4 ms·

Argentina has experienced multiple rounds of hyperinflation due to failed monetary policy. Saying this story is a "lesson about the power of inflation" is like

by slg 5y ago

Argentina has experienced multiple rounds of hyperinflation due to failed monetary policy. Saying this story is a "lesson about the power of inflation" is like saying "the sun is hot". Yes, it certainly is, but it is so far beyond normal definitions of "hot" that people will have a hard time understanding it. This is more a story about the failures of Argentina's governments over the last 50 years than a story about inflation.

treeman79 5y ago
There are a lot of people that think we can print spend endless amounts of money without consequences. Heck an alarming amount of people don’t understand that bonds need to be paid back.
- UncleMeat 5y ago
  That's true, but there aren't a lot of these people in positions of great policy power.
  - sitkack 5y ago
    /s naaap!
- slg 5y ago
  I made that comment because I know people are going to use the linked example of what happened in Argentina as the predicted fate of what will happen in the US. That seems to be what you are implying here by drawing parallels between the two. But I simply want to make it clear that the US is at 8% inflation for the last year while Argentina spent decades with the average annual inflation rate measured in the hundreds. The two aren't close to the same.
  - koolba 5y ago
    > But I simply want to make it clear that the US is at 8% inflation for the last year while Argentina spent decades with the average annual inflation rate measured in the hundreds. The two aren't close to the same. “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
    - 542458 5y ago
      With all due respect, I feel the quote is a bit pithy here. Not all things which are gradual become sudden, and the quote doesn’t give any proof that this is one of those things.
    - slg 5y ago
      Well I guess I shouldn't spend money on food this week as that is a gradual step towards bankruptcy.
      - xtracto 5y ago
        On the contrary, investing in cans of beans may offer a great way to protect your wealth from inflation. They may be a non-deprecating asset.
  - frostwarrior 5y ago
    Yes. AFAIK inflation in Argentina is a chicken and egg problem. The government prints money, not to have more, but to force economic movement from below. More money handed through social welfare means more money in lower classes hands, and that means more people buying new things and local market activity. The government does that because most companies with the financial power to invest are be very reluctant to invest in a such unstable economy. Also, most individuals with more money will quickly move the cash somewhere abroad. So, companies don't invest and richer people are quick ot move their money elsewhere. If the government doesn't act, the economy stalls. But now because the government printed more money, the peso is now less valuable and the economy is now more unstable, feeding this feedback loop.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- rmatt2000 5y ago
  Not to mention the stunning number of people with college degrees who don't think loans should be paid back.
- OGWhales 5y ago
  > There are a lot of people that think we can print spend endless amounts of money without consequences. I’ve seen this said more than I’ve seen people who actually think that. Most people have heard horror stories of hyperinflation and, if anything, are overly weary of inflation than not. The comment above makes a good point. These types of hyperinflation situations are the result of serious mismanagement and deeper issues. When considering inflation, it’s important to study real resource constraints and any debts that need to be paid back in foreign currencies. All the famous examples of hyperinflation involve issues with these factors.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
marcodiego 5y ago
In 2011, while still at my first job, I spent a few days touring in Buenos Aires. At the time, 1 Brazilian Real was worth 2 Argentine Pesos. It was enough to feel like a rich there. About ten years later, 1 Brazilian Real is now worth more than 24 Argentine Pesos. Of course, during the same period, Brazil had some crisis too. So, it is much harder for me today to save enough to spend a few days in Buenos Aires. Sad.
H8crilA 5y ago
A lot of countries have experienced serious inflation at one point or usually multiple points in history - all countries that are not young (>300 years). It is not perfectly reasonable to expect that yours will not experience it during your lifetime, particularly if you're young. Volatility has this nasty property that it's only bounded from below, but not from above.
- napoleon_thepig 5y ago
  It's one thing to say that every country experiences inflation a few times in history, which might or might not be the case, depending on your definition of high inflation. Argentina's Consumer Price index rose 6.7% during March. No, not YoY, but MoM. And if you look at history, it's not even a particularly high number. So I'd say that by the definition of most people, the country has a very big, long lasting and structural problem with inflation.

by slg 5y ago

treeman79 5y ago

There are a lot of people that think we can print spend endless amounts of money without consequences. Heck an alarming amount of people don’t understand that bonds need to be paid back.

UncleMeat 5y ago
That's true, but there aren't a lot of these people in positions of great policy power.
- sitkack 5y ago
  /s naaap!
slg 5y ago
I made that comment because I know people are going to use the linked example of what happened in Argentina as the predicted fate of what will happen in the US. That seems to be what you are implying here by drawing parallels between the two. But I simply want to make it clear that the US is at 8% inflation for the last year while Argentina spent decades with the average annual inflation rate measured in the hundreds. The two aren't close to the same.
- koolba 5y ago
  > But I simply want to make it clear that the US is at 8% inflation for the last year while Argentina spent decades with the average annual inflation rate measured in the hundreds. The two aren't close to the same. “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
  - 542458 5y ago
    With all due respect, I feel the quote is a bit pithy here. Not all things which are gradual become sudden, and the quote doesn’t give any proof that this is one of those things.
  - slg 5y ago
    Well I guess I shouldn't spend money on food this week as that is a gradual step towards bankruptcy.
    - xtracto 5y ago
      On the contrary, investing in cans of beans may offer a great way to protect your wealth from inflation. They may be a non-deprecating asset.
- frostwarrior 5y ago
  Yes. AFAIK inflation in Argentina is a chicken and egg problem. The government prints money, not to have more, but to force economic movement from below. More money handed through social welfare means more money in lower classes hands, and that means more people buying new things and local market activity. The government does that because most companies with the financial power to invest are be very reluctant to invest in a such unstable economy. Also, most individuals with more money will quickly move the cash somewhere abroad. So, companies don't invest and richer people are quick ot move their money elsewhere. If the government doesn't act, the economy stalls. But now because the government printed more money, the peso is now less valuable and the economy is now more unstable, feeding this feedback loop.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rmatt2000 5y ago
Not to mention the stunning number of people with college degrees who don't think loans should be paid back.
OGWhales 5y ago
> There are a lot of people that think we can print spend endless amounts of money without consequences. I’ve seen this said more than I’ve seen people who actually think that. Most people have heard horror stories of hyperinflation and, if anything, are overly weary of inflation than not. The comment above makes a good point. These types of hyperinflation situations are the result of serious mismanagement and deeper issues. When considering inflation, it’s important to study real resource constraints and any debts that need to be paid back in foreign currencies. All the famous examples of hyperinflation involve issues with these factors.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

marcodiego 5y ago

In 2011, while still at my first job, I spent a few days touring in Buenos Aires. At the time, 1 Brazilian Real was worth 2 Argentine Pesos. It was enough to feel like a rich there. About ten years later, 1 Brazilian Real is now worth more than 24 Argentine Pesos. Of course, during the same period, Brazil had some crisis too. So, it is much harder for me today to save enough to spend a few days in Buenos Aires. Sad.

H8crilA 5y ago

A lot of countries have experienced serious inflation at one point or usually multiple points in history - all countries that are not young (>300 years). It is not perfectly reasonable to expect that yours will not experience it during your lifetime, particularly if you're young. Volatility has this nasty property that it's only bounded from below, but not from above.

napoleon_thepig 5y ago
It's one thing to say that every country experiences inflation a few times in history, which might or might not be the case, depending on your definition of high inflation. Argentina's Consumer Price index rose 6.7% during March. No, not YoY, but MoM. And if you look at history, it's not even a particularly high number. So I'd say that by the definition of most people, the country has a very big, long lasting and structural problem with inflation.