7 ms·

This reads like the "feel good" stuff coming out of Western press these days. Still doesn't change the fact that Russians just successfully completed the siege

This reads like the "feel good" stuff coming out of Western press these days. Still doesn't change the fact that Russians just successfully completed the siege of Mariupol.

pjc50 4y ago
After giving up the siege of Kyiv. And everywhere in the north of the country. Going by https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524358910190174208/photo/1 https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524358910190174208/pho... , what appears to have happened is that they've been successful in pushing out from regions they already control in the south and east, while losing badly in the attack from Belarus in the north. The Ukrainians are successfully pushing them back in a roughly clockwise direction. Kharkiv and Izium next. What happens over the medium term depends on what Russia has in reserve that actually works, and what the West has in reserve that it's willing to ship to Ukraine. Then it comes to the question of replacement. How much can Russia manufacture without Western high-tech inputs? I wouldn't rule out the ability of Western governments to send "little green men" of their own, beyond the current few tiktok tourists that have gone there on their own initiative.
- alaricus 4y ago
  > How much can Russia manufacture without Western high-tech inputs? They'll just buy from China. There is nothing the West makes that China can't also sell.
NicoJuicy 4y ago
Flag of Ukraine is still on Azovstal in Mariupol...
- alaricus 4y ago
  They are surrounded and stranded in a massive cold war bunker. Assuming they have supplies, I don't expect they will give up soon. But they have no chance of reclaiming Mariupol.
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    > Still doesn't change the fact that Russians just successfully completed the siege of Mariupol. So, you knew this wasn't correct? That's weird. So Russia has 2 cities after 70 days and you think that can't be reclaimed... Lol.
rasz 4y ago
On one hand it sounds plausible. On the other there are still videos coming out of Azov hunkered down in Mariupol. Not to mention this gem from May 6: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524360854514319361?cxt=HHwWgoCyrd2Hz6cqAAAA https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524360854514319361?cxt...
jdoep1pxkd 4y ago
The russian side expected to take the entire country in a matter of days. Now it's celebrating because it took Mariupol after two months of shelling some amateurs in some caves, turning the entire world against them. Not exactly stellar performance.
- alaricus 4y ago
  Did they? Or was it Western perceptions of the Russian intentions? Ukraine is a huge country with 40 million people. One does not simply take over that in a few days.
  - seanw444 4y ago
    One does, according to HN armchair tacticians.
    - NicoJuicy 4y ago
      That's not what is said. They are referencing to the "planned" articles that appeared on Russian state media days after the invasion. Additionally, Russia thought that they bribed enough politicians to willingly hand over the cities to them. The resistance was obviously more fierce than expected. This isn't about HN armchair whatever. This is known news if you're following the situation as many here do...
      - alaricus 4y ago
        > This is known news if you're following the situation if you are following the situation from Western media outlets. The West has a stake in this fight and the reporting is far from unbiased.
        taskforcegemini 4y ago
  - bsder 4y ago
mdp2021 4y ago
But "sounds like" and "reads like" are bad methods if they outcome in erroneous early stopping.

This reads like the "feel good" stuff coming out of Western press these days. Still doesn't change the fact that Russians just successfully completed the siege of Mariupol.

pjc50 4y ago

After giving up the siege of Kyiv. And everywhere in the north of the country. Going by https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524358910190174208/photo/1 https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524358910190174208/pho... , what appears to have happened is that they've been successful in pushing out from regions they already control in the south and east, while losing badly in the attack from Belarus in the north. The Ukrainians are successfully pushing them back in a roughly clockwise direction. Kharkiv and Izium next. What happens over the medium term depends on what Russia has in reserve that actually works, and what the West has in reserve that it's willing to ship to Ukraine. Then it comes to the question of replacement. How much can Russia manufacture without Western high-tech inputs? I wouldn't rule out the ability of Western governments to send "little green men" of their own, beyond the current few tiktok tourists that have gone there on their own initiative.

alaricus 4y ago
> How much can Russia manufacture without Western high-tech inputs? They'll just buy from China. There is nothing the West makes that China can't also sell.

NicoJuicy 4y ago

Flag of Ukraine is still on Azovstal in Mariupol...

alaricus 4y ago
They are surrounded and stranded in a massive cold war bunker. Assuming they have supplies, I don't expect they will give up soon. But they have no chance of reclaiming Mariupol.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  > Still doesn't change the fact that Russians just successfully completed the siege of Mariupol. So, you knew this wasn't correct? That's weird. So Russia has 2 cities after 70 days and you think that can't be reclaimed... Lol.

rasz 4y ago

On one hand it sounds plausible. On the other there are still videos coming out of Azov hunkered down in Mariupol. Not to mention this gem from May 6: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524360854514319361?cxt=HHwWgoCyrd2Hz6cqAAAA https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524360854514319361?cxt...

jdoep1pxkd 4y ago

The russian side expected to take the entire country in a matter of days. Now it's celebrating because it took Mariupol after two months of shelling some amateurs in some caves, turning the entire world against them. Not exactly stellar performance.

alaricus 4y ago
Did they? Or was it Western perceptions of the Russian intentions? Ukraine is a huge country with 40 million people. One does not simply take over that in a few days.
- seanw444 4y ago
  One does, according to HN armchair tacticians.
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    That's not what is said. They are referencing to the "planned" articles that appeared on Russian state media days after the invasion. Additionally, Russia thought that they bribed enough politicians to willingly hand over the cities to them. The resistance was obviously more fierce than expected. This isn't about HN armchair whatever. This is known news if you're following the situation as many here do...
    - alaricus 4y ago
      > This is known news if you're following the situation if you are following the situation from Western media outlets. The West has a stake in this fight and the reporting is far from unbiased.
      - taskforcegemini 4y ago
- bsder 4y ago

mdp2021 4y ago

But "sounds like" and "reads like" are bad methods if they outcome in erroneous early stopping.