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Are Waymo and Cruise not commercial products? I think they work in most conditions. How someone can look at Cruise and Waymo already in operation today and thi

by ilaksh 5y ago

Are Waymo and Cruise not commercial products? I think they work in most conditions. How someone can look at Cruise and Waymo already in operation today and think they won't be generally available in 7 years is amazing to me.

thetallstick 5y ago
To be commercially available for passenger use in major cities at level 5, regulators have to also agree it's level 5. It's not just a technical problem.
msandford 5y ago
There's a huge difference between "works fine 95% of the time in a place with very cooperative weather" and "works 99.99% of the time no matter the weather" I mean there are times when human drivers are insufficient for the conditions.
- fdgsdfogijq 5y ago
  Honestly I dont think there is that much difference. California is massive. Having self driving cars here will completely change society.
  - lhorie 5y ago
    California weather is very forgiving even if you account for places like Tahoe. AFAIK, none of the self driving companies have much experience with scenarios like New York in winter.
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    I disagree with all three assertions above - the dififculty increases exponentially for the last few percentage points, just like energy required increases towards infinity as you approach the speed of light, California is a small part of one country. All we will get out of self-driving cars is more traffic jams, more consumerism, and less security in our lives because you might be locked out of essential service in case you didn't sign a lisence agreement or made an offensive tweet, or replied to a spammer
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ska 5y ago
> Are Waymo and Cruise not commercial products? Not really, and they aren't level 5. Essentially the bet is that getting to 5 is harder than people think, and getting to commercially available SAE5 is going to take (at least) longer than 7 years. Bear in mind all commercial systems now are level 2 and testing features for 3. Waymo/Cruise are testing 4.

by ilaksh 5y ago

thetallstick 5y ago

To be commercially available for passenger use in major cities at level 5, regulators have to also agree it's level 5. It's not just a technical problem.

msandford 5y ago

There's a huge difference between "works fine 95% of the time in a place with very cooperative weather" and "works 99.99% of the time no matter the weather" I mean there are times when human drivers are insufficient for the conditions.

fdgsdfogijq 5y ago
Honestly I dont think there is that much difference. California is massive. Having self driving cars here will completely change society.
- lhorie 5y ago
  California weather is very forgiving even if you account for places like Tahoe. AFAIK, none of the self driving companies have much experience with scenarios like New York in winter.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  I disagree with all three assertions above - the dififculty increases exponentially for the last few percentage points, just like energy required increases towards infinity as you approach the speed of light, California is a small part of one country. All we will get out of self-driving cars is more traffic jams, more consumerism, and less security in our lives because you might be locked out of essential service in case you didn't sign a lisence agreement or made an offensive tweet, or replied to a spammer

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

ska 5y ago

> Are Waymo and Cruise not commercial products? Not really, and they aren't level 5. Essentially the bet is that getting to 5 is harder than people think, and getting to commercially available SAE5 is going to take (at least) longer than 7 years. Bear in mind all commercial systems now are level 2 and testing features for 3. Waymo/Cruise are testing 4.