5 ms·

If they were to spring a leak then it would be impossible to hide their activity from the population at home, so my guess is that's something they would try to

by dgemm 5y ago

If they were to spring a leak then it would be impossible to hide their activity from the population at home, so my guess is that's something they would try to avoid.

wlll 5y ago
That almost seems irellevant, even if Putin cared what people think (I don't think he does for the most part), he controls almost all of the media in the country. He can just tell people "Ukraine did it" and they can believe him or not, it doesn't really matter.
- lumost 5y ago
  A large ecological disaster from an open air uncontrolled nuclear power plant fire would be a European wide concern. The results could be considered a WMD.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > results could be considered a WMD What rubbish. This looks like Putin found a way to tactically deploy dirty nukes within the West’s red lines.
    - adventured 5y ago
      I expect if the invasion is protracted, Putin will at a minimum detonate a demonstration nuke. The downside consequences for Russia are modest at this point, and it'll be very terrifying to the people of Ukraine (and the world generally).
      - mulmen 5y ago
        There is no “demonstration nuke”. If Putin sets off a nuke it’s doomsday. The time between Russia being the second country to use nuclear weapons and our current concept of countries becoming totally irrelevant would be measured in minutes. Having said this he might still do it.
        ericd 5y ago
        The rest of the world isn’t going to say “whelp, I guess it’s time to kick off the extinction of our species” and do a full set of city strikes over a tactical nuke being used. That would be absurd.
        twaw 5y ago
        It looks like you are using salami tactics. Salami tactics works in both ways. You say that nobody will went crazy when a tactic nuke will be used against RF army. Right? Can you draw the line, please? When this war between two nuclear states will be nuclear, if even use of tactical nuke is not enough for you?
        ericd 5y ago
        I’m just saying that the US isn’t going to engage in a massive species-ending strike over the Russians using a tactical nuke in a conflict with a non-NATO country. No idea what salami tactics means.
        mulmen 5y ago
        Even total nuclear war (probably) wouldn't end the species. Just civilization as we know it.
        lumost 5y ago
        The idea is that a tactical nuke requires at a minimum proportionate response. The history of large attacks is that the response is always disproportionate. A German plane accidentally drops their bombs on London leads to a dedicated air raid on berlin leads to the blitz. A tactical nuke used against Kharkiv would certainly lead to either a Ukrainian dirty bomb strike against Moscow and or a NATO intervention. Why would Russia stop at one nuke when fighting NATO? For each tactical nuke against NATO you would expect at least one in return, or worse a megaton +x% for megaton exchange. This spirals into full nuclear war very quickly once one side believes that they are going to lose without strategic weapons, or one side believes they have been or will be the victim of a strategic attack. Speaking of, how long until the country with all of the old Soviet weapons facilities decides to re-enter the nuclear club?
      - TMWNN 5y ago
        >I expect if the invasion is protracted, Putin will at a minimum detonate a demonstration nuke. Given the widespread reports during this war of Russian equipment in poor condition, I've been thinking about this possibility for a while: * Putin fires tactical atomic weapon at some empty plot of Ukrainian land, and announces it as a "demonstration" of Russian might. * The weapon is a dud. I'm not sure whether this outcome might not be worse in the long run, in terms of geopolitical stability, than if the weapon performs as expected!
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  The Russian government has already claimed that Ukraine is seeking nuclear weapons with US aid [0]. If it doesn't find a way to fit it's attack on, the fire at, and any resulting radiation release from the plant into that narrative with massaged details that make it both a heroic action by Russia and a dastardly one by Ukraine compounded by a Ukrainian propaganda effort to blame it on Russia...well, they aren't following the propaganda style they have been this whole invasion. [0] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukraine-isnt-working-on-nuclear-weapons-u-n-official-says-in-rebuke-to-russia-11646242303 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukrain...
QuarterReptile 5y ago
Elevated radiation levels originating from a significant distance away from measurement are not going to be the thing that breaks through the fog of Russian propaganda, for anyone who's along for that ride.

by dgemm 5y ago

If they were to spring a leak then it would be impossible to hide their activity from the population at home, so my guess is that's something they would try to avoid.

wlll 5y ago

That almost seems irellevant, even if Putin cared what people think (I don't think he does for the most part), he controls almost all of the media in the country. He can just tell people "Ukraine did it" and they can believe him or not, it doesn't really matter.

lumost 5y ago
A large ecological disaster from an open air uncontrolled nuclear power plant fire would be a European wide concern. The results could be considered a WMD.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > results could be considered a WMD What rubbish. This looks like Putin found a way to tactically deploy dirty nukes within the West’s red lines.
  - adventured 5y ago
    I expect if the invasion is protracted, Putin will at a minimum detonate a demonstration nuke. The downside consequences for Russia are modest at this point, and it'll be very terrifying to the people of Ukraine (and the world generally).
    - mulmen 5y ago
      There is no “demonstration nuke”. If Putin sets off a nuke it’s doomsday. The time between Russia being the second country to use nuclear weapons and our current concept of countries becoming totally irrelevant would be measured in minutes. Having said this he might still do it.
      - ericd 5y ago
        The rest of the world isn’t going to say “whelp, I guess it’s time to kick off the extinction of our species” and do a full set of city strikes over a tactical nuke being used. That would be absurd.
        twaw 5y ago
        It looks like you are using salami tactics. Salami tactics works in both ways. You say that nobody will went crazy when a tactic nuke will be used against RF army. Right? Can you draw the line, please? When this war between two nuclear states will be nuclear, if even use of tactical nuke is not enough for you?
        ericd 5y ago
        I’m just saying that the US isn’t going to engage in a massive species-ending strike over the Russians using a tactical nuke in a conflict with a non-NATO country. No idea what salami tactics means.
        mulmen 5y ago
        Even total nuclear war (probably) wouldn't end the species. Just civilization as we know it.
        lumost 5y ago
        The idea is that a tactical nuke requires at a minimum proportionate response. The history of large attacks is that the response is always disproportionate. A German plane accidentally drops their bombs on London leads to a dedicated air raid on berlin leads to the blitz. A tactical nuke used against Kharkiv would certainly lead to either a Ukrainian dirty bomb strike against Moscow and or a NATO intervention. Why would Russia stop at one nuke when fighting NATO? For each tactical nuke against NATO you would expect at least one in return, or worse a megaton +x% for megaton exchange. This spirals into full nuclear war very quickly once one side believes that they are going to lose without strategic weapons, or one side believes they have been or will be the victim of a strategic attack. Speaking of, how long until the country with all of the old Soviet weapons facilities decides to re-enter the nuclear club?
    - TMWNN 5y ago
      >I expect if the invasion is protracted, Putin will at a minimum detonate a demonstration nuke. Given the widespread reports during this war of Russian equipment in poor condition, I've been thinking about this possibility for a while: * Putin fires tactical atomic weapon at some empty plot of Ukrainian land, and announces it as a "demonstration" of Russian might. * The weapon is a dud. I'm not sure whether this outcome might not be worse in the long run, in terms of geopolitical stability, than if the weapon performs as expected!
dragonwriter 5y ago
The Russian government has already claimed that Ukraine is seeking nuclear weapons with US aid [0]. If it doesn't find a way to fit it's attack on, the fire at, and any resulting radiation release from the plant into that narrative with massaged details that make it both a heroic action by Russia and a dastardly one by Ukraine compounded by a Ukrainian propaganda effort to blame it on Russia...well, they aren't following the propaganda style they have been this whole invasion. [0] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukraine-isnt-working-on-nuclear-weapons-u-n-official-says-in-rebuke-to-russia-11646242303 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukrain...

QuarterReptile 5y ago

Elevated radiation levels originating from a significant distance away from measurement are not going to be the thing that breaks through the fog of Russian propaganda, for anyone who's along for that ride.