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Weird that the author mentions international support and the importance of inaccessible bases to Mao, but doesn't mention the ability of the Taliban or Viet Con

Weird that the author mentions international support and the importance of inaccessible bases to Mao, but doesn't mention the ability of the Taliban or Viet Cong to hide in neighboring countries where conventional military force can't be applied. I expect that will also be crucial in Ukraine.

paxys 5y ago
Borders of this war are drastically in Russia's favor. They control the entire north (Belarus), east (Russia) and south (Crimea and Black Sea). Ukraine could potentially use their western borders with friendly countries to their advantage, but those are long ways away from the key population centers of the country. After a strike in, say, Kyiv, they will have to drive 7+ hours to hide in Poland.
- Retric 5y ago
  Friendly borders do a lot even if their not close. Just having a safe place to decompress between fighting makes a huge difference. Militaries need to be on constant alert where resistance forces can train and plain in safety. It also takes a lot of manpower to defend a border and those people can’t then be directly useful in the fighting. Russia could setup barricades, minefields etc, but that stuff take time, effort and resources to setup.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > Borders of this war are drastically in Russia's favor. They control the entire north (Belarus), east (Russia) and south (Crimea and Black Sea). Ukraine could potentially use their western borders with friendly countries to their advantage, but those are long ways away from the key population centers of the country. After a strike in, say, Kyiv, they will have to drive 7+ hours to hide in Poland. But if the population is friendly to the insurgents, couldn't they hide there after an operation? It seems like the border with an insurgent-friendly country would be mainly useful for supply, training, etc. IIRC, the Taliban had a kind of "fighting season" where their fighters would migrate into Afghanistan from Pakistan, then return months later. It wasn't hit and run from border outposts.
  - ignoramous 5y ago
    That's not a scenario you'd want in Europe. Violent struggles often turn into multiple separatist movements.
    - karatinversion 5y ago
      None of this is what we wanted in Europe.
  - Fnoord 5y ago
    Romania is south as well.
- Cthulhu_ 5y ago
  And that's also assuming that e.g. Poland would allow Ukranian soldiers to cross the border; Poland is a NATO country, and NATO allowing non-NATO soldiers in can be considered a provocation and escalation by Russia. I mean if it wasn't for Russia having and threatening with nukes I would applaud NATO getting involved; the various air forces of NATO countries would make quick work of the very exposed supply lines of the Russian invaders. So far, Russia has not shown much military dominance or strategy. But it can't be allowed to escalate due to the threat of nukes.
  - grey-area 5y ago
    The same logic would allow Putin to take all of Europe. If not now, when?
    - tim333 5y ago
      Well it's different for the EU/NATO bits - NATO would certainly fight if he went into Poland. Not so sure about Moldova say.
      - vertis 5y ago
        What about Finland and Sweden? What about if it was just the island of Gotland, and not an all out invasion. Edit: And how much will you give up to avoid a Nuclear War. Assuming the other side is not rational and can't be trusted to protect their existence in a MAD scenario. Maybe Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not worth "the world being destroyed". Where does it stop.
        georgeecollins 5y ago
        Finland and Sweden haven't asked to be in NATO. It was clear that Germany was not even willing to send defensive weapons to Ukraine. So I don't think the NATO countries were ready to fight over Ukraine, including the US. I don't know if Germany would go to war to protect Gotland, but if Swedes think it could happen maybe they should join NATO? That would clarify the situation one way or another.
- hammock 5y ago
  There are separatists in Moldova to the south as well
nsajko 5y ago
If Ukraine's NATO member neighbors aren't sending their own armies to attack Putin or defend Ukraine, why do you think a neighboring country would let the Ukrainian military attack from their soil? I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but it's far from clear this is an option.
- petesergeant 5y ago
  Attack from, no. R&R and re-supply from, I would guess it’s already happening
zabzonk 5y ago
> Viet Cong to hide in neighboring countries where conventional military force can't be applied. Oh yes it can be: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arc_Light#Operations_in_Laos_and_Cambodia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arc_Light#Operations...
- RealityVoid 5y ago
  I'm sorry, but what do you think would be the consequence of Russia bombing targets in... Romania, let's say. Considering the US has air defense in the area, I doubth they even could. The situation is hardly comparable.
  - gip 5y ago
    That is true, bombing targets in a NATO country wouldn't work. On the other hand Russia could probably try to completely seal that border. It's not easy to do and will take years, but can be done.
    - kmonsen 5y ago
      No. Ukraine has a giant border with Poland. Russia do not have the troops to close it down. They don’t have the troops to counter civilian resistance either. I read an article about hostile army : civilian population ratios in recent conflicts. Russia is off by an order of magnitude and Ukraine has a history almost as bad as Afghanistan. Russia really thought they would be greeted as liberators.
      - ignoramous 5y ago
        > Russia really thought they would be greeted as liberators. Even if they did, they won't now. And that only means more bad news as then they wouldn't mind a Syria in their backyard as the only thing that's worse than that, in their eyes, is NATO in their backyard. > ...history almost as bad as Afghanistan. I don't know what history you are alluding to, but after advent of Islam in Central Asia, Afghanistan was a dominant power in the region, with its rule firmly established in South Asia for a century or two. Afghanistan's recent "bad history" is courtesy of Soviet and American invasions.
thaumasiotes 5y ago
> Weird that the author mentions international support and the importance of inaccessible bases to Mao, but doesn't mention the ability of the Taliban or Viet Cong to hide in neighboring countries That is mentioned explicitly: >> in all of these cases, outside support, particularly the provision of weapons and safe bases, was crucial for the success of the protracted war strategy

paxys 5y ago

Borders of this war are drastically in Russia's favor. They control the entire north (Belarus), east (Russia) and south (Crimea and Black Sea). Ukraine could potentially use their western borders with friendly countries to their advantage, but those are long ways away from the key population centers of the country. After a strike in, say, Kyiv, they will have to drive 7+ hours to hide in Poland.

Retric 5y ago
Friendly borders do a lot even if their not close. Just having a safe place to decompress between fighting makes a huge difference. Militaries need to be on constant alert where resistance forces can train and plain in safety. It also takes a lot of manpower to defend a border and those people can’t then be directly useful in the fighting. Russia could setup barricades, minefields etc, but that stuff take time, effort and resources to setup.
tablespoon 5y ago
> Borders of this war are drastically in Russia's favor. They control the entire north (Belarus), east (Russia) and south (Crimea and Black Sea). Ukraine could potentially use their western borders with friendly countries to their advantage, but those are long ways away from the key population centers of the country. After a strike in, say, Kyiv, they will have to drive 7+ hours to hide in Poland. But if the population is friendly to the insurgents, couldn't they hide there after an operation? It seems like the border with an insurgent-friendly country would be mainly useful for supply, training, etc. IIRC, the Taliban had a kind of "fighting season" where their fighters would migrate into Afghanistan from Pakistan, then return months later. It wasn't hit and run from border outposts.
- ignoramous 5y ago
  That's not a scenario you'd want in Europe. Violent struggles often turn into multiple separatist movements.
  - karatinversion 5y ago
    None of this is what we wanted in Europe.
- Fnoord 5y ago
  Romania is south as well.
Cthulhu_ 5y ago
And that's also assuming that e.g. Poland would allow Ukranian soldiers to cross the border; Poland is a NATO country, and NATO allowing non-NATO soldiers in can be considered a provocation and escalation by Russia. I mean if it wasn't for Russia having and threatening with nukes I would applaud NATO getting involved; the various air forces of NATO countries would make quick work of the very exposed supply lines of the Russian invaders. So far, Russia has not shown much military dominance or strategy. But it can't be allowed to escalate due to the threat of nukes.
- grey-area 5y ago
  The same logic would allow Putin to take all of Europe. If not now, when?
  - tim333 5y ago
    Well it's different for the EU/NATO bits - NATO would certainly fight if he went into Poland. Not so sure about Moldova say.
    - vertis 5y ago
      What about Finland and Sweden? What about if it was just the island of Gotland, and not an all out invasion. Edit: And how much will you give up to avoid a Nuclear War. Assuming the other side is not rational and can't be trusted to protect their existence in a MAD scenario. Maybe Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not worth "the world being destroyed". Where does it stop.
      - georgeecollins 5y ago
        Finland and Sweden haven't asked to be in NATO. It was clear that Germany was not even willing to send defensive weapons to Ukraine. So I don't think the NATO countries were ready to fight over Ukraine, including the US. I don't know if Germany would go to war to protect Gotland, but if Swedes think it could happen maybe they should join NATO? That would clarify the situation one way or another.
hammock 5y ago
There are separatists in Moldova to the south as well

nsajko 5y ago

If Ukraine's NATO member neighbors aren't sending their own armies to attack Putin or defend Ukraine, why do you think a neighboring country would let the Ukrainian military attack from their soil? I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but it's far from clear this is an option.

petesergeant 5y ago
Attack from, no. R&R and re-supply from, I would guess it’s already happening

zabzonk 5y ago

> Viet Cong to hide in neighboring countries where conventional military force can't be applied. Oh yes it can be: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arc_Light#Operations_in_Laos_and_Cambodia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arc_Light#Operations...

RealityVoid 5y ago
I'm sorry, but what do you think would be the consequence of Russia bombing targets in... Romania, let's say. Considering the US has air defense in the area, I doubth they even could. The situation is hardly comparable.
- gip 5y ago
  That is true, bombing targets in a NATO country wouldn't work. On the other hand Russia could probably try to completely seal that border. It's not easy to do and will take years, but can be done.
  - kmonsen 5y ago
    No. Ukraine has a giant border with Poland. Russia do not have the troops to close it down. They don’t have the troops to counter civilian resistance either. I read an article about hostile army : civilian population ratios in recent conflicts. Russia is off by an order of magnitude and Ukraine has a history almost as bad as Afghanistan. Russia really thought they would be greeted as liberators.
    - ignoramous 5y ago
      > Russia really thought they would be greeted as liberators. Even if they did, they won't now. And that only means more bad news as then they wouldn't mind a Syria in their backyard as the only thing that's worse than that, in their eyes, is NATO in their backyard. > ...history almost as bad as Afghanistan. I don't know what history you are alluding to, but after advent of Islam in Central Asia, Afghanistan was a dominant power in the region, with its rule firmly established in South Asia for a century or two. Afghanistan's recent "bad history" is courtesy of Soviet and American invasions.

thaumasiotes 5y ago

> Weird that the author mentions international support and the importance of inaccessible bases to Mao, but doesn't mention the ability of the Taliban or Viet Cong to hide in neighboring countries That is mentioned explicitly: >> in all of these cases, outside support, particularly the provision of weapons and safe bases, was crucial for the success of the protracted war strategy