9 ms·
GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B
by incomingpain 5y ago
GDP: -1.4%
DOW: -8.36% YTD
S&P500: -12.22% YTD
NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD
Inflation: 8.5%
Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%)
Balance of trade: $-89.2B
>they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession.
It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'.
There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour like this and this is obvious enough. What's more important is the reality of civil unrest.
- usrn 5y agoThey're saying there will be food shortages this year. Combined with mass immigration from failed states (so already bringing violence + spreading what little we have even thinner) civil unrest is certain.
- paywallasinbeer 5y agoThe White House is saying the opposite in relation to food shortages: https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1519040538779037701 https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/15190405387790377...
- incomingpain 5y agohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-24/biden-says-to-expect-real-food-shortages-due-to-ukraine-war https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-24/biden-say... In terms of farmers retiring with a non-zero reduction of food produced but also farmers in north america getting more $ to ship their food overseas. In addition to food inflation pushing food prices up to unaffordable levels. I agree with biden, food shortages will be happening.
- paywallasinbeer 5y agoThat seems like an odd mismatch between Biden and Psaki. Do you think it's possible Biden was speaking about the World, more specifically Europe, and Psaki was speaking about the US? If not, I am curious as to why you think there is a mismatch between them on this issue. Non paywall link to that article: https://archive.ph/Rbnv4 https://archive.ph/Rbnv4
- Consultant32452 5y agoI have no idea what's going to happen with food, but it's very common for Biden to say something and then Psaki or other administration officials to walk it back.
- incomingpain 5y agoThere has been quite a few examples of Biden saying something and the white house backpedaling on the comment. It's a very real issue that lots of people beyond Biden have commented on. Ukraine does produce significant food/calories. This is almost certainly going to be bad for europe. I made the obvious case about what might happen soon. I am happy to believe Psaki is the one who is wrong. Which is not really difficult to believe given trackrecord.
- JaimeThompson 5y agoStates as in countries or states as in US states?
- thoughtstheseus 5y agoCountries. The war in Europe is disrupting food production and fertilizer sourcing. There’s enough food but the logistics are screwy and many countries do not store food.
- giraffe_lady 5y agoWait do we have little now? When did that change because when I look around I see much, much that we won't share. Do immigrants always bring violence? Why did their states fail anyway? Could we have had a hand in that, bear some responsibility? Whatever the specifics of the answers you see to these questions your comment sucks. It's using racist fears to stoke xenophobic resentment.
- usrn 5y ago
- causi 5y agoMaybe not this year and maybe not in the US, but next year much of the world will see significantly reduced food production both as a result of war/sanctions with food-exporting nations and a global fertilizer shortage. https://i.imgur.com/DqKpRbU.gif https://i.imgur.com/DqKpRbU.gif
- MaysonL 5y ago> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.
- BitwiseFool 5y agoSomething about that $4 Billion figure seems exaggerated, intangible, or simply an on-paper calculation. Assuming a truck carrying food is 6 hours late, how much spoilage does that actually cause? Would a pileup on an interstate causing an hours long delay likewise have its "impact" calculated to be in the tens of millions?
- bluejekyll 5y agoI haven’t seen a $4 billion number, $9 billion is the total trade. $240 million is the estimate lost due to spoilage, and the longest waiting time looks to have been 30 hours: https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-gov-greg-abbott-truck-inspection-policy-creates-logjam-2022-4?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-gov-greg-abbott-truck-...
- s1artibartfast 5y agoI don't know about fruit, but nuts like pistachios will spoil after 12 hours in a truck. You have a finite time before picking and processing before they rot, and a tractor trailer is about the worst environment as the the load can cook itself from the waste heat of biological activity in a large poorly ventilated volume.
- incomingpain 5y ago>How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion. https://medium.com/the-haven/texas-gov-abbotts-racist-border-stunt-causes-240-million-in-produce-to-rot-7916af25a7b0 https://medium.com/the-haven/texas-gov-abbotts-racist-border... This article says $240 million and he reversed the policy? So it's not an ongoing issue? Also if food is 'rotting' because he is sitting in a truck for perhaps a day longer? Perhaps it was rotting before?
- JKCalhoun 5y ago> A civil pillar like food scarcity will spark more than civil unrest. Probably will be civil war before midterms happen. Like what happened with the Great Depression? I saw no mention of food shortages in the article. My sense is that civil wars are when states/governments fight, not hungry people. You could have stopped at civil unrest.
- incomingpain 5y agoArab spring is a more modern example. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-bread-food-prices-civil-unrest-arab-spring-egypt-2022-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-bread-food-pr... https://medium.com/something-about-everything/food-riots-and-the-arab-spring-4886e4c3604 https://medium.com/something-about-everything/food-riots-and... >My sense is that civil wars are when states/governments fight, not hungry people. You could have stopped at civil unrest. What happens when food is scarce and people are starving for possibly the first time in their life? Anxiety, depression, etc is well established. Then people are going to want to know why they are starving.
- Balero 5y agoThe food scarcity we have experienced in the pandemic is more like people wondering why there are no peppers or chicken this week. But there is plenty of other food to eat. I think any issues we have will be people not having their first option of food, not going hungry.
- codefreeordie 5y agoMaybe in your neck of the woods. I had a solid weeklong period here where no store within 15 miles had any fresh dairy products, meats, produce other than herbs, or bulk grains (flour, rice, pasta, etc).
- Balero 5y agoOut of interest, where were you? Just to flesh out my experience. In the UK we defiantly had some things missing from shelves, but it would be running out of strawberry cereal bars and having to have raspberry ones instead. Aside from some short term (about 2 weeks) issues with everyone buying all the loo roll, there wasn't anything that couldn't be replaced.
- ianhawes 5y agoNot sure if you noticed but we had massive food scarcity in March and April 2020 and the most inconvenient thing about it was waiting in line to pay and my kids not having hot dogs for several months. Not saying civil unrest isn’t a possibility, but I’m not sure economic uncertainty could do any worse than airborne-once-in-a-lifetime pandemic
- indymike 5y ago> Not sure if you noticed but we had massive food scarcity in March and April 2020 and the most inconvenient thing about it was waiting in line to pay and my kids not having hot dogs for several months Where was this? I had a few trips to the grocery where specific items were out of stock or rationed (i.e. limit 2 per customer), but never saw a shortage of processed meats.
- boringg 5y agoI think you are living too deep in your fears - lots of doom and gloom here. There isn't anything relative to a food shortage about to happen in the US and certainly we aren't on the cusp of a civil war. DC is actually less acrimonious than it was. The equity market is not the economy and a lot of the financial websites make money on hyping up the latest quarterly numbers. Are there concerns here? Yes, there always are - is the world about to end from this? Absolutely not.
- incomingpain 5y ago
- alexk307 5y agoWhat are you talking about? Biden is going to use nuclear weapons against US citizens? I assure you, there is no food shortage in the United States. The S&P500 went down 15%, calm down, it'll go back up.
- incomingpain 5y ago
- nemacol 5y ago> Obviously Biden threatened to nuke insurrectionists. That is an insane takeaway from the clip you shared. No reasonable person would listen to those words and take it as a direct threat to bomb insurrectionists. I think you are a troll.
- suetoniusp91 5y agoGo out and touch some grass. Sitting at a computer screen and reading about the world creates a warped reality. Live life don't read about it
- imtringued 5y agoIt's kind of funny how the worst things imaginable happened and everything is still fine. We literally just need to defend Ukraine and wait things out.
- altacc 5y agoFrom a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, most people are willing to accept a good deal of change and discomfort before they are willing to jeopardise their relatively stable & comfortable lives (relative compared to countries where you actually see armed uprisings, revolutions & civil war).
- germinalphrase 5y agoThere is a distinct element of the American psyche that focuses on anti-government suspicions, self determination, armed resistance, etc. It’s part of our founding mythos and reinvents itself in all sorts of contexts. Doesn’t mean it is at all realistic for our present circumstances. I don’t happen to think so. An increase in stochastic violence? Sure. Actual, organized civil war? No chance.
- afarrell 5y agoIt is also a part of the family histories of many Americans. Many of them are descended from people who made the decision to flee 1000s of miles before things got really bad.
- gsibble 5y agoThere are a lot of very angry conservatives who are getting angrier by the day. And they own the vast majority of the guns.
- germinalphrase 5y agoThat cohort is still a numerical minority and while they may own the majority of civilian firearms, the United States government absolutely owns the majority of effective weapons. That said, calling the potential conflict a “domestic insurgency” is not much of a comfort compared to “civil war” even if the former is unlikely to be an existential threat to the country.
- dntrkv 5y agoOh yeah, remember the civil war of 1982? When inflation was 14% and The Fed raised rates to purposefully start a recession? Give me a break, we’ve been through much worse. Let’s stop with the FUD please.
- usrn 5y agoPeople got along a lot better with their neighbors in the 80s than they do now.
- dntrkv 5y agoI think you’re confusing people’s online rhetoric with their IRL interactions. If there was no civil war after 2008, there sure as hell won’t be one this time when people are doing better by most metrics. American’s financial situations are actually quite good right now. Everybody is just anxious as fuck, for many reasons.
- usrn 5y agoAn odd thing to say after people spent the last couple summers burning things down
- dntrkv 5y agoAgain, that’s not the first time that’s happened. We’ve had worse and it didn’t lead to civil war. Think about what a civil war would entail. It is literally war between neighbors. You really think Americans are ready to kill each other en masse and give up everything they have, for what? It’s easy to make proclamations about some abstract idea of “civil war” but the reality is that most Americans are doing relatively well and would not stake their lives on something that doesn’t even promise a better outcome.
- AYBABTME 5y agoI walk and drive around and don't see much burning.