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I suppose we could also frame the question as which tech companies and industries will NOT do well during the recession. I think that streaming services will n

I suppose we could also frame the question as which tech companies and industries will NOT do well during the recession. I think that streaming services will not do well. People will return to torrenting and piracy. Same with crypto trading platforms. Basically any place where Joe Average can't afford to spend more than he has on hand. Tesla will see a big drop too, as people will cash out to buy their groceries. As for what will: free for the end user services that get by on ad revenue and data mining. Alphabet, Facebook, stuff like that.

Robotbeat 4y ago
Torrenting and piracy will do well in part because streaming on Netflix now sucks compared to what it was 10 years ago. Whether Tesla does well depends on partly why the recession occurs. Persistent high energy costs can cause recessions, but high gasoline costs benefit Tesla.
- bluefirebrand 4y ago
  If Tesla wasn't a luxury car brand, maybe. Most people will go for cheaper electric cars, which aren't plentiful but do exist.
  - nebula8804 4y ago
    The three cars OEMs are capable of producing have already been accounted for.
echelon 4y ago
> ad revenue and data mining Ad spend will go down when companies have less to sell. > I think that streaming services will not do well. Entertainment does well in time of recession. People want to take their minds off their problems. Most people do not know how to pirate films. Piracy won't be a huge deal. Netflix is losing out to Disney and HBO. Traditional media caught up and pulled the plug, and great content has never been a core part of Netflix's DNA. They're more algorithmic than taste makers, and unfortunately they've got a low dimensional projection of what people really want.
Melatonic 4y ago
I would disagree - when average Joe loses his job due to a recession they are going to need some form of entertainment to fill their now wide-open schedule. People here might find torrenting and piracy pretty trivial but the average Joe is going to find it a much bigger hurdle than simply logging into Netflix and pressing go.
- laverix 4y ago
  But how does average Joe pay for the account, if the prices for groceries, electricity, heating and transportation explode? If things go really south, average joe will be happy if he can afford food and heat his rented flat at least a little bit in winter.
  - yywwbbn 4y ago
    We already know that governments are likely to just start throwing loads money in every direction if they believe that things are going to go ‘really south’.
  - Melatonic 4y ago
    He probably will keep paying for a single service he really likes and share it with a bunch of people/family and split the costs. But yeah of course if it is between beans and rice and Netflix the person is gonna choose food. But that would be extreme poverty
    - giantg2 4y ago
      I think this assumes they can't get food through other programs (unemployment, snap, food bank, etc). They could have their food and Netflix too.
  - whiplash451 4y ago
    Average Joe will use the cheaper, ad-based plan that Netflix is working on.
  - jallen_dot_dev 4y ago
Bjorkbat 4y ago
AI/ML is a bit of a wildcard for me. On the one hand, I’m certain many companies will be eager cut costs through automation. On the other, investors will likely grow cold if the results just can’t live up to the hype fast enough.
- whiplash451 4y ago
  And the hype won’t deliver fast enough. What has not been automated today will not be automated (robustly) in two years time.
  - mountainriver 4y ago
    There is hype and then there is practical ML which is integrated and working in lots and lots of companies today
- mountainriver 4y ago
  The results are living up. ML is integrated into the core of so many companies at this point it’s not like it was 10 years ago. ML is here to stay and it will be almost the entire economy in the not to distant future
  - bart_spoon 4y ago
    I think the results are mixed. I don’t think anyone is claiming ML will die off. But in my own experience, for every company with a healthy ML environment, there are dozens that are kind of just throwing money and data around without much success, or without even the type of problems ML can solve. And at many companies that do have a solid ML use case, you often have teams of data scientists looking to find new projects that justify their existence because the maintenance of existing ML products doesn’t take up capacity. ML will always be around, but it’s also definitely in a bubble right now in my opinion and there will likely be a contraction before the profession matures and gets to a healthy place.
    - mountainriver 4y ago
scarface74 4y ago
Torrenting is really inconvenient compared to streaming. Yes I had a Plex server set up that I could use from anywhere. It isn’t worth the hassle.

Robotbeat 4y ago

Torrenting and piracy will do well in part because streaming on Netflix now sucks compared to what it was 10 years ago. Whether Tesla does well depends on partly why the recession occurs. Persistent high energy costs can cause recessions, but high gasoline costs benefit Tesla.

bluefirebrand 4y ago
If Tesla wasn't a luxury car brand, maybe. Most people will go for cheaper electric cars, which aren't plentiful but do exist.
- nebula8804 4y ago
  The three cars OEMs are capable of producing have already been accounted for.

echelon 4y ago

> ad revenue and data mining Ad spend will go down when companies have less to sell. > I think that streaming services will not do well. Entertainment does well in time of recession. People want to take their minds off their problems. Most people do not know how to pirate films. Piracy won't be a huge deal. Netflix is losing out to Disney and HBO. Traditional media caught up and pulled the plug, and great content has never been a core part of Netflix's DNA. They're more algorithmic than taste makers, and unfortunately they've got a low dimensional projection of what people really want.

Melatonic 4y ago

I would disagree - when average Joe loses his job due to a recession they are going to need some form of entertainment to fill their now wide-open schedule. People here might find torrenting and piracy pretty trivial but the average Joe is going to find it a much bigger hurdle than simply logging into Netflix and pressing go.

laverix 4y ago
But how does average Joe pay for the account, if the prices for groceries, electricity, heating and transportation explode? If things go really south, average joe will be happy if he can afford food and heat his rented flat at least a little bit in winter.
- yywwbbn 4y ago
  We already know that governments are likely to just start throwing loads money in every direction if they believe that things are going to go ‘really south’.
- Melatonic 4y ago
  He probably will keep paying for a single service he really likes and share it with a bunch of people/family and split the costs. But yeah of course if it is between beans and rice and Netflix the person is gonna choose food. But that would be extreme poverty
  - giantg2 4y ago
    I think this assumes they can't get food through other programs (unemployment, snap, food bank, etc). They could have their food and Netflix too.
- whiplash451 4y ago
  Average Joe will use the cheaper, ad-based plan that Netflix is working on.
- jallen_dot_dev 4y ago

Bjorkbat 4y ago

AI/ML is a bit of a wildcard for me. On the one hand, I’m certain many companies will be eager cut costs through automation. On the other, investors will likely grow cold if the results just can’t live up to the hype fast enough.

whiplash451 4y ago
And the hype won’t deliver fast enough. What has not been automated today will not be automated (robustly) in two years time.
- mountainriver 4y ago
  There is hype and then there is practical ML which is integrated and working in lots and lots of companies today
mountainriver 4y ago
The results are living up. ML is integrated into the core of so many companies at this point it’s not like it was 10 years ago. ML is here to stay and it will be almost the entire economy in the not to distant future
- bart_spoon 4y ago
  I think the results are mixed. I don’t think anyone is claiming ML will die off. But in my own experience, for every company with a healthy ML environment, there are dozens that are kind of just throwing money and data around without much success, or without even the type of problems ML can solve. And at many companies that do have a solid ML use case, you often have teams of data scientists looking to find new projects that justify their existence because the maintenance of existing ML products doesn’t take up capacity. ML will always be around, but it’s also definitely in a bubble right now in my opinion and there will likely be a contraction before the profession matures and gets to a healthy place.
  - mountainriver 4y ago

scarface74 4y ago

Torrenting is really inconvenient compared to streaming. Yes I had a Plex server set up that I could use from anywhere. It isn’t worth the hassle.