4 ms·

Won't work because he's making $1bn/day from energy supply.

by sydthrowaway 5y ago

metadat 5y ago
Not for long, everyone is getting off the teet of .ru oil.
- astrange 5y ago
  Gas is the harder one to move off for both sides, since Germany needs it for heating and it'll take a while for them to move to selling it to China (which will turn them into China's economic colony). Not sure which one they officially make more from selling though.
  - trog 5y ago
    Been wondering how the gas situation may change as Europe moves into summer though...? Presumably demand tapers off pretty quickly.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    they already sell it to china but for lower price
    - RF_Savage 5y ago
      60% of exports are to Europe and the pipelines feeding Europe are not connected to the one's used to transport gas to China. So a switch just cannot be flipped. It's a major infrastructure project.
      - tguvot 5y ago
        i know. it looked like whoever posted above wasn't aware that russia currently sells gas to china, so I clarified this point.
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    Spring is coming. How much longer will Germany need gas for heat? When I've been there in April it's very mild, much more mild than here in the midwest/northeast that time of year
    - jerlam 5y ago
      My understanding is that Germany buys natural gas regularly throughout the year, and stores it. During the winter the stored gas is rapidly used up, much faster than can be replenished. It is not like the gas flows directly from Russia to people's homes.
      - MandieD 5y ago
        And this previous year, Gazprom didn't fill the tanks.
        namibj 5y ago
        They reliably held up their end of the contract. It was quarterly-thinking MBAs in hahaha who are the reason for that.
  - trhway 5y ago
    >which will turn them into China's economic colony China has expressed interest in buying stock of large "system-forming" Russian companies which has fallen tremendously in recent days.
- riku_iki 5y ago
  Only US, EU and allies (partially), there are plenty of countries (China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, etc) who didn't join the sanctions.
  - adventured 5y ago
    US GDP > GDP of China + India + Pakistan + Brazil. Global reserve currency = USD. Pakistan? Ha, comeon. Now let's add in the other US allies (EU GDP is ~$16t-$17t, roughly equal to China; Canada and Australia both have economies larger than Russia). And we're just getting warmed up. Most of the global economic might is with the US and its allies. Russia can be successfully smashed economically, and it'll be far easier than it was with the USSR.
    - riku_iki 5y ago
      It doesn't matter. What matters is that they (China + India + Pakistan + Brazil + 100 other countries) will continue buying Putin's oil.
      - adventured 5y ago
        Like they're buying oil from Venezuela, Syria and Iran? There's five to six million barrels per day the US pulled off the market (that it can put back, and choke off Russia instead). Russia can be smashed economically, and that includes gradually choking off the potency of their energy sector (even if it can't be entirely crushed). Give the US a small bit of time to ramp production and it'll happily replace three million barrels per day of Russia's oil production at $90-$120 / barrel.
        riku_iki 5y ago
        > Like they're buying oil from Venezuela, Syria and Iran? I think it is different case, US says they will prosecute/sanction anyone who do business with those countries. US didn't apply such measures on Russia. In my understanding, EU is still buying Russian oil and gas and doesn't have plans of banning it.
adventured 5y ago
It'll merely pad some of the damage, not all of it, and not for the majority of the Russian population. It also takes a long time (in the context of a war) to train up effective new soldiers to replace dead soldiers and to replace large amounts of destroyed hardware, particularly given Russia's meager manufacturing capabilities. Putin likely gets one shot at taking Ukraine (and that's right now), regardless of the inbound oil money. It'll take a decade of bountiful oil money for Russia's military to recover from this disaster.

Won't work because he's making $1bn/day from energy supply.

metadat 5y ago

Not for long, everyone is getting off the teet of .ru oil.

astrange 5y ago
Gas is the harder one to move off for both sides, since Germany needs it for heating and it'll take a while for them to move to selling it to China (which will turn them into China's economic colony). Not sure which one they officially make more from selling though.
- trog 5y ago
  Been wondering how the gas situation may change as Europe moves into summer though...? Presumably demand tapers off pretty quickly.
- tguvot 5y ago
  they already sell it to china but for lower price
  - RF_Savage 5y ago
    60% of exports are to Europe and the pipelines feeding Europe are not connected to the one's used to transport gas to China. So a switch just cannot be flipped. It's a major infrastructure project.
    - tguvot 5y ago
      i know. it looked like whoever posted above wasn't aware that russia currently sells gas to china, so I clarified this point.
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  Spring is coming. How much longer will Germany need gas for heat? When I've been there in April it's very mild, much more mild than here in the midwest/northeast that time of year
  - jerlam 5y ago
    My understanding is that Germany buys natural gas regularly throughout the year, and stores it. During the winter the stored gas is rapidly used up, much faster than can be replenished. It is not like the gas flows directly from Russia to people's homes.
    - MandieD 5y ago
      And this previous year, Gazprom didn't fill the tanks.
      - namibj 5y ago
        They reliably held up their end of the contract. It was quarterly-thinking MBAs in hahaha who are the reason for that.
- trhway 5y ago
  >which will turn them into China's economic colony China has expressed interest in buying stock of large "system-forming" Russian companies which has fallen tremendously in recent days.
riku_iki 5y ago
Only US, EU and allies (partially), there are plenty of countries (China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, etc) who didn't join the sanctions.
- adventured 5y ago
  US GDP > GDP of China + India + Pakistan + Brazil. Global reserve currency = USD. Pakistan? Ha, comeon. Now let's add in the other US allies (EU GDP is ~$16t-$17t, roughly equal to China; Canada and Australia both have economies larger than Russia). And we're just getting warmed up. Most of the global economic might is with the US and its allies. Russia can be successfully smashed economically, and it'll be far easier than it was with the USSR.
  - riku_iki 5y ago
    It doesn't matter. What matters is that they (China + India + Pakistan + Brazil + 100 other countries) will continue buying Putin's oil.
    - adventured 5y ago
      Like they're buying oil from Venezuela, Syria and Iran? There's five to six million barrels per day the US pulled off the market (that it can put back, and choke off Russia instead). Russia can be smashed economically, and that includes gradually choking off the potency of their energy sector (even if it can't be entirely crushed). Give the US a small bit of time to ramp production and it'll happily replace three million barrels per day of Russia's oil production at $90-$120 / barrel.
      - riku_iki 5y ago
        > Like they're buying oil from Venezuela, Syria and Iran? I think it is different case, US says they will prosecute/sanction anyone who do business with those countries. US didn't apply such measures on Russia. In my understanding, EU is still buying Russian oil and gas and doesn't have plans of banning it.

adventured 5y ago

It'll merely pad some of the damage, not all of it, and not for the majority of the Russian population. It also takes a long time (in the context of a war) to train up effective new soldiers to replace dead soldiers and to replace large amounts of destroyed hardware, particularly given Russia's meager manufacturing capabilities. Putin likely gets one shot at taking Ukraine (and that's right now), regardless of the inbound oil money. It'll take a decade of bountiful oil money for Russia's military to recover from this disaster.