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The same logic would allow Putin to take all of Europe. If not now, when?
by grey-area 5y ago
The same logic would allow Putin to take all of Europe. If not now, when?
- tim333 5y agoWell it's different for the EU/NATO bits - NATO would certainly fight if he went into Poland. Not so sure about Moldova say.
- vertis 5y agoWhat about Finland and Sweden? What about if it was just the island of Gotland, and not an all out invasion. Edit: And how much will you give up to avoid a Nuclear War. Assuming the other side is not rational and can't be trusted to protect their existence in a MAD scenario. Maybe Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not worth "the world being destroyed". Where does it stop.
- georgeecollins 5y agoFinland and Sweden haven't asked to be in NATO. It was clear that Germany was not even willing to send defensive weapons to Ukraine. So I don't think the NATO countries were ready to fight over Ukraine, including the US. I don't know if Germany would go to war to protect Gotland, but if Swedes think it could happen maybe they should join NATO? That would clarify the situation one way or another.
- deepsun 5y agoFinland already did, just this week.
- tim333 5y agoI imagine we'd protect Finland and or Sweden / Gotland. Though not a foreign policy expert or anything. I think it's a bit of a practical trade off. I'm in London and while it's tempting to do a UK/US no fly zone I'm don't especially want the risk of an off his trolly Putin nuking here. But maybe we could slip some planes and missiles to Ukraine - depending on what we can get away with.
- pasabagi 5y agoI don't think the Russians would do well against Finland and Sweden. Both are big economies, both produce a lot of arms, and the Finnish army is both large and modern. They could maybe win against Sweden alone, since it's largely demilitarized, but they don't actually have a border, and I don't know why Finland wouldn't get involved. PS: Finland also does conscription, so there's like a million fins who could be called up if a war broke out, and they'd all have training.
- grey-area 5y agoThis is exactly the sort of prevarication dressed up as realpolitik that Putin thrives on. This is why it was so dangerous for Biden to indicate that a small incursion into Ukraine was ok - show weakness and he'll take whatever he can and wait to be stopped, if he's not stopped he'll take again till he is.
- k__ 5y agoI think, the idea is that Putin wanted to invade more than Ukraine, and even planned to wage war with NATO at some time. But he miscalculated the Ukraine resistance. So chances are that 1. He has to pause after Ukraine, giving NATO time to level up. Leading to a new cold war. 2. If he wouldn't pause, at least he would be weakened by the Ukraine war.
- yodsanklai 5y ago> I think, the idea is that Putin wanted to invade more than Ukraine, and even planned to wage war with NATO at some time. Why would you think that?
- k__ 5y agoHis reason to invade Ukraine was that it was part of Russia back in the days, and not its own country. That could be true for NATO member countries.
- denton-scratch 5y agoHasn't he said as much? - The collapse of the CCCP and Warsaw Pact was a catastrophe - Peter The Great was great, and Russia should be extended to its old imperial borders I'm not aware that he's expressed the desire to go to war with NATO. But I do believe that subjugating Ukraine is a prerequisite to occupying the Baltic states. In particular Kaliningrad, Russia's only ice-free Baltic naval base, is connected to Russia by a long, narrow landbridge, which is very vulnerable, being protected largely by treaty commitments. Defending that landbridge with purely military force would imply aggression against Lithuania or Poland (or both), and both countries are in NATO.
- pintxo 5y agothere is no land connection under Russian control between Kaliningrad and the rest of russia, is there?
- denton-scratch 5y ago
- georgeecollins 5y agoWhen a NATO country is attacked. The logic is very clear and that is why Putin does not want to see Ukraine in NATO.