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On the one hand, I think trucking can be a very lucrative career right now. On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job
by dcchambers 5y ago
On the one hand, I think trucking can be a very lucrative career right now.
On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. Trucking is limited almost entirely by the driver. Endurance (practically, but also legally) and stops for bathroom/food/gas, stops to sleep, etc. A self driving truck can go nonstop (gas/battery stops notwithstanding) for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Interstates and major highways will be the first roads that we see lots of automated driving on, as it's the easiest type of driving (no cross traffic, pedestrians, traffic lights, etC) and easy to map. I think there may always be a demand for highly skilled truck drivers (oversize and dangerous loads, navigating tight streets in the "last mile" of delivery, etc) but the folks pulling loads from oceanside ports to Walmart warehouses in the middle of the country are probably are among the first to get replaced.
It's also absolutey awful for your health. Full working days of sitting - you could say the same for office workers, but they have the ability to stand and stretch or go on small walks (eg to get water/coffee/bathroom break) as often as they need. Horrible food options on the road - mainly fast food and drinks full of sugar and caffeine. Little to no means to exercise. Hard to have a family or establish roots.
So yeah, in the short term you could make some good money, but I just don't see it as a long term career for a multitude of reasons.
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- teeray 5y ago> 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles In warm climates, yes, I’m sure it will. I’m more doubtful of this happening in snow country though.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 5y ago70% of the world lives in places where it never snows, and a full half of the U.S. population never experiences snow at home. "Self-driving cars can't expand to snowy areas" is a strange criticism of the business model.
- teeray 5y agoI would just like NYC to still receive their goods
- ThunderSizzle 5y agoThe target customers are the wealthy that can afford it. Where so they live?
- MegaButts 5y ago> On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. As someone who spent a good portion of his career in robotics and specifically self-driving cars (including the big companies with billions of dollars, not the me-too startups), I disagree. Most people aren't as cynical as me, but I left the field entirely. I doubt it will happen within the decade, at least in a way that's profitable. I'm skeptical it will happen within 25 years. It's not hard to demo the technology to convince people it's almost here (I should know, as I often helped stage the demos for investors). But self-driving cars have been 2 years away for almost a decade now. I really think it's similar to nuclear fusion. Some people might remember when Google put a blind man in a self-driving car as a promotion. That was over 10 years ago. I'm not saying there has been no progress, but there is still a giant chasm of unsolved problems before getting to the finish line. https://www.theverge.com/2012/3/29/2910196/google-self-driving-car-video https://www.theverge.com/2012/3/29/2910196/google-self-drivi... That said, I'm happy to be wrong.
- itake 5y agoHumans need to choose job families that will exist their entire working life (40-50 years). Even if the technology takes 30 years to develop, drivers will be 50 years old and forced into early retirement due to. I suspect that driver shortages will get worse before they get better, b/c if we are "25 years out" from self driving long haul trucks, ppl will shy away from that job category so they don't get caught jobless before they are ready to retire.
- flukus 5y agoAssuming you live somewhere that's somewhat affordable and self driving is a couple of decades off then 95k/year to follow the FIRE model.
- itake 5y agoVery very very very few people are both capable and interested in FIRE. Many software engineers could follow the FIRE model and retire before they are 40, but they choose to remain in the work force. Even FIRE bloggers don't actually FIRE. They continue to support their blog or get bored and return to the work force. Our brains are wired to "keep up with the Jone's".
- mhitza 5y ago> On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. Used to think that way (checks calendar) 7 years ago. I've seen what "top-notch" AI can do, it's failure rate, and lack of any form of corporate responsibility, to be doubtful.
- randomdata 5y agoNot to mention that the self-driving vehicle used for elevator travel has been readily available and reliable for over a century, yet we still hire elevator operators in niche situations. Even if self-driving truck tech was perfect, it's probably not going to 100% replace the job. There will always be some outlier situation where the human is needed and replacing one or two people is never worth enough to invest even more money into automating for that specific situation.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 5y agoI am 33 years old, decently well-traveled, and I'm not sure I've ever encountered an elevator operator where they were required. I've seen them in a couple spiffy places, but it felt like the establishment was trying to flex on the patrons by paying a well-dressed man to push a button for me. I've also seen elevator operators in old-timey historical buildings, but here it feels like the operator is employed just because the elevator has a museum-esque status. There are still people that know how to drive a horse and buggy as well - do you think this would be any consolation to the horse and buggy drivers of yesteryear?
- randomdata 5y ago> I've seen them in a couple spiffy places, but it felt like the establishment was trying to flex on the patrons by paying a well-dressed man to push a button for me. Or, more likely, the operator is doing something closer to the job of security guard under the guise of elevator operator. Which, as it happens, is a really nice fit for long haul trucker discussion. It is almost certain that at least some trips will demand someone to ride along if for no other reason than to care for the load. That would be fairly considered the job of a long haul trucker. But, if we want to say that 100% of elevator operator jobs have been eliminated and that people appearing as elevator operators today are really doing some other job (security guard, wealth flexer, museum curator), the idea of long haul trucker being the first to go at the hand of a self-driving vehicle as stated earlier doesn't jive.
- joe_the_user 5y agoAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median annual income for truck drivers in 2014 was $39,520. The bottom 10% of truck drivers earned a median of $25,740, while the top 10% brought home a median of $61,150. From a trucking website, truckers get a bare working class income. But truckers also have intense pressure to work many, many hours, trucking working conditions are effectively nothing to write home about. So no, not often a very lucrative career. https://www.primeinc.com/trucking-blogs/much-truck-drivers-get-paid/ https://www.primeinc.com/trucking-blogs/much-truck-drivers-g...
- heavyset_go 5y ago> On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. I doubt it, trains and airplanes are as close to automated shipping as we're going to get for a while. Self-driving systems aren't anywhere near ready for personal transportation, and commercial shipping via automated trucks introduces even more complexity and liability. I suspect that driving on tracks that aren't purpose-built for automated transportation requires levels of general human-like intelligence that we aren't even close to reaching with current approaches and tech.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 5y agoYeah, once self-driving tech gets convincingly good enough, I suspect we'll see the left lane of highways be self-driving-only for certain hours in the middle of the night. You could charge the self-driving trucks a hefty tax as they pass through your flyover state, and raise the speed limit for them in return. Empty highways are just underutilized bandwidth.
- Ekaros 5y agoI wonder if speeds might not even go lower in case of automated trucks. Just to save on fuel. That is for not time critical cargo. It is already something that happened with shipping.
- Robotbeat 5y agoThen the pay can be even higher as you’d be managing basically a road train of trucks.
- dredmorbius 5y agoThat's not how labour markets work.
- Robotbeat 5y agoIt is, if demand for the services keeps up with the expanded capacity. Pay can be higher without risking demand destruction due to high costs. If demand doesn’t keep up, then sure, wages could even be lower than today. But I suspect if we expand capacity, growth in demand for shipping will make up for it.
- dredmorbius 5y agoWages as with most non-rent prices are driven by substitutability. If another worker is willing to do the job for less pay, then that sets the market price. Productivity is not a factor, though skills, risk, training, trust, and overall attractiveness of the work may well be --- these are the five factors that Adam Smith identifies over 240 years ago. The other factor might be some form of gating of labour supply through registration, credentialling, unionisation, or a professional organisation (a/k/a guild). These rely however on constraining supply and only succeed in securing remuneration based on suplus value through monopoly gatekeeping. Not because labour is compensated due to productivity.
- Robotbeat 5y agoAbout 10% of truck drivers own their trucks. Maybe that 10% will be able to handle the vast majority of truck traffic. …but not if the tech is controlled centrally by large companies who take most of the profit from it.
- conductr 5y agoI don’t see why long haul trucking even exists. Maybe scale and capacity is more of an issue than I’m aware of, but, nothing seems to really prevent us from using rail for long hauls and then trucking for the last mile or hundred. Having one driver dedicated to hauling one single container/trailer across the country has always seemed unproductive to me and I don’t understand why it’s so prevalent. However I’m completely ignorant to the constraints and economics on the matter.
- shusaku 5y agoProbably because the government is willing to pay for a highway system but not rails
- HWR_14 5y ago> Maybe scale and capacity is more of an issue than I’m aware of, but, nothing seems to really prevent us from using rail for long hauls and then trucking for the last mile or hundred. You're describing multi-modal shipping. As I understand it, rail has a ton more throughput at lower cost with longer and more varied latency. So trucks are necessary for perishable food and JIT shipments, the delay of which could idle a factory. There's also a concern for the closeness of the nearest rail receiving facilities. There's also the short-haul use for trucks. It's not worth putting on a train to go 100 miles.
- ThunderSizzle 5y agoI do know of at least one scenerio: boats. Some boats are simply too tall or too wide for trains to carry, but a truck can pull them straight to a dealer without worrying about being an oversize load.
- throw0101a 5y ago> I don’t see why long haul trucking even exists. Maybe scale and capacity is more of an issue than I’m aware of, but, nothing seems to really prevent us from using rail for long hauls and then trucking for the last mile or hundred. Short-notice deliveries where you may not get be able to get a 'slot' on a train. Oddly shaped loads. Heavy loads. The YouTube channel of Sergei Dratchev: > I'm an independent trucker from Canada who specializes in moving heavy equipment between Canada & USA. Truck: 2019 Kenworth T880 (4 axles) Trailer: 2018 60 ton RGN (also have a tandem jeep and stinger).. Yard location: Cambridge, ON Canada. Company name: Sergei Dratchev Heavy Haul. Find me on Google or visit: * https://www.youtube.com/user/smd5231/videos https://www.youtube.com/user/smd5231/videos
- chaostheory 5y agoDoes anyone remember the 1st Fast and the Furious movie? The big premise for it (which at the time I found completely unrealistic) was that the anti-hero criminals would hijack long haul trunks. This will become a reality soon since people have been robbing freight train cars again. I'm not sure how companies will respond to the threat.
- justinzollars 5y ago> On the other hand, I think long haul trucking will be one of, if not the first job to be 100% replaced by self-driving vehicles. Could this be the reason no one wants to go into Trucking?
- jjulius 5y ago>A self driving truck can go nonstop (gas/battery stops notwithstanding) for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. In the right weather/conditions, sure.
- HWR_14 5y agoTrucking isn't going to be replaced soon because it's not a lucrative career. I mean, truckers might make six figures, but those truckers are also paying gas out of their own pocket. Even before any other expenses, 2/3 of a trucker's "salary" (really income) may be going to fuel. More goes to maintenance. So, going full EV has huge cost savings. Getting rid of the driver, not so much. The problem, other than the cost of the bigger EV cab, is recharging is too damn slow.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 5y agoAutomated battery-swap stations might finally start to make sense with self-driving EV trucks. EVs get away with charging overnight because humans also have to charge overnight when they sleep. But if there's no human driver, and just a big fancy truck instead, you (an investor) really don't want that massive capital investment idling for hours every day just to charge itself. I can easily imagine people making a killing by charging up a bunch of batteries in a really sunny place, then having their robots swap out trucks' batteries as they pass through.
- bombcar 5y agoOr you can catenary the roadways: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg
- HWR_14 5y agoBattery swap is a hard problem. Vehicle design is hard. Dealing with the real costs of shitty batteries is hard (who owns which batteries with how much life on them) is hard. Moving heavy objects safely and routinely by minimum wage labor is hard.
- otterley 5y agoCompany drivers, like the ones discussed in this article, don’t pay for their own fuel. Owner-operators do, but they also get to set their own rates, so they’re in control of how much money they make (subject to what the market will bear, of course).
- manigandham 5y agoInterstate driving is not easy. It's just slightly easier than intense urban traffic, and that's for normal passengers vehicles. A 70-ft 40-ton semi truck is an entirely different challenge. There's a magnitude more things to worry about from wind speed to weight transfer and it's nowhere near as simple as plugging in the current self-driving AIs on "highway" mode.
- prawn 5y agoGiven the complexity of last-mile and the stated predictability of highway driving, wouldn't we see drivers sleeping while the truck was on the highway? Seems a bit pointless to have staff rostered to pick up vehicles for the last mile when they could just sleep in easier stints that the vehicle can manage itself. I think low-speed and light-weight campus taxis will be one of the first areas to go.
- sangnoir 5y ago> wouldn't we see drivers sleeping while the truck was on the highway? What, and get paid for sleeping? Snark aside; it will just tie up drivers to one per truck. instead, trucks can drive themselves between depots/warehouses, and humans will do the last mile (1 driver:many trucks) and the driver can go sleep in their own home at night and be off the clock.