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Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age

by pavlov 5y ago

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure by any normal metrics like monthly active users. It’s not the early days. Rather these are the last days for VCs to sell you this tired old thing before the novelty wears off, and that’s why they are so frantic about pushing it via Hollywood celebrities and whoever else they can muster with money.

alexyim 5y ago
It feels weird that supporting crypto almost feels like a contrarian view judging from the comments here. It sounds like the author is describing crypto as a ponzi (rather than a bubble) and I'd agree too if crypto never ends up on delivering real value. But it already has in terms in efficiencies (e.g. money transfer and cutting out middlemen is a 10x improvement) and I definitely think we're starting to see more. I think that crypto hasn't quite integrated with society yet (yet is the key word). Once it does, crypto will be operating less within its own sandbox and will have more impact on society. It needs to marry into our legal system and deal more with oracles bridging the real world into the crypto world. When you say Bitcoin is 13 years old you're only looking at it from a technology standpoint. It's made a few strides in this time period, but I think we could also consider Bitcoin as a monetary good. From that lens, as something to think about, how long did it take for gold to be accepted as currency? The rest of crypto is much less than 13 years old and I think we'll start seeing more of their impact in the next 5 years.
chasil 5y ago
This is a major problem. Without redesign, this falls on "q-day". https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/round-3-submissions https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/rou... "Formal complaint regarding 8 June 2021 incident - 2021.06.15, Daniel J. Bernstein "Executive summary. A week ago Dr. Daniel Apon from NIST publicly accused me of professional misconduct. Specifically, he accused me of initiating private contact with NIST so as to provide false information to NIST regarding the timing of an upcoming announcement relevant to NIST’s ongoing decisions..."
- hackernewds 5y ago
  Never heard of this. Is this a bot comment? the link doesn't indicate how this fail on a so called q-day
  - chasil 5y ago
    This is what I've read on the subject of q-day. The gist is that Shor's algorithm might not be strictly necessary with a quantum annealer. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-is-coming-sooner-than-we-think/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-i... There is consensus on this question. * ssh(1), sshd(8): add the sntrup761x25519-sha512@openssh.com hybrid ECDH/x25519 + Streamlined NTRU Prime post-quantum KEX to the default KEXAlgorithms list (after the ECDH methods but before the prime-group DH ones). The next release of OpenSSH is likely to make this key exchange the default method. https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html
- nurettin 5y ago
  Alexa, unsubscribe from amazon music.
wraptile 5y ago
You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems that come pre-enabled on our phones! Crypto is just too big to be adopted quickly and one might argue that's actually a good thing.
- fhe 5y ago
  "Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption" I don't see why that's self-evident. Decentralized applications get fast and wide adoption all the time, e.g. Napster.
  - mvlpn 5y ago
    Indeed. Another example I have in mind is MIRC but both filled a void. I think there is little room for crypto to fill. Most of the world doesn’t have a need for it.
  - TomSwirly 5y ago
    Or git.
  - Ekaros 5y ago
    Torrents, P2P file sharing in general. I really don't get the argument that technology doesn't get adopted fast.
- pavlov 5y ago
  The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon. If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.
  - Osiris 5y ago
winternett 5y ago
Even the concept of celebrity is wearing thin... People you've never heard of before now have larger followings (yet not quite more money) than many of the movie stars of the past... This is why some major stars are literally having public melt downs and hawking dances on TikTok and shilling NFTs... Twitter hocking NFTs to everyone for their profile pics is like a Costa Concordia-level move, which pretty much serves as a huge sign that the ship is sinking... It's a car accident in process to be honest, and only the people who read alt-news sources get the right dose of pessimism. On the flip side, I'm still confused but pleased that my email inbox is still only flooded with bank transfer scheme emails rather than crypto/NFT news and scams... Ahh... The quiet life... :P
zild3d 5y ago
Windows was not one of the first operating systems, nor Android for mobile OS. Doesn't seem like great comparisons to make to be honest. The first operating system for real work is arguably in 1956 [1]. 13 years later we still didn't have the personal computer. The internet was born in 1983. 13 years later it was around 36M users (1% global population) [2] With "general purpose" crypto/decentralized apps really only getting going in 2015 w/ ethereum, it does seem like early days. The UX and infrastructure/tooling are still a ways away from being consumer ready. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_operating_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_operating_systems [2] https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm

by pavlov 5y ago

alexyim 5y ago

It feels weird that supporting crypto almost feels like a contrarian view judging from the comments here. It sounds like the author is describing crypto as a ponzi (rather than a bubble) and I'd agree too if crypto never ends up on delivering real value. But it already has in terms in efficiencies (e.g. money transfer and cutting out middlemen is a 10x improvement) and I definitely think we're starting to see more. I think that crypto hasn't quite integrated with society yet (yet is the key word). Once it does, crypto will be operating less within its own sandbox and will have more impact on society. It needs to marry into our legal system and deal more with oracles bridging the real world into the crypto world. When you say Bitcoin is 13 years old you're only looking at it from a technology standpoint. It's made a few strides in this time period, but I think we could also consider Bitcoin as a monetary good. From that lens, as something to think about, how long did it take for gold to be accepted as currency? The rest of crypto is much less than 13 years old and I think we'll start seeing more of their impact in the next 5 years.

chasil 5y ago

This is a major problem. Without redesign, this falls on "q-day". https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/round-3-submissions https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/rou... "Formal complaint regarding 8 June 2021 incident - 2021.06.15, Daniel J. Bernstein "Executive summary. A week ago Dr. Daniel Apon from NIST publicly accused me of professional misconduct. Specifically, he accused me of initiating private contact with NIST so as to provide false information to NIST regarding the timing of an upcoming announcement relevant to NIST’s ongoing decisions..."

hackernewds 5y ago
Never heard of this. Is this a bot comment? the link doesn't indicate how this fail on a so called q-day
- chasil 5y ago
  This is what I've read on the subject of q-day. The gist is that Shor's algorithm might not be strictly necessary with a quantum annealer. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-is-coming-sooner-than-we-think/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-i... There is consensus on this question. * ssh(1), sshd(8): add the sntrup761x25519-sha512@openssh.com hybrid ECDH/x25519 + Streamlined NTRU Prime post-quantum KEX to the default KEXAlgorithms list (after the ECDH methods but before the prime-group DH ones). The next release of OpenSSH is likely to make this key exchange the default method. https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html
nurettin 5y ago
Alexa, unsubscribe from amazon music.

wraptile 5y ago

You're comparing apples to oranges. Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption (just look at decentralized networks like Mastodon which are objectively better than alternatives yet lag behind in adoption). Finally, bitcoin is a financial product, I really don't know any other financial systems that we're adopted quickly other than maybe payment processors. We still struggle to adopt centralized systems that come pre-enabled on our phones! Crypto is just too big to be adopted quickly and one might argue that's actually a good thing.

fhe 5y ago
"Decentralized systems by nature suffer for slow adoption" I don't see why that's self-evident. Decentralized applications get fast and wide adoption all the time, e.g. Napster.
- mvlpn 5y ago
  Indeed. Another example I have in mind is MIRC but both filled a void. I think there is little room for crypto to fill. Most of the world doesn’t have a need for it.
- TomSwirly 5y ago
  Or git.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  Torrents, P2P file sharing in general. I really don't get the argument that technology doesn't get adopted fast.
pavlov 5y ago
The EU created and deployed instant zero-cost 24/7 bank transfers while crypto was twiddling its thumbs talking about “early days” and puffing out PoW carbon. If even the European Union moves faster than your cutting-edge decentralized system, maybe you have a problem.
- Osiris 5y ago

winternett 5y ago

Even the concept of celebrity is wearing thin... People you've never heard of before now have larger followings (yet not quite more money) than many of the movie stars of the past... This is why some major stars are literally having public melt downs and hawking dances on TikTok and shilling NFTs... Twitter hocking NFTs to everyone for their profile pics is like a Costa Concordia-level move, which pretty much serves as a huge sign that the ship is sinking... It's a car accident in process to be honest, and only the people who read alt-news sources get the right dose of pessimism. On the flip side, I'm still confused but pleased that my email inbox is still only flooded with bank transfer scheme emails rather than crypto/NFT news and scams... Ahh... The quiet life... :P

zild3d 5y ago

Windows was not one of the first operating systems, nor Android for mobile OS. Doesn't seem like great comparisons to make to be honest. The first operating system for real work is arguably in 1956 [1]. 13 years later we still didn't have the personal computer. The internet was born in 1983. 13 years later it was around 36M users (1% global population) [2] With "general purpose" crypto/decentralized apps really only getting going in 2015 w/ ethereum, it does seem like early days. The UX and infrastructure/tooling are still a ways away from being consumer ready. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_operating_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_operating_systems [2] https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm