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I'd just like to add to this: I find it absolutely reprehensible that The White House is trying to blame this on Russia, even coining a phrase "the putin price

I'd just like to add to this: I find it absolutely reprehensible that The White House is trying to blame this on Russia, even coining a phrase "the putin price hike". Inflation is hurting Americans, and the war in Ukraine is killing Ukrainians. The idea that these people would try to use one of these things to advantage themselves politically instead of addressing the suffering that their policies are causing (and changing course) is reprehensible to me. There is a daily White House press briefing that I suggest everybody watch (you can 2x speed through it). Here is a link to today's: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07-AMwJbXQY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07-AMwJbXQY Just the way that they talk about this is so...vile. 8.5% inflation is a nightmare. You're in charge. Take ownership of that, and for the love of god stop trying to use the massacre of innocent people in Ukraine is a political tool for youself.

Consultant32452 5y ago
overtonwhy 5y ago
Wow a new account that's anti government with the immediate hot take getting voted to the top. How refreshing.
- thepasswordis 5y ago
  Our accounts are the same age.
cavisne 5y ago
There is 30T in government debt, and interest payments last year were ~500B/~6T of total spending. What impact would a 1% move have on these payments, is this public information? (ie. how much is fixed vs floating etc). Can the Fed even raise rates in an environment like that?
arcticbull 5y ago
So Russia provides a ton of oil. Oil is an input into basically everything you've ever owned. The instability and lack of supply of oil as a result of the war is driving an increase in the price of oil, which is driving an increase in the price of goods. An increase in the price of goods means a decrease in the purchasing power of the dollar. This is how inflation is calculated. Ergo, the Russians launching the war in Ukraine significantly contributes to inflation. Is it solely responsible? Of course not. Does it contribute? Oh most definitely.
- mise_en_place 5y ago
  I think 1.4 Trillion in asset purchases by the Fed has more to do with inflation than Russia invading Ukraine. You could make an argument it impacted wheat prices. But the oil market already priced the invasion in, it’s in backwardation with farther months trading lower and lower.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    There's really no basis to think that asset purchases are responsible for this. Asset prices didn't cause shipping prices across the pacific to explode almost 10X [2]. Asset purchases didn't cause the Port of LA to back up (ships still wait in port 18 days [3]). Asset purchases didn't cause a lack of supply of IC manufacturing [4], including due to bad weather. Asset purchases didn't cause COVID outbreaks [5]. Asset purchases didn't cause labor supply issues [6]. I agree the oil market is in backwardation, but this is retrospective CPI, not December 2023 CPI. [edit] Check out the graph on page 7 (11th page in the PDF) [1] It shows you just how little global central bank balance sheets are in terms of the market. It's less than 8.9% of global financial assets, and while it increased a lot recently (for obvious reasons) on average over the last 20 years it's not super dramatic. [1] https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P161221.pdf https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P161221.pdf [2] https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-container-freight-rates-have-surged https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-contain... [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/container-ship-backup-at-southern-california-ports-is-receding-11644523945 https://www.wsj.com/articles/container-ship-backup-at-southe... [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-pr... [5] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/china-covid-outbreak-guangzhou-closes-schools-shanghai-record-cases.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/china-covid-outbreak-guangzh... [6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/long-covid-labor-market-missing-workers/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/long-covid-labor-market-missing...
moffkalast 5y ago
Well part of it is definitely caused by Putin or at least our response to his atrocities, but wasn't something of this sort definitely expected in any case due to the absurdly high spending and economic cratering that covid has caused worldwide? Do you think the US is alone in these hikes? The Eurozone is also showing very similar rates. It's unlikely to be something one country can fix by itself.
misiti3780 5y ago
It really does suck, but when the choice is between Biden and Trump, two totally incompetent leaders, you cant expect much better. The US already has a law that requires the minimum age of the president (35). They should change the law and add a maximum age set to ~65. Could solve a lot of our problems.
- txsoftwaredev 5y ago
  Based on just the current state of the economy I would LOVE to have Trump back in office.
  - qqqwerty 5y ago
    Trump pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates low is exactly why we are in this mess in the first place. Had he done the responsible thing and allowed the Fed to raise rates while the economy was hot, then we would have had more wiggle room when covid hit. If you truly think Trump could resolve this issue, then please explain exactly what he would do to resolve it. I hate to break it to you, but more liberal tears are not a solution to higher inflation.
    - thehappypm 5y ago
      Trump lowered interest rates to near 0%, what are you talking about exactly?
      - JoeAltmaier 5y ago
        Just wrong. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187616/effective-rate-of-us-federal-funds-monthly/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/187616/effective-rate-of...
        thehappypm 5y ago
        …
        5y ago
aarontait 5y ago
The Federal Reserve, which is almost completely independent from the federal government, is the biggest player in regards to controlling inflation. In reality, POTUS doesn't have effective levers for controlling general inflation. However, I agree that their messaging has been absolutely horrible. They could at least create the appearance of doing something about it instead of just dismissing it as the Putin price hike.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > The Federal Reserve, which is almost completely independent from the federal government, is the biggest player in regards to controlling inflation. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an executive agency of the federal government that is “independent” within government in the same sense as, say, the FCC, and not at all independent from the government, is actually the relevant actor in inflation-control policy.
  - aarontait 5y ago
    Aside from appointing governors, what power does the president have over the federal reserve board? The president can direct/order the FCC to pursue a course of action, but as far as I'm aware, the president doesn't have executive authority over the fed's monetary policy.
memish 5y ago
That phrase sounds like something McKinsey would come up with. Does the White House use McKinsey? Serious question.
- TameAntelope 5y ago
  There are absolutely former big3 folks working in the current administration, I for a fact know of two.
- xadhominemx 5y ago
  It’s a catchy political catch phrase man. It’s literally a multi-thousand year old tradition.
sixothree 5y ago
You do realize inflation is currently a global issue, and not something completely isolated and controllable by the United States, right?
shmatt 5y ago
So I guess some Americans do think the U.S is just a single isolated bubble in the world Is this also your take on the car shortage? The fact people are paying 40% higher prices on used cars? Is your official response to that - Hey, theres a chip shortage in Asia, but who cares? you're in charge! start making the cars without the chips!! start making chips at home!! vroom vroom!!
- matheusmoreira 5y ago
  > start making chips at home!! This is what every country should do. Reduces interdependency and foments high tech industry.
- makomk 5y ago
  People blame the UK government for the fact that the same thing is happening here, and we're a lot smaller and more tightly connected to other countries than the US is. Of course people in the US are going to think their government is to blame and dismiss what's happening in the rest of the world; the US is big enough that people can easily just never leave it, and it's a lot more realistic for them to be self-sufficient.
curiousgeorgio 5y ago
Why, of course it's Russia's fault. Couldn't be related to this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL [1] /s [1] Keep in mind, the effects of these changes are often not felt in everyday prices for at least 1-2 years.
- butlerm 5y ago
  M2 includes M1 and it did not move nearly as much, suggesting that the nominal change in M1 was much larger than the part which had real economic consequences. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
  - curiousgeorgio 5y ago
    Any significant feature in a data set is going to look (relatively) smaller when you include that in a much larger data set. You can argue that M2 is more relevant to inflation (I'd disagree), but it doesn't change the fact that M1 has seen drastic increases. Time will tell how much effect this has on inflation, but it's odd that so many of the people complaining about inflation insist that it must be related to anything but the increase in money supply.
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  The m1 graph is incredibly misleading to the point of bad faith IMO because they changed the definition, causing the spike in April 2020. The M2 graph https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS still shows that the monetary base is expanding (less drastically) without effectively lying.
  - curiousgeorgio 5y ago
    Even putting the graph aside, could we really expect anything other than high inflation when the U.S. gov't has been injecting trillions (much of which is deficit spending) into the economy for the past couple of years?
TameAntelope 5y ago
I agree w/r/t how absolutely... childish... the word choice is, and I think folks trying to argue the merits here are missing the point. Yes, Putin's individual actions in Ukraine have had a negative effect on the global economy, and yes that negative effect is creating additional inflation, but "putin price hike" is so obviously a sound-bite crafted explicitly to trick voters into not "blaming" the current administration. I voted for Biden because I wanted an adult in the Oval Office, and an adult doesn't talk like that, in my opinion. I understand why it can feel necessary to talk like this, but you give up the high ground by doing so, and I think that's a mistake.
- hintymad 5y ago
  I didn't vote for anyone last year. When I watched the talks given by Biden in 80s, 90s, and 2000s on foreign policies, on racial issues, and on education, and I found him repulsive and couldn't believe the projected image of him being "nice grandpa", "adult", or "moderate".
  - TameAntelope 5y ago
    Eh, I think of "I didn't vote" as a pretty antagonistic position to take at this point in our democracy. I personally wish we had mandatory voting laws like in AUS.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    "Not an out-and-out grifter" is what carries the day, lately, on a good day. We are left to pray for such good days.
    - uoaei 5y ago
      Many, many names on the ballot in 2020 fit that description. Electoral reform (approval voting ftw, I don't get the obsession with ranked-choice) is a crucial part of the solution to these problems, but mandatory voting is completely stupid if you keep first-past-the-post. That would only serve to enshrine the spoiler effect in law as an inevitability in US politics forevermore. Great for anyone who gets paid by DNC or RNC, terrible for literally everyone else.
cheriot 5y ago
> Just the way that they talk about this is so...vile. 8.5% inflation is a nightmare. You're in charge. Take ownership of that, and for the love of god stop trying to use the massacre of innocent people in Ukraine is a political tool for youself. 1. The President of the United States does not control inflation, the price of oil, the price of CPUs, the price of new and used cars, or the ports that are backed up. People ask a glib question and get a glib answer. 2. What war in all of human history was not politicized? This really should not be surprising. I get not liking politics, but being outraged at the state of the world and directing that at whichever politician is in office... is not useful unless you're playing politics yourself.
- tenpies 5y ago
  > 1. The President of the United States does not control inflation, the price of oil, the price of CPUs, the price of new and used cars, or the ports that are backed up. People ask a glib question and get a glib answer. Except he does. Sure he is not holding a dial labeled "inflation", but he led a tsunami of poorly thought out policy, wasteful spending, and virtue-signalling. Even if you lay aside how he was actively demonizing O&G before winning the election, his first action as POTUS was literally to cancel an oil pipeline. Transport costs are a factor in oil prices, you cannot pretend they aren't.
  - ryukafalz 5y ago
    You do remember we have a climate crisis on our hands right now too, right? We need to be bringing more nuclear and renewable capacity online, not doubling down on fossil fuels.
    - jcadam 5y ago
      There's a simpler solution to your "climate crisis" if you have no conscience. What do you think is happening right now?
  - diob 5y ago
    Someone forgot who was in charge that handed out all the cash in 2020. . . It's pretty easy to see how we have inflation given they gave out all those impossible to trace ppp loans to their friends and family.
maerF0x0 5y ago
> Inflation is hurting Americans This is a nuanced thing tbh. Anyone with a lot of debt (eg lots of student loan debt) actually benefits from inflation. Inflation is hurting _fixed income and currency holders_
- butlerm 5y ago
  Almost anyone with a wage, salary, or rate that doesn't trivially adjust is hurt by inflation - unless of course they have more than enough debt to make up for all of that.
- thehappypm 5y ago
  I’m not sure why you’re being downvoted because it’s true. I bought a house in 2021 with a 2.6% mortgage interest rate. Inflation is making my payment more affordable in real terms.
- matheusmoreira 5y ago
  Yes. Inflation hurts anyone trying to accumulate any amount money. They're better off spending it as soon as possible. Much harder to get rich by saving money now and it's not like corporations are in a rush to give matching raises to workers.
  - seoaeu 5y ago
    > Much harder to get rich by saving money now No one was getting rich by saving money with interest rates basically zero and the stock market posting record returns. > it's not like corporations are in a rush to give matching raises to workers. Inflation is nearly at a 50 year low. Corporations that want to fill their hiring targets are giving raises
    - maerF0x0 5y ago
      > Inflation is nearly at a 50 year low. I think this is a typo?
  - maerF0x0 5y ago
gumby 5y ago
Inflation at the moment is a global phenomenon. It’s hard to see how any US policy can be responsible for that, except at the margins.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Inflation is dead in China.
  - gumby 5y ago
    Nice example: inflation in China is the same as in the USA: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/chinas-producer-and-consumer-inflation-rose-faster-than-expected-in-march.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/chinas-producer-and-consumer...
hintymad 5y ago
Yet multiple media simply repeats the talk point of The White House. Serious question: I wonder why journalists are so aligned with the assessment.
nodesocket 5y ago
Thank you. I'm glad I'm not the only one who is outraged about this. This has little if not zero to with Russia and more about the current administration's horrific economic and fiscal policies. Just last week they extended the delay on student loan debt repayment? Why in heck? That leaves more money in people's pockets to go out and buy and spend. Let's stop with this Covid charade of outlandish government spending on programs that we don't need. In reality Covid is a prop to push through liberal fiscal policies. Another example; the current administration pushing hard for Union's at Amazon and Tesla. Once again, rising wages is not the policy that helps reduce inflation. It's literally econ 101; "to make up for the increase in cost, companies must charge more for their goods and services to maintain the same level of profitability."
- Bud 5y ago
  Which "horrific" economic and fiscal policies, specifically, do you assert are responsible for the current inflation? Please cite specifics, with sources. As an aside, your assertion about covid is utterly ludicrous.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - nodesocket 5y ago
    Besides the student loan payment delay, pushing for higher wages, and unionizing, which I already cited I’ll leave a few big ones. Starting with the first calamity. Biden’s American Rescue Plan. $1.9 trillion dollars completely unneeded, only done for political reasons. In the name of Covid, pushed through absurd welfare programs. It’s like cashing in $5 chips at the casino for $100 loses down the line. Enacting regulation to limit US production of oil and stopping the keystone pipeline. Under Trump the united states was energy independent and also for the first time in 75 years a net exporter or oil. Thank god Biden’s build back better plan is being held up. Another outrageous case of spending that will throw gasoline onto the raging fire. Perhaps would be the last nail in the coffin.
    - 5y ago
hintymad 5y ago
This is a graph of US inflation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Inflation_data.webp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Inflation_data.webp. I fail to see how this inflation is "the Putin price hike". And what happened in 2021 Jan?
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  > And what happened in 2021 Jan? People started getting vaccinated and returning to normal? I know a few people got it in december, but January is when things really ramped up.
- memish 5y ago
  "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
karmasimida 5y ago
But this is partly on Putin right? If he didn't attack the oil price won't go increase further.
- bufferoverflow 5y ago
  Look at the oil prices right before the war vs right now. Almost the same.
ncmncm 5y ago
My threshold for what must be considered reprehensible White House activity has shifted by an alarming degree over the past 5 years. Under current conditions, this is just politics. I was never impressed with Biden's integrity, and this does not change my estimation, but anything that might help keep out-and-out grifters out of government is looking like a win, nowadays. The perfect is the enemy of the good, but likewise the not-great is the enemy of the disastrous. That's where we are now.
Bud 5y ago
This comment is completely slanted and unjustified. Accurately characterizing this inflation as being partly the result of disruption in the oil markets caused by the war in Ukraine is emphatically not the same as taking political "advantage". It's simply a statement of fact. Not a "political tool". I think you have an axe to grind and have decided that the Biden Administration would be a nice sharpening stone.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mhitza 5y ago
It happens everywhere. In Romania the media quickly spinned the story of inflation to the war in Ukraine. Even when our current national bank director stated in early January that'll we'll reach double digit measured[1] inflation by summer. [1] felt the need to emphasis measured because they changed the way inflation is measured last November, to probably show politically better numbers going forward.
odonnellryan 5y ago
Inflation will kill Americans. It may kill more Americans than Ukrainians due to the war. That's hard to say but inflation has a strong correlation with increased mortality rates.
- oneoff786 5y ago
  By what mechanism will a small bump to inflation kill more Americans than the number of casualties in Ukraine?
  - _clhx 5y ago
    "A 1% rise in inflation rate was associated with significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 4 population health outcomes, with the largest deterioration in male adult mortality rate (0.0033 rise per 1000 deaths)." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4716201/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4716201/ Additional reading here: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.851388/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.8513... I'm not going to make the argument that more people in the US will die b/c of inflation than the war in Ukraine: that is really insensitive. I'm just highlighting the fallacy of "oh some people have it worse, you can't complain!" When you include the reduced life expectancy of people in Ukraine due to war it will be a lot higher :( Without even extrapolating to higher inflation rates, I think this works out to an additional 10k deaths due to inflation? I would not call this a "small bump" and I am the opposite of the "sky is falling due to inflation!" crowd - just trying to be grounded. It is a fairly big bump.
    - oneoff786 5y ago
      I’m not convinced a regression of 21 Latin American countries is representative of the United States personally. Sure, it’ll have some effect. But even 3 per thousand seems extreme to me.
ajross 5y ago
> the suffering that their policies are causing Not sure what policies you're talking about here? Most of the current inflation drive is (1) a spike to petroleum markets which is impacting shipping speculation (you handwave it away, but yes: this is the biggest current factor), (2) the reheating of the consumption economy in the wake of the pandemic, (3) the slower ramping of the production economy to compensate (c.f. chip shortage), (4) the tail end of the pandemic savings boom caused by in hindsight very generous temporary benefits. Of those factors, only one is an issue of US government policy. And it was wildly popular, almost 100% bipartisan, and passed during the prior administration. To wit: in your horror that the Biden administration would blame inflation on Putin, you seem to be rushing to blame inflation on the Biden administration with even less justification! It's topical right now because of a discussion yesterday, but... basically, I'm not completely convinced your argument is being made in Good Faith.
jollybean 5y ago
The war in Ukraine is a fundamental driver of inflation. The other is COVID hangover from money printing and screwed up supply chain. It's perfectly responsible to highlight the factors that are driving it. If Biden was lying, it'd be another thing, but he's not. It's perfectly fair populism. Putin kicked of a war that is having massive repercussions that are just beginning. You have Ukranian sympathy, but are you willing to pay 2x heating bill next winter? Because Germans are going to have to face that, and their sympathy for Ukraine might plummet, there could be riots. Those are the kinds of things that cause revolutions.
Lendal 5y ago
Much has been made about the Russian oil & gas situation and how it affects the prices of every product or service produced downstream of it. Here's something you might not know. Russia produces 86 billion tons of wheat, Ukraine 25 billion tons of wheat annually. Only China produces more. The yellow in Ukraine's flag symbolizes wheat, it's that important. Much of Russia's wheat has been cut and 100% of Ukraine's wheat shipments have been cut from the world supply. Several countries get almost all their wheat from one of Russia or Ukraine. Not only are their prices skyrocketing, but famine is inevitable. It is coming. Inflation is only the beginning. Famine is the oncoming train, and people have the balls to complain about prices. Just wait. Those countries are going to try and buy US or Canadian wheat, driving up prices yet again. You're free to complain about politics, but war is now the primary driver of inflation, whether you believe it's politically correct or not.
- jcadam 5y ago
  Rationing is coming, guaranteed.
- zacharytelschow 5y ago
  > war is now the primary driver of inflation “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” -- Milton Friedman All else being equal, a rise in the price of wheat or oil would necessitate a decrease in the price of other goods as more money than previously is spent on those particular goods. If you spend more money on gas, you'll have to spend less on something else. The only way [wheat+gas+etc] and all other goods can rise is if there's more money created to chase those goods.
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  Pestilence, War, Famine, Death.
jcadam 5y ago
And even that 8.5% number is heavily manipulated. Just like the unemployment rate.
- jcadam 5y ago
  For the downvoters: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
hereforphone 5y ago
Those of us who have lived through several administrations, and who aren't ultra-partisan, realize that this would play out much differently in the (traditional and social) media if it were to occur under a conservative administration.
hatware 5y ago
Everything is Russia's fault, haven't you been watching the NEWS?
belter 5y ago
Want to blame somebody, blame these guys: https://www.federalreserve.gov/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/
hahaxdxd123 5y ago
Yeah, it isn't like there are similar historically high inflation rates in the UK or Germany or the rest of the world. Nope. Biden's fault...
webXL 5y ago
I highly recommend YouTube Comment Search[1]. I just searched for "hike" and got three Putin Price Hike quips from Psaki (yesterday's brief). The masses are being programmed to look away from monetary policy. The last time an invasion caused oil prices to soar, we didn't get 8.5% inflation! 1. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ycs-youtube-comment-searc/pmfhcilikeembgbiadjiojgfgcfbcoaa https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ycs-youtube-commen... edit: my search was on yesterday's press briefing
RickJWagner 5y ago
It's worth noting that the government has 3 primary tools for dealing with the burden of debt. (Debt brings with it interest payments, reducing the effectiveness of government.) 1) Tax increases. Political poison. 2) Reductions in entitlements. Unpopular with many (depending on which entitlements are reduced.) 3) Inflation. Sometimes nearly invisible, it only becomes politically dangerous when it's a good deal above average and in the public eye. (We are there now.)
icedistilled 5y ago
Biden caused global inflation? Biden can fix global inflation? It's fun to scapegoat and cathartic. But it's counter productive and inaccurate. I seem to remember money printing and pressure to keep fed rates low even before biden, not to mention the pandemic chaos that has jacked up price world wide. It's simpler to blame whoever is currently in the spotlight though and feels so good.

Consultant32452 5y ago

overtonwhy 5y ago

Wow a new account that's anti government with the immediate hot take getting voted to the top. How refreshing.

thepasswordis 5y ago
Our accounts are the same age.

cavisne 5y ago

There is 30T in government debt, and interest payments last year were ~500B/~6T of total spending. What impact would a 1% move have on these payments, is this public information? (ie. how much is fixed vs floating etc). Can the Fed even raise rates in an environment like that?

arcticbull 5y ago

So Russia provides a ton of oil. Oil is an input into basically everything you've ever owned. The instability and lack of supply of oil as a result of the war is driving an increase in the price of oil, which is driving an increase in the price of goods. An increase in the price of goods means a decrease in the purchasing power of the dollar. This is how inflation is calculated. Ergo, the Russians launching the war in Ukraine significantly contributes to inflation. Is it solely responsible? Of course not. Does it contribute? Oh most definitely.

mise_en_place 5y ago
I think 1.4 Trillion in asset purchases by the Fed has more to do with inflation than Russia invading Ukraine. You could make an argument it impacted wheat prices. But the oil market already priced the invasion in, it’s in backwardation with farther months trading lower and lower.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  There's really no basis to think that asset purchases are responsible for this. Asset prices didn't cause shipping prices across the pacific to explode almost 10X [2]. Asset purchases didn't cause the Port of LA to back up (ships still wait in port 18 days [3]). Asset purchases didn't cause a lack of supply of IC manufacturing [4], including due to bad weather. Asset purchases didn't cause COVID outbreaks [5]. Asset purchases didn't cause labor supply issues [6]. I agree the oil market is in backwardation, but this is retrospective CPI, not December 2023 CPI. [edit] Check out the graph on page 7 (11th page in the PDF) [1] It shows you just how little global central bank balance sheets are in terms of the market. It's less than 8.9% of global financial assets, and while it increased a lot recently (for obvious reasons) on average over the last 20 years it's not super dramatic. [1] https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P161221.pdf https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P161221.pdf [2] https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-container-freight-rates-have-surged https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-contain... [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/container-ship-backup-at-southern-california-ports-is-receding-11644523945 https://www.wsj.com/articles/container-ship-backup-at-southe... [4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-pr... [5] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/china-covid-outbreak-guangzhou-closes-schools-shanghai-record-cases.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/china-covid-outbreak-guangzh... [6] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/long-covid-labor-market-missing-workers/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/long-covid-labor-market-missing...

moffkalast 5y ago

Well part of it is definitely caused by Putin or at least our response to his atrocities, but wasn't something of this sort definitely expected in any case due to the absurdly high spending and economic cratering that covid has caused worldwide? Do you think the US is alone in these hikes? The Eurozone is also showing very similar rates. It's unlikely to be something one country can fix by itself.

misiti3780 5y ago

It really does suck, but when the choice is between Biden and Trump, two totally incompetent leaders, you cant expect much better. The US already has a law that requires the minimum age of the president (35). They should change the law and add a maximum age set to ~65. Could solve a lot of our problems.

txsoftwaredev 5y ago
Based on just the current state of the economy I would LOVE to have Trump back in office.
- qqqwerty 5y ago
  Trump pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates low is exactly why we are in this mess in the first place. Had he done the responsible thing and allowed the Fed to raise rates while the economy was hot, then we would have had more wiggle room when covid hit. If you truly think Trump could resolve this issue, then please explain exactly what he would do to resolve it. I hate to break it to you, but more liberal tears are not a solution to higher inflation.
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    Trump lowered interest rates to near 0%, what are you talking about exactly?
    - JoeAltmaier 5y ago
      Just wrong. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187616/effective-rate-of-us-federal-funds-monthly/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/187616/effective-rate-of...
      - thehappypm 5y ago
        …
      - 5y ago

aarontait 5y ago

The Federal Reserve, which is almost completely independent from the federal government, is the biggest player in regards to controlling inflation. In reality, POTUS doesn't have effective levers for controlling general inflation. However, I agree that their messaging has been absolutely horrible. They could at least create the appearance of doing something about it instead of just dismissing it as the Putin price hike.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> The Federal Reserve, which is almost completely independent from the federal government, is the biggest player in regards to controlling inflation. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an executive agency of the federal government that is “independent” within government in the same sense as, say, the FCC, and not at all independent from the government, is actually the relevant actor in inflation-control policy.
- aarontait 5y ago
  Aside from appointing governors, what power does the president have over the federal reserve board? The president can direct/order the FCC to pursue a course of action, but as far as I'm aware, the president doesn't have executive authority over the fed's monetary policy.

memish 5y ago

That phrase sounds like something McKinsey would come up with. Does the White House use McKinsey? Serious question.

TameAntelope 5y ago
There are absolutely former big3 folks working in the current administration, I for a fact know of two.
xadhominemx 5y ago
It’s a catchy political catch phrase man. It’s literally a multi-thousand year old tradition.

sixothree 5y ago

You do realize inflation is currently a global issue, and not something completely isolated and controllable by the United States, right?

shmatt 5y ago

So I guess some Americans do think the U.S is just a single isolated bubble in the world Is this also your take on the car shortage? The fact people are paying 40% higher prices on used cars? Is your official response to that - Hey, theres a chip shortage in Asia, but who cares? you're in charge! start making the cars without the chips!! start making chips at home!! vroom vroom!!

matheusmoreira 5y ago
> start making chips at home!! This is what every country should do. Reduces interdependency and foments high tech industry.
makomk 5y ago
People blame the UK government for the fact that the same thing is happening here, and we're a lot smaller and more tightly connected to other countries than the US is. Of course people in the US are going to think their government is to blame and dismiss what's happening in the rest of the world; the US is big enough that people can easily just never leave it, and it's a lot more realistic for them to be self-sufficient.

curiousgeorgio 5y ago

Why, of course it's Russia's fault. Couldn't be related to this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL [1] /s [1] Keep in mind, the effects of these changes are often not felt in everyday prices for at least 1-2 years.

butlerm 5y ago
M2 includes M1 and it did not move nearly as much, suggesting that the nominal change in M1 was much larger than the part which had real economic consequences. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
- curiousgeorgio 5y ago
  Any significant feature in a data set is going to look (relatively) smaller when you include that in a much larger data set. You can argue that M2 is more relevant to inflation (I'd disagree), but it doesn't change the fact that M1 has seen drastic increases. Time will tell how much effect this has on inflation, but it's odd that so many of the people complaining about inflation insist that it must be related to anything but the increase in money supply.
colinmhayes 5y ago
The m1 graph is incredibly misleading to the point of bad faith IMO because they changed the definition, causing the spike in April 2020. The M2 graph https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS still shows that the monetary base is expanding (less drastically) without effectively lying.
- curiousgeorgio 5y ago
  Even putting the graph aside, could we really expect anything other than high inflation when the U.S. gov't has been injecting trillions (much of which is deficit spending) into the economy for the past couple of years?

TameAntelope 5y ago

I agree w/r/t how absolutely... childish... the word choice is, and I think folks trying to argue the merits here are missing the point. Yes, Putin's individual actions in Ukraine have had a negative effect on the global economy, and yes that negative effect is creating additional inflation, but "putin price hike" is so obviously a sound-bite crafted explicitly to trick voters into not "blaming" the current administration. I voted for Biden because I wanted an adult in the Oval Office, and an adult doesn't talk like that, in my opinion. I understand why it can feel necessary to talk like this, but you give up the high ground by doing so, and I think that's a mistake.

hintymad 5y ago
I didn't vote for anyone last year. When I watched the talks given by Biden in 80s, 90s, and 2000s on foreign policies, on racial issues, and on education, and I found him repulsive and couldn't believe the projected image of him being "nice grandpa", "adult", or "moderate".
- TameAntelope 5y ago
  Eh, I think of "I didn't vote" as a pretty antagonistic position to take at this point in our democracy. I personally wish we had mandatory voting laws like in AUS.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  "Not an out-and-out grifter" is what carries the day, lately, on a good day. We are left to pray for such good days.
  - uoaei 5y ago
    Many, many names on the ballot in 2020 fit that description. Electoral reform (approval voting ftw, I don't get the obsession with ranked-choice) is a crucial part of the solution to these problems, but mandatory voting is completely stupid if you keep first-past-the-post. That would only serve to enshrine the spoiler effect in law as an inevitability in US politics forevermore. Great for anyone who gets paid by DNC or RNC, terrible for literally everyone else.

cheriot 5y ago

> Just the way that they talk about this is so...vile. 8.5% inflation is a nightmare. You're in charge. Take ownership of that, and for the love of god stop trying to use the massacre of innocent people in Ukraine is a political tool for youself. 1. The President of the United States does not control inflation, the price of oil, the price of CPUs, the price of new and used cars, or the ports that are backed up. People ask a glib question and get a glib answer. 2. What war in all of human history was not politicized? This really should not be surprising. I get not liking politics, but being outraged at the state of the world and directing that at whichever politician is in office... is not useful unless you're playing politics yourself.

tenpies 5y ago
> 1. The President of the United States does not control inflation, the price of oil, the price of CPUs, the price of new and used cars, or the ports that are backed up. People ask a glib question and get a glib answer. Except he does. Sure he is not holding a dial labeled "inflation", but he led a tsunami of poorly thought out policy, wasteful spending, and virtue-signalling. Even if you lay aside how he was actively demonizing O&G before winning the election, his first action as POTUS was literally to cancel an oil pipeline. Transport costs are a factor in oil prices, you cannot pretend they aren't.
- ryukafalz 5y ago
  You do remember we have a climate crisis on our hands right now too, right? We need to be bringing more nuclear and renewable capacity online, not doubling down on fossil fuels.
  - jcadam 5y ago
    There's a simpler solution to your "climate crisis" if you have no conscience. What do you think is happening right now?
- diob 5y ago
  Someone forgot who was in charge that handed out all the cash in 2020. . . It's pretty easy to see how we have inflation given they gave out all those impossible to trace ppp loans to their friends and family.

maerF0x0 5y ago

> Inflation is hurting Americans This is a nuanced thing tbh. Anyone with a lot of debt (eg lots of student loan debt) actually benefits from inflation. Inflation is hurting _fixed income and currency holders_

butlerm 5y ago
Almost anyone with a wage, salary, or rate that doesn't trivially adjust is hurt by inflation - unless of course they have more than enough debt to make up for all of that.
thehappypm 5y ago
I’m not sure why you’re being downvoted because it’s true. I bought a house in 2021 with a 2.6% mortgage interest rate. Inflation is making my payment more affordable in real terms.
matheusmoreira 5y ago
Yes. Inflation hurts anyone trying to accumulate any amount money. They're better off spending it as soon as possible. Much harder to get rich by saving money now and it's not like corporations are in a rush to give matching raises to workers.
- seoaeu 5y ago
  > Much harder to get rich by saving money now No one was getting rich by saving money with interest rates basically zero and the stock market posting record returns. > it's not like corporations are in a rush to give matching raises to workers. Inflation is nearly at a 50 year low. Corporations that want to fill their hiring targets are giving raises
  - maerF0x0 5y ago
    > Inflation is nearly at a 50 year low. I think this is a typo?
- maerF0x0 5y ago

gumby 5y ago

Inflation at the moment is a global phenomenon. It’s hard to see how any US policy can be responsible for that, except at the margins.

imtringued 5y ago
Inflation is dead in China.
- gumby 5y ago
  Nice example: inflation in China is the same as in the USA: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/chinas-producer-and-consumer-inflation-rose-faster-than-expected-in-march.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/chinas-producer-and-consumer...

hintymad 5y ago

Yet multiple media simply repeats the talk point of The White House. Serious question: I wonder why journalists are so aligned with the assessment.

nodesocket 5y ago

Thank you. I'm glad I'm not the only one who is outraged about this. This has little if not zero to with Russia and more about the current administration's horrific economic and fiscal policies. Just last week they extended the delay on student loan debt repayment? Why in heck? That leaves more money in people's pockets to go out and buy and spend. Let's stop with this Covid charade of outlandish government spending on programs that we don't need. In reality Covid is a prop to push through liberal fiscal policies. Another example; the current administration pushing hard for Union's at Amazon and Tesla. Once again, rising wages is not the policy that helps reduce inflation. It's literally econ 101; "to make up for the increase in cost, companies must charge more for their goods and services to maintain the same level of profitability."

Bud 5y ago
Which "horrific" economic and fiscal policies, specifically, do you assert are responsible for the current inflation? Please cite specifics, with sources. As an aside, your assertion about covid is utterly ludicrous.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nodesocket 5y ago
  Besides the student loan payment delay, pushing for higher wages, and unionizing, which I already cited I’ll leave a few big ones. Starting with the first calamity. Biden’s American Rescue Plan. $1.9 trillion dollars completely unneeded, only done for political reasons. In the name of Covid, pushed through absurd welfare programs. It’s like cashing in $5 chips at the casino for $100 loses down the line. Enacting regulation to limit US production of oil and stopping the keystone pipeline. Under Trump the united states was energy independent and also for the first time in 75 years a net exporter or oil. Thank god Biden’s build back better plan is being held up. Another outrageous case of spending that will throw gasoline onto the raging fire. Perhaps would be the last nail in the coffin.
  - 5y ago

hintymad 5y ago

This is a graph of US inflation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Inflation_data.webp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Inflation_data.webp. I fail to see how this inflation is "the Putin price hike". And what happened in 2021 Jan?

colinmhayes 5y ago
> And what happened in 2021 Jan? People started getting vaccinated and returning to normal? I know a few people got it in december, but January is when things really ramped up.
memish 5y ago
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

karmasimida 5y ago

But this is partly on Putin right? If he didn't attack the oil price won't go increase further.

bufferoverflow 5y ago
Look at the oil prices right before the war vs right now. Almost the same.

ncmncm 5y ago

My threshold for what must be considered reprehensible White House activity has shifted by an alarming degree over the past 5 years. Under current conditions, this is just politics. I was never impressed with Biden's integrity, and this does not change my estimation, but anything that might help keep out-and-out grifters out of government is looking like a win, nowadays. The perfect is the enemy of the good, but likewise the not-great is the enemy of the disastrous. That's where we are now.

Bud 5y ago

This comment is completely slanted and unjustified. Accurately characterizing this inflation as being partly the result of disruption in the oil markets caused by the war in Ukraine is emphatically not the same as taking political "advantage". It's simply a statement of fact. Not a "political tool". I think you have an axe to grind and have decided that the Biden Administration would be a nice sharpening stone.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

mhitza 5y ago

It happens everywhere. In Romania the media quickly spinned the story of inflation to the war in Ukraine. Even when our current national bank director stated in early January that'll we'll reach double digit measured[1] inflation by summer. [1] felt the need to emphasis measured because they changed the way inflation is measured last November, to probably show politically better numbers going forward.

odonnellryan 5y ago

Inflation will kill Americans. It may kill more Americans than Ukrainians due to the war. That's hard to say but inflation has a strong correlation with increased mortality rates.

oneoff786 5y ago
By what mechanism will a small bump to inflation kill more Americans than the number of casualties in Ukraine?
- _clhx 5y ago
  "A 1% rise in inflation rate was associated with significant deteriorations (p<0.05) in 4 population health outcomes, with the largest deterioration in male adult mortality rate (0.0033 rise per 1000 deaths)." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4716201/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4716201/ Additional reading here: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.851388/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.8513... I'm not going to make the argument that more people in the US will die b/c of inflation than the war in Ukraine: that is really insensitive. I'm just highlighting the fallacy of "oh some people have it worse, you can't complain!" When you include the reduced life expectancy of people in Ukraine due to war it will be a lot higher :( Without even extrapolating to higher inflation rates, I think this works out to an additional 10k deaths due to inflation? I would not call this a "small bump" and I am the opposite of the "sky is falling due to inflation!" crowd - just trying to be grounded. It is a fairly big bump.
  - oneoff786 5y ago
    I’m not convinced a regression of 21 Latin American countries is representative of the United States personally. Sure, it’ll have some effect. But even 3 per thousand seems extreme to me.

ajross 5y ago

> the suffering that their policies are causing Not sure what policies you're talking about here? Most of the current inflation drive is (1) a spike to petroleum markets which is impacting shipping speculation (you handwave it away, but yes: this is the biggest current factor), (2) the reheating of the consumption economy in the wake of the pandemic, (3) the slower ramping of the production economy to compensate (c.f. chip shortage), (4) the tail end of the pandemic savings boom caused by in hindsight very generous temporary benefits. Of those factors, only one is an issue of US government policy. And it was wildly popular, almost 100% bipartisan, and passed during the prior administration. To wit: in your horror that the Biden administration would blame inflation on Putin, you seem to be rushing to blame inflation on the Biden administration with even less justification! It's topical right now because of a discussion yesterday, but... basically, I'm not completely convinced your argument is being made in Good Faith.

jollybean 5y ago

The war in Ukraine is a fundamental driver of inflation. The other is COVID hangover from money printing and screwed up supply chain. It's perfectly responsible to highlight the factors that are driving it. If Biden was lying, it'd be another thing, but he's not. It's perfectly fair populism. Putin kicked of a war that is having massive repercussions that are just beginning. You have Ukranian sympathy, but are you willing to pay 2x heating bill next winter? Because Germans are going to have to face that, and their sympathy for Ukraine might plummet, there could be riots. Those are the kinds of things that cause revolutions.

Lendal 5y ago

Much has been made about the Russian oil & gas situation and how it affects the prices of every product or service produced downstream of it. Here's something you might not know. Russia produces 86 billion tons of wheat, Ukraine 25 billion tons of wheat annually. Only China produces more. The yellow in Ukraine's flag symbolizes wheat, it's that important. Much of Russia's wheat has been cut and 100% of Ukraine's wheat shipments have been cut from the world supply. Several countries get almost all their wheat from one of Russia or Ukraine. Not only are their prices skyrocketing, but famine is inevitable. It is coming. Inflation is only the beginning. Famine is the oncoming train, and people have the balls to complain about prices. Just wait. Those countries are going to try and buy US or Canadian wheat, driving up prices yet again. You're free to complain about politics, but war is now the primary driver of inflation, whether you believe it's politically correct or not.

jcadam 5y ago
Rationing is coming, guaranteed.
zacharytelschow 5y ago
> war is now the primary driver of inflation “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” -- Milton Friedman All else being equal, a rise in the price of wheat or oil would necessitate a decrease in the price of other goods as more money than previously is spent on those particular goods. If you spend more money on gas, you'll have to spend less on something else. The only way [wheat+gas+etc] and all other goods can rise is if there's more money created to chase those goods.
somewhereoutth 5y ago
Pestilence, War, Famine, Death.

jcadam 5y ago

And even that 8.5% number is heavily manipulated. Just like the unemployment rate.

jcadam 5y ago
For the downvoters: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

hereforphone 5y ago

Those of us who have lived through several administrations, and who aren't ultra-partisan, realize that this would play out much differently in the (traditional and social) media if it were to occur under a conservative administration.

hatware 5y ago

Everything is Russia's fault, haven't you been watching the NEWS?

belter 5y ago

Want to blame somebody, blame these guys: https://www.federalreserve.gov/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/

hahaxdxd123 5y ago

Yeah, it isn't like there are similar historically high inflation rates in the UK or Germany or the rest of the world. Nope. Biden's fault...

webXL 5y ago

I highly recommend YouTube Comment Search[1]. I just searched for "hike" and got three Putin Price Hike quips from Psaki (yesterday's brief). The masses are being programmed to look away from monetary policy. The last time an invasion caused oil prices to soar, we didn't get 8.5% inflation! 1. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ycs-youtube-comment-searc/pmfhcilikeembgbiadjiojgfgcfbcoaa https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/ycs-youtube-commen... edit: my search was on yesterday's press briefing

RickJWagner 5y ago

It's worth noting that the government has 3 primary tools for dealing with the burden of debt. (Debt brings with it interest payments, reducing the effectiveness of government.) 1) Tax increases. Political poison. 2) Reductions in entitlements. Unpopular with many (depending on which entitlements are reduced.) 3) Inflation. Sometimes nearly invisible, it only becomes politically dangerous when it's a good deal above average and in the public eye. (We are there now.)

icedistilled 5y ago

Biden caused global inflation? Biden can fix global inflation? It's fun to scapegoat and cathartic. But it's counter productive and inaccurate. I seem to remember money printing and pressure to keep fed rates low even before biden, not to mention the pandemic chaos that has jacked up price world wide. It's simpler to blame whoever is currently in the spotlight though and feels so good.