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You realize that instituting a no fly zone means the US shooting down Russian aircraft, right? Which means a hot war between US/NATO and Russia. That is somethi

by ericd 5y ago

You realize that instituting a no fly zone means the US shooting down Russian aircraft, right? Which means a hot war between US/NATO and Russia. That is something that the US should absolutely not engage in, because the stakes at that point are the survival of the species, rather than just Ukraine. We need to not normalize the idea of a no fly zone, no matter how gut wrenching watching this war gets.

oddmiral 5y ago
If RF will blow up nuclear reactor, Ukraine and EU will be uninhabitable, but USA will be safe.
bluecalm 5y ago
You're operating under an assumption that Putin will only use nuclear power if we cross some imaginary line. We analyze agreements, fine print, war conventions. Those things don't matter to him. If he feels he is losing this war he will threaten nuclear weapons anyway. He may threaten it if he doesn't get exactly what he wants. We need to stop normalizing the idea that there is some holy line which is we just stay away from bad things won't happen. Putin just moves the line wherever he wants and you will keep dancing around it. This naive thinking really needs to die already.
- ignoramous 5y ago
  As abhorrent as it sounds, if the Russian government authorizes use of nuclear weapons, it might only be exclusively to get Ukraine to surrender and end the war on Russian terms. I don't think their designs will be to go nuclear on rest of Europe.
  - lordnacho 5y ago
    That's just the nuclear salami method. Declare you're only using nukes locally and everyone else better not piss you off. Take that slice. Repeat.
    - ignoramous 5y ago
      Nuclear salami doesn't work on NATO territory, so we can assume that is an unlikely scenario... But, hey, what do you know... if Putin is really as unhinged as the Western media claims him to be. As for me, I can't bring myself to trust the Western media in the times of war. Not after the farce that was WMD.
mcv 5y ago
A no-fly zone is no justification for nuclear escalation. Internationally, the only justification for a nuclear attack is in retaliation to another nuclear attack. That is it. Putin has made it clear that he will also launch a nuclear attack in case of an "existential war", which means a war where Russia itself is being attacked with the purpose of conquering or destroying it. A no-fly zone is not that. There is no reason for Russia to escalate to nuclear, except for Putin's vengeful ego. Because everybody knows that if Russia goes nuclear, it would be the end of Russia. Everybody in the nuclear chain of command knows this. Even if Putin is actually insane enough to order a nuclear attack (he might be, I don't know), anyone of any competence in the military will ignore those orders, because it would end their country and kill their family. (Although you could ask whether there is anyone of competence left in the Russian military; Putin seems to replace competents with loyalists, and the incompetent execution of the attack on Kiev doesn't inspire much confidence here.) And if Putin's vengeful ego will make him order a nuclear attack, then losing this war will probably do that anyway, whether or not NATO or EU had anything to do with it. And there is no way Putin can win this war. Ukrainians have made clear that they will continue to fight, no matter what. If Kiev falls, they will continue to fight. Any city that Russia takes, will be Ukrainian again the moment they leave. For Ukrainians, there is no surrender possible to a man who wants to enslave them. If this war continues, it can only become a massacre. Putin would have to kill every single Ukrainian, and I'm starting to believe that he would. It would be another holocaust. I think a no-fly zone is the only option.
- KronisLV 5y ago
  > Putin has made it clear that he will also launch a nuclear attack in case of an "existential war", which means a war where Russia itself is being attacked with the purpose of conquering or destroying it. Are you sure about that, to the point of risking the continuity of the species and all of our modern civilizations upon that? If one can claim that the Jewish population in Ukraine is actually Nazis and have many of their citizens believe it even as the economy is collapsing, i doubt that justifying even greater crimes against humanity or other horrible actions is out of the question. It breaks my heart to see that bullies like Putin are allowed to largely get away with what's going on (apart from support for Ukraine by the international community, though that's essentially funding a proxy war and civilians and the culture at large will still suffer immensely), but you also have to understand the reluctance of other countries to escalate. And to prevent anyone dismissing the above arguments due to my biases towards the western perspective, i've seen people on /r/russia attempt to justify their military's actions by recalling past actions of western regimes. Just to be clear, i condemn all actions like this, regardless by whom they're perpetuated: two wrongs don't make a right. Humanity should learn to talk, though i fear that there are irreconcilable differences as well.
thesmok 5y ago
Ukraine is already winning the war in all domains except air. Air support is all we need to have a clear win here. At this point NATO has a choice of engaging Russia at Ukrainian territory now, or at NATO territory later.
xfitm3 5y ago
This is bananas. They need our help. We absolutely need to keep pushing for a no-fly zone and enforce it. This is now the world's war, and has reached far beyond the politics internal to Russia and Ukraine.
- ericd 5y ago
  Yeah no, it would be bananas to engage Russia directly. We engaged in plenty of proxy wars during the Cold War, we never went direct.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > We engaged in plenty of proxy wars during the Cold War, we never went direct. In fact, we went direct fairly regularly, but only in circumstances where we (or they, or, in a few cases both) maintained superficial (not always really plausible, as both sides would often protect the fiction to avoid escalation) deniability. That is why, for instance, radio intercepts of North Korean pilots in the Korean War showed they tended to switch from Korean to Russian a lot under stress.
    - ericd 5y ago
      Haha interesting! I thought that we usually stopped at providing weapons, training, etc. I wonder if there’s something similar possible here.

by ericd 5y ago

oddmiral 5y ago

If RF will blow up nuclear reactor, Ukraine and EU will be uninhabitable, but USA will be safe.

bluecalm 5y ago

You're operating under an assumption that Putin will only use nuclear power if we cross some imaginary line. We analyze agreements, fine print, war conventions. Those things don't matter to him. If he feels he is losing this war he will threaten nuclear weapons anyway. He may threaten it if he doesn't get exactly what he wants. We need to stop normalizing the idea that there is some holy line which is we just stay away from bad things won't happen. Putin just moves the line wherever he wants and you will keep dancing around it. This naive thinking really needs to die already.

ignoramous 5y ago
As abhorrent as it sounds, if the Russian government authorizes use of nuclear weapons, it might only be exclusively to get Ukraine to surrender and end the war on Russian terms. I don't think their designs will be to go nuclear on rest of Europe.
- lordnacho 5y ago
  That's just the nuclear salami method. Declare you're only using nukes locally and everyone else better not piss you off. Take that slice. Repeat.
  - ignoramous 5y ago
    Nuclear salami doesn't work on NATO territory, so we can assume that is an unlikely scenario... But, hey, what do you know... if Putin is really as unhinged as the Western media claims him to be. As for me, I can't bring myself to trust the Western media in the times of war. Not after the farce that was WMD.

mcv 5y ago

A no-fly zone is no justification for nuclear escalation. Internationally, the only justification for a nuclear attack is in retaliation to another nuclear attack. That is it. Putin has made it clear that he will also launch a nuclear attack in case of an "existential war", which means a war where Russia itself is being attacked with the purpose of conquering or destroying it. A no-fly zone is not that. There is no reason for Russia to escalate to nuclear, except for Putin's vengeful ego. Because everybody knows that if Russia goes nuclear, it would be the end of Russia. Everybody in the nuclear chain of command knows this. Even if Putin is actually insane enough to order a nuclear attack (he might be, I don't know), anyone of any competence in the military will ignore those orders, because it would end their country and kill their family. (Although you could ask whether there is anyone of competence left in the Russian military; Putin seems to replace competents with loyalists, and the incompetent execution of the attack on Kiev doesn't inspire much confidence here.) And if Putin's vengeful ego will make him order a nuclear attack, then losing this war will probably do that anyway, whether or not NATO or EU had anything to do with it. And there is no way Putin can win this war. Ukrainians have made clear that they will continue to fight, no matter what. If Kiev falls, they will continue to fight. Any city that Russia takes, will be Ukrainian again the moment they leave. For Ukrainians, there is no surrender possible to a man who wants to enslave them. If this war continues, it can only become a massacre. Putin would have to kill every single Ukrainian, and I'm starting to believe that he would. It would be another holocaust. I think a no-fly zone is the only option.

KronisLV 5y ago
> Putin has made it clear that he will also launch a nuclear attack in case of an "existential war", which means a war where Russia itself is being attacked with the purpose of conquering or destroying it. Are you sure about that, to the point of risking the continuity of the species and all of our modern civilizations upon that? If one can claim that the Jewish population in Ukraine is actually Nazis and have many of their citizens believe it even as the economy is collapsing, i doubt that justifying even greater crimes against humanity or other horrible actions is out of the question. It breaks my heart to see that bullies like Putin are allowed to largely get away with what's going on (apart from support for Ukraine by the international community, though that's essentially funding a proxy war and civilians and the culture at large will still suffer immensely), but you also have to understand the reluctance of other countries to escalate. And to prevent anyone dismissing the above arguments due to my biases towards the western perspective, i've seen people on /r/russia attempt to justify their military's actions by recalling past actions of western regimes. Just to be clear, i condemn all actions like this, regardless by whom they're perpetuated: two wrongs don't make a right. Humanity should learn to talk, though i fear that there are irreconcilable differences as well.

thesmok 5y ago

Ukraine is already winning the war in all domains except air. Air support is all we need to have a clear win here. At this point NATO has a choice of engaging Russia at Ukrainian territory now, or at NATO territory later.

xfitm3 5y ago

This is bananas. They need our help. We absolutely need to keep pushing for a no-fly zone and enforce it. This is now the world's war, and has reached far beyond the politics internal to Russia and Ukraine.

ericd 5y ago
Yeah no, it would be bananas to engage Russia directly. We engaged in plenty of proxy wars during the Cold War, we never went direct.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > We engaged in plenty of proxy wars during the Cold War, we never went direct. In fact, we went direct fairly regularly, but only in circumstances where we (or they, or, in a few cases both) maintained superficial (not always really plausible, as both sides would often protect the fiction to avoid escalation) deniability. That is why, for instance, radio intercepts of North Korean pilots in the Korean War showed they tended to switch from Korean to Russian a lot under stress.
  - ericd 5y ago
    Haha interesting! I thought that we usually stopped at providing weapons, training, etc. I wonder if there’s something similar possible here.