like: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html and relevant doc https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB10000/RB10014/RAND_RB10014.pdf https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/R... [1] start from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 and https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-rus... observing the famous "F*ck the EU" Nuland's phrase AND who report that

jltsiren 4y ago

I'm actually more optimistic for the EU than I've been in a long time. There is a major crisis again, but instead of arguing and fighting, the countries are working together and getting things done. The economic downturn may be painful in the short term, but if the countries can maintain the unity, the future looks promising.

Doxin 4y ago
While the current goings-on aren't great for the citizens of the EU, it may very well be the best thing to happen to the EU itself in a long time. Everyone is reminded why this union is so vital. If the order of events between this and brexit were reversed, I'm sure the brexit vote would be wildly tilted in favor of remain.

Markoff 4y ago

That's why I'm paid in USD while living in EU. :-) Though huge inflation is still an issue, I just saw price increase stats from US stastistics bureau and you have laughable inflation, here flour is like +100%, chicken +30%, cooking oil +80-100% , cheapest bread +35-40%, etc. I don't even know electricity/gas increase, luckily I use only little bit of gas and I don't drive car, so I will be hit only with electricity bill.

herbst 4y ago
I don't track the Euro. But as soon as I get paid in USD I exchange to CHF (Swiss) because USD is a constant downtrend for months comparingly. It's all always about the POV :)
- jsnell 4y ago
  Huh? CHFUSD is down from 1.07 to 1.0 in the last month.
  - Markoff 4y ago
    or from 0.90 on May 14th 2021 to 1.00 on May 12th that doesn't seem like some downtrend in recent months and especially last 5 weeks steep growth
- Markoff 4y ago
  downtrend? last 10 years it's the CHF in downtrend against USD and especially in last 11 months it's the USD just going continously up against CHF

raxxorraxor 4y ago

Even with vastly lower income compared to the US, engineers still live quite comfortable. If we don't get gas we just use electricity for heating. Most probably don't even feel the price development at all. But I expect inflation to be around 10% at the minimum, official numbers are skewed. Especially on day-to-day needs products. For many that earn less it is a difficult time, especially after long lockdowns. Most small commercial venues are dead and there don't seem to be new ones.

rambojazz 4y ago

Why should the conversion rate be so incredibly painful and sad for the EU?