4 ms·

Surely it didn't have anything to do with the media pimping him nonstop during the primaries, giving him disproportionate airtime, or that the democrats ran one

Surely it didn't have anything to do with the media pimping him nonstop during the primaries, giving him disproportionate airtime, or that the democrats ran one of their least likable candidates of all time. Not to mention running a terrible campaign that spent all of its time hanging out with megadonors instead of actually visiting the swing states that decide elections...

adventured 5y ago
Russian interference had little to do with his victory in 2016, which was an establishment vs outsider election (and Hillary was quite unpopular and unlikable), where a very famous populist outsider won by telling his rabid audience whatever he thought they wanted to hear (little of which he actually followed through on). One of Trump's few talents is reading an audience and feeding it whatever it wants to hear; it makes him dangerous as a potential demagogue authoritarian type. Trump nearly beat Biden in 2020, and he would have beaten any other Democrat candidate that year, which overwhelmingly points to it not being Russian interference as a major influence. Everyone knew what Trump was by the 2020 election and he still attracted more votes than Barack Obama got in either election (and Obama was a widely popular President).
- beepbooptheory 5y ago
  Respectfully, Bernie would have won.
  - jessaustin 5y ago
    In 2016, definitely. In 2020, after several troubling compromises, I'm not so sure?
- zdragnar 5y ago
  He did actually keep quite a few of his campaign promises. Where he really got stymied was lack of cooperation from the house under Ryan (early days of the dossier hoax). I made a habit of trying to count broken campaign promises starting in the Clinton years, and it is pretty much universal that presidents over-promise during the campaign and do the opposite once they get into office. I haven't really kept accurate numbers, but it certainly wasn't unique to trump by any means.
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    Could you provide any data? I don't know anyone whose claims I trust less than Trump. Saying everyone breaks some campaign promises is like saying that everyone lies - there is an enormous range.
    - toast0 5y ago
      I don't have the data, but let's just say that campaign promises are not credible, regardless of the politician. A whole lot of the promises made are outside the baliwick of the position, and should be rediculed when made, not when broken (mayoral candidates often promise to fix schools in jurisdictions where the schools are accountable to school boards and not city governments, for example. Presidential candidates promise things that would need to be enacted by the legislature. At the same time, a presidential candidate that promises to suggest legislation sounds unambitious). But what makes me less likely to trust Trump's claims and promises is his consistent denial of claims he made previously that he no longer wishes to make. It's hard to trust someone when they change positions and deny that they had a different positon. Gives very We were always at war with Eastasia vibes.
      - wolverine876 5y ago
        > let's just say that campaign promises are not credible, regardless of the politician That assertion is unlikely to be meaningful, IME. Specific politicians are more and less credible in specific ways. To say 'all are not credible' is no more true or meaningful than saying 'all are credible'. Off the top of my head: All food contains water, but that tells us almost nothing about any food.
Bjorkbat 5y ago
I have to admit I didn't vote at all during that election, half because of how unlikable both candidates were. But the other half of the reason was that I kind of figured Hilary had it in the bag. She was simply better resourced in terms of money and in terms of the groups and individuals who were supporting her. How could she not win? Especially against Trump? Sure, she made some mistakes along the way, but Trump also mocked a disabled reporter during one of his campaign appearances. One could argue that he made just as many mistakes, if not more. I don't really think Trump had any unfair advantages one could consider substantial (if anything he had a lot of disadvantages) nor do I believe that Hilary made any mistakes that were really damaging to her campaign. Its nuts, but the most convincing explanation I can think of is the weirdest and most esoteric one. Just can't ignore those spooky synchronicities.
- nwienert 5y ago
  It’s near impossible to believe around these parts, but I think people liked his incorrectness, and also liked his general policies. That he was a showman helped the memes. But I encourage you to consider mundane things like maybe people were tired of status quo globalism and willing to take a bitter pill to try and fix it.
  - rajup 5y ago
    Yes it really is as simple as what you just said. I find it funny and sad when opponents of Trump do all these weird mental contortions to explain why he won, from “trump voters are brainwashed rednecks” to Russiagate. Turns out some people do want lesser taxes, lesser regulation, don’t care for abortion and simply don’t mind trumps buffoonery. And no, not all of trump voters are racist. I might even say a negligible fraction are actually racist.
    - the_sleaze_ 5y ago
      > not all of trump voters are racist. I am reminded of a comedian's favorite response to this statement. > Not all trump supporters are racist, but ALL racists are trump supporters.

adventured 5y ago

Russian interference had little to do with his victory in 2016, which was an establishment vs outsider election (and Hillary was quite unpopular and unlikable), where a very famous populist outsider won by telling his rabid audience whatever he thought they wanted to hear (little of which he actually followed through on). One of Trump's few talents is reading an audience and feeding it whatever it wants to hear; it makes him dangerous as a potential demagogue authoritarian type. Trump nearly beat Biden in 2020, and he would have beaten any other Democrat candidate that year, which overwhelmingly points to it not being Russian interference as a major influence. Everyone knew what Trump was by the 2020 election and he still attracted more votes than Barack Obama got in either election (and Obama was a widely popular President).

beepbooptheory 5y ago
Respectfully, Bernie would have won.
- jessaustin 5y ago
  In 2016, definitely. In 2020, after several troubling compromises, I'm not so sure?
zdragnar 5y ago
He did actually keep quite a few of his campaign promises. Where he really got stymied was lack of cooperation from the house under Ryan (early days of the dossier hoax). I made a habit of trying to count broken campaign promises starting in the Clinton years, and it is pretty much universal that presidents over-promise during the campaign and do the opposite once they get into office. I haven't really kept accurate numbers, but it certainly wasn't unique to trump by any means.
- wolverine876 5y ago
  Could you provide any data? I don't know anyone whose claims I trust less than Trump. Saying everyone breaks some campaign promises is like saying that everyone lies - there is an enormous range.
  - toast0 5y ago
    I don't have the data, but let's just say that campaign promises are not credible, regardless of the politician. A whole lot of the promises made are outside the baliwick of the position, and should be rediculed when made, not when broken (mayoral candidates often promise to fix schools in jurisdictions where the schools are accountable to school boards and not city governments, for example. Presidential candidates promise things that would need to be enacted by the legislature. At the same time, a presidential candidate that promises to suggest legislation sounds unambitious). But what makes me less likely to trust Trump's claims and promises is his consistent denial of claims he made previously that he no longer wishes to make. It's hard to trust someone when they change positions and deny that they had a different positon. Gives very We were always at war with Eastasia vibes.
    - wolverine876 5y ago
      > let's just say that campaign promises are not credible, regardless of the politician That assertion is unlikely to be meaningful, IME. Specific politicians are more and less credible in specific ways. To say 'all are not credible' is no more true or meaningful than saying 'all are credible'. Off the top of my head: All food contains water, but that tells us almost nothing about any food.

Bjorkbat 5y ago

I have to admit I didn't vote at all during that election, half because of how unlikable both candidates were. But the other half of the reason was that I kind of figured Hilary had it in the bag. She was simply better resourced in terms of money and in terms of the groups and individuals who were supporting her. How could she not win? Especially against Trump? Sure, she made some mistakes along the way, but Trump also mocked a disabled reporter during one of his campaign appearances. One could argue that he made just as many mistakes, if not more. I don't really think Trump had any unfair advantages one could consider substantial (if anything he had a lot of disadvantages) nor do I believe that Hilary made any mistakes that were really damaging to her campaign. Its nuts, but the most convincing explanation I can think of is the weirdest and most esoteric one. Just can't ignore those spooky synchronicities.

nwienert 5y ago
It’s near impossible to believe around these parts, but I think people liked his incorrectness, and also liked his general policies. That he was a showman helped the memes. But I encourage you to consider mundane things like maybe people were tired of status quo globalism and willing to take a bitter pill to try and fix it.
- rajup 5y ago
  Yes it really is as simple as what you just said. I find it funny and sad when opponents of Trump do all these weird mental contortions to explain why he won, from “trump voters are brainwashed rednecks” to Russiagate. Turns out some people do want lesser taxes, lesser regulation, don’t care for abortion and simply don’t mind trumps buffoonery. And no, not all of trump voters are racist. I might even say a negligible fraction are actually racist.
  - the_sleaze_ 5y ago
    > not all of trump voters are racist. I am reminded of a comedian's favorite response to this statement. > Not all trump supporters are racist, but ALL racists are trump supporters.