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What’s true on average might not be true for certain individuals, and power-law mechanics might make those individuals more significant than everyone else who m

What’s true on average might not be true for certain individuals, and power-law mechanics might make those individuals more significant than everyone else who makes up the average. Like imagine Elon Musk works 80 hours a week and he doesn’t suffer any negative consequence, he just becomes the most productive human ever according to the market. And then a bunch of other people work 80 hours and they do suffer burnout and become slightly less productive than if they had worked 40 hours. If you say “What’s the expected value of working 80 hours rather than 40?” in that scenario, it’s extremely positive, because the tiny chance you become Elon and have half the wealth in America offsets the very high probability you become a burnout who does no better than average.

koonsolo 4y ago
I'm pretty smart and a hard worker. I have a Masters degree in computer science. I can do about 4 to 6 hours of concentrated work per day. I never seen anyone do more or better. I know plenty of people who claim to work a crazy amout of hours. But in the end it always turns out they are deceiving themselves. I don't know Elon, so maybe he is different. But in the end, I'll believe it when I see it.
- caffeine 4y ago
  You are doing solo, technical, concentrated work. I have seen a lot of people do more and better. But different work, not coding. Like leading and managing people is very possible for some elite people to do for say 70 hours a week and mostly involves talking, persuading, answering emails and phone calls, and most importantly making good decisions. The value of good leadership and good decisions is directly proportional to the number and quality of people being led. So that could be a huge value. Doing twice as much of it could way more than double that value with compounding.
  - koonsolo 4y ago
    I also don't agree with this point of view, and it seems Jeff Bezos shares this point of view: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8981947/amp/Jeff-Bezos-reveals-gets-eight-hours-sleep-makes-three-decisions-day.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl... Quality of work beats quantity any day of the week. And at 80 hours, there just cannot be any quality left. At that point, your mistakes will cost you more. Maybe the people below you might offset your stupidity at that point. I had managers doing 60+ hours. They were not the greatest, in fact, they were terrible.
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  Around 30 years of age, I was able to pull off productive 10-hour days, but three in a row or so. Definitely not for weeks.
  - leaflets2 4y ago
    I'm older. 10-12 hours is not a problem to me if I sleep 1 hour at noon, and take short running breaks, just 1.5 km does wonder. Been doing this for years :-). Software development. I love my job. It's not for money; it has a purpose. I guess that otherwise I would not recommend this o.O
dav_Oz 4y ago
Isn't there a sweet spot though? As Elon, by virtue of his massive wealth now, is depriving an ungodly amount of people of financial resources and opportunities. I mean on that scale I venture to say it's like a Usain Bolt sucking up nearly all the sponsoring for 100m sprinting so there are very few left to even challenge him in a professional sense which makes him even more "valuable". [Of course in this analogy (achievements in sports/wealth) there is a external natural limit in sports all acknowledge: "age"]. So, while form a individual perspective (one-dimension) the expected value investing 80hr/week in becoming a centibillionaire is "positive" on the whole this approach can at aome point severely limit the space of possibilities in terms of technology. I guess that's why Elon - certainly aware of this - tries to push concepts like "rate of innovation" where he makes his patents "open source" so he can offset his own stifling influence.
- caffeine 4y ago
  > As Elon, by virtue of his massive wealth now, is depriving an ungodly amount of people of financial resources and opportunities. That doesn’t make any sense at all. His wealth isn’t made up of financial resources and opportunities that other people could have used - his wealth is the price that other people would be willing to pay him to own shares in the companies he created. I think it’s a common misconception out there that paper billionaires like Elon and Jeff Bezos have like a giant pile of cans of food in a warehouse somewhere that they could give out to people but don’t because they like having the biggest pile. That’s not really the case.
  - gugagore 4y ago
    No one believes they are hoarding cans of food. People say they are hoarding wealth, and assuming it's liquid. https://ncarteron.medium.com/the-billionaires-arent-liquid-argument-is-bs-c3de85d26d8f https://ncarteron.medium.com/the-billionaires-arent-liquid-a... Which it is. They absolutely could, and the only reason they don't is because they like being in the club of biggest-pile-havers.
    - leaflets2 4y ago

koonsolo 4y ago

I'm pretty smart and a hard worker. I have a Masters degree in computer science. I can do about 4 to 6 hours of concentrated work per day. I never seen anyone do more or better. I know plenty of people who claim to work a crazy amout of hours. But in the end it always turns out they are deceiving themselves. I don't know Elon, so maybe he is different. But in the end, I'll believe it when I see it.

caffeine 4y ago
You are doing solo, technical, concentrated work. I have seen a lot of people do more and better. But different work, not coding. Like leading and managing people is very possible for some elite people to do for say 70 hours a week and mostly involves talking, persuading, answering emails and phone calls, and most importantly making good decisions. The value of good leadership and good decisions is directly proportional to the number and quality of people being led. So that could be a huge value. Doing twice as much of it could way more than double that value with compounding.
- koonsolo 4y ago
  I also don't agree with this point of view, and it seems Jeff Bezos shares this point of view: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8981947/amp/Jeff-Bezos-reveals-gets-eight-hours-sleep-makes-three-decisions-day.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl... Quality of work beats quantity any day of the week. And at 80 hours, there just cannot be any quality left. At that point, your mistakes will cost you more. Maybe the people below you might offset your stupidity at that point. I had managers doing 60+ hours. They were not the greatest, in fact, they were terrible.
inglor_cz 4y ago
Around 30 years of age, I was able to pull off productive 10-hour days, but three in a row or so. Definitely not for weeks.
- leaflets2 4y ago
  I'm older. 10-12 hours is not a problem to me if I sleep 1 hour at noon, and take short running breaks, just 1.5 km does wonder. Been doing this for years :-). Software development. I love my job. It's not for money; it has a purpose. I guess that otherwise I would not recommend this o.O

dav_Oz 4y ago

Isn't there a sweet spot though? As Elon, by virtue of his massive wealth now, is depriving an ungodly amount of people of financial resources and opportunities. I mean on that scale I venture to say it's like a Usain Bolt sucking up nearly all the sponsoring for 100m sprinting so there are very few left to even challenge him in a professional sense which makes him even more "valuable". [Of course in this analogy (achievements in sports/wealth) there is a external natural limit in sports all acknowledge: "age"]. So, while form a individual perspective (one-dimension) the expected value investing 80hr/week in becoming a centibillionaire is "positive" on the whole this approach can at aome point severely limit the space of possibilities in terms of technology. I guess that's why Elon - certainly aware of this - tries to push concepts like "rate of innovation" where he makes his patents "open source" so he can offset his own stifling influence.

caffeine 4y ago
> As Elon, by virtue of his massive wealth now, is depriving an ungodly amount of people of financial resources and opportunities. That doesn’t make any sense at all. His wealth isn’t made up of financial resources and opportunities that other people could have used - his wealth is the price that other people would be willing to pay him to own shares in the companies he created. I think it’s a common misconception out there that paper billionaires like Elon and Jeff Bezos have like a giant pile of cans of food in a warehouse somewhere that they could give out to people but don’t because they like having the biggest pile. That’s not really the case.
- gugagore 4y ago
  No one believes they are hoarding cans of food. People say they are hoarding wealth, and assuming it's liquid. https://ncarteron.medium.com/the-billionaires-arent-liquid-argument-is-bs-c3de85d26d8f https://ncarteron.medium.com/the-billionaires-arent-liquid-a... Which it is. They absolutely could, and the only reason they don't is because they like being in the club of biggest-pile-havers.
  - leaflets2 4y ago